Analysis of the Dependence on Economic Growth in China to Energy Consumption

Recently, the Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2022 National Economic and Social Development (hereinafter referred to as "Communiqués") was published by the National Bureau of Statistics. According to the Communiqués, China’s total primary energy consumption in 2022 amounted to 5.41 billion tons of standard coal. It is projected that by 2025, the total energy consumption will reach approximately 5.84-6.04 billion tons of standard coal. In order to meet the target of non-fossil energy consumption accounting for 20% of total energy consumption by 2025, the installed new energy capacity within operating areas of State Grid Corporation of China is anticipated to exceed the previous estimate by 100-140 million kilowatts. From a risk assessment standpoint, the research team has constructed an evaluation model to gauge China’s new energy development trend, taking into account the accomplishment of the consumption proportion target for non-fossil energy. They delve into the issues brought about by the unexpected development of new energy and put forth pertinent measures to tackle them.

This research focuses on two main lines: national energy supply and demand security under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, as well as national energy green and low-carbon development. The research conducts quantitative prediction on the total demand and energy structure of national fossil energy under low-carbon transformation goals, providing reference for the country to implement green and low-carbon energy transformation and build a new energy system. Based on the national energy security and carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategic objectives, this study uses grey relational analysis to conduct multi-factor analysis and innovatively builds a fossil energy development potential prediction model under the "dual carbon" goal constraints. Three scenarios of robust-sustainable transformation, active-CCUS technology breakthrough, and radical-renewable energy technology breakthrough are designed to analyze the energy development paths under different scenarios, outlining the national energy development path and defining the quantitative targets for the fossil energy development phase. Through multiple model calculations, it is found that in the three scenarios, China's primary energy consumption will peak around 2030, with a peak value of approximately 5.99-6.01 billion tons of standard coal. The total energy consumption demand will slowly decline from 2030 to 2040, and maintain basic stability from 2040 to 2060. In the three scenarios of robust, positive and radical, China's energy consumption in 2030 is respectively 6.01, 5.99 and 6.01 billion tons of standard coal, of which non-fossil energy accounts for 24.9%, 27.0% and 28.3% respectively. By 2060, China's energy consumption will be approximately 5.63, 5.8, and 5.87 billion tons of standard coal, with non-fossil energy accounting for 73.6%, 80.0%, and 85.2% respectively. In response to the challenges facing the adjustment of the national energy supply and demand structure, this research has proposed corresponding development strategies from the three aspects of policy system, industrial layout, and technological innovation. The research results of this project have strong forward-looking, strategic and guiding significance, providing a theoretical basis for the country's energy transformation and development under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, with significant comprehensive benefits.

With the rapid development of economy, energy demand is increasing in Hebei. Therefore, prediction of energy consumption and structure in Hebei province has importance of actual meaning significance. In this paper, total energy, coal, oil and natural gas consumption data are selected in Hebei province between 2001 and 2013. First, energy consumption and structure in Hebei province are analyzed. Second, GM(1,1)forecast model is established. Then, according to the established forecast model, energy consumption and structure between 2014 and 2021 in Hebei province is predicted. Last, related suggestions on energy optimization are put forward. The results are expected to provide important scientific basis for energy utilization and planning in Hebei province. Introduction Grey prediction is a method that can predict the systems containing uncertainties. To find the laws of system changes, original data is generating processed by identifying development trend of dissimilarity degree between system factors. Thus, data sequence with high regularity is generated. And then the corresponding differential equation model is established to predict future development trend of things. GM (1,1) prediction model with a variable and first-order differential is an important model of grey prediction. It is commonly used in energy and environment prediction because this model requires less modeling information, operates easily, forecasts precisely and is easy to test. In this paper, total energy, coal, oil and natural gas consumption data in Hebei province between 2001 and 2013 are selected as original sequence. GM (1, 1) model is constructed to predict energy consumption and structure in following 20 years in Hebei province. It hopes to provide reference and scientific basis for energy development strategy and the establishment of energy planning in Hebei. Analysis of energy consumption and structure in Hebei province The energy data in Hebei province between 2000 and 2012 are from China energy statistical yearbook. In this paper, all the energy consumption data have been converted into standard coal and the unit is ten thousand tons of standard coal. Table one shows the energy consumption and consumption structure in Hebei province. As shown in table 1, the total energy consumption in Hebei province seems to be increasing annually from 2000 to 2012 and its average annual growth rate is 7.95%. However, the speed of total energy consumption growth is different during the period and it has periodic growth characteristic. From the table, we can see that the growth speed is rapid from 2001 to 2007. Energy consumption structure in Hebei province is basically stable in recent years because of restriction on resources endowment and consumption structure of energy relying mainly on coal cannot be changed. Coal accounts for about 90 percent in energy consumption before 2011, but oil, gas and electricity such clean energy consumption occupies 10 percent of the total energy consumption. This shows that there is no variety in energy consumption structure in Hebei province and energy consumption has many defects. It depends heavily on coal which is non-renewable International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering (ICCSE 2015) © 2015. The authors Published by Atlantis Press 34 energy, so the renewable clean energy strengthened the large market demand, and the development of solar energy utilization technology has a broad prospect. Table.1 Energy consumption and consumption structure in Hebei province Year Total energy consumption Coal Oil Natural gas Electric power Total Proportion Total Proportion Total Proportion Total Proportion 2001 11195.71 10181.38 90.94 914.69 8.17 94.04 0.84 5.60 0.05 2002 12114.29 11125.76 91.84 898.88 7.42 84.80 0.70 4.85 0.04 2003 13404.53 12214.21 91.12 1092.47 8.15 93.83 0.70 4.02 0.03 2004 15297.89 14193.38 92.78 992.83 6.49 100.97 0.66 10.71 0.07 2005 17347.79 15810.78 91.14 1389.56 8.01 130.11 0.75 17.35 0.1

