MICMAC Method Research Articles

The fuzzy Weighted Influence Nonlinear Gauge System method extended with D numbers and MICMAC

The Weighted Influence Nonlinear Measurement System (WINGS) method originates from DEMATEL, which has the advantage of analyzing the interweaved determinants and the causal relationships within them. The innovation is mainly reflected in considering both the strength of the influencing factors themselves and the relationship of their mutual influence. To address the problems of ambiguity in assessing information and uncertainty in the judgment of expert group, this paper proposes fuzzy WINGS improved by D numbers (fuzzy D-WINGS). Combining D numbers with Triangular fuzzy numbers can overcome the limitation of mutually exclusive and collectively extensive set. The WINGS method is used to reveal the interdependent causal relationships by recognizing the orientation and strength of the factors. Utilizing the MICMAC method to draw matrix analysis diagrams can further reveal the relationship among them. Finally, a practical case study is conducted to prove the practicability of this fuzzy D-WINGS–MICMAC method.

Study on risk hierarchy and transmission path of technical transformation project of primary and secondary school classroom based on FISM

Nowadays, advanced information technology and education are gradually integrating. Technology-based instruction is the basic practice of primary and secondary education informatization. However, the application of it still faces many aspects of risks, such as the uneven distribution of technical equipment and high-quality information personnel resources, the immaturity of emerging technologies and operation pattern, the difficulty of raising funds and promotion, etc. Hence, this study identified the list of risks that the project might face, invited experts to score the risk relationship and established the FISM risk hierarchy model. Then, MICMAC method was used to analyze the category distribution of risk factors, and three transmission paths of capital risk, technical risk transmission and policy risk were made.

Seaport Terminals Risks Prioritization Using a Structural Modeling-Based Approach: A Real Case Study

Port risk management (PRM) during port operations is a current problem that can negatively affect the environment, people, and economic issues. In the literature, there is an enormous amount of research related to supply chain risk management (SCRM) in various areas and with various objectives. However, PRM has not received the same degree of attention. In fact, port terminals are crucial links in most supply chain networks and an important pillar of international trade. Therefore, for better risk mitigation efficiency, a risk assessment and prioritization step are vital. Recently in the literature, researchers have applied prospective methods such as structural analysis methods to risk prioritization in SCRM. The aim of this research is to prioritize various man-made risk variables in PRM using a qualitative structural modeling-based approach, specifically, the MICMAC method (referring to its French acronym: Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement). An empirical study was conducted to assesses and prioritize risk variables of the seaport terminals of Sfax (Tunisia). The main contributions of the empirical research are twofold. First, to prioritize the key risk variables to define the most critical ones that require immediate intervention. Second, to analyze the structure of the influences between all identified risk variables. The results for the port terminals of Sfax show that the highest-priority risk variables are the manual handling (Ph3), disregard for safety aspects (Ph4), unsafe storage of goods (Inc1), absence of a prevention system and a rescue organization (Inc2), neglect of the regulatory aspects of handling equipment (M1), ignorance of good handling practices during the operation of loading and unloading (Cho2), and inadequate lifting accessories (Cho3). These risk variables must be the subject of urgent risk reduction strategies.

Green supply chain management implementation: modeling the green supply chain practices (GSCPs)

