Energy structure optimization of shandong province by 2035 under double carbon goal

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, based on the existing population size, economic development level, industrial structure, current status of energy production and consumption, and current status of electricity production and consumption in Shandong Province, the LEAP-Shandong model was constructed by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model as a research tool, which is used to forecast the population size, GDP, energy consumption, and electricity structure of different industries in Shandong Province up to 2035 under three scenarios: policy development scenario, energy efficiency improvement scenario, and enhanced low-carbon scenario. The result shows that the population of Shandong province is expected to peak at 10, 426, 000 by 2033, and then slowly decline; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, with an appropriate slowdown in economic development, further optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of energy efficiency can effectively reduce the energy consumption of the terminal energy-using sector in Shandong province. Based on the results, the main recommendations for Shandong’s energy development are as follows: to build a low-carbon industrial system in Shandong in light of new development opportunities; to build a new energy development system in light of Shandong’s energy characteristics; and to promote the low-carbon transformation of Shandong’s energy in light of the new model of the energy industry.