This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

Research on the prospects of low-carbon economic development in China based on LEAP model

Assessments of primary energy consumption and its environmental consequences in the United Arab Emirates

Using the time serial data of Shanghai from 1978- 2010, this paper studies the long-term equilibrium relationship, short- term dynamic relationship and Granger causality among Shanghai's urbanization, economic growth and the energy consumption. The results indicate that urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption are co-integrated and that in the long-run Shanghai's urbanization and energy consumption Granger cause economic development, and Granger reason running from urbanization to energy consumption and from economic development to urbanization, and that in the short-run there is bi-directional Granger causality between Shanghai's urbanization and energy consumption. Index Terms - Energy consumption, Urbanization, Economic growth, Causality, Cointegration. I. Introduction The energy consumption is rising sharply with the rapid development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization in Shanghai City. The total quantity of energy consumption in Shanghai City was 54,994,800 tons of standard coal in 2000, and it increased to 111,608,700 tons of standard coal in 2010. Shanghai's energy is extremely scarce, taking the year 2010 as an example, the primary energy output of Shanghai City is only 723,900 tons of standard coal, and the vast majority of the required energy relies on the transfer from other provinces or the importation from other countries. It can be predicted that the economic growth and the further acceleration of urbanization in Shanghai City would inevitably lead to the sharp rise of its energy consumption, and the imbalanced state between energy supply and demand would be even more serious. Such restrictions on the energy input caused by the imbalance of supply and demand would inevitably affect the rate of economic growth and the progression of urbanization in Shanghai City. Therefore, the relationship among energy consumption, economic development and urbanization is studied by combining the situation of economic development and the progression of urbanization in Shanghai City, and the growth trend of energy demand is grasped on the basis of the study, so as to provide a scientific decision-making basis for relevant government departments, which has great significance for both the long-term planning of Shanghai's economy and the strategy making of energy development. Therefore, Shanghai City is taken as an example in this paper, according to the relevant annual data during 1978-2010, quantitative analysis on the relationship among urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption is carried out by applying the vector regression model (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM), and some relevant policy suggestions are proposed on the basis of empirical basis.

Technological gap, scale economy, and China's industrial energy demand

This article examines the short- and long-run association among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth through deploying the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using combined (aggregated) and separated (disaggregated) energy consumption data for Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2014. The ARDL bounds tests and Johansen cointegration tests found long-run relationships among the variables. In the long-run, total energy consumption and primary coal consumption produce statistically significant positive relationships with carbon emissions. However, petroleum consumption demonstrates a statistically significant negative association with carbon emissions. The results show the validity of the EKC in total energy and primary coal consumption in the long-run but are invalid for petroleum consumption. In the short run, the findings reveal that total energy, primary coal and petroleum consumption have statistically significant positive relationships with carbon emissions. Furthermore, in the short run, the EKC is evident in petroleum consumption but invalid in both total energy and primary coal consumption. The short- and long-run Granger causality tests results based on the VECM are also discussed. The article concludes that, if carbon emissions are to be reduced in developing economies, alternative energy sources in the form of green technologies should be adopted as substitutes for coal and petroleum.

This article examines the short- and long-run association among carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth through deploying the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) using combined (aggregated) and separated (disaggregated) energy consumption data for Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2014. The ARDL bounds tests and Johansen cointegration tests found long-run relationships among the variables. In the long-run, total energy consumption and primary coal consumption produce statistically significant positive relationships with carbon emissions. However, petroleum consumption demonstrates a statistically significant negative association with carbon emissions. The results show the validity of the EKC in total energy and primary coal consumption in the long-run but are invalid for petroleum consumption. In the short run, the findings reveal that total energy, primary coal and petroleum consumption have statistically significant positive relationships with carbon emissions. Furthermore, in the short run, the EKC is evident in petroleum consumption but invalid in both total energy and primary coal consumption. The short- and long-run Granger causality tests results based on the VECM are also discussed. The article concludes that, if carbon emissions are to be reduced in developing economies, alternative energy sources in the form of green technologies should be adopted as substitutes for coal and petroleum.

