Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Research Articles

Low-carbon measures for Fiji's land transport energy system

Road transport in Fiji is fully dependent on petroleum fuels. This study is a first for Fiji where fuel demand for land transport is studied under some clean transportation strategies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) tool is used with 2016 as the base year and 2040 as the end year. In 2016, approximately 337 million litres of fuel was used with an associated GHG emission of around 864 Gg of CO2e, which increases to 1158.4 Gg by 2040 in Business as usual (BAU) scenario. Several measures are explored to reduce the fuel consumption in the land transport sector in Fiji.

Costs and benefits of renewable energy development in China's power industry

Abstract China's power sector has become the largest contributor to China's carbon emissions because of its coal-dominated power structure. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions and, therefore, a series of targets for renewable electricity generation have been put forward in national plans. However, how these targets will be reached is unclear. This paper uses a Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) model to explore the optimum development path of China's power sector from 2015 to 2050, taking into consideration the impacts of the renewable energy targets. Three scenarios are designed to examine the costs and benefits of developing renewable energy and improving the technologies for renewable power generation, comprising a base scenario, a renewable energy policy scenario and a technological progress scenario. The results show that the power generation cost would increase by at least 2.31 trillion RMB and that CO2 emissions would be reduced by 35.8 billion tonnes during 2015–2050 if power generation follows current planning. Furthermore, every 1% increase in the capacity factors of renewable electricity would on average result in the cumulative CO2 emissions decreased by 979 million tonnes and average CO2 abatement cost decreased by 5.56 RMB/tCO2 during 2015–2050. Based on this study, several policy implications are proposed for the development of power sector in China. Firstly, government may reconsider the current planning for gas-fired power and nuclear power to reach low-carbon electricity generation. Secondly, adjusting the carbon price can offset the additional cost of renewable electricity generation. Thirdly, promoting advanced technologies to match renewable electricity generation can obtain greater economic and environmental benefits. Finally, from the perspective of development potential, reducing the costs of solar power would be the emphasis at this stage.

Energy–water nexus analysis in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: Case of electricity sector

Water shortage can constrain energy development and use, and climate change partially caused by energy consumption can profoundly affect the quantity and distribution of water resources worldwide. The chronic water shortage in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China is likely to worsen under the impact of global climate change. The coal-dominated electricity sector will continuously have a high water demand. This reality will intensify the dilemma between water supply and power generation. This paper presents an adaptability analysis of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in 2013–2030 based on the current situation. Water evaluation and planning and long-range energy alternative planning systems are used to simulate changes in water and energy systems, respectively, and the impacts on the electricity sector under two climate scenarios and three development scenarios. On this basis, this study explores the potential of power structure adjustment and technological advancement in easing baseline water stress and promoting sustainable development in the region. Findings show that the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is under high water stress, which will be aggravated under global climate change. In representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the baseline water stress of the region in 2017–2030 averages 259% and 494%, and the annual unmet water demand reaches 15.3 and 21.1 billion m3, respectively. In the renewable energy and advanced technology scenarios, the regional water savings are expected to reach 200–250 million m3 by 2030. The unmet water demand of power generation can be alleviated to some extent, but the water shortage trend cannot be reversed. Therefore, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region should develop an overall plan and layout of energy and water resources and adopt a combination of policy instruments to support the expansion of renewable energy or promote advanced power generation technologies.

Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050

With the accelerating process of urbanization, energy consumption and emissions of the transport sector in China have increased rapidly. In this paper, we employed the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) model to estimate the energy consumption, CO2 (carbon dioxide) and air pollutant emissions of the transport sector between 2010 and 2050 under four scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Efficiency Improvement (EEI), Transport Mode Optimization (TMO), and Comprehensive Policy (CP). Furthermore, the intake fraction method was adopted to assess the health benefits of reducing pollutant emissions. The results showed that energy consumption will reach 509–1284 Mtce under the different scenarios by 2050. The emissions of CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOX) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) will be 2601, 173, 3.4, 24.0, 0.94 and 0.78 Mt, respectively, under the BAU scenario in 2050. Regarding health benefits, economic losses caused by mortality will be reduced by 47, 40 and 72 billion USD in 2050 under the EEI, TMO and CP scenarios, respectively, compared to those under the BAU scenario. Among the health outcomes associated with PM10, acute bronchitis exhibits the worst outcome. Considering health impacts, policy implications are suggested to reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions.

Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions

The energy sector of Ethiopia continues to largely rely on traditional biomass energy due to limited access to modern energy sources to meet growing demand. Long-term energy demand forecasting is essential to guide the country's plans to expand the energy supply system. This study provides a general overview of Ethiopia's current energy demand and forecasts sector-wise energy demand out to 2030 for alternative policy scenarios using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The reference scenario assumes a continuation of recent energy consumption trends and takes account of current energy and economic dynamics. Three alternative scenarios on improved cookstoves, efficient lighting, and universal electrification scenario were identified as key priorities of the government of Ethiopia and modeled. Results from the model can assist energy planners in ensuring that the country's capacity for supply meets projected growth in demand for energy. They also shed light on the tradeoffs implicit in alternative policy priorities and investments in terms of economic development and environmental sustainability. Most importantly, the results suggest that alternative investments can conserve energy, improve environmental sustainability, enhance energy equity and improve the country's development indicators.

Demand Simulation for Water, Food Irrigation, and Energy from Micro Hydro Power Plant in Sungai Bayang, Bayang Utara, Pesisir Selatan West Sumatra

Clean water or fresh water, food and energy are basic human needs. The three basic needs are dependent to one another. The relationship between the three is called the "The nexus of Water, Energy, and Food". It requires good governance on watershed which will be implemented for example to manage water resources to fulfil demand of clean or drinking water, irrigation in food area and energy sources in hydro power plant. This study conducted analysis and simulation to prepare projection of electricity produced by Micro hydro Power Plant (MHP) It integrates a climate change scenarios to forecast its influence on electricity demand and response of river. In addition, the study also presented projections of influence on irrigated food production scenario in irrigation for rice paddy fields. Projection of The MHP electricity and the water demand including for the food sector is conducted by using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) software, while electricity demand forecast is conducted by applying the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) software. The case studies in this study conducted in river flows Bayang’s River. On the river there are three operating MHPs: The Muaro Aie MHP (ity30 kW of installed capac), The Koto Ranah MHP (30 kW) and The Pancuang Taba MHP (40 kW). The LEAP simulation projected electricity demand for Pesisir Selatan until 2025. Demand for South Pesisir Regency up to 2025 is predicted to reach 226.4 GWh with growth of 11.2% per year in BAU scenario, while reach 113.7 GWh with a 5% annual growth in efficiency scenario. The WEAP provided projected electricity production of MHP, basic water needs and irrigation needs for paddy fields in District IV Nagari Bayang Utara until 2025. The MHP electricity production in final year of projection with BAU scenario reaches 0.88 GWh, while with a climate change scenario of 0.63 GWh. The electricity demand fulfilled by MHP is predicted to be 0.39% in the BAU scenario, 0.28% in climate change scenarios, and 0.55% in the electricity savings scenario. Of the three MHP, the MHP Pancuang Taba is the most vulnerable to climate change, while MHP Koto Ranah shows relatively lower fluctuation. The highest staple water requirement is for Pancuang Taba which is 3643.4 thousand m3. The growth of staple water needs until 2025 tends to be constant. and most rice irrigation needs are in agriculture 2 of 976 thousand m3. The growth of irrigation needs of Bayang watershed until 2025 tends to be constant. Most irrigation needs for paddy fields are in irrigation area of “Agriculture 2” reaching 976,000 m3. The growth of irrigation needs in Bayang watershed tends to be constant.

Application of LEAP model on long-term electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia, period 2010-2025

Electricity demand forecasting is an important part in energy management especially in electricity planning. Indonesia is a large country with a pattern of electricity consumption which continues to increase, therefor need to forecasting electricity demand in order to avoid unbalance demand and supply or deficit energy. LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) as a tool energy model and Indonesia as a case study. Basically, electricity demand is influenced by population, economy and electricity intensity. The purpose of this study is to provide understanding and application of electricity demand forecasting by using LEAP. The base year is 2010 and end year projection is 2025. The scenarios of simulated model consist of two scenarios. They are Business as Usual (BAU) and Government policy scenario. Results of both scenarios indicate that end year electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia increased more than two fold compared to base year.

