Accounting for China’s Net Carbon Emissions and Research on the Realization Path of Carbon Neutralization Based on Ecosystem Carbon Sinks

Abstract

Carbon sinks are an important way to achieve carbon neutrality. In this study, carbon emissions in each year from 2019 to 2060 were predicted by constructing the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System)-China model. The ecosystem carbon sinks in five representative years of 2012, 2017, 2019, 2030, and 2060 were predicted by reviewing related literature to calculate China’s net carbon emission accounts in these five key years and to quantitatively analyze the path to achieving carbon neutrality in China. The results show that China’s annual carbon emissions will peak in 2028, with a peak of 10.27 billion tons of carbon dioxide; that they will then decrease year by year to 7227 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2060; and that the ecosystem carbon sinks generated by land use are more stable, with a total of approximately 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. To achieve carbon neutrality, a dependence only on ecosystem carbon sinks is insufficient. National energy conservation, voluntary emission reduction by enterprises, and a reliance on new energy and new technologies are needed to ensure the final implementation of China’s carbon neutrality strategy.