Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Research Articles

IMPACT OF BIODIESEL AGROINDUSTRY ON THE ACHIEVEMENT OF NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY

The National Energy General Plan (RUEN) has set 11.6 million kiloliters of biodiesel production target in 2025. The determination of biodiesel production targets in RUEN is part of the objectives mandated in the National Energy Policy (KEN), which is to achieve energy security and independence. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of biodiesel agroindustry on the achievement of national energy security in 2025. The simulation conducted in this study uses Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software, which based on the accounting model. The model has run on Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, using four dimensions and 12 indicators of energy security in the context of biodiesel agroindustry. Model simulation results show a decreasing energy security trend in the period of 2022-2025, while the biodiesel production target, which was set at RUEN, cannot be achieved in 2025. This is mainly related to availability and affordability, which experienced a decline in the period. Further research needs to be done on the strategy of developing biodiesel agroindustry by considering scenarios of increasing production capacity and productivity as well as its impact on national energy security.

Energy Framework and Policy Direction Guidelines: Ghana 2017–2050 Perspectives

Ghana currently has no future energy strategic plan or framework for its generation system apart from the Energy Policy developed by the Energy Commission (EC). The EC based its research on the year 2000 parameters and estimated the energy system up to 2020, which cannot entirely address the current challenges facing the energy sector. The main objective of this paper is to develop an integrated energy planning (IEP) framework for Ghana as a guideline for addressing energy challenges, to promote energy efficiency in both demand and transmission, CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions reduction, and the utilization of renewable energy sources (RES). The methods used are content analysis, multiple case study, and procedure for IEP framework development. The primary computer tool used for the analysis and future energy projections was Long-range Energy Alternative Planning. The demand forecast was performed using key input parameters, including Gross Domestic Product, population change and urbanization. The overall results of this study suggest 40% of non-conventional renewable energy resources into the country's energy mix, proposed energy efficiency promotion in both demand and transmission, and the utilization of RES integration to save the nation up to about 40% CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions reduction. The paper recommends strategies to reduce losses in the transmission and distribution systems of Ghana. The paper again recommends the revenues accrued from the carbon tax for maintenance work on the existing equipment, and finally, an integrated energy planning framework was developed to serve as a roadmap for Ghana's energy sector up to the year 2050.

Scarce data and energy research: Estimating regional energy consumption in complex economies

Ecological concerns stemming from local energy usage generates more severe impacts on mountain economies, such as the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) — a region consisting of eight nation boundaries. However, little is known about the regional energy consumption pattern and trends in the HKH due to data scarcity making it difficult to devise effective evidence-based energy policy and planning strategies. The purpose of this study is to bridge the existing data deficit gap in the HKH region. We first estimate the HKH-specific energy consumption patterns in 2013 and then forecast the sectoral energy consumption of the region for the period 2013–2030 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system model. Our results show the dominance of residential sector (57%) and conventional biomass energy (50%) in the energy consumption landscape of the HKH. Industrial activities in HKH regions are still relatively underdeveloped compared to overall national averages. Energy consumption in the HKH region is around 5% of that in the HKH countries but is projected to increase from 5.89 million terajoule (TJ) in 2013 to 7.04 million TJ in 2030. The findings emphasise the importance of further investments and research in creating and periodically updating an HKH-specific energy database to overcome data-driven development challenges.

Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand Forecast (2018–2040): A LEAP Model Application towards a Sustainable Power Generation System in Ecuador

This research assesses the Ecuadorian power generation system, estimating the electricity supply and demand forecast until 2040. For this purpose, three potential alternative scenarios were analyzed using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System; S1: Business As Usual; S2: Power Generation Master Plan; and S3: Sustainable Power Generation System. The main goal of this study is to analyze the possible alternatives for electricity supply and demand, fuel consumption, and the future structure of the Ecuadorian power generation system to transform the current system based on petroleum fuels into a sustainable system that consumes natural gas, and progressively introduces renewable power generation plants such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectric until 2040. According to the estimated results through the inclusion of sustainable energy policies, S3 scenario relative to S1 scenario could reduce the average CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 11.72%, the average production costs by 9.78%, and the average petroleum fuel consumption by 15.95%. Consequently, a correct energy transition contributes to the protection of the environment and public health and has a direct effect on economic savings for the state, which benefits to improve the citizen’s quality of life.

