Impact of Transportation Restructuring on Thailand Energy Outlook

Abstract

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of the transportation restructuring via three possible energy scenarios; the reference scenario (REF), the undone scenario, and the achievement scenario. The REF scenario was developed based on the previous policy targets (up to the year 2012) with systematic planning and implementation. In the second scenario, the projection was demonstrated under the condition that the policy targets are delay or unsuccessful. Lastly, the achievement scenario was also analyzed under the condition that all policy targets and new policies suggested by the authors are achieved. An energy accounting model named Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system or LEAP [1] is used to demonstrate an analysis of Thailand’s energy situation and its forecasts from 2013 to 2035, based on 2012 database as the reference year. The analysis was accumulated from various types of fuel and energy supplies, incorporating the trend of energy development in Thailand based on information available from several reliable sources, including national and international research studies. In the REF scenario, the electricity consumption in all sectors expands largely, imported or purchased electricity from the neighboring countries will gradually increase. The transport and the industrial sectors remain to be most energy-intensive users. The energy efficiency improvement in the transport sector will reduce 34% in final energy demand between the Achievement Scenario and Undone Scenario. The national policy directs on three aspects; 1) demand side management, 2) transportation infrastructure, and 3) automotive technology and renewable energy. The results clearly indicate that the greenhouse gas emission can be reduced. Two most effective mitigation options are the demand side management and the transportation infrastructure development.