Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Research Articles

Research on the energy transition pathways of the transportation sector in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

Energy transitions is an effective way to achieve sustainable development in the transportation sector. To explore the pathways to energy transitions in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) transportation sector, the article evaluated the potential of energy savings and CO2 emission reduction of different measures in a quantitative way, based on the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) platform. The marginal abatement cost curves are used to visually reflect the cost–benefit of these measures, and to develop cost-effective pathways to energy transitions. The results show that the measures of transportation modes adjustment and private cars regulating should be prioritized due to the potential of significant emission reduction with good cost-effectiveness. The measures of promoting electricity and hydrogen energy have large emission reduction potential, but only those for road traffic are cost-effective, and should be treated with a lower priority. Considering the high cost, the measures of promoting biofuel should be implemented as least priority. Moreover, the measures of liquefied natural gas (LNG) application have good cost-effectiveness, as opposed to limited CO2 emission reduction potential. It can only be used as a transitional fuel for the energy transitions. The findings and research methodology will provide theoretical support for the formulation of transportation energy transition pathways in the GBA and other regions.

Sectoral carbon emission prediction and spatial modeling framework: A local climate zone-based case study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emission (CE) is prerequisite for formulating carbon reduction policies. Previous studies emphasized quantitative analysis of CE inventory while ignoring sectoral spatial distribution. This study fills this gap by developing a framework for coupling the CE quantitative prediction model with the sectoral CE spatial model based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model, spatial proxy data and local climate zone (LCZ). The framework's sectoral CE results reveal a great varied landscape within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), one of the leading bay areas in the world with rapid urbanization and emphasis on low-carbon development, under four carbon reduction scenarios. By 2060, the CN3 scenario that considers both energy-supply and consumption sides, predicts a drastic emission cut to 35.76 million tons, just 10 % of the business as usual (BAU) scenario's forecast, mainly from transportation (29.45 million tons) and industry (9.34 million tons) sectors. Besides, compared with the common CE spatial products, the spatial simulation results of sectoral CE in our framework present detailed spatial differences at the jurisdictional level. The findings are conducive for governments to formulate accurate CE reduction and optimization strategies of the cities towards to the 2060 carbon neutrality.

Energy structure optimization of shandong province by 2035 under double carbon goal

Abstract In this paper, based on the existing population size, economic development level, industrial structure, current status of energy production and consumption, and current status of electricity production and consumption in Shandong Province, the LEAP-Shandong model was constructed by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model as a research tool, which is used to forecast the population size, GDP, energy consumption, and electricity structure of different industries in Shandong Province up to 2035 under three scenarios: policy development scenario, energy efficiency improvement scenario, and enhanced low-carbon scenario. The result shows that the population of Shandong province is expected to peak at 10, 426, 000 by 2033, and then slowly decline; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, with an appropriate slowdown in economic development, further optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of energy efficiency can effectively reduce the energy consumption of the terminal energy-using sector in Shandong province. Based on the results, the main recommendations for Shandong’s energy development are as follows: to build a low-carbon industrial system in Shandong in light of new development opportunities; to build a new energy development system in light of Shandong’s energy characteristics; and to promote the low-carbon transformation of Shandong’s energy in light of the new model of the energy industry.

Long-Term Forecast of Energy Demand towards a Sustainable Future in Renewable Energies Focused on Geothermal Energy in Peru (2020–2050): A LEAP Model Application

The present study aims to describe the potential sources of energy in Peru with the purpose of implementing them to achieve a sustainable system, taking advantage of the natural resources in the Peruvian land. To achieve this, three alternative scenarios have been defined and analyzed using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software [Software Version: 2020.1.112]. The scenarios are as follows: the first one, the Business-as-Usual scenario, is based on normal trends according to historical data and referencing projections made by Peruvian state entities; the second one is focused on Energy Efficiency, the highlighted characteristic is taking into consideration the efficient conditions in transmission and distribution of electric energy; and the third one, centered on Geothermal Energy, focused on the development of this type of energy source and prioritizing it. The primary purpose of this analysis is to identify the advantages and disadvantages inherent in each scenario in order to obtain the best out of each one. In this way, the intention is to propose solutions based on Peru’s national reality or possible uses of the country’s energy potential to supply its energy demand. Currently, Peru’s energy demand relies on fossil fuels, hydraulic, and thermal energy. However, there is the possibility of transforming this system into a sustainable one by strengthening existing and growing energy sources such as solar and wind energy and new technologies for hydraulic and thermal energy, in addition to considering geothermal energy as the main energy source in the third scenario. The new system mentioned satisfactorily indicates that the CO2 equivalent emissions decrease significantly in the third scenario, with a 15.8% reduction compared to the first scenario and a 9.7% reduction in comparison to the second. On the other hand, the second scenario shows a 5.6% decrease in CO2 emissions compared to the first, resulting from improvements in technology and energy efficiency without requiring significant modifications or considerable investments, as in the third scenario.