Suggestion a Novel Scenario in Iran Renewable Energy Planning Based on Modified ANN Method

In this study end-users energy consumption of Iran are predicted using ANN (artificial neural network) by historical data and socio-economic parameters (1990-2013) up to 2030 horizon. Iran energy balances are forecasted by bottom up analysis using LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning). On other hand solar energy promotion policies around the world, Iran policies and its solar energy potentials are investigated. Novel policy for Iran photovoltaic systems promotion are proposed and impact of this scenario implementation evaluated on Iran energy balance. Result show 750 MBOE (million barrel of oil equivalents) will be saved and 320 million metric tons co2 equivalent emission reduced up to 2030.

Development of a Framework for the Assessment of Energy Demand-Based Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options for the Agriculture Sector

Abstract. This study assesses greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options for the agriculture sector. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used to develop a framework to assess future trends in energy demand and associated GHG emissions for the agriculture sector and to assess various GHG mitigation options associated with energy consumption. A business-as-usual (reference) scenario and 32 GHG mitigation scenarios were developed for the years 2009-2050 using the LEAP model. A case study for Alberta, Canada, was conducted. In the model, GHG mitigation scenarios were developed for the energy demand side (e.g., farm machines, farm transportation, lighting, and ventilation) based on efficiency improvements and the use of renewable energy. The mitigation scenarios were divided into two planning horizons based on technology penetration: slow penetration (2009-2050) and fast penetration (2009-2030). For each planning horizon, 16 scenarios were assessed. Of all farm machines, efficient diesel tractors have the highest GHG mitigation potential: 12.35 MT of CO2 equivalent by 2050 and 4.7 MT of CO2 equivalent by 2030. In addition, GHG abatement cost curves show that biodiesel tractors and efficient diesel tractors have the highest GHG mitigation potential, with attractive abatement costs of -$62 and -$11 tonne-1 of CO2 mitigated by 2050, respectively. Keywords: Abatement cost, Agriculture sector, Energy efficiency, GHG mitigation, LEAP model.

Statistical and Econometric Estimation of Current and Projected Energy Utilization in Pakistan

Energy management is a vital element for sustainable development which defines the economic growth of a country. The world energy demand is growing rapidly due to the increasing population and industrial development. Energy consumption in Pakistan primarily depends upon the conventional fuels which have adverse effects on economy due to its high import rate and strong relation with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP). This paper aims to elucidate the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption of Pakistan. In order to maintain the required level of economic growth rate, home extracted non-conventional fuels should be considered rather than the imports of oils with proper energy managing policies. Pakistan suffers 2 – 3% GDP loss annually due to the mismanagement of energy resource. In this research, Long-Range Energy Alternative planning system (LEAP) modeling tool has been adopted using various scenarios to evaluate energy demand till year 2045. This research also postulates and uncovers the innovative horizons for the energy planners and policymakers to accomplish the prevalent energy demands in coming years. Some recommendations are also put forward along with need of future research.

Strategy on China's regional coal consumption control: A case study of Shandong province

Controlling coal consumption has become one of the critical energy and environmental measures in China, and Shandong province is the key area of coal consumption control. This study is based on three targets, including air quality improvement, water savings, and energy conservation and emissions reduction, and then adopts the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) model to predict Shandong's total coal consumption and its emissions reduction in 2020. Furthermore, it measures the feasibility and concrete path to realize the coal reduction target from three aspects – coal reduction, clean coal utilization and coal substitution. Finally, the quota allocation method is used to breakdown the coal reduction target into various cities and major industries. The results indicate that improving air quality is the primary reason for coal consumption control; coal reduction, clean coal utilization and coal substitution can reduce 36.3, 3.4 and 37.76 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) respectively, thus revealing the possibility of realizing the target of reducing 20 million tce in 2020 compared to 2012. The quota breakdown scheme shows that four cities (Binzhou, Jining, Linyi and Zibo) and three industries (production and supply of electricity and heat industry, coal chemical industry, and ferrous metal smelting and calendaring industry) are the major focus for coal consumption control in Shandong. This study provides valuable suggestions to facilitate the control of coal consumption.