PurposeThis study aims to identify and recognize the interrelationship between green supply chain practices (GSCPs) and analyze the effect of GSCPs on green supply chain management (GSCM) implementation on the premise of driving and dependence power of GSCPs.Design/methodology/approachThis research identifies twenty GSCPs with the consultation of the team of industry practitioners and academicians. Interpretative structural modelling (ISM) is applied to develop the relationship between GSCPs, which gives the direct and indirect effects of each GSCPs. The result obtained from ISM is used as an input for Fuzzy matriced impacts croises multiplication appliquee a un classement (Fuzzy MICMAC) to identify the driving and dependence power of GSCPs.FindingsAn integrated model has been established using ISM and the Fuzzy MICMAC method to categorize the GSCPs. It reveals the direct and indirect effect of each GSCPs on the execution of GSCM. The result shows that driver GSCPs have deliberate importance because of their driving power and dependent GSCPs are more performance-oriented.Research limitations/implicationsISM model and fuzzy MICMAC analysis depends on the judgment of the professional's team from a single industry. These opinions may be subjective judgments of the experts and any biasing may influence the final result.Practical implicationsThis study gives significant guidance to industry practitioners and academicians. Industry practitioners need to concentrate on these most significant GSCPs for the successful implementation of GSCM. They must also plan for the growth of GSCM by concentrating on all GSCPs. On the other side, academicians may be motivated to categorize other issues which are essential for GSCPs.Originality/valueIn this research, an effort has been made to identify the significant GSCPs for GSCM implementation on a single platform. A huge literature is available on GSCPs, but none of the researchers paid attention to model these GSCPs using ISM and fuzzy MICMAC.

Algerian Pharmaceutical Industry: Prospective Structural Analysis Using MICMAC Method

This work aims to determine the key variables that control the development of the Algerian pharmaceutical industry in the long term using structural analysis by MICMAC method. After listing the variables, filling in the matrix of direct influences, and analyzing the indirect potential plan we select the key variables, which are Research and Development, Consumption, innovation, the level of production, production costs, and marketing/sales. We can add other regulatory variables such as human capital, partnership with foreign countries, research costs, prices, and investment.

Determinants of the Export Performance of Tunisian SMEs: Analysis Trough the MICMAC Method

Exporting companies survive in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable environment, characterized by technological development and acute competition linked to the globalization of economic activities. Exporting has a positive impact on the trade balance of countries, especially in times of crisis, on the level of employment and on the improvement of the standard of living in general. The challenges faced by exporting companies and the actions they need to take in order to be more successful must be systematically addressed. The authors of this article have highlighted the key factors that can help companies to be more competitive and successful in exporting, based on theoretical approaches carried out in this field. The MICMAC method was used to identify the determining factors that can influence the performance of companies in exporting. The variables used in this research were identified based on the review of existing literature. 21 variables were collected and classified into 7themes. The results of the structural analysis were prioritized by performing a sensitivity analysis to prioritize the key factors. It was found that three factors condition the export performance of firms: strategic factors, management profile, commitment and international experience were found to be related to the export performance of the firm. The results of this research were used to develop recommendations for business leaders, practitioners and policy makers. The authors hope that this advice would help Tunisian firms' export performance in the future.

A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest salt lakes, is rapidly losing water and drying up. This environmental hazard has raised concerns about the consequences and impact on the surrounding communities. In this paper, we use a futuristic view (horizon of 10 years based on medium-term planning) to identify the main environmental drivers in the surrounding settlements of the Urmia Lake basin. A qualitative method, based on cross-impact analysis, was used as a means of future research. We also used a Delphi-based expert panel method to collect data and extract the environmental impacts of Urmia Lake. After the three rounds of the Delphi process, the expert panel reached a high level of agreement (100%) on the top 17 environmental consequences. Then, these consequences were classified by driving force and dependency using the MICMAC method. The results show that reducing pasture area, soil and water salinity, groundwater decline and depletion, and destruction of surrounding agricultural lands play a significant role in environmental change in Urmia Lake. Overall, any small change in these variables may lead to fundamental changes in the entire system.

Método MIC MAC aplicado a la identifi cación de variables clave para reducir el abandono estudiantil, caso programa Administración de empresas – UNAD, Colombia

This article unveils key variables identified by MIC MAC method (Matrix of Crossed Impacts Multiplication Applied to Classification) related to student dropout from the business administration program of the National Open and Distance University-UNAD University (Colombia) in the academic years 2017 and 2018. An instrument was designed, which was applied to a sample of 82 students. The form has 19 questions of four, two, five and six items for the individual, academic, socioeconomic and institutional categories respectively. To mitigate student desertion a bet scenario action plan should be formulated taking into account the key variables, where financial, psychological and strengthening actions are involved in the academic component, aligned with the public policy of the National Plan of Development 2018-2022, the Ministry of National Education (MEN) and the Solidarity Academic Pedagogical Project (PAPS) of the institution. An instrument was designed, which is applied to a sample of 82 students. The form has 19 questions of four, two, five and six items for the individual, academic, socioeconomic and institutional categories respectively. To mitigate student desertion it is necessary to formulate an action plan for the bet scenario taking into account the key variables, where financial, psychological and strengthening actions are involved in the academic component, aligned with the public policy of the National Plan of Development 2018-2022, the Ministry of National Education (MEN) and the Solidarity Academic Pedagogical Project (PAPS) of the institution.

Challenges and Opportunities for End-of-Life Coal Mine Sites: Black-to-Green Energy Approach

This paper presents the possibilities of adapting active mines to generate green energy after their closure using their resources and/or infrastructure. For this purpose, firstly, the temporal horizon of selected mines in Poland was determined, its basic assumption being the analysis of the current state. In the research, 18 mining plants operating within 12 mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) were analyzed. The analyzed mines belong to three of the five largest hard coal producers in Poland, and the main object of exploitation is hard coal of energy types. Severe restrictions or even abandonment of further investments in the development of the coal mining industry were taken into consideration (regarding the construction of new shafts or the development of new exploitation levels). When determining the temporal horizon, the challenges that hamper the exploitation based at the levels of natural hazards and depth of exploitation in each mine were considered. Secondly, the criteria for the adaptation of active mines to generate energy are presented. The possibility of using the resources and infrastructural potential of active mines to produce geothermal energy from water, extracting coalbed methane (CBM), and processes of underground coal gasification (UCG) are analyzed. Finally, for a selected example—generating energy from underground coal gasification in Polish mine conditions—a structural analysis of the criteria was performed using the MICMAC method, as the Central Mining Institute has an extensive experience in the development of underground coal gasification trials in coal mines. Based on expert analysis and using structural analysis, the criteria important for UCG were selected. As demonstrated in the article, the MICMAC method can be applied in other scenarios with different criteria to implement new technologies in coal mines.

Interpretive Structural Analysis of Interrelationships of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Iran

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide an ambitious agenda to end poverty and its dimensions and a sustainable, prosperous, and fair future. The aim of our paper is to assess the significance of SDGs from the perspective of Iran. To this end, the method of ISM has been used to express the interrelationships between SDGs. Besides, MICMAC method was utilized to assess dependence and driving power of every SDG. By data analyzing, SDGs were classified into six different levels and were modeled according to the interrelationships between them. Variables then were divided into three groups of dependent, independent/driving, communication, and autonomous variables, and no variable was included in the group of linkage variables. The findings show that SDGs12 and SDGs4 are the most fundamental goals of sustainable development, considering the needs, development stages, capacities of Iran. Achieving them is the basis for achieving other goals.

Systematic analysis of development in Iran’s tourism market in the form of future study: A new method of strategic planning

Future study is vital now more than ever for countries to develop tourism and attract international tourists. The main purpose of this development is to gain benefits, especially economic ones. Modern methods of future study, especially scenario building, are helpful in addressing issues at the national and regional scale because of their flexible strategies. According to the applied nature of the study, data were collected in two ways: reviewing previous studies and using questionnaires. The questionnaires were in the form of a cross-impact matrix and were self-administrated. The data were analyzed using MICMAC analysis and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the MICMAC method indicated that 10 variables have key/predominant roles in terms of influence in the development system of Iran’s tourism market. In the second phase of the study, 34 possible states of the key variables were defined. The results of the Scenario-Wizard method indicated that four scenarios have strong consistencies, and among those only one is a driver that has ideal and desirable characteristics and conditions for implementation.

