Abstract
This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.
Highlights
The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model provides a consistent framework to analyze the economic impacts of energy and environmental policy
The exogenous parameters in this model include the substitute elasticities of productive functions, Armington functions and constant elasticity transformation (CET) functions, the growth rate of labor force, total factor productivity (TFP), structure coefficients of intermediate input and output, inhabitants’ savings rate, the trade surplus
The energy consumption intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and carbon emissions intensity per unit of GDP continually decrease, energy consumption structure and the industrial structure will be gradually optimized, total energy consumption will rise with economic growth, the carbon dioxide emissions will still be large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction will be grim
Summary
The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model provides a consistent framework to analyze the economic impacts of energy and environmental policy. Liang et al [22] established a dynamic CGE model to simulate a carbon tax policy in China, and compared the macroeconomic effects of different carbon tax schemes as well as their impacts on the energy- and trade-intensive sectors. By constructing a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, Lu et al [23] explored the impact of carbon tax on Chinese economy, as well as the cushion effects of the complementary policies. China is in a specific period of transition from a planned to a market economy, and the market equilibrium mechanism is not perfect In this case, the simulation results of a dynamic CGE model may be quite different from the actual situation.
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