GHG Mitigation in Power Sector: Analyzes of Renewable Energy Potential for Thailand’s NDC Roadmap in 2030

Thailand has submitted the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Conventional on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 percent from the business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030. According to the Thailand’s Power Development Plant (PDP2015) renewable energy (RE) is one of the key aspects of energy related environmental planning for Thailand. It plays an important role in GHG mitigation. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the potential of RE to reduce GHG emissions for Thailand’s NDC roadmap in the power sector compared to the target of Thailand’s PDP2015 through the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The LEAP is employed to analyze future energy demand and emissions in the long-term planning during 2010-2030. The mitigation scenario offers sustainable potential of RE such as solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, hydropower, MSW and biogas. Four mitigation scenarios under RE were modeled. Mitigation 1 follows the PDP2015 and has 3 scenario options which are PDP1a (100% RE share in 2030), PDP1b (50% RE share in 2030) and PDP1c (25% RE share in 2030). Thailand’s NDC plan is applied in mitigation 2 (NDC2) with the reduction of GHG emissions by 20% in 2030 when compared to BAU. Results show that, in the BAU scenario electricity demand will increase to 26,163 ktoe and GHG emissions will increase to 175,118 kt-CO2eq in 2030. By adopting mitigation, total GHG emissions in 2030 can be mitigated by 41.69% in PDP1a, 23.75% in PDP1b, 13.60% in NDC2 and 10.40% in PDP1c when compared to the BAU. This result implies that Thailand have high potential to reduce GHG emissions by using RE and can achieve Thailand’s NDC target in 2030, even if they meet only a half of its RE target.

CO2 Mitigation in Residential Sector in Indonesia and Thailand: Potential of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

This paper presents an analysis of CO2 mitigation potential of renewable energy and energy efficiency in the residential sector in Indonesia and Thailand. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model was used to analyze future energy demand, energy consumption and CO2 emissions during 2010-2050. This study applied demand side management (DSM) options to reduce CO2 emission in the residential sector by implementing renewable energy and energy efficiency measures in lighting, cooking, and cooling devices. In this analysis, five mitigation actions were selected, called Sustainable Solar System (Solar), Sustainable Biogas System (Biogas), Efficient Lighting Devices (Lighting), Efficient Cooling Devices (Cooling), and Efficient Cooking Stove (Cooking) scenarios. Results show that in 2050 the Cooling scenario shows the highest energy saving of 22.99% when compared with the BAU. In the BAU, energy demand and emission in Indonesian residential sector will be 73,578 ktoe and 68,219 kt-CO2eq in 2050, respectively. The highest CO2 mitigation of 45,208 kt-CO2eq, accounted for 33.73% of emissions in the BAU, will be achieved in the Cooling and Lighting scenarios. In Thailand’s residential sector, the Cooling scenario shows the highest energy saving of 6.04% in 2050 when compared with the BAU. In the BAU scenario in Thailand’s residential sector, energy demand and CO2 emissions will be about 21,916 ktoe and 26,607 kt-CO2eq in 2050, respectively. The highest CO2 mitigation potential of 23,573 kt-CO2eq will be achieved in the Biogas scenario, CO2 reduction will be 11.42% of emissions in the BAU. The Lighting scenario shows the lowest potential of CO2 mitigation of 25,221 kt-CO2eq. The CO2 reduction will be 5.21% of emissions in the BAU.

Long-term CO2 Emission Reduction from Renewable Energy in Power Sector: The case of Thailand in 2050

This paper presents CO2 mitigation potential in the power sector of Thailand regarding to the Power Development Plan (PDP 2015) and Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP 2015). Renewable energy and advanced technology have the potential to play an important role in providing clean energy. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model is used to analyze future electricity demand, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions reduction in the long term planning during 2010-2050. Regarding to those plans, implementations of renewable energy and advanced technology are proposed for mitigation options. The mitigation scenarios offer sustainable potential of renewable technologies and advanced technologies such as solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, hydropower, hydrogen fuel cell, tidal, geothermal and fossil-fuel power plants with carbon capture storage (CCS). Four mitigation scenarios are modeled along with the BAU scenario. The Mitigation 1 (MIT01) scenario is the base-case mitigation scenario based on the target of PDP2015, which target of renewable energy is 19,634 MW in 2036. In the Mitigation 2 (MIT02) scenario, the technologies in the MIT01 plus new technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell, tidal and geothermal are implemented. Clean fossil fuel technologies with CCS, for example natural gas and coal technologies, are applied in the Mitigation 3 (MIT03) scenario. In the Mitigation 4 (MIT04) scenario as the peak CO2 scenario. Results show that, in the BAU scenario, electricity demand and CO2 emissions from the power sector will increase to 52,770 ktoe and 345,959 kt-CO2eq, respectively in 2050. By adopting mitigation options, total CO2 emissions in 2050 can be mitigated by 69.66% in MIT04, following by 50.83% in MIT02, 47.22% in MIT03, and 41.71% in MIT01 when compared to the BAU scenario. Moreover, regarding to the MIT04, Thailand can meet its peak CO2 emission by 2036.

