Strategic Foresight Research Articles

The transformative potential of artificial intelligence

The terms ‘human-level artificial intelligence’ and ‘artificial general intelligence’ are widely used to refer to the possibility of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) with potentially extreme impacts on society. These terms are poorly defined and do not necessarily indicate what is most important with respect to future societal impacts. We suggest that the term ‘transformative AI’ is a helpful alternative, reflecting the possibility that advanced AI systems could have very large impacts on society without reaching human-level cognitive abilities. To be most useful, however, more analysis of what it means for AI to be ‘transformative’ is needed. In this paper, we propose three different levels on which AI might be said to be transformative, associated with different levels of societal change. We suggest that these distinctions would improve conversations between policy makers and decision makers concerning the mid- to long-term impacts of advances in AI. Further, we feel this would have a positive effect on strategic foresight efforts involving advanced AI, which we expect to illuminate paths to alternative futures. We conclude with a discussion of the benefits of our new framework and by highlighting directions for future work in this area.

Assessing futures literacy as an academic competence for the deployment of foresight competencies

The diversity of methods and the absence of clear-cut classifications specific to futures studies (FS) complicates its consolidation as an established field (Poli, 2018). Since 2000, several attempts have been made to bring some coherence to the field through the provision of important concepts, models, and theories that can encompass its great diversity. The Futures Literacy Framework (FLF) developed by Miller (Miller, 2018; Miller & Sandford, 2019) and the Foresight Competency Model (FCM; Hines et al., 2017) are clear examples of this effort. This paper attempts to assess whether the alumni of a graduate degree programme on strategic foresight and FS developed futures literacy (FL), defined as a capability that can be learned, by deploying foresight competencies. Drawing from methods in the FS field and the anticipatory assumptions of the FLF, we offer an empirical account of the abilities that fit in this set of competencies, as defined by the FCM, by using confirmatory factor analysis. In addition, we test whether there is an association between foresight methods and competencies using linear models. The data were obtained from web surveys conducted among alumni from a master’s programme in strategic foresight and FS in Mexico. Overall, the evidence suggests that specific abilities correctly fit into a defined set of competencies, and the foresight methods used by alumni explain foresight competencies to some extent.

Foresight for corn-to-ethanol mills in the Southern Brazilian Amazon: Energy, economic and environmental analysis

A sustainable expansion of corn-based and sugarcane-based ethanol production could induce food safety and also decrease the Southern Brazilian Amazon’s extensive cattle farming and deforestation of new pasture areas. The present work aims to evaluate a technological prospect regarding the strategies and market potential of bioenergy and bio-products generation for a corn-based production system. A ‘Strategic Foresight’ approach was formulated and thoroughly analyzed. Overall, it showed that productivity improvement of livestock could be accomplished, and light vehicles’ energy demand using anhydrous and hydrous ethanol could also be enhanced. The results demonstrated that greenhouse gas emissions from a ‘Corn-to-Ethanol’ production system are smaller than the conventional Mills. The Foresight analysis identified that the positive energy balance from ethanol provides more energy than its industrial consumption. ‘Corn Ethanol’ production processes are integrated in six (6) “Flex Mills” in Brazil by taking advantage of the existing installations for sugarcane processing with a production ranging from 250 to 500 million liters/year. The State of Mato Grosso shall have twelve (12) Ethanol Mills in “Full” operation until 2021. The SWOT analysis in this study revealed that: the economy's development could generate direct and indirect jobs, potentially supporting the energy transition to a low-carbon economy through the valorization of agricultural and livestock products, and thus allowing the expansion of confined livestock, pig, and fish farming. Finally, the Strategic Foresight showed the multi-tiered importance of technological application and cooperation in the agro-industrial sector.

