Nuclear Strategy Research Articles

North Korea's Evolving Perception of China: From Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un and the Evolution of Pyongyang's Nuclear Strategy

North Korea has shown more aggressive nuclear behavior during the Kim Jong Un era as has been evident in the rapid acceleration of its nuclear weapons development and its delivery system diversification, especially in 2016. This study seeks to determine why was there such an urgency in progressing its nuclear capability in the first few years following Kim Jong Un's ascent to power after the death of his father in 2011. It confines its research scope to Pyongyang's external motivations - its political and economic relations with the biggest regime backer, China - to conduct an academic investigation on whether Kim Jong Un's North Korea could still perceive China as a reliable patron. It concludes that the bilateral political and economic relations took a notable and simultaneous downturn, prompting it to focus on internal balancing, exemplifying the core principles of the IR theory of defensive realism.

Ядерная стратегия КНДР и готовность к применению ядерного оружия

Active efforts by both countries on the Korean Peninsula to build up military capabilities over recent years have increased the conflict potential of Northeast Asia and raised the possibility of conflict, including one involvingnuclear weapons use. In connection with the nuclear status and perception of the DPRK in the expert community, especially in the West, it is customary to speculate about the outbreak of the conflict on its initiative. However, the intentions of the DPRK leadership and readiness to use nuclear weapons should be assessed not on the basis of official rhetoric, which is part of propaganda and information warfare, but on the basis of nuclear strategy. The present article attempts to identify the real nuclear strategy of the DPRK based on the analysis of its nuclear doctrine and trends in the development of the nuclear and missile program.

Possession of Nuclear Deterrence as Security Dilemma: Impacting Regional Stability of South Asia

This paper uses qualitative research tools to unearth the nuanced features of nuclear deterrence and security dilemmas in South Asia. The study focuses on India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, the historical background of nuclearization, the basics of deterrence in today's context as well as an elaborate analysis of their security landscape. The research focuses on the more complex question of ‘Nuclear Strategy and Regional Stability: What is India Thinking?’ in its precis, and involves qualitative analysis through case studies like the Kargil Conflict. The paper elaborates further on the part of international actors with reference to nuclear non-proliferation and potential challenges in the days ahead. By prioritizing qualitative data, this paper shows that the security dilemma remains a potent force and one that requires collective endeavors to address regional insecurities and foster greater peace across South Asia.

French Nuclear Strategy: The Making of a ‘Consensus’ (1972–1988)

ABSTRACT This article presents the first critical explanation of the construction of a French nuclear ‘consensus’ in the 1970s and 1980s. It draws on known sources, apart from a few interviews, but above all it puts forward a new question: what is the role of domestic politics in French foreign policy and defence choices? It demonstrates the artificial construction of general assent to meet national political objectives. These findings suggest that what is called ‘consensus’ is in fact the end of the debate and not the adherence of the whole population to the strategic doctrine of deterrence.

Australia and the US nuclear umbrella: from deterrence taker to deterrence maker

ABSTRACT Historically, Australia's approach to extended nuclear deterrence can be seen as a consumer rather than contributor within the framework of its alliance with the United States. Despite invoking the nuclear umbrella in strategic guidance since the early 1990s, successive Australian governments have been reluctant to engage with operationally supporting extended nuclear deterrence and content to point to the Joint Facilities as evidence of Australia's contribution. The changing nature of the Indo-Pacific strategic balance means that this approach is increasingly misaligned with contemporary strategic risks and Australia's evolving strategic focus on deterrence. The recent intensification of defence and force posture cooperation between Canberra and Washington presents a window of opportunity for Australia to redefine its approach to the nuclear umbrella in the context of a more holistic understanding of mutual commitments in the alliance. This article outlines how Australia should bolster its contribution through more structured dialogue with the US on nuclear strategy and mutual expectations, supporting preparation for and potential execution of US nuclear operations in the Indo-Pacific, and returning to a formal position of opposing the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Exploring the Driving Forces Behind Iran’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy: A Novel Methodological Approach