Impact of Transportation Restructuring on Thailand Energy Outlook

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of the transportation restructuring via three possible energy scenarios; the reference scenario (REF), the undone scenario, and the achievement scenario. The REF scenario was developed based on the previous policy targets (up to the year 2012) with systematic planning and implementation. In the second scenario, the projection was demonstrated under the condition that the policy targets are delay or unsuccessful. Lastly, the achievement scenario was also analyzed under the condition that all policy targets and new policies suggested by the authors are achieved. An energy accounting model named Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system or LEAP [1] is used to demonstrate an analysis of Thailand’s energy situation and its forecasts from 2013 to 2035, based on 2012 database as the reference year. The analysis was accumulated from various types of fuel and energy supplies, incorporating the trend of energy development in Thailand based on information available from several reliable sources, including national and international research studies. In the REF scenario, the electricity consumption in all sectors expands largely, imported or purchased electricity from the neighboring countries will gradually increase. The transport and the industrial sectors remain to be most energy-intensive users. The energy efficiency improvement in the transport sector will reduce 34% in final energy demand between the Achievement Scenario and Undone Scenario. The national policy directs on three aspects; 1) demand side management, 2) transportation infrastructure, and 3) automotive technology and renewable energy. The results clearly indicate that the greenhouse gas emission can be reduced. Two most effective mitigation options are the demand side management and the transportation infrastructure development.

Assessment of renewable energy and energy efficiency plans in Thailand’s industrial sector

The industrial sector is one of the main energy consuming sector in Thailand, and accounted for 36.2% of total energy consumption in 2013. The increase of population and economic growth affected energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thailand has the long-term climate plans related to energy saving and GHG mitigation in the industrial sector namely; Energy Efficiency Plan 2015 (EEP2015) and Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015 (AEDP2015). Both plans have the same periods and end at 2036. This paper analyzes the changes in GHG emissions during 2005-2036. Energy demand depends on population, gross domestic product, and fuel prices. The GHG mitigation can be evaluated by using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) under various scenarios. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario can be expressed as a frozen-scenario where new technology deployment and energy efficiency improvement are excluded. However, mitigation (MIT) scenarios are introduced by using the existing measures in the EEP2015 (MIT_EE scenario) and AEDP2015 (MIT_RE scenario). In this study, Thailand’s industries are categorized into eleven categories: food and beverage, textile, wood and furniture, paper and pulp, chemical, nonmetallic, basic metal, fabricated metal, construction, mining, and other industries. Fossil fuels are the main source of GHG emission accounted for 86% of total GHG emission in this industry. GHG emission will increase from 77.6 Mt-CO2eq in 2005 to 222.5 Mt-CO2eq in 2036. This study found that nonmetallic industry is the major GHG emitters. Full implementation of the EEP2015 and AEDP2015 can reduce GHG emissions by 36% and 9% in 2036 under MIT_EE and MIT_RE scenarios, respectively. Such GHG reductions can be achieved from the implementation of EEP2015, due to the financial incentives for energy performance achievement and enforcement of energy standards in the designated factories.

Long-term energy savings and GHG mitigations in Thailand’s building sector: impacts of energy efficiency plan

Thailand’s final energy consumption has been continuously increasing in the building sector. In terms of electricity consumption, this sector is the largest electricity consuming sector, and accounted for 57.9% of total electricity consumption in 2013. The fossil fuel consumption is dominated by liquefied petroleum gas within these sectors. Therefore, the fossil fuel and electricity demand satisfying the end-user requirement substantially affect the climate change especially the contribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Changes of GHG emissions depend not only on the economic development but also on population growth. Consequently, the aim of this paper is to evaluate and provide the long-term energy saving potential and the GHG mitigation by the implementation of Thailand’s Energy Efficiency Plan 2015 (EEP2015) during 2010-2036. The energy saving potential and environmental impacts are analyzed by using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP). The evaluation of energy saving potential and environmental impacts, the residential sector is divided into three areas namely; Greater Bangkok, municipal, and rural areas. The commercial sector is divided into eight building types including offices, hotels, hospitals, department stores, schools, hypermarkets, condominiums, and miscellaneous. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario is excluded the energy efficiency improvement. While, alternative (AL) scenario includes all existing measures in the EEP2015. In the residential sector, the highest energy consuming and GHG emission area is the rural area. In the commercial sector, offices contribute the highest GHG emissions. Energy demand and GHG emissions in both sectors will increase from 12.8 Mtoe and 43.2 Mt-CO2eq in 2005 to 39.6 Mtoe and 131.1 Mt-CO2eq in 2036 in the BAU scenario. The study discloses that EEP2015 can reduce the energy demand and the GHG emissions in both sectors by 19.1% and 31.2% in 2036, respectively.

