Long Term Projection of Electricity Generation Sector in East Kalimantan Province: LEAP Model Application

Abstract

East Kalimantan is a province in Kalimantan that use fossil energy based as electricity power producer is very high. The implication is dependency against fossil energy. This consumptive culture must be limited, when discovery of proven and unproven fossil energy reserve is going to decreased. Developing renewable energy plant for supporting electricity sector is highly recommended. This paper aim is to make a projection the electricity power generation sector and greenhouse gases emission reduction in 2035. This paper is exploratory of East Kalimantan electricity sector with two development scenarios, Business As-Usual (BAU) scenario and Renewable Energy (RE) Mix scenario. The research scope consists of demand rate, supply rate and CO2 emission in both of scenarios. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) is used to calculate both scenarios of electricity demand and supply rates, and greenhouse gases (GHG's) emission in along 2015–2035 period. LEAP calculated two scenarios of energy planning, business as usual (BAU) scenario and renewable energy (RE) mix scenario. Additional capacity planning of reserve plants is following the RUPTL 2017–2026 data for BAU scenario, while the RE mix is alternative scenario based on 23% utilization of renewable energy potential in East Kalimantan. In the result, LEAP processed the simulation of the output feedstock fuel of electricity generation and the greenhouse gases emission in both of scenarios. Conclusion, the composition of electricity generation based on both scenarios fulfill the electricity demand in East Kalimantan, but the implementation of RE mix scenario will reduced 53,21% from 2,3848 million metric ton CO 2 equivalent become 1,1158 million metric ton CO 2 equivalent.