Exploring hydrogen metallurgy to CO2 emissions reduction in China’s iron and steel production: An analysis based on the life cycle CO2 emissions – LEAP model

Previous research has primarily assessed the environmental impact of hydrogen metallurgy from technical or project perspectives, lacking a life cycle perspective. The impact of continued cleanliness of the hydrogen production mix and power generation structure on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the hydrogen metallurgy production process has not been investigated on a medium to long-term scale, which does not provide an adequate and comprehensive view of the contribution of hydrogen metallurgy to China’s emissions reduction, resulting in short-sighted technology choices. To address this lack, we construct a bottom-up energy system model that combines life cycle CO2 emissions with long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP), including iron and steel (IS) production, power generation, and hydrogen production. Setting development paths of two typical hydrogen metallurgy technologies, including business-as-usual (BAU) and hydrogen metallurgy (HM) scenarios, we carefully evaluate the CO2 emissions impact of hydrogen metallurgy from a whole industry perspective and in each IS production stage. The results suggest that the hydrogen metallurgy transition will help the iron and steel industry (ISI) to achieve peak and deep carbon reduction. Under the HM scenario, CO2 emissions from the ISI would decrease to 816.28 million tons (Mt) in 2050, representing an additional 281.13 Mt reduction over the BAU scenario. Hydrogen metallurgy can accelerate CO2 reduction in raw material acquisition and material processing phases but may increase CO2 emissions in manufacturing and recycling phases. In 2050, hydrogen metallurgy will contribute an additional 12.49 Mt and 300.95 Mt of CO2 reduction to the raw material acquisition and material processing phases, respectively. However, CO2 emissions in the manufacturing and recycling phases would be 32.15 Mt and 0.22 Mt more than in the BAU scenario due to the increased electricity consumption and scrap demand of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, respectively. Over time, the optimization of hydrogen production and power supply mix will gradually reduce CO2 emissions in each IS production process. In 2050, the CO2 intensity of the hydrogen-rich shaft furnace direct reduced iron (H2-DRI)-EAF process will drop to 753.41 kgCO2/t, which is lower than all other processes except the 100 % scrap-based EAF process. Advancing the development of the H2-DRI-EAF process can effectively achieve CO2 emissions reduction while alleviating dependence on scrap resources. The results are expected to inform government policy on the development of hydrogen metallurgy in China and other countries.

Estimation of energy demand and carbon emissions for the road transport sector: A case study of Douala, Cameroon

Road transport is one of the main causes of air pollution around the world. Nowadays, the notion of sustainable development is one of the major pillars for a healthy environment. However, faced with its major challenges, it is more than necessary and important to understand a set of elements which contribute to better understanding the level of planning for sustainable road transport. This study aims to estimate energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions, namely from road CO2 transport, for the city of Douala in Cameroon from 2010 to 2035. In order to achieve our objective, we used the Long range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. Based on the LEAP model, the estimates were evaluated based on three scenarios Business As Usual (BAU), Energy Optimization and Mitigation (EOM) and Sustainability Mobility (SM). The aim of this work was to identify suitable potential policies with a view to reducing energy consumption and emissions carbon dioxide (CO2) for road transport in Douala. The results tell us that the EOM and SM scenarios have advantages over the BAU scenario with the SM scenario being more optimistic than the other two scenarios. In addition, the SM scenario has a growth rate of 87.408 % in energy demand smaller than the other two scenarios BAU and EOM respectively 151.598 % and 132.073 %. We also note that the SM scenario contributed to a reduction of 60.661 kilo ton emissions of CO2 less than the BAU scenario. At present, with a view to reducing energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions, road vehicles in circulation in the city of Douala should emphasize structural optimization measures through the use of clean energy by promoting the use of biofuels in mass transport, eliminating old cars and finally considering improving energy efficiency through the implementation of technological development in the automobile sector. Policy makers must take this study into consideration in order to better integrate the notion of energy sustainable road transport.