Product Competitiveness of Upgrading Brown Coal (UBC) Process in Indonesia

The utilization of coal in Indonesia is in a running of improvement to become the biggest energy source. In 2025, 30% of total energy used is targeted as stated in Indonesian Government Regulation No. 79 of 2016. In Indonesia, the potential coal is mostly found in low and moderate calorific coal, it is classified as brown coal. Commonly, brown coal has high moisture content. Upgrading Brown Coal (UBC) process is a method for reducing the moisture content of brown coal by up to 80%. This study provides an overview of the UBC product competitiveness compared with brown coal. It will generate some technical recommendations on the current energy policies. Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and UBC product scenario were applied to show the difference in the amount of coal needed to generate electricity with the same capacity and the total of green house gas emission potential (GEP). The calculation was performed using the LEAP program (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system). The use of UBC product was potentially reduce the feed consumption by 50% compared to usual brown coal. Furthermore, the GEP calculated between the two scenarios was 1.141 billion kg CO 2 -eq/year as net saving. UBC process can be developed to improve the quality of brown coal, so that the UBC product will be much more competitive.

Estimated evolution of total pollutant gas emissions associated with vehicle activity in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre until 2030.

In recent years, the majority of economic sectors in Brazil have gone through processes of development and transformation. These processes have led to increases in environmental pollution of all kinds; air pollution being one of the most adverse. The Brazilian transportation sector, which heavily affects the air quality, experienced a significant increase in its vehicle fleet thus provoking larger emissions of pollutant gases, mainly in regions with high population density such as the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre (MRPA). Within this research, considering mainly the ozone precursor species and Carbon Monoxide and using the year 2001 as a base year, scenarios are obtained for vehicular emissions of pollutant gases in the MRPA until the year 2030. In addition, scenarios related to the evolution of the study region's vehicle fleet were estimated. The statistical tool LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) was used. The scenario analysis shows that the vehicle fleet will grow exponentially until 2030, considering that the Light Flex vehicles category will mainly contribute to this increase. It is also noted that vehicle emissions of CO, NOx, and THC decrease in the region. The decrease is caused mainly by the renewal of technology in new vehicles and the implementation of emission control programs created by the government.

Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions of urban passenger transport in the Internet era: A case study of Beijing

The transport sector accounts for a large proportion of energy demand and environmental emissions and is growing rapidly. The city is the hub of modern human life and the urban transport sector is developing fast. Specifically, in the Internet era, the development of public transport has brought new challenges and opportunities to urban passenger transport. Thus, research on the energy demand and environmental emissions of the urban transport sector is significant and timely. This paper takes Beijing’s public transport as an example and applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to analyze the energy demand and the main greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different scenarios during the period 2016–2030. The results show that: 1) if the government fails to guide the development of passenger transport appropriately, its energy demand and GHG emissions will rise rapidly and under the baseline scenario, the energy demand and emissions in 2030 are about 1.8 times those oft 2015; 2) the scenarios of developing public transport and transport sharing have a significant effect of energy saving and emission reduction and in 2030 the energy demand and GHG emissions falls by 25%–30% compared with that of the baseline scenario, so the combination of public transport and transport sharing is a wise choice for the low carbon development of the passenger transport sector in Beijing; 3) scenarios of easing road congestion and new-energy and clean-energy vehicle development have huge potential for energy saving and emission reduction, particularly the internal adjustment of the energy structure in the scenario of developing new-energy and clean-energy vehicles, which can greatly reduce the demand for traditional energy sources and reduce GHG emissions. This paper illustrates the development trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Beijing’s passenger transport sector under the scenarios of transport sharing development and traditional development in the Internet era, providing a basis for decision making.