A metropolitan scale analysis of the impacts of future electricity mix alternatives on the water-energy nexus

Current population and climate trends are increasing the need to adopt holistic approaches for managing water and energy systems, especially in water-limited regions like the Southwestern U.S. In this study, we quantify the implications of future energy mix alternatives on the water-energy nexus in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan region using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) platform. We first show that LEAP is able to simulate historical observations of energy generation and consumption from 2001 to 2018. We then simulate future electricity generation through 2060 under the same demand projections and different energy mix solutions. Results of our simulations are as follows. (i) Water heating accounts for 71% of the total water-related uses and its energy needs are projected to double in 2060, due to population growth; the energy required to treat and move water is instead expected to decrease by 9%, mainly because of declining agricultural water demands. (ii) Energy mix solutions that transition faster to renewable sources are more sustainable than a business as usual scenario that relies more on fossil fuels, because renewable technologies require less water for electricity generation (−35%) and reduce CO2 emissions (−57%). (iii) The aggressive transition to renewable energy is projected to have higher structural costs than the business as usual scenario, but comparable total expenses because of the lower operational cost of renewable technologies. This work complements and expands previous regional studies focused on the Southwestern U.S. and supports current efforts of local stakeholder engagement initiated by the authors.

Research on Electricity Supply Forecasting Model and Application of China Adapting to Supply-Side Structural Reform

Since 2012, China’s economy has entered a new normal of declining potential growth rate, mainly due to insufficient effective supply, structural imbalance and mismatch between supply and demand. In order to solve the structural problems of China’s economic development, since 2015, the government has made major theoretical innovations and decision-making arrangements for supply-side structural reform. Electric power industry is the key area and important support of supply-side structural reform. In order to simulate and forecast the electric power supply situation under the structural reform of supply side, this paper uses Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to construct the energy processing conversion module, and optimizes the power generation module based on the principle of minimum cost. In this model, power generation capacity, electricity generation and carbon emission is calculated under both basic and active supply side structural reform scenarios. Under the active supply side structural reform scenario, the results show that China’s power generation capacity and electricity generation will reach 5949 GW and 16.1 billion MWh in 2050 respectively, and the proportion of clean energy for both power generation capacity and electricity generation increased significantly. China’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy combustion will peak in 2023, with a peak of about 9.87 billion tons.

Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Analysis for Sumatera Interconnection System using Integrated Resources Planning Approach

The Sumatra interconnection system, which is the second-largest electricity system in Indonesia, is often experiencing rolling blackouts. That caused by a lack of supply from the power generating system of Sumatra. The Government has planned to develop new power plants through the fast track program (FTP). Until 2015, either power outages and supply shortages are still common. Therefore, an analysis of long-term electricity planning needed to support energy security in Sumatra. The Sumatra electricity system was modelled using integrated resource planning as a framework and the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) software as a tool to build and simulate the model. Three groups of scenarios will be compared are the fast track program (FTP) scenario, the biofuel mandatory (BM) scenario and optimization (OPT) scenario. The results show that the implementation of DSM programs through energy conservation scenario would be able to reduce the electricity demand in the future. On the other side, the alternative scenario shows that the electricity deficit could be resolved in 2022, while the optimization scenario shows that energy diversity would resolve the electricity crisis in the Sumatra interconnection system.

Estimasi Dampak Implementasi Kebijakan Terhadap Potensi Konservasi Energi Di Sektor Industri

Beside transportation sector, industrial sector is one of the biggest energy consumption sector.Therefore, any energy conservation effort in this sector will contribute to the energy demand reduction as targeted in the National Energy Policy (KEN) and National Energy Plan (RUEN). This study tries to estimate the potential of energy conservation in Industrial sector by implementing four energy conservation policies, mamely: 1) implementation of energy management system, 2) boiler efficiency improvement, 3) Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) implementation for electric motor, and 4) MEPS implementation for chillers. Potential of energy conservation was calculated by using Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software. The results of this study indicate that the implemntation of those energy conservation policies has the potential to reduce energy demands by 35 million Barrel Oil Equivalent (BOE) or by 7.9% in 2025 and 232 million BOE or 15.3% in 2050 as compared to energy demand in the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. In sthe hort-term, (2025), the contribution of energy saving from the implementation of : energy management system, improving boiler efficiency, implementation of MEPS for electric motors, and implementation of MEPS for chillers are 1.1%, 6.3%, 0.5%, and 0% , respectivily. While, for the long -term (2050) , the contribution of each policy are 6.5%, 6%,2.2%, and 0.5%, respectively.Beside transportation sector, industrial sector is one of the biggest energy consumption sector.Therefore, any energy conservation effort in this sector will contribute to the energy demand reduction as targeted in the National Energy Policy (KEN) and National Energy Plan (RUEN). This study tries to estimate the potential of energy conservation in Industrial sector by implementing four energy conservation policies, mamely: 1) implementation of energy management system, 2) boiler efficiency improvement, 3) Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) implementation for electric motor, and 4) MEPS implementation for chillers. Potential of energy conservation was calculated by using Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software. The results of this study indicate that the implemntation of those energy conservation policies has the potential to reduce energy demands by 35 million Barrel Oil Equivalent (BOE) or by 7.9% in 2025 and 232 million BOE or 15.3% in 2050 as compared to energy demand in the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. In sthe hort-term, (2025), the contribution of energy saving from the implementation of : energy management system, improving boiler efficiency, implementation of MEPS for electric motors, and implementation of MEPS for chillers are 1.1%, 6.3%, 0.5%, and 0% , respectivily. While, for the long -term (2050) , the contribution of each policy are 6.5%, 6%,2.2%, and 0.5%, respectively.

Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China

In view of the complexity of the energy system and its complex relationship with socio-economic factors, this study adopts the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, a technology-based, bottom-up approach, scenario-based analysis, to develop a systematic analysis of the current and future energy consumption, supply and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. The impact of various energy policies on the energy system in Hebei Province was analysed by considering four scenarios: a Reference Scenario (REF), Industrial Structure Optimization Scenario (ISO), Terminal Consumption Structure Optimization Scenario (TOS) and Low-carbon Development Scenario (LCD). By designing strategic policies from the perspective of industrial adjustment, aggressive energy structure policies and measures, such as the ISO and the TOS, and even more aggressive options, such as the LCD, where the percentage of cleaner alternative energy sources has been further increased, it has been indicated that energy consumption will have increased from 321.618 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the REF, with a corresponding increase in GHG emissions from 920.56 million metric tonnes (Mt) to 2262.81 Mt. In contrast, the more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the LCD, which combines the ISO with the policy-oriented TOS, can lower energy consumption by 50.82% and CO2 emissions by 64.26%. The results shed light on whether and how these scenarios can shape the energy-carbon emission reduction trajectories and develop the low-carbon pathways in Hebei Province.

Assessment of long-term energy efficiency improvement and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation options for the cement industry

The cement industry is responsible for between 5% and 9% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The increasing trend of GHG emissions from cement sector highlights the importance of GHG mitigation in this industry. In the current study, bottom-up energy modelling and scenario analyses were used to assess long-term GHG mitigation potential in the cement industry. The developed comprehensive, data-intensive, and technology-rich model is flexible and can be used to study the GHG mitigation potential in different regions. For the case study of Canada, a reference scenario along with 20 GHG emissions' reduction scenarios were developed in the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. For each scenario, cumulative energy saving and GHG reduction potential were analyzed. Furthermore, the net present value, cost of saved energy, and carbon were calculated to assess the economic performance of different scenarios. Carbon abatement cost curves were also developed using the GHG mitigation potential and the cost of implementing different energy efficiency options. Overall, compared to the reference scenario, the cumulative GHG mitigation potentials in the Canadian cement sector are 27 and 59 million tonnes CO2eq. by the years 2030 and 2050, respectively. More than 70% of the emissions’ reduction is achievable with negative cost.

How to model a complex national energy system? Developing an integrated energy systems framework for long-term energy and emissions analysis

In order to manage an energy system responsibly and maintain its benefits indefinitely, science-based decision-making should be valued during energy policy making and energy management. This research presents a framework for developing a scientific tool with the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system for evaluating energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation pathways for a national energy system. The framework developed is applied to create a bottom-up (technology-explicit), data-intensive (over 2 million data points), multi-regional (13 integrated regions) energy model of Canada, one of the world's most energy and emission intensive nations. Model accuracy was validated with historical data showing emissions varied 0-1.2% proving the framework can provide accurate assessments. The model was used to generate baseline Canadian energy-emissions outlooks to 2050 that do not currently exist in literature. The developed framework provides robust capabilities that are helpful for energy efficiency analysis, energy planning, and GHG mitigation assessment.

Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model

The power sector exercises huge impacts on global warming through emitted greenhouse gases [GHGs], with Australia not an exception. Over the years, the effectiveness of policies that have emerged to curtail GHGs emissions from electricity generation seem barely investigated. To address this gap, the study identifies potential energy reduction policies and climate change scenarios for the Australian power sector by applying approaches from combined backcasting and exploratory scenario. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system and its integrated Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used for optimisation analysis. Results identified cost optimisation scenarios as a least-cost generation pathway with less climate change impact, followed by renewable energy target and energy productivity scenarios. Economic analysis shows that emission reduction policy will result in added cost to the economy, while carbon tax policies will yield economic benefit in installation cost, resource savings and environmental externalities reductions by 2050. The environmental analysis reveals that emission reduction policy will increase cumulative emissions, while future temperatures may double the emissions from the base case scenario. We conclude that future low-carbon pathways lie in clean energy substitutions and innovative energy policies, while global warming raises the need to switch to clean energy technologies early.