ABSTRACT The perplexing nature of Iran’s nuclear program is evident in its simultaneous growth of enrichment capacity and the concurrent denial of any aspirations toward nuclear weapons development. This conundrum calls for a rigorous examination of Iran’s deterrence policy and the identification of obstacles hindering the adoption of a nuclear deterrence strategy. The present study’s contribution is thus twofold. Firstly, employing a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and the Delphi technique, it delves into the intricacies of Iran’s nuclear policy and identifies thirteen driving factors inhibiting the development of nuclear weapons. Secondly, by employing the DEMATEL technique, the article determines the importance of individual factors on Iran’s nuclear strategy as well as the causal relations among them. This study, which draws on the analysis of original data, concludes by highlighting the pivotal role of the Shia religion and the ideology of leaders in Iran’s way of war and deterrence strategy.

Transformation of Iran's Foreign Policy Post-Ebrahim Raisi: Analysis of Nuclear Strategy, International Relations, and Middle Eastern Geopolitics

In the midst of constantly changing global political dynamics, foreign policy becomes a primary reflection of how a country navigates international challenges and opportunities. Under Raisi's leadership, Iran was known for its hardline and confrontational approach towards the West, while strengthening its relationships with Eastern powers such as China and Russia. Raisi's approach also focused on increasing economic self-sufficiency through resistance to international sanctions. Following Raisi's death, Iran is at a critical juncture in determining the direction of its foreign policy. Therefore, this research aims to analyze Iran's foreign policy after Raisi's leadership to understand whether Iran will continue the hardline strategy implemented by Raisi or adopt more moderate foreign policy reforms. This study focuses on the implications for nuclear strategy, relations with Western countries, and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Using foreign policy theory and policy analysis approaches, this research is expected to provide an in-depth understanding of the direction of Iran's foreign policy post-Raisi's leadership, as well as the potential adoption of more moderate strategies in facing international challenges and opportunities. The research reveals that under President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's foreign policy blends pragmatism with traditional ideological principles. His administration is committed to alleviating economic pressures from Western sanctions through inclusive diplomacy and constructive dialogue, aiming to ease or remove these sanctions and revive the JCPOA to enhance economic stability. Regionally, Pezeshkian supports the Axis of Resistance, reinforcing Iran's influence in the Middle East by backing allied militias and fostering strategic alliances with global powers like Russia. Pezeshkian's approach balances military support for regional allies with economic diplomacy to secure Iran's strategic and economic interests.

STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATIONS: INDIA'S PURSUIT OF COUNTERFORCE TARGETING AND REGIONAL STABILITY

In the intricate web of South Asia's security dynamics, India and Pakistan's relationship holds the key to equilibrium. Geographical proximity demands swift responses, prompting India's strategic shift towards Counterforce targeting. Official declarations and military posturing attest to India's resolute commitment to recalibrate its deterrence doctrine. This study critically examines the origins of India's Counterforce targeting strategy, drawing from existing literature and employing theoretical frameworks, including posture optimization, escalation ladder, superiority-brinkmanship, mathematical game theory, rational choice theory, and nuclear deterrence. These models collectively contribute to understanding the implications of India's pursuit of nuclear superiority for coercive diplomacy with Pakistan. Beyond enriching the understanding of South Asia's security, this research unravels the interplay between evolving nuclear strategies, the fluid dynamics of deterrence, and nuanced geopolitical ambitions. By deciphering India's counterforce targeting approach, this study fosters a nuanced discourse on South Asian strategic stability, offering insight into the pivotal role of nuclear deterrence in shaping the region. Bibliography Entry Ashraf, Mubeen and Syed Saif ul Haq. 2023. "Strategic Transformations: India's Pursuit of Counterforce Targeting and Regional Stability." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 14-26.

