Estimated evolution of total pollutant gas emissions associated with vehicle activity in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre until 2030.

Angel D Chovert,Marcelo F Alonso

doi:10.1590/0001-3765201720160117

Angel D Chovert, Marcelo F Alonso

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765201720160117

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Abstract

In recent years, the majority of economic sectors in Brazil have gone through processes of development and transformation. These processes have led to increases in environmental pollution of all kinds; air pollution being one of the most adverse. The Brazilian transportation sector, which heavily affects the air quality, experienced a significant increase in its vehicle fleet thus provoking larger emissions of pollutant gases, mainly in regions with high population density such as the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre (MRPA). Within this research, considering mainly the ozone precursor species and Carbon Monoxide and using the year 2001 as a base year, scenarios are obtained for vehicular emissions of pollutant gases in the MRPA until the year 2030. In addition, scenarios related to the evolution of the study region's vehicle fleet were estimated. The statistical tool LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) was used. The scenario analysis shows that the vehicle fleet will grow exponentially until 2030, considering that the Light Flex vehicles category will mainly contribute to this increase. It is also noted that vehicle emissions of CO, NOx, and THC decrease in the region. The decrease is caused mainly by the renewal of technology in new vehicles and the implementation of emission control programs created by the government.

Highlights

In the environmental pollution, the air pollution has an important role, it affects considerably and in different ways the life of organisms
Considering the scenarios of evolution of the vehicular fleet and using information of parameters related to different types of vehicles as (i) autonomy, (ii) usage intensity and (iii) emission factors, there were obtained emission scenarios related to vehicular activity until 2030 for carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and total hydrocarbons species (THC) in the RMPA
Regarding the category referring to the Light Commercials, the scenario reproduces a raise of the fleet, mainly utilizing diesel as its fuel with a lower price in the marketplace – and that proportionate a bigger potency

Summary

Introduction

The air pollution has an important role, it affects considerably and in different ways the life of organisms. In polluted environments, such as big urban areas, human health can be severely damaged in medium and long terms, product of the quasi permanent poor air quality. The air quality depends primarily on the emissions of contaminating gases, classified according to the source: anthropic (caused by the man’s influence) or naturals (e.g. volcanic and biogenic). Each source contributes in a different and specific way with the total pollutants emission in a determined urbanized region; the estimation of this contribution demands. The last one depends on a vast set of factors, such as, fuel prices, environmental policies, development of the industry and the progress level of technology

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