Nuclear Strategy Research Articles

Conceptualizing India’s evolving nuclear strategy under the essentials of minimum deterrence: Limitations and challenges

As India intends to complete its ambitious deterrent force projects such as the development of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Multiple Independently Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), nuclear powered submarines, aircraft carrier, and a number of nuclear reactors as part of its would-be modified Draft Nuclear Doctrine (DND), it is imperative to analyze whether or not India’s shift in its deterrent force posture including that of ambitious deterrent force projects remains consistent with minimum deterrence India earlier conceptualized. This article conceptualizes the rationale of India’s evolving nuclear strategy under the conceptual essentials of minimum deterrence and the limitations to and challenges of India’s ambitious deterrence force posture. Also, the article explores the key factors how and why India might be shifting away from its deterrent force posturing it earlier conceived. However, this article finds that India may not remain consistent with its broader nuclear policy of minimum deterrence conceptualized in its earlier nuclear drafts if it continues to successfully develop these mega deterrent force projects bolstered by sophisticated delivery systems amidst India’s increasing strategic partnership with the US.

Book Review on 'The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters.' Matthew Kroenig.

This manuscript reviews Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters. by Matthew Kroenig. The review analyses the main principles of the newly conceived theory of nuclear-brinkmanship synthesis which endeavours to explain why nuclear superiority matters for United States foreign policy.

Russian nuclear strategy and conventional inferiority

ABSTRACT Contemporary debates on Russian nuclear strategy focus on making sense of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, signalling and nuclear declarations. This paper argues that understanding how nuclear capabilities and strategy interact with conventional capabilities is fundamental to understanding nuclear strategy. It offers the Conventional Balance of Forces thesis for explaining change in Russia’s nuclear strategy after the Cold War. It shows how Russian nuclear debates and strategy decisions have been affected by perceived conventional vulnerabilities, and how the orthodox Western interpretation of Russian nuclear strategy today as one of ‘escalating to de-escalate’ comes short of explaining when Russia would go nuclear in conflict, and why.

North Korea and Reunification

Efforts to denuclearize North Korea continue, but it is highly doubtful whether this goal will be reached. An often-expressed fear of a nuclear-armed North Korea is that it might use this capability to coerce reunification with the South on its terms. Though its leaders often speak of the desire for reunification, North Korea will not and could not pursue a successful nuclear coercion strategy because it carries an inordinate amount of risk, even for Pyongyang, which raises serious doubts about the credibility of its nuclear threats, the possibility of success, and the likelihood of pursuing such a strategy in the first place. And even if North Korea were to succeed, its efforts to integrate the South Korean economy would be a disaster, leading to the end of the North Korean regime.

North Korea’s choice of a nuclear strategy: a dynamic approach

ABSTRACT This study presents an analytical framework for predicting the conditions under which North Korea would choose a particular nuclear strategy. Based on the assessment of North Korea’s strategic environment, which involves its national identity and interests, strategic goals, relations with allies, and military capabilities, the nuclear strategy choice model presented in this study explains how North Korea’s beliefs about its relative capabilities vis-à-vis the US and South Korea determine its strategy regarding the employment of nuclear weapons. As such, this study represents a necessary extension of the prior literature, which has focused on static theories concerning North Korea’s nuclear strategy. This study concludes by offering policy recommendations for dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

김정일 집권 중기 북한의 핵보유 외교전략 및 주변국 정책 -남북방 3각 관계를 중심으로-

김정일 집권 중기 북한의 핵보유 외교전략 및 주변국 정책 -남북방 3각 관계를 중심으로-

Vajpayee, Singh, and Modi: the Prime Minister’s influence on Indian nuclear strategy

ABSTRACT Indian Prime Ministers occupy the pinnacle of India’s government, national security hierarchy, and nuclear command and control infrastructure, which allows them to make decisions that transform Indian nuclear strategy. However, within India’s nuclear decision-making bureaucracy, other actors including India’s nuclear scientists and engineers, the military, and democratic processes can also adjust Indian nuclear strategy which creates rivalry. This article argues that the Indian Prime Minister’s position gives them the ability to influence and direct these various domestic political actors to make a nuclear strategy that suits the Prime Minister’s interests. But as bureaucratic actors actually translate the Prime Minister’s directions into policy, it results in influence often falling short of control in setting nuclear strategy. Applying a bureaucratic model to the making of nuclear strategy, the article’s findings suggest that Prime Ministers have purposefully guided and overseen India’s post-Pokhran-II nuclear strategy beyond a “minimal” credible deterrent outlined in its 1999 official nuclear doctrine.

북한의 최소억제 역량 확보에 대비한 한국의 독자억제책 제안

본 논문은 북한이 대륙간탄도탄(ICBM)과 잠수함발사탄도탄(SLBM)의 완성에 가까워짐에 따라 미국의 확장억제 이행이 어려워지고 있고, 따라서 한국은 독자적 북핵 억제방책을 모색해야 한다는 문제의식에서 작성되었다. 이를 위하여 비핵국가의 핵억제에 관한 이론을 검토하였고, 미국의 확장억제와 이를 무력화하려는 북한의 도전 노력을 살펴본 다음에, 독자적 억제에 관한 한국의 현 실태를 평가하여 한국이 추가적으로 노력해야할 몇 가지 과제를 제시하였다.<BR> 분석의 결과, 북한의 핵능력이 고도화됨에 따라서 미국의 확장억제 이행이 더욱 불확실해지고 있는데, 한국은 독자적 억제 노력을 등한시하고 있다고 진단하였다. 이제 한국은 박근혜 정부 때 정립한 후 중단된 한국형 응징보복(KMPR) 태세를 재강화하고, 그의 구현을 위한 능력을 보강할 필요가 있다. 유사시 조기에 핵무기 개발을 보장할 수 있는 잠재력을 구비해야할 것이다. 또한 예방타격 차원에서 선제타격을 적극적으로 감행할 수 있는 태세를 구비하고, 종심지역에 대한 미사일방어와 핵민방위 태세를 강화함으로써 응징보복의 확실성을 강화할 필요가 있다. 국토 수호에 대한 국민들의 결의를 강화함으로써 북한이 핵무기 공격을 쉽게 감행하지 못하도록 만들 필요가 있다.

Book Review of "The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy. Why Strategic Superiority Matters" by Matthew Kroenig

Matthew Kroenig is among the best regarded names of the modern generation in the nuclear policy and deterrence fields. He is the author of several books and has had a stellar career in both the policy and academic fields, giving him an indubitable edge in translating from English to English - that is, 'policy-ese' English to 'academish' English, and vice-versa. Kroenig is a scholar-practitioner by training having served in the Pentagon, on Presidential campaigns, and currently holding position as Associate Professor at Georgetown University’s Department of Government.

The Iranian nuclear challenge as reflected in the Russian media

ABSTRACT The Middle East is one of the ‘unreliable links’ in the international security system. This became apparent once Iran began developing its nuclear program decades ago, and in recent years, the program has reinforced the challenges to international security. The steps taken by the UN and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as US sanctions have not yet achieved positive results. Although Russia formally supported these sanctions, its political interests and attitude to Iran differ significantly from that of the United States and its allies. Russia seeks to consolidate its position in the region, challenging American policies. This article investigates political contradictions regarding the implementation of Iran’s nuclear strategy and observes the position of the Russian print media as a source of information. Despite the active development of online news in Russia, print media continue serving as a popular information source in the country. This holds especially true for local officials, who are responsible for making government decisions, thus determining our increased interest in these forms of media. The Russian press, when covering the ‘Iranian nuclear issue,’ do not serve as unbiased sources of information, but suggest propaganda influence, albeit flavored with thorough knowledge of the political situation.

Chasing rabbits: The (ill)logic of American nuclear strategy

Chasing rabbits: The (ill)logic of American nuclear strategy

미국의 국가안보와 핵억지 전략의 변화: 트루먼-트럼프 행정부까지

미국의 국가안보와 핵억지 전략의 변화: 트루먼-트럼프 행정부까지

North Korean nuclear strategy: envisioning assured retaliation

AbstractWhat nuclear strategy has North Korea adopted? What factors have driven the development of this nuclear strategy? This article examines the key attributes of Pyongyang’s nuclear program to offer possible answers to these questions of scholarly and practical importance. It argues that North Korea has likely adopted an assured retaliation strategy, threatening a nuclear second strike to deter US nuclear attacks. This strategy was chosen due to its superior feasibility and desirability: it requires only a modest cost-effective nuclear arsenal, reduces Pyongyang’s security dependence on Beijing, permits politically safe centralized control over the nuclear weapons, and is also relatively economical. This article calls into question the common views that North Korea has employed a catalytic strategy using its nuclear capabilities to induce China’s assistance, and that Pyongyang is developing an asymmetric escalation strategy or a brinkmanship strategy, which utilizes nuclear weapons primarily to counter the superior conventional forces of its adversaries.

The limits of regional power: South Africa’s security strategy, 1975–1989

ABSTRACT This article examines the strategic decision-making of the South African regime between 1975 and 1989. Existing scholarship argues that Pretoria was a regional hegemon and that this position underwrote its security strategy. We suggest that scholars have overstated the implications of its regional strength. Using archival documents and interviews with retired military and political elites, we show how Pretoria’s threat perception, conventional military operations, and nuclear strategy were in fact conditioned by an awareness of the limits of its power within the global distribution of power; its isolation in the international system; and fears of conflict escalation vis-à-vis extra-regional threats.

