Optimization of energy consumption structure based on carbon emission reduction target: A case study in Shandong Province, China

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It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global warming. This paper investigates Shandong Province, a typical province of energy consumption, as the research object, aiming to optimize total energy consumption and consumption structure in the future planning year. This paper constructs a methodological system to optimize energy consumption structure in Shandong Province, using a scenario combination of system dynamics (SD) prediction and analysis based on the coupling of key scenario elements affecting different energy consumption from different perspectives. Structural equation modeling and SD sensitivity analysis indicate an overlap between key factors restricting energy consumption. Pairing the key scenario factors can better reflect the internal mechanism of energy consumption development. Based on this, 21 scenarios based on different combinations of the key elements are constructed. Through SD prediction and analysis, the most suitable scenario mode for optimizing energy consumption structure in Shandong Province is selected. This paper provides a suitable development range for the average gross domestic product growth rate, the proportion of secondary industry, energy consumption intensity of secondary industry, and the urbanization rate for Shandong Province. This paper can provide a reference for similar research and the government in formulating the optimization scheme of energy consumption structure.