Energy is one of the important factors affecting economic growth, the motive force of the economic development of countries in the world, essential for the world economic development and people’s living material resources, an important resource of the relationship between the national economies. The paper sums up the evaluation and literatures on energy consumption and economic growth at home and abroad, thinks “southern talk” as the energy consumption and economic growth in the time division, makes a series of empirical tests on the relationship between total energy consumption and economic growth in China from 1978 to 1991 and from 1992 to 2016.The results show that total energy consumption is a one-way causal relationship between economic growths in china, Economic growth has a strong dependence on energy, there is a co-integration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. However, economic growth depends on the energy consumption decreased year by year in China, The way of economic growth is changing from the extensive economic growth mode to intensive mode of economic growth.

This article took the lead to study the relationship between new energy consumption, traditional energy consumption and economic growth in China from 1990 to 2012, employed methods of regressive model and Granger causality estimation. Econometric software—Eviews 6.0 was used during the calculation process. The empirical study showed that both new energy consumption and traditional energy consumption could promote economic growth in China. However the influences of new energy consumption and traditional energy consumption on Chinese economic growth have the asymmetry. The effect of new energy consumption on economic growth was lower than that of traditional energy consumption. In the short term, new energy consumption was the Granger causality of economic growth in China. However economic growth was also the Granger causality of new energy consumption in the long term. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable development and low carbon economy in China, it is imperative to make new energy sources play a more important role in economic growth and replace traditional energy sources gradually.

This article examined the relationships involving carbon emissions, economic growth and energy consumption by employing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in South Africa from 1980 to 2014. The auto regressive distributed lag approach and Johansen cointegration tests proved that the variables are cointegrated. The article findings show that combined (total energy consumption) and hydrocarbon gas and petroleum consumption demonstrates evidence of EKC in the long‐run. Other separated data (primary coal, secondary coal, and electricity consumption) show no evidence of the EKC in the long‐run. Primary coal, secondary coal, electricity and hydrocarbon gas consumption develop positive and statistically significant relationships with carbon emissions in the long‐run but the case of total energy and petroleum consumption was negative and statistically significant. The short‐run results illustrate that combined (total energy consumption) and hydrocarbon gas consumption indicate evidence of EKC. Other separated data (primary coal, secondary coal, electricity, and petroleum consumption) show no evidence of the EKC in the short‐run. Short‐run results also indicated that total energy, primary coal, secondary coal, and electricity consumption report positive and statistically significant relationship with carbon emissions but hydrocarbon gas and petroleum consumption indicate positive but insignificant associations. Granger causality test based on vector error correction method (VECM) are also presented to ascertain causality. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 38: 30–46, 2019 Highlights The EKC hypothesis was examined in South Africa by employing energy combined and separated data. The EKC is supported in energy combined data in both short and long‐run but varies in separated data. Primary coal, secondary coal, electricity and hydrocarbon gas consumption develop positive and statistically significant relationships with carbon emissions in the long‐run. Total energy and petroleum consumption generate negative and statistically significant associations with carbon emissions in the long‐run. Total energy, primary coal, secondary coal and electricity show positive and statistically significant relationship with carbon emissions in the short‐run. Hydrocarbon gas and petroleum consumption indicate positive but insignificant association with carbon emissions in the short‐run. Granger causality tests based on VECM are also discussed.

From the beginning of creation, human beings have realized the importance of energy for survival. They have always devoted a significant part of their energy to provide the required energy. Moreover, it can be said that energy resources have an essential role in the life and evolvement of societies. On the contrary, with the depletion of energy resources, severe environmental pollution caused by the consumption of petroleum products, and high cost of energy in the production cycle, allocating these resources must be carried out carefully. This paper aims to look at the connection between energy consumption and sustainable economic welfare in OPEC countries (Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ecuador, and Venezuela) during 2019–2009, utilizing the panel data method. Finally, we presented a CNN architecture for forecasting welfare levels in the case study countries. As a result, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth among selected countries from energy-producing countries was compared in this analysis, which used the standard Granger causality test and the Granger causality test in several domains. The findings suggest that economic growth and inflation positively impact energy consumption in the countries studied. In addition, energy consumption positively impacts these countries’ sustainable economic welfare, while inflation has a negative effect. In addition, the findings of the standard Granger causality test indicate a one-way causal association between energy consumption and economic development in Iran and Venezuela, as well as one-way causality from GDP to energy consumption in Ecuador, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Also, based on the results of the CNN method, the RMSE are 1.75, 3.81, 1.39, 0.52, 0.69, and 1.72 for Ecuador, Emirates, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Venezuela, respectively.

Research on the building energy efficiency design strategy of Chinese universities based on green performance analysis