From fossil fuels to renewables: An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning

This study analyses a diffusion of renewable energy in an electricity system accounting for technological learning. We explore long-term scenarios for capacity expansion of the Java-Bali electricity system in Indonesia, considering the country’s renewable energy targets. We apply the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with an integration of technological learning. Our results reveal that, at the medium and high pace of technological learning, the total costs of electricity production to achieve the long-term renewable energy target are 4–10% lower than the scenario without considering technological learning. With respect to technology, solar PV and wind become competitive with other types of renewables and nuclear. Moreover, the fulfilment of the renewable energy targets decreases CO2 emissions by 25% compared to the reference scenario. Implications of our results indicate that energy policies should focus on the early deployment of renewables, upgrading the grid capacity to accommodate variable renewable energy, and enabling faster local learning.

Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in China: policy priorities for achieving climate mitigation and energy conservation targets

ABSTRACTIn this study, a long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was built to evaluate the relative priority of three kinds of policies expected to be implemented for the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors (EIMS) in China to achieve CO2 mitigation and energy conservation targets. These policies encourage (1) the use of more electricity instead of coal; (2) the continuous improvement of energy efficiency; and (3) a shift to other less energy-demanding sectors. The results indicate that the policy of shifting economic activity from the EIMS to other sectors is most helpful for China to achieve its targets of mitigating CO2 emissions and conserving energy. Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity can help China to achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption. No single policy will allow China to achieve all the targets, emphasizing the need for an integrated policy design that combines all types of policies.Key policy insightsThe policy of encouraging a shift to less energy intensive industries should receive the highest priority in aiming to peak China's energy-related CO2 emissions as early as possible, and lower overall CO2 emissions, coal consumption and primary energy consumption in the long run.Encouraging a shift to electricity should go hand-in-hand with greater energy efficiency, otherwise such a policy cannot help China significantly reduce energy-related CO2 emissions.Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity should receive the highest priority in helping China achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption.

Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy

In the developing world, the energy needs of the household sector have grown manifold, due to rapid urbanization and the introduction of affordable technology. However, constraints in the power supply and underutilization of renewable resources, coupled with inefficient fuel use and obsolete technology, have increased the average energy usage cost and emissions. Hence, the current study provides a long-term sustainable energy management plan for the urban household, in terms of energy savings, social cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. To address energy security and climate change challenges, a demand-side management scenario (DSM) is proposed through integration of efficient policies and nationally determined contributions. On the basis of policy analysis and energy consumption patterns, macro-economic modeling was carried out for the period 2011–2050, using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeling tool. Results show that the “efficient water heating” scenario offers the maximum energy-saving potential (up to 270 M.TOE) whereas “efficient space cooling” is the lowest-cost scenario. To achieve the best-fit mitigation scenario (MIT), targets for renewable energy supply were also incorporated. Findings were weighed against the reference scenario (REF), which reveals a huge GHG reduction under the DSM. Moreover, the cost required to implement MIT is estimated to be 3.4 US $/tonne of carbon dioxide-equivalent, less than the REF.

Structural contribution and scenario simulation of highway passenger transit carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region, China

The rapid growth of energy consumption and resulting CO2 emissions from transportation in China present challenges for decision makers in resolving a balance between demands for energy and environmental sustainability. In China, the major source of carbon (C) emissions derives from the transit system, and this problem is of particular interest in metropolitan regions, however there is a lack of clarity on past and projected future trends of C emissions from transit. This study aimed to model recent (2005–2014) historical spatio-temporal highway passenger transit C emissions (HPTCEs) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban region, and to predict future emissions to 2030 under three simulated contrasting management scenarios. We used a long-range energy alternative planning system (LEAP) model to predict emissions under baseline, business as usual growth, and partial and total emission control scenarios. Modeling showed that the total emission control scenario resulted in greater reductions in C emission compared with the baseline growth and partial control scenarios, however, regional total C emissions were predicted to continue to rise by 2030 under all three scenarios. C emissions per passenger kilometer were predicted to decrease over time, while total regional C emissions continued to rise and increase pressure for decision makers to reduce regional C emissions. While HPTCEs were historically greater in Beijing and Tianjin, those from Hebei Province had recently sharply increased to levels greater than in Beijing and Tianjin, and this trend was predicted to continue. This study demonstrates that science-based policy intervention and regulations could reduce C emissions in metropolitan areas.