Simulating the state of jungle cat (Felis chaus Schreber, 1777) using cross-impact analysis in Sistan, Iran

Systems thinking and attention to the relationships between a system’s variables on all spatial and temporal scales is an effective strategy in biological conservation and wildlife management. This study presents a case in a sensitive ecosystem to show how the future state of the jungle cat as an umbrella species depends on local, national, and international components. To this aim, all variables affecting the state of jungle cat were identified by an expert panel. Cross-impact analysis was applied to the identified variables in two stages using MICMAC, followed by Kane’s simulation (KSIM). The MICMAC method was used to detect the most important variables (i.e., variables with more influence and less dependency), and forecasting the future state of jungle cat was implemented by KSIM on variables screened by MICMAC. MICMAC showed that among the 22 identified variables, climate change, increased construction of dams in Afghanistan, water scarcity, and decline of agricultural lands under cultivation were the most important variables for management of jungle cat. KSIM showed declining trends for all variables in the future. Therefore, the predicted decreasing trend will continue as long as management remains unchanged on the local, national, and international scales.

Structural analysis of the development of the Iranian tourism market employing a MICMAC approach: a new long-range planning method to attract the ASEAN international tourist market

PurposeAs tourism development is an unquestionable part of every national growth policy, this study aims to introduce an integrated method employing MICMAC analysis for understanding the key strategic variables of Iran's tourism development system.Design/methodology/approachThe structural analysis with MICMAC method was used to determine the classification of variables, aimed at structuring ideas to deal with complex decision-making and help planners and policymakers formulate future-based strategies.FindingsThe cross-impact matrix was used to identify the development variables having the greatest impact on the development of Southeast Asian tourism to Iran. The results showed that among 43 variables, 10 have great potential as key variables in the future of Iran's tourism development.Research limitations/implicationsMICMAC, as a structural analysis technique, is regarded as being the most appropriate to identify the key variables in the development of the Iranian tourism system. The limitation was that the other tourism markets, apart from ASEAN tourists, and the tourism demand-side were excluded from this study.Practical implicationsThe present study indicates that identifying key factors that influence the supply side of Iran's tourism system is worthwhile. Consequently, the findings show how these key factors can play a vital role in long-range economic sustainability and lead to the development of Iran's tourism market to enhance globally its competitiveness as a destination to attract international ASEAN tourists.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first papers to focus on the development of Iran's tourism market from a supply-side through structural analysis. Its findings are valuable as they can be used by the tourism authorities in the process of developing future tourism scenarios for Iran.

Structural Analysis of Factors Influencing the Costs of Facade System Implementation

External facades of buildings and other structures shape the image of every building, creating the architecture of cities. Traditional concrete forms, as a symbol of durability and stability, have been replaced by lightweight enclosures—for example, in the form of aluminium–glass facades and ventilated facades. In this paper, the authors attempt to verify the strength of influence and relations between the identified factors shaping the costs of facade system implementation using structural analysis. On the basis of the collected quantitative and qualitative data obtained as a result of research on design documentation and cost estimates of implemented public buildings, as well as on the basis of interviews conducted among experts, factors which have a real impact on the costs of facade systems in the form of aluminium and glass facades and ventilated facades were identified. The indicated factors were analysed and classified using the method of structural analysis, namely the MICMAC method (refers to the French acronym for Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification). Particular influences and relations between factors were examined. Finally, six groups of factors influencing the costs of facade systems were identified, including regulatory factors that do not have a very strong impact on the level of costs, but which show a strong correlation with other factors; determinants that have a very strong impact on the costs; and a group of external factors that show the smallest influence on the estimation of façade cost.

L'information comptable et financière face à la prise de décision dans les entreprises Algériennes : cas d'un échantillon d'entreprises de production de la wilaya de Bejaia.

This empirical research aims to establish the influence of accounting and financial information on decision-making in the Algerian companies. To do this, we have developed a questionnaire, in an attempt to assess the relationships between the different variables according to the Micmac method. The results of our survey allowed us to fill in the matrix of direct influences given, to build a system of variables according to the systemic vision, to visualize the results on graphs and plans, as well as to analyze and classify the supports of '' key accounting and financial information for decision making. Finally, an interpretation was made at each stage of the result to explain the direct and indirect influence of this information on decision-making in the companies studied. The results of this research have, however, enabled us to conclude overall that accounting and financial information has a direct and indirect influence on decision-making and the production of accounting data.

Risk assessment of PCP lift system using a fishbone diagram and MICMAC method

Hydrocarbons demand by industrialized and developed nations and the oil prices conditions last few years; many companies have turned again to fields that were not previously considered attractive to produce, to identify them as an alternative to meet that demand. This research shows the identification of a condition, which should be taken into account to produce a mature field by progressive cavity pumping (PCP) artificial lift system, an evaluation with the MICMAC method and the identification of the key variables to achieve the development in this practice. The results make possible to identify highest influence elements, which can guide intervention strategies and form the basis to formulate guidelines and policies for the PCP implementation. The results allow us to conclude that pressures and mechanical designs in field wells should be the guidelines for optimum production, the market rate improvement, and the reservoir productive life.

Drivers of Biomass Power Generation Technologies: Adoption in Colombia

The share of non-conventional renewable energies in Colombia represents less than 4% of electricity generation; the government aims to increase the net installed electricity generation capacity to over 10% by 2028. A structural analysis was carried out for decision-making: international experiences was used to identify Social, Environmental, Technical and Economic indicators and with the MICMAC method, the key variables were identified to define improvement strategies. This research determined the driver elements that will allow Colombia to effectively include biomass as an electrical energy source.

Prospective towards implementation of electric vehicles in Colombia

The effects of climate change have led to reduces fossil fuel in vehicle, developing new technologies such as the electric vehicles. The research presents an identification of barriers and inhibitors according to international experiences, an evaluation with the MICMAC method and the identification of key factors to achieve development of electric vehicles in Colombia. The results allow to identify the elements of high influence, which may guide intervention strategies and be the basis for the formulation of guidelines and policies. The results conclude that the business models for the purchase and sale of energy are the catalyst for the encouraging of the stakeholders, the improvement of the distribution network and the management of the electricity market.

Key Variables on Property Marketing in Bali: Application of Micmac Method

Bali as a tourism area has its own charm and positive economic potential for the property business. Organizational and management aspects are needed to determine business strategies. This certainly affects the decision for investors in investing in the property sector that is most popular. This study seeks to analyze the key variables that affect the development of the property business in Bali in the long run. MICMAC (Matrix of Cross Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) is used to identify variables that influence the sustainability of property marketing in Bali.

Analisis Tipologi Variabel Strategis pada Pengembangan Kawasan Ekowisata Kedung Ombo

The Kedung Ombo Reservoir area, which is rich in natural resources, has the potential to be developed as an ecotourism area, but institutional issues and policy focus bias have hampered its development. This study aims to identify strategic variables in the region and find a description of the interdependent relationship between these variables, which is useful in determining the right policy. Research data were obtained through focus group discussions and workshops. Data analysis using Micmac method. The results of the study determine 31 (thirty one) strategic variables in the development of the Kedung Ombo ecotourism area which are grouped into typologies as follows: (1) determinant variables, consisting of: special regulations and permits; (2) relay variable, consisting of: community involvement, tourism business potential, infrastructure readiness, tourism awareness, transportation, tourists, tourist attractions, accommodation, tourism promotion, tourism services, private investment, governance, coordination, role of apparatus and information; (3) autonomous variables, consisting of: local entrepreneurial abilities, developer's understanding of local norms, natural beauty, environmental carrying capacity, and accessibility; and (4) dependent variables such as: tax income, retribution income, availability of funds for the community, preservation of local wisdom, expansion of employment opportunities, conservation of reservoir functions, forest preservation, welfare improvement, and poverty reduction. This research also produces a sequence of priority scales of these strategic variables which is very useful for policy makers in directing the focus of policies to ensure the successful development of the Kedung Ombo ecotourism in a sustainable manner.