India’s Nuclear Doctrine and Debate of No First Use Policy

India has committed for a ‘No First Use Policy’ (NFU) regarding its nuclear warfare strategy. This has continued since the time India became a nuclear state. India's nuclear doctrine has always played an important role in determining the stability in Asia. Recently the issue has been escalated as India’s Defence Minister gave a statement to media which shows that Indian government could explore other options also regarding its Nuclear Policy. Statement has come at the time when there is abrogation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir has happened letting the tensions to rise between India and Pakistan. This rise in exertion from the side of China and Pakistan has sparked the debate on India's nuclear capability. It raises questions like; does India need to update its doctrine? There is an emerging debate among the strategic community also that India needs to give the NFU policy and even need to make many other changes in the whole doctrine. The NFU policy has often been held as proof of India’s status as a responsible nuclear power. Various factors are to be analyzed before reaching to any conclusion.

No- First Use Policy: Implications for Nuclear Politics and Strategy

This paper analyses the debates on the ‘No-First Use’ (NFU) policy enunciated under India’s nuclear doctrine in the wake of recent statement of Indian defence minister who argued that the doctrine is not writ in stone and therefore can be changed depending on the circumstances. This paper presents the viewpoints of both the moderates- who have argued in favour of adequacy of the doctrine and the NFU principle and the expansionists- who have argued that the NFU needs revision to accord more flexibility under the nuclear doctrine. This paper reiterates that the doctrine has served the Indian strategic interests well and does not need to be revised. It also situates this debate in the domestic politics context and assesses rationale behind it. The paper further argues that a revision of NFU is not only unnecessary but may even be counter-productive to India’s political and strategic interests.

Keynes Goes Nuclear: Thomas Schelling and the Macroeconomic Origins of Strategic Stability

Among the most important ideas in Cold War nuclear strategy and arms control was that of “stability”—the notion that by protecting weapons for use in retaliation, the superpowers would be less likely to fight a thermonuclear war. Conventional wisdom among strategists and historians of strategy has long held that stability was inherent to the logic of rational nuclear deterrence. This essay shows the conventional wisdom to be mistaken. It examines the technical practice of Thomas Schelling, who introduced the stability idea in a classic 1958 paper. Celebrated as a game theorist, Schelling was actually trained as a Keynesian macroeconomic modeler during the second half of the 1940s. In 1958, he used Keynesian techniques to frame deterrence as a stable system of dynamic adjustment, akin to the stable macroeconomic system he had modeled as a young economist. Among Schelling's fellow strategists, stability quickly became popular as a rationalization for their preferred nuclear deployment policies.

The third nuclear age

Since the end of the Cold War, the bipolar competition and cooperation between the United States and Russia have sustained global strategic stability in the second nuclear age. However, destabilizing technologies in the hands of the United States, Russia, and China will markedly change the strategic landscape in the near future. This article asserts that a technology-enabled, multipolar competition will usher in the third nuclear age, which may be identified by three trends: (1) a new arms race with revolutionary weapons that challenge the existing deterrence paradigm; (2) an entanglement of nuclear and non-nuclear force and doctrinal development in the multipolar competition; and (3) a state-driven model of innovation. The article then concludes that new thinking on deterrence geometry, global governance of nuclear nonproliferation and arms control, and nuclear strategy will be needed to maintain strategic stability in the third nuclear age.

What Happened to Soviet Security Studies?: An Essay on the State of the Field

Security issues were a central part of Soviet studies. This article considers how the study of security issues has changed with respect to Russia and Eurasia since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. It highlights a series of positive changes: a broadening of vision beyond Moscow, more engagement with mainstream social science, greater attention to security issues internal to post-Soviet states, and the creation of an expert community that spans North America, Europe, and Eurasia. At the same time, I argue that scholarship on Russian and Eurasian security issues has become less strategic, in the sense this word is used by Richard Betts – about the interaction of political ends and military means, rooted in an appreciation of military science. The academy, especially in North America, has become a less welcoming place for scholars working on Russia and Eurasia who care about previously central issues in the field such as nuclear strategy, weapons procurement, military doctrine, and defense planning.

Nuclear magnetic resonance assignment strategy for pentacyclic triterpenes, using lup-20(29)-ene from Pilotrichella flexilis as model system, combining spectrally filtered proton-to-carbon schemes and DFT\u2013GIAO approach

The present work comprises a method to obtain full proton-to-carbon nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shift assignment of a C30H50 lup-20(29)-ene, for the first time obtained from the Mexican native mosses Pilotrichella flexilis, wherein said method consists in a combination of the following NMR schemes: 1D-13C (DEPT-135), 2D-{1H–13C} HMBC with a spectral filter for promoting only weak-c.a. 2 Hz-long-range scalar couplings, 2D-{1H–1H} EXSY with long mixing times to favour only weak H–H dipolar correlations and ultra-high resolution one- and two-dimensional 1H instant homodecoupling Psyche pure shift. Full set of assigned resonances were compared against the theoretical isotropic chemical shifts computed with a gauge invariant atomic orbital–density functional theory with self consistent reaction field calculation, retrieving accurate agreements, despite the intrinsic severe signal overlap that these C30 hydrocarbon triterpenes experimentally present. Therefore, a 3D-structure supported by experimental NMR data of this type of important metabolite precursor in plants can be proposed.