Low-carbon measures for Fiji's land transport energy system

Road transport in Fiji is fully dependent on petroleum fuels. This study is a first for Fiji where fuel demand for land transport is studied under some clean transportation strategies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) tool is used with 2016 as the base year and 2040 as the end year. In 2016, approximately 337 million litres of fuel was used with an associated GHG emission of around 864 Gg of CO2e, which increases to 1158.4 Gg by 2040 in Business as usual (BAU) scenario. Several measures are explored to reduce the fuel consumption in the land transport sector in Fiji.

Costs and benefits of renewable energy development in China's power industry

Abstract China's power sector has become the largest contributor to China's carbon emissions because of its coal-dominated power structure. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions and, therefore, a series of targets for renewable electricity generation have been put forward in national plans. However, how these targets will be reached is unclear. This paper uses a Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) model to explore the optimum development path of China's power sector from 2015 to 2050, taking into consideration the impacts of the renewable energy targets. Three scenarios are designed to examine the costs and benefits of developing renewable energy and improving the technologies for renewable power generation, comprising a base scenario, a renewable energy policy scenario and a technological progress scenario. The results show that the power generation cost would increase by at least 2.31 trillion RMB and that CO2 emissions would be reduced by 35.8 billion tonnes during 2015–2050 if power generation follows current planning. Furthermore, every 1% increase in the capacity factors of renewable electricity would on average result in the cumulative CO2 emissions decreased by 979 million tonnes and average CO2 abatement cost decreased by 5.56 RMB/tCO2 during 2015–2050. Based on this study, several policy implications are proposed for the development of power sector in China. Firstly, government may reconsider the current planning for gas-fired power and nuclear power to reach low-carbon electricity generation. Secondly, adjusting the carbon price can offset the additional cost of renewable electricity generation. Thirdly, promoting advanced technologies to match renewable electricity generation can obtain greater economic and environmental benefits. Finally, from the perspective of development potential, reducing the costs of solar power would be the emphasis at this stage.

Energy–water nexus analysis in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: Case of electricity sector

Water shortage can constrain energy development and use, and climate change partially caused by energy consumption can profoundly affect the quantity and distribution of water resources worldwide. The chronic water shortage in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China is likely to worsen under the impact of global climate change. The coal-dominated electricity sector will continuously have a high water demand. This reality will intensify the dilemma between water supply and power generation. This paper presents an adaptability analysis of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in 2013–2030 based on the current situation. Water evaluation and planning and long-range energy alternative planning systems are used to simulate changes in water and energy systems, respectively, and the impacts on the electricity sector under two climate scenarios and three development scenarios. On this basis, this study explores the potential of power structure adjustment and technological advancement in easing baseline water stress and promoting sustainable development in the region. Findings show that the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is under high water stress, which will be aggravated under global climate change. In representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the baseline water stress of the region in 2017–2030 averages 259% and 494%, and the annual unmet water demand reaches 15.3 and 21.1 billion m3, respectively. In the renewable energy and advanced technology scenarios, the regional water savings are expected to reach 200–250 million m3 by 2030. The unmet water demand of power generation can be alleviated to some extent, but the water shortage trend cannot be reversed. Therefore, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region should develop an overall plan and layout of energy and water resources and adopt a combination of policy instruments to support the expansion of renewable energy or promote advanced power generation technologies.

Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050

With the accelerating process of urbanization, energy consumption and emissions of the transport sector in China have increased rapidly. In this paper, we employed the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) model to estimate the energy consumption, CO2 (carbon dioxide) and air pollutant emissions of the transport sector between 2010 and 2050 under four scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Efficiency Improvement (EEI), Transport Mode Optimization (TMO), and Comprehensive Policy (CP). Furthermore, the intake fraction method was adopted to assess the health benefits of reducing pollutant emissions. The results showed that energy consumption will reach 509–1284 Mtce under the different scenarios by 2050. The emissions of CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOX) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) will be 2601, 173, 3.4, 24.0, 0.94 and 0.78 Mt, respectively, under the BAU scenario in 2050. Regarding health benefits, economic losses caused by mortality will be reduced by 47, 40 and 72 billion USD in 2050 under the EEI, TMO and CP scenarios, respectively, compared to those under the BAU scenario. Among the health outcomes associated with PM10, acute bronchitis exhibits the worst outcome. Considering health impacts, policy implications are suggested to reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions.