Prediction of Energy Consumption and Structure in Hebei Province Based on GM (1,1) Model

Abstract

With the rapid development of economy, energy demand is increasing in Hebei. Therefore, prediction of energy consumption and structure in Hebei province has importance of actual meaning significance. In this paper, total energy, coal, oil and natural gas consumption data are selected in Hebei province between 2001 and 2013. First, energy consumption and structure in Hebei province are analyzed. Second, GM(1,1)forecast model is established. Then, according to the established forecast model, energy consumption and structure between 2014 and 2021 in Hebei province is predicted. Last, related suggestions on energy optimization are put forward. The results are expected to provide important scientific basis for energy utilization and planning in Hebei province. Introduction Grey prediction is a method that can predict the systems containing uncertainties. To find the laws of system changes, original data is generating processed by identifying development trend of dissimilarity degree between system factors. Thus, data sequence with high regularity is generated. And then the corresponding differential equation model is established to predict future development trend of things. GM (1,1) prediction model with a variable and first-order differential is an important model of grey prediction. It is commonly used in energy and environment prediction because this model requires less modeling information, operates easily, forecasts precisely and is easy to test. In this paper, total energy, coal, oil and natural gas consumption data in Hebei province between 2001 and 2013 are selected as original sequence. GM (1, 1) model is constructed to predict energy consumption and structure in following 20 years in Hebei province. It hopes to provide reference and scientific basis for energy development strategy and the establishment of energy planning in Hebei. Analysis of energy consumption and structure in Hebei province The energy data in Hebei province between 2000 and 2012 are from China energy statistical yearbook. In this paper, all the energy consumption data have been converted into standard coal and the unit is ten thousand tons of standard coal. Table one shows the energy consumption and consumption structure in Hebei province. As shown in table 1, the total energy consumption in Hebei province seems to be increasing annually from 2000 to 2012 and its average annual growth rate is 7.95%. However, the speed of total energy consumption growth is different during the period and it has periodic growth characteristic. From the table, we can see that the growth speed is rapid from 2001 to 2007. Energy consumption structure in Hebei province is basically stable in recent years because of restriction on resources endowment and consumption structure of energy relying mainly on coal cannot be changed. Coal accounts for about 90 percent in energy consumption before 2011, but oil, gas and electricity such clean energy consumption occupies 10 percent of the total energy consumption. This shows that there is no variety in energy consumption structure in Hebei province and energy consumption has many defects. It depends heavily on coal which is non-renewable International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering (ICCSE 2015) © 2015. The authors Published by Atlantis Press 34 energy, so the renewable clean energy strengthened the large market demand, and the development of solar energy utilization technology has a broad prospect. Table.1 Energy consumption and consumption structure in Hebei province Year Total energy consumption Coal Oil Natural gas Electric power Total Proportion Total Proportion Total Proportion Total Proportion 2001 11195.71 10181.38 90.94 914.69 8.17 94.04 0.84 5.60 0.05 2002 12114.29 11125.76 91.84 898.88 7.42 84.80 0.70 4.85 0.04 2003 13404.53 12214.21 91.12 1092.47 8.15 93.83 0.70 4.02 0.03 2004 15297.89 14193.38 92.78 992.83 6.49 100.97 0.66 10.71 0.07 2005 17347.79 15810.78 91.14 1389.56 8.01 130.11 0.75 17.35 0.1