Promote the decarbonization pathways of eco-industrial parks by considering their CO2 emissions structures and characters

China has proposed the goals of a carbon peaking target in 2030 and a carbon neutrality target in 2060 to mitigate climate change. In China, Eco-industrial parks (EIPs) are one of the platforms for achieving energy conservation and emission reduction. This study aims to investigate the future CO2 emissions reduction potential by evaluating two different types of national EIPs in China. Firstly, we constructed carbon emission inventories for EIP-N in Zhejiang Province and EIP-L in Shandong Province. Subsequently, leveraging these inventories, we developed an integrated model aimed at predicting the carbon emission peaks for both EIPs and discerning the main contributors. Secondly, we took EIP-N and EIP-L as examples and applied the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to establish three different scenarios for analyzing the future trends in carbon emissions. In a Business as usual (BAU) scenario (continue the current energy conservation and emission reduction policies), EIP-L can achieve carbon peaking, while the carbon emissions of EIP-N will continue to increase. In the Emissions control (EMC) scenario (considering the reduction of fossil fuels and the increased use of cleaner energy sources), EIP-N and EIP-L are projected to peak in 2029 and 2027, respectively. In the Reinforce mitigation (RFM) scenario (with fewer emissions from fuels and a higher share of clean energy generation), both EIPs are expected to achieve carbon peaking by 2025. Finally, we proposed the deep decarbonization of EIPs with different industrial characteristics. This study applied the LEAP model to the EIP scale, explored the paths of deep decarbonization development in different EIPs under the constraint of dual-carbon targets, providing a demonstration for China and other developing countries to achieve the goal of carbon capping in EIPs during rapid industrialization.

Pathways for carbon emission prediction and mitigation of sustainable industrial parks: a LEAP model application

ABSTRACT Industrial parks play a crucial role as a carrier of industrial clusters and energy consumption. Accurately predicting the energy demand and carbon emissions trend is key to scientifically determining the pathways for low-carbon industrial parks. However, exploration in carbon emission prediction on industrial park scale is still in its infancy stage. This paper investigates fuel demand and carbon emissions from 2021 to 2035 in an industrial park in Jiangsu Province, utilizing the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model to explore the pathways for low carbon development. Energy-saving and emission-reduction effects of different macro-economic policies and micro-energy planning are analyzed based on the energy balance and emission factor methods. Four scenarios are compared: the baseline scenario (BAS), green development scenario (GDS), low carbon scenario (LCS), and strength low carbon scenario (SLS). Results indicated that energy demand under BAS reached at 31.37 Mtce in 2035, and energy-saving rates of GDS, LCS, and SLS in 2035 were 12.94%, 14.00% and 19.08%, respectively. Carbon emissions reached 53.96 MtCO2e in BAS of 2035. However, in the same year, emissions decreased by 24.88%, 43.09%, and 52.52% in GDS, LCS, and SLS, respectively, with SLS being the most suitable for the park.

Renewable energy integration for lower emission planning and achieving regional energy independence: study in Yogyakarta

We propose and try to find a model renewable energy integration for lower emission and achieving regional energy independence. The research uses three stages. First, building an energy system model, to analyze the impact of implementing energy efficiency programs. The second stage is developing an integrated model from the energy demand and supply. Finally, arranging a mitigation scenarios to develop a low-carbon energy and achieving energy independence. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software was utilized to simulate two scenarios are used to analyze energy demand and supply, namely Baseline scenarios and Mitigation scenarios. Mitigation Scenario is a combination of Energy Efficiency (EE) scenario, Fuel Substitution (FS), mode change scenario (MC), and efficient vehicle (EV) scenario and is used to analyze their impact on energy demand and GHG emissions. The results showed that mitigation scenarios can reduce energy demand by 22.86% when compared to the baseline scenario. In 2050, energy demand based on the mitigation scenario is 147.15 x 103 TJ, higher than based on the baseline scenario, which energy demand is 113.52 x 103 TJ. The cumulative of GHG emission reaches 1,369.37 x 103 Tons of CO2 Equivalent, based on the baseline scenario, can be reduced 13.54% by mitigation scenario. These results are robust. Overall, this research finding provides some possible steps to develop Yogyakarta energy independence and other regions.

