Abstract
This research assesses the Ecuadorian power generation system, estimating the electricity supply and demand forecast until 2040. For this purpose, three potential alternative scenarios were analyzed using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System; S1: Business As Usual; S2: Power Generation Master Plan; and S3: Sustainable Power Generation System. The main goal of this study is to analyze the possible alternatives for electricity supply and demand, fuel consumption, and the future structure of the Ecuadorian power generation system to transform the current system based on petroleum fuels into a sustainable system that consumes natural gas, and progressively introduces renewable power generation plants such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydroelectric until 2040. According to the estimated results through the inclusion of sustainable energy policies, S3 scenario relative to S1 scenario could reduce the average CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 11.72%, the average production costs by 9.78%, and the average petroleum fuel consumption by 15.95%. Consequently, a correct energy transition contributes to the protection of the environment and public health and has a direct effect on economic savings for the state, which benefits to improve the citizen’s quality of life.
Highlights
Electricity plays a vital role as a factor of economic growth and social welfare, in which it is essential to have accessible and reliable electricity at safe conditions, reasonable prices, and with the least possible damage to the environment, in other words, sustainable energy [1,2]
Private organizations and public institutions from different countries have carried out numerous studies related to planning and modeling of electricity consumption [3], scenarios of electricity supply and demand [4,5,6,7], fossil fuel consumption in electricity generation industry [8], the sustainable power generation sector [9,10], electricity supply [11], performance evaluation and economic analysis of technologies [12,13], or promoting the consumption of sustainable resources such as natural gas [14]
The forthcoming electricity demand will be directly linked to (a) population growth that produces an increase in consumption [3]; (b) increase in the nominal gross domestic product (MMUSD 104,296 in 2017 [25]), which corresponds to an annual average of 3.61% from 2006 to 2017 [19,20]; (c) five strategic mining projects: San Carlos Panantza, Río Blanco, Loma Larga, Mirador, Fruta del Norte [26]; (d) massive electric transport: the Quito Metro, Cuenca tram and freight train between Quito and Guayaquil [27]; (e) Yachay “Ciudad del Conocimiento” [28]; (f) construction and operation of The Pacific Refinery (RDP for its acronym in Spanish) [29]; and (g) the energy efficiency program for cooking (PEC for its acronym in Spanish) and heating water with electricity in the household sector [22,30]
Summary
Electricity plays a vital role as a factor of economic growth and social welfare, in which it is essential to have accessible and reliable electricity at safe conditions, reasonable prices, and with the least possible damage to the environment, in other words, sustainable energy [1,2]. The forthcoming electricity demand will be directly linked to (a) population growth that produces an increase in consumption [3]; (b) increase in the nominal gross domestic product (MMUSD 104,296 in 2017 [25]), which corresponds to an annual average of 3.61% from 2006 to 2017 [19,20]; (c) five strategic mining projects: San Carlos Panantza, Río Blanco, Loma Larga, Mirador, Fruta del Norte [26]; (d) massive electric transport: the Quito Metro, Cuenca tram and freight train between Quito and Guayaquil [27]; (e) Yachay “Ciudad del Conocimiento” [28]; (f) construction and operation of The Pacific Refinery (RDP for its acronym in Spanish) [29]; and (g) the energy efficiency program for cooking (PEC for its acronym in Spanish) and heating water with electricity in the household sector [22,30] In this context, this study proposes to analyze three different alternative scenarios using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system, with the aim of converting the current structure of the thermal power generation system characterized by the consumption of petroleum fuels, into a sustainable system based on renewable energies (hydroelectric, wind, solar, biomass, biogas) and natural gas. The Goals consider the correct use of energy sources an essential target to improve by 2030
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