Exploring the Driving Forces Behind Iran’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy: A Novel Methodological Approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT The perplexing nature of Iran’s nuclear program is evident in its simultaneous growth of enrichment capacity and the concurrent denial of any aspirations toward nuclear weapons development. This conundrum calls for a rigorous examination of Iran’s deterrence policy and the identification of obstacles hindering the adoption of a nuclear deterrence strategy. The present study’s contribution is thus twofold. Firstly, employing a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and the Delphi technique, it delves into the intricacies of Iran’s nuclear policy and identifies thirteen driving factors inhibiting the development of nuclear weapons. Secondly, by employing the DEMATEL technique, the article determines the importance of individual factors on Iran’s nuclear strategy as well as the causal relations among them. This study, which draws on the analysis of original data, concludes by highlighting the pivotal role of the Shia religion and the ideology of leaders in Iran’s way of war and deterrence strategy.