AI and the bomb: nuclear strategy and risk in the digital age

AI and the bomb: nuclear strategy and risk in the digital age

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program: From Coercive Diplomacy to Missile Diplomacy

Iran’s ballistic missile program can be considered an integral part of its nuclear strategy, because ballistic missiles are capable of carrying multiple warheads. This is why the Iranian missile issue is considered one of the most prominent international issues that can destabilize the region and the world. Consequently, the international community, led by the US, has been trying to reduce this risk since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) through a policy of coercive diplomacy. This paper is an attempt to assess the level of effectiveness of coercive diplomacy in resolving the Iranian missile case from the signing of the JCPOA deal in July 2015 until July 2023. It indicates that the policy has not been highly successful in achieving its aims, and Iran has continued its efforts to increase its missile capabilities, pursuing missile diplomacy in order to achieve its regional and international goals. This study employs a qualitative methodology. The findings highlight that coercive diplomacy fails to compel Iran to abandon its missile program and, instead, incentivizes Iran to further develop its missile capabilities.

Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: China’s Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer. Implications for U.S. Nuclear Strategy. A Report of a Study Group. Livermore, CA: LLNL, Spring 2023

<b>Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory:</b> China’s Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer. Implications for U.S. Nuclear Strategy. A Report of a Study Group. Livermore, CA: LLNL, Spring 2023

Challenging Nuclear Bromides

Despite the universal implications of nuclear weapons for humanity, broad knowledge of nuclear policy is curiously absent from the public sphere and even among many senior figures in government. Nuclear strategists have nourished the belief that the principles of nuclear deterrence are so esoteric as to exempt them from non-expert scrutiny, creating an intellectual vacuum within which a number of fallacies about nuclear strategy have taken root. These fallacies in turn find expression in the configuration of several states’ nuclear postures, from the number of warheads posited as necessary for deterrence to the selection of adversary targets. Puncturing the myth of complexity that surrounds nuclear policy is a necessary starting point to assess its more questionable features. This essay evaluates some of the prevailing tenets of nuclear strategy to expose for non-experts the many misconceptions that shape the major powers’ strategic postures.

Russia's Nuclear Strategy: Changes or Continuities

Contemporaneous events such as the invasion of Ukraine in 24 February 2022 by Russia has brought to the front debates and discussions concerning nuclear weapons and their potential uses in warfare that encompass nuclear strategy, tactics, and doctrines. The current nuclear strategy of Russia has been informed by the nuclear strategies under different leaders of its predecessor state, the Soviet Union. This article attempts to understand the evolution of the USSR’s nuclear strategy and its continuation toward Russia’s strategy; to assesses the reasons behind the changes in Russia’s nuclear strategy in the twenty-first century; to study the major factors that influence the nuclear strategy of Russia under Vladimir Putin; and to evaluate the possible geopolitical implications of the current Russian nuclear strategy.

Moscow’s Perspective on Nuclear Deterrence and War

While the threat of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine remains, it becomes ever more important to address the long history of confusion among Western analysts in trying to understand the Kremlin’s thinking. Anzhelika Solovyeva contends that while the Soviets were more serious and systematic in terms of deterrence than has often been assumed, layered deterrence and theatre-level war-fighting constitute two complementary but different paradigms of Russia’s current nuclear strategy.◼

Identity frame at metaphor layer as the driving force for nuclear strategy: The US nuclear strategy during the cold war

The formation of a nation’s nuclear strategy is understood from a typical structuralist perspective of security strategy studies and international politics. This makes it difficult to not only derive new strategic alternatives but also anticipate what nuclear strategy patterns can be developed in the future. This study aims to deepen our understanding of nuclear strategy formation through causal layered analysis and to present new strategic alternatives to existing discourse. Therefore, this study examines the driving force that influences nuclear strategy formation and changes in implicit cognitive layers. The cognitive variables of identity are derived, and the causal layered analysis framework is used to explain how identity factors give meaning to concepts regarding national security and how the concepts are linked to strategic initiatives. Furthermore, this study assumes that nuclear strategy arises from interactions among the key frame variables in the cognitive layers. The US nuclear strategy cases are examined using this theoretical framework to understand how their interactions have shaped security concepts and been reflected in the nuclear strategy discourse. This study derives propositions that the ingroup definition of identity frames affects nuclear strategy as a driving force and that interpreting the explicit layers’ realities by the implicit frames affects the formation of security concepts and the direction of nuclear strategy.

