A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

Hossein Nazmfar,Mohammad Hassan Yazdani,Somayeh Mohammadi Hamidi,Christine Fürst,Ahad Rezayan

doi:10.3390/su132011495

Abstract

Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest salt lakes, is rapidly losing water and drying up. This environmental hazard has raised concerns about the consequences and impact on the surrounding communities. In this paper, we use a futuristic view (horizon of 10 years based on medium-term planning) to identify the main environmental drivers in the surrounding settlements of the Urmia Lake basin. A qualitative method, based on cross-impact analysis, was used as a means of future research. We also used a Delphi-based expert panel method to collect data and extract the environmental impacts of Urmia Lake. After the three rounds of the Delphi process, the expert panel reached a high level of agreement (100%) on the top 17 environmental consequences. Then, these consequences were classified by driving force and dependency using the MICMAC method. The results show that reducing pasture area, soil and water salinity, groundwater decline and depletion, and destruction of surrounding agricultural lands play a significant role in environmental change in Urmia Lake. Overall, any small change in these variables may lead to fundamental changes in the entire system.

Highlights

Salt lakes are a significant part of the earth’s inland aquatic ecosystems and are found worldwide
The dynamics of salt lakes are of great importance to a wide range of stakeholders [2]
Other major hypersaline systems, such as the Great Salt Lake, offer various waterfowl habitats that can be exploited for minerals

Summary

Introduction

Salt lakes are a significant part of the earth’s inland aquatic ecosystems and are found worldwide. These lakes play a pivotal role in determining regional climate patterns, maintaining biotic productivity and diversity, sustaining ecological and human health, and providing recreational services, minerals, and other resources [1]. The dynamics of salt lakes are of great importance to a wide range of stakeholders [2]. Other major hypersaline systems, such as the Great Salt Lake, offer various waterfowl habitats that can be exploited for minerals. Flamingos and other birds live in small Andean salars and lakes in the Middle East and Africa [3]. We witness that salt lakes are shrinking

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