PROPOSAL FOR PUBLIC POLICIES TO PROMOTE AND ENCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY GENERATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

This paper proposes novel public policies aimed at incentivizing wind energy generation in the United States. In response to the imperative of transitioning to sustainable energy sources, the study explores innovative approaches to promote and accelerate the adoption of wind power. Furthermore, the research employs the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) software for energy planning to simulate the forecasted impact of these proposed policies on the wind energy supply in the USA. By integrating policy recommendations with simulation results, this study provides a comprehensive analysis to guide policymakers and stakeholders in fostering the growth of wind energy as a pivotal component in the country’s renewable energy landscape.

Coordination Relationship of Carbon Emissions and Air Pollutants under Governance Measures in a Typical Industrial City in China

Coordinating and controlling carbon and atmospheric pollutant emissions in industrial cities poses challenges, making it difficult to formulate effective environmental governance strategies in China. This study used the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) models, with a typical industrial city in the Sichuan Basin as the case study. Five emission reduction scenarios, one integration scenario, and one baseline scenario were set to quantitatively analyze the synergistic effect between carbon emissions and atmospheric pollutant emissions. The results indicate a high synergy between sulfur dioxide and greenhouse gases. For every one-point decrease in the Air Quality Composite Index (AQCI), the Industrial Restructuring Scenario (IR), Other Source Management Scenario (OSM), Transportation Energy Efficiency Improvement Scenario (TEEI), Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement Scenario (IEEI), and Transportation Restructuring (TR) scenarios would require a reduction in carbon emissions by 56,492.79 kilotons, 39,850.45 kilotons, 34,027.5 kilotons, 22,356.58 kilotons, and 3243.33 kilotons, respectively. The results indicate that governance measures, such as improving transportation structure and upgrading industrial technologies, provide stronger support for simultaneous carbon emissions reductions and air quality improvement.

Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition

Global climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of industrial parks and formulate the strategic path of emission reduction, this paper amalgamates the benefits of the “top-down” and “bottom-up” prediction methodologies, incorporating the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model, and integrates the Tapio decoupling theory to predict the carbon emissions of an industrial park cluster of an economic development zone in Yancheng from 2020 to 2035 under baseline (BAS) and low-carbon scenarios (LC1, LC2, and LC3). The findings suggest that, in comparison to the BAS scenario, the carbon emissions in the LC1, LC2, and LC3 scenarios decreased by 30.4%, 38.4%, and 46.2%, respectively, with LC3 being the most suitable pathway for the park’s development. Finally, the paper explores carbon emission sources, and analyzes emission reduction potential and optimization measures of the energy structure, thus providing a reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies for industrial parks.

Analysis of Hydroelectric Power Plants in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

This study aims to determine the amount of potential renewable energy sources of hydroelectric power plants that have been used to meet the electrical energy needs in East Kalimantan at this time, the amount of potential renewable energy sources of hydroelectric power plants that have not been used for electrical energy needs in East Kalimantan at this time, and the planning of electrical energy to provide electrical energy in the province of East Kalimantan in order to In this study, energy supply and demand in the province of East Kalimantan were analyzed using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) models. Analyze the energy supply and demand over the next thirteen years using 2012 as the starting point. The linear regression methodology used to project energy demand interpolates historical data, activity, and energy intensity. According to the study's findings, just 1,509 MW of the province of East Kalimantan's potential hydropower sources—6976.14 MW—have been used up to this point. In 2025, the population is expected to rise by 6,167,359 people, increasing the demand for electricity from 17,546,970 MWh to 20,643,495 MWh. According to the national energy management's blueprint for the goal composition of the energy mix, hydropower capacity in 2025 would have been 23,961,414 MWh or 55.56% of the overall producing capacity of 43,129,583 MWh.

Can China achieve its 2030 and 2060 CO2 commitments? Scenario analysis based on the integration of LEAP model with LMDI decomposition

China's ambitious targets of peaking its Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on or before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 have been a topic of discussion in the international community. This study innovatively combines the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to quantitatively evaluate the CO2 emissions from energy consumption in China from 2000 to 2060. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework, the study designs five scenarios to explore the impact of different development pathways on energy consumption and related carbon emissions. The LEAP model scenarios are based on the result of LMDI decomposition, which identifies the key influencing factors on CO2 emissions. The empirical findings of this study demonstrate that the energy intensity effect is the primary factor of the 14.7 % reduction in CO2 emissions observed in China from 2000 to 2020. Conversely, the economic development level effect has been the driving factor behind the increase of 50.4 % in CO2 emissions. Additionally, the urbanization effect has contributed 24.7 % to the overall change in CO2 emissions during the same period. Furthermore, the study investigates potential future trajectories of CO2 emissions in China up to 2060, based on various scenarios. The results suggest that, under the SSP1 scenarios. China's CO2 emissions would peak in 2023 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, under the SSP4 scenarios, emissions are expected to peak in 2028, and China would need to eliminate approximately 2000 Mt of additional CO2 emissions to reach carbon neutrality. In other scenarios, China is projected to be unable to meet the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The conclusions drawn from this study offer valuable insights for potential policy adjustments to ensure that China could fulfill its commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Analysis of demand, generation, and emission for long-term sustainable power system planning using LEAP: The case of Bangladesh

The availability of quality power is a foremost need for a nation's sustainable development. The government of Bangladesh has the vision to be a high-income country by 2041. To meet the power challenges in the near future associated with the vision, there should be a well-planned master plan for the power system. Bangladesh has a power system master plan (PSMP) up to 2041. However, it is unclear whether the PSMP is the most adaptable plan considering different power generation scenarios by considering the demand, generation, and emissions. Hence, the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) tool is employed for scenario analyses of Bangladesh's electricity sector from 2022 to 2041. On the demand side, the final electricity demand has been projected as 335.25, 314.76, 376.59, and 398.10 TWh in 2041 for business-as-usual (BAU), low growth (LG), medium growth (MG), and high growth (HG) scenarios, respectively. Considering technical and environmental parameters, eight generation scenarios are also analyzed on the supply side. The analysis projected 58,230 MW capacity for BAU and LG under P1 to P8 generation scenarios and 68,830 MW capacity for MG and HG under Q1–Q8 generation scenarios in 2041. In terms of emission in 2041, 167.4 and 165 MMt CO2 equivalent are found for the P8 scenario in the case of BAU and LG. In Q8, for MG and HG, the emissions are found to be 206.5 and 209.4 MMt CO2 equivalent, respectively. The generation scenarios of P8 for BAU and LG and Q8 for MG and HG are found to be suitable ones with respect to energy reliability and reduced emission. A similar analysis could also be performed to identify suitable power generation plans for other developing countries.

Carbon neutral Bhutan: sustaining carbon neutral status under growth pressures

BackgroundBhutan has pledged to remain carbon neutral (CN) in perpetuity. Whether they can sustain this is questionable due to the country’s increasing economic growth (GDP) and commitment to gross national happiness (GNH) outcomes, both of which can lead to a rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The nexus between GHG, GNH and GDP is the essence of the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals global project.ResultsThrough scenario modelling using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, the study finds that the carbon neutral declaration will derail between 2037 and 2050 without mitigation measures. By putting in place mitigation measures especially in the industry and transport sectors, CN can be retained even under high growth pressure, which may cost just 2% of GDP. CN can be easily retained under low economic growth, but this could undermine GNH. High growth will require immediate interventions to enable electrification of industry and transport.ConclusionsThe options to remain CN will require Bhutan to adopt more efficient technologies and electrify industry and transport under both low and high growth scenarios. The additional cost to the Bhutanese economy is feasible through low and high growth opportunities. The options are similar to those confronting emerging nations struggling with issues of climate commitments under economic growth pressures. All will need to adapt their specific economic contexts to achieve the simultaneous objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals whilst addressing the net zero Paris agenda. Bhutan shows it is possible.

Study of Energy Transition Paths and the Impact of Carbon Emissions under the Dual Carbon Target

In recent years, the world’s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, and energy transition and carbon emission issues have gradually gained attention from various countries. China has promulgated several policies and adopted various reform measures to achieve a comprehensive energy transition and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. Therefore, this study makes researches and forecasts the energy transition and carbon emissions in China under the dual carbon target. A LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning) model is developed to analyze the energy parameters of Beijing under various scenarios and to provide a quantitative analysis basis for the energy transition path. The obtained experimental results indicate that the energy demand under the partial energy transition scenario and full energy transition scenarios are 68.651 million tons of standard coal and 75.759 million tons of standard coal, respectively, forming an effective control, while the carbon emissions both achieve the carbon peak in 2025 at 81.903 million tons and 80.624 million tons respectively, and achieve 46.588 million tons in 2060. The carbon-neutral pathway reaches the carbon peak in 2025, and approaches full energy transition in 2035, and finally reaches the full energy transition control effect in 2060. To date, most of the relevant studies have been conducted in a qualitative way, and the amount of quantitative analysis is insufficient. At the same time, research on the development path specifically at the city level is relatively insufficient as well. Therefore, the present study can provide a theoretical basis for specifying the promotion method of urban energy transformation and the path of carbon emission reduction.

Accounting for China’s Net Carbon Emissions and Research on the Realization Path of Carbon Neutralization Based on Ecosystem Carbon Sinks

Carbon sinks are an important way to achieve carbon neutrality. In this study, carbon emissions in each year from 2019 to 2060 were predicted by constructing the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)-China model. The ecosystem carbon sinks in five representative years of 2012, 2017, 2019, 2030, and 2060 were predicted by reviewing related literature to calculate China’s net carbon emission accounts in these five key years and to quantitatively analyze the path to achieving carbon neutrality in China. The results show that China’s annual carbon emissions will peak in 2028, with a peak of 10.27 billion tons of carbon dioxide; that they will then decrease year by year to 7227 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2060; and that the ecosystem carbon sinks generated by land use are more stable, with a total of approximately 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. To achieve carbon neutrality, a dependence only on ecosystem carbon sinks is insufficient. National energy conservation, voluntary emission reduction by enterprises, and a reliance on new energy and new technologies are needed to ensure the final implementation of China’s carbon neutrality strategy.

Scenario Analysis of a Coal Reduction Share in the Power Generation in Bosnia and Herzegovina until 2050

This paper is effectively a scenario analysis of the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) from the perspective of the possible future reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the power generation sector, with the aim to become climate neutral by 2050, in compliance with the Green Agenda for the Western Balkan. According to the data from 2016, the share of power generation in the total GHG emissions in BiH was approximately 50%. By using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) energy model, two scenarios—the “gradual transition scenario” and the “climate neutral” scenario—have been analyzed for the period 2018–2050, and each scenario included decarbonization measures such as the extensive use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Unlike the climate neutral scenario, the gradual transition scenario includes the replacement of certain parts of the old, currently-in-operation Coal-fired Power Plants (CFPPs) with the new CFPP, which is more efficient. In the climate-neutral scenario, that part of the existing CFPPs is replaced by a mix of RESs. The results from the first scenario suggest that the share of CFPPs in electricity generation has gradually decreased from 69.3% to 16.3% in 2050, and CO2 emissions from the power generation sector in 2050 will be 2.2 million tons—roughly 83.5% less than in 2014. According to the second scenario, the emphasis is strongly on the growth and promotion of RESs, which have significantly taken over the roles of major producers of electricity, encouraging the low-carbon development of BiH. Analysis results show that, in 2050, there will be no CO2 emissions from power generation. It can be concluded that specifically designed energy models for the optimization of capacities and CO2 emissions through convergence towards RESs could be an optimistic and promising option for BiH to become climate neutral while meeting increasing energy demands. The results show the required RES capacities needed for achieving climate-neutral power generation by 2050, with the current rate level of power generation. Based on the results, RES investment needs can be estimated. Overall, the results of the scenarios can be used for the strategic planning of the power generation sector in BiH until 2050.

Supply-demand bilateral energy structure optimization and carbon emission reduction in Shandong rural areas based on long-range energy alternatives planning model

To solve the problem of large carbon emissions in rural area, this paper conducts field research in rural areas of Shandong and embarks on supply-demand bilateral energy structure optimization which combines local resource endowments, the latest rural energy application technologies and energy consumption preference. The study uses long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model to analyze the trend of energy consumption and CO2 emission from 2020 to 2050 under four different scenarios. The results of Tanzhuang show that residents in rural areas still rely on traditional biomass for energy consumption, especially for winter heating. Energy structure optimization has a significant impact on energy saving and emission reduction. Energy consumption and generation are projected steadily up to 2050 under all scenarios while the carbon emissions show a downward trend with a rapid decline from 2021 to 2030 and a relatively stable state for the next 20 years. Combining policy advancement and marginal carbon abatement cost (MACC) of different energy technologies, energy structure optimization-low cost (ESO-LOW) scenario shows a higher emission reduction benefits than the others. Six other villages in Shandong are analyzed in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of supply-demand bilateral energy structure optimization, sensitivity results show that the optimization is significant to the carbon neutrality target and carbon emission reduction.