How Ukraine reveals Russian nuclear strategy

ABSTRACT If we examine the role played by nuclear weapons in Russia's war against Ukraine, we find that they play an offensive role in Russian strategy. The deterrence mission is as much intended to free Russia's hands for conventional war on its periphery as it is intended to prevent a nuclear first strike from the West. Indeed, the evidence of exercises etc. strongly points to a readiness for attacking Western sea-lines of communication in the Atlantic were a Western response to come as a result of the attack on Ukraine. Similarly, the potential for nuclear threat exists in the vicinity of the Black Sea as shown by Russian exercises in advance of the war there and in the Eastern Mediterranean. Those exercises reveal that Moscow's power projection policy into the Levant and beyond is also part of its deterrence strategy and has amongst its objectives protecting the Black Sea as a Russian lake, an inherently offensive posture. Therefore Russia's nuclear strategy in this war and in general stand revealed as offensive ones which the West must reckon with.

Analisis Strategi Nuklir Korea Utara Pasca Perang Dingin: Pengaruh Proliferasi Nuklir Korea Utara Terhadap Stabilitas Keamanan Asia Timur

Studies related to international security that focus on conflict issues, military strategy and nuclear weapons became relevant during the ongoing Cold War. However after the Cold War, issues such as nuclear strategy were no longer a major problem, instead issues like economic, technological, social and human rights became more relevant. Thus, the urgency of describing North Korea’s post-Cold War nuclear strategy and it’s impacts on security stability in East Asia is an interesting discussion. This study aims to describe how North Korea's nuclear strategy post-Cold War and how it affects the security stability of East Asia. Method applied is qualitative with a case study approach which will be anaylzed using the deterrence theory and securit dilemma. The results of the research show that North Korea's post-Cold War nuclear strategy has affected security stability in the East Asia region, which is shown from the responses of Japan, South Korea, and China which experienced a security dilemma from North Korea's nuclear proliferation deterrence. North Korea's post-Cold War nuclear strategy by carrying out nuclear proliferation ultimately created a security dilemma in the East Asian region.

Cold War History Studies in China in the 21st Century: The State of the Field

Abstract This survey explains how the field of Cold War studies has been able to survive and even flourish in the People's Republic of China (PRC) from 2000 to the present, despite all the practical and political obstacles. It reviews several areas that Chinese scholars have been exploring: the economic Cold War; foreign intelligence operations and psychological warfare; nuclear strategies; the sciences during the Cold War and overseas education projects; and China's policies toward neighboring countries during the Cold War. The article outlines the major practical challenges facing Chinese scholars and the potential for overcoming these challenges.

Update on the United States Nuclear Strategy: from NPR 2018 to NPR 2022

The article follows the author's comparative analysis of American and Russian nuclear doctrines and armaments from the fall of 2021. It presents the current nuclear strategy of the United States of America based on a content analysis of three specific areas of the updated version of the Nuclear Posture Review. Applying interpretive analysis and a rich secondary sources apparatus, the author also reflects on his 2021-formulated assumptions and expectations about the further development of American nuclear strategy under President Joe Biden. The author analyzes the influence of the presidential administration's ideological and political ambitions together with the decisive geopolitical events of 2022 and concludes that mainly due to the second factor, the current shape of American nuclear strategy has not undergone any revolutionary changes and continues to maintain a long-standing continuity and consensus about its basic principles.

The meaning of China’s nuclear modernization

ABSTRACT Will China’s nuclear modernization threaten U.S. security? Will it destabilize East Asia, creating new strategic problems for U.S. allies and partners? And will it make conventional war more likely by giving China the confidence to act under the cover of advanced nuclear weapons? Despite the centrality of China in debates over contemporary strategy, there is no consensus answer to these questions. This article surveys U.S perspectives on the meaning of China’s nuclear modernization. It describes three competing interpretations, each reflecting a different theory of nuclear strategy: the Nuclear Revolution; Nuclear Superiority; and the Stability-Instability Paradox. We describe the theoretical logic and empirical evidence in support of each claim, and derive future indicators that could help resolve the debate over China’s intentions as more evidence becomes available. This exercise also reveals some counterintuitive views about China’s nuclear efforts and the prospects for conventional war. The conclusion discusses the implications for theory and policy.