Updating strategy for a high-tech world: constant change from the bottom up and the outside in

PurposeThe purpose of this study is as follows: update the 1983 survey to determine the strategic practices being used in 2020, draw conclusions on major organizational changes since the original 1984 study and recommend how leaders could use these findings to plan for strategic change.Design/methodology/approachThis research updates an earlier study to learn how strategic planning and foresight are changing to cope with today’s high-tech world. The first author’s 1983 General Motors survey of “Strategic Planning in the Fortune 500” was updated by surveying 68 managers from 40 organizations to assess the current state-of-the-art. Results outline the leading edge of strategic practices today, illustrated by comments – from the respondents. Findings show a striking change from the earlier survey. Where strategic planning was formerly restricted to a top management function, respondents strongly think it should now include all units across the organization to form a bottom-up system. They also think it should extend to active participation from employees, customers, suppliers and other outside stakeholders. The main conclusion is that leaders should be developing the sophisticated systems that have been anticipated for many years but have rarely been practiced – strategic change from “the bottom up and the outside in.”FindingsThese results provide a rough assessment of the current state-of-the-art in strategic foresight.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is limited because the sample was not randomly selected to provide a rigorous study that permits accurate statements for a well-defined population and the sample size is modest.Practical implicationsThe first conclusion affirms that the strategic planning cycle remains the primary theoretical framework guiding strategy. However, the planning cycle is increasingly elaborated by new practices summarized in the second two conclusions described above. As noted, the need for strategic change now cuts across all organizational functions and levels. With massive change a constant, there is a move to decentralize strategy to agile units able to move quickly and hierarchical structures are being replaced with adaptive systems and innovative cultures. Managers are also broadening their methods to facilitate planning with stakeholders. Sound sources of information are considered a must and include direct communication with diverse and dissenting voices.Social implicationsWhile bottom-up systems and stakeholder management have been discussed endlessly, the time seems right to move these powerful concepts from the leading edge that remains marginalized and into the mainstream of strategic foresight and management practice. Scholars and researchers should evaluate the level of participation in these models, their effectiveness and possible improvements. Strategic managers should start implementing these changes carefully, rather than introducing emerging technologies, advanced products and other organizational changes.Originality/valueThis study replicates a landmark survey of Strategic Planning in the Fortune 500. Results show that organizations should now implement crucial changes to operate from the bottom up and the outside in.

Emerging trends in roadmapping research: A bibliometric literature review

ABSTRACT Roadmapping practice and research have evolved together over the past three decades, in response to the changing application context, such as the emergence of cutting-edge technologies and rapid social changes. The widespread adoption and adaptation of (technology) roadmapping has been enabled by its simplicity, flexibility and usefulness, reflected in a surge in the volume of literature on roadmapping. A limited number of literature reviews have been conducted, mostly using qualitative and micro-oriented approaches. This paper, however, deploys a quantitative and macro-oriented approach to provide an objective and comprehensive view of the literature by following DNCT procedures, consisting of citation network and text mining analysis. This paper identifies contributing authors, journals and countries, sets out key research themes, and highlights significant developments in roadmapping practice and theory, with reference to previous studies. Results have proven that roadmapping has become an established research topic. 10 clusters of research streams are detected: General Concept & Scenario; Technology Management Tool; Implementation in National and Industrial Levels; Fundamental Research; Implementation in Organisational Level; Innovation Planning; Strategic Planning Synchronisation; Strategic Foresight; Industrial Emergence; and Design & Visualisation. In addition, an academic landscape of the field is graphically illustrated, and potential avenues for future research are suggested.

Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight

AbstractResearch SummaryWe study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that entrepreneurs make less accurate predictions as they gain experience executing projects: they miss their predicted timeline to bring a product to market by nearly six additional weeks on each successive project. Although learning should improve prediction accuracy in principle, we argue that entrepreneurs also learn of opportunities to augment each successive product, which drastically expands the interdependencies beyond what an entrepreneur can anticipate. We find that entrepreneurs encounter more unforeseen interdependencies in their subsequent projects, and they sacrifice on‐time delivery to address these interdependencies.Managerial SummaryEntrepreneurs consistently struggle to set timelines that they can meet. And, counterintuitively, accumulating experience can actually make this problem even worse: experienced entrepreneurs can miss timelines by even wider margins on subsequent projects. In our study of crowdfunding entrepreneurs launching hardware technology products, we find that entrepreneurs fail to anticipate how many more things can go wrong when they do something even just a little bit more challenging on their next project. In other words, the number of unknown unknowns in a project increases very rapidly even when making only simple improvements on a product. We argue that entrepreneurs can more accurately predict their timelines by intentionally accounting for the rapid increase in things that can go wrong.

Leveraging Strategic Foresight to Advance Worker Safety, Health, and Well-Being.

Attending to the ever-expanding list of factors impacting work, the workplace, and the workforce will require innovative methods and approaches for occupational safety and health (OSH) research and practice. This paper explores strategic foresight as a tool that can enhance OSH capacity to anticipate, and even shape, the future as it pertains to work. Equal parts science and art, strategic foresight includes the development and analysis of plausible alternative futures as inputs to strategic plans and actions. Here, we review several published foresight approaches and examples of work-related futures scenarios. We also present a working foresight framework tailored for OSH and offer recommendations for next steps to incorporate strategic foresight into research and practice in order to advance worker safety, health, and well-being.

Strategic Sensitivity and Corporate Responsiveness of Fast Moving Consumer Goods Companies in Rivers State, Nigeria

Purpose: This study examined the relationship between strategic sensitivity and corporate responsiveness of fast moving consumer goods companies in Rivers State, Nigeria. 
 Methodology: The study adopted a cross sectional survey research design. The population of this study was nine (9) fast moving consumer goods companies in Rivers State. Since the unit of analysis was at organizational level, only strategic managers were included. Five managers each were used for each company giving a total of 45 respondents. Census was adopted because the population was small. Primary data was collected using a 5-point Likert scaled questionnaire. The reliability of the instrument was achieved by the use of the Cronbach Alpha coefficient with all the items scoring above 0.70. The hypotheses were tested using the Spearman’s Rank Order Correlation Coefficient with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 23.0. The tests were carried out at a 95% confidence interval and a 0.05 level of significance. After data cleaning, only data for 38 respondents were used for data analysis.
 Findings: The findings revealed that there is a significant positive relationship between strategic sensitivity and corporate responsiveness of fast moving consumer goods companies in Rivers State, Nigeria. Specifically, strategic foresight and strategic insight were significantly and positively correlated with corporate responsiveness of fast moving consumer goods companies in Rivers State, Nigeria.
 Recommendation: The study recommends that fast moving consumer goods companies should build its capabilities of strategic foresight in examining the dynamic business environment and should constantly and proactively scan for opportunities and threats, in addition to strategies for lowering or reducing cost of production compare to other competitors.

Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that entrepreneurs make less accurate predictions as they gain experience: they miss their predicted deadline to bring a product to market by nearly 6 additional weeks on each successive project. While learning should improve prediction accuracy in principal, we argue that entrepreneurs also learn of opportunities to augment each successive product, which drastically expands the interdependencies beyond what a boundedly rational entrepreneur can anticipate. We find that in a subsequent project, entrepreneurs encounter more unforeseen interdependencies in areas such as manufacturing and logistics, and they sacrifice on-time delivery to address these interdependencies.

Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study

AbstractForecasting plays a vital role in intelligence assessment and contributes to national security decision‐making by improving strategic foresight. Remarkably, most intelligence organizations do not proactively track their forecasting accuracy and, therefore, do not know how accurate their forecasts are or what types of biases intelligence analysts (or organizations) might exhibit. We review research on geopolitical forecasting and a roughly decade‐long program of research to assess the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts produced by and for the Government of Canada. This research is described in three phases corresponding to previously published research, following which novel analyses (drawing from the data used in the earlier phases) are reported. The findings reveal a high degree of forecasting accuracy as well as significant underconfidence. These results were evident regardless of whether analysts assigned numeric probabilities to their forecasts. However, the novel analyses clarified that there is a substantial cost to accuracy if end‐users rely on their own interpretations of verbal probability terms used in the forecasts. We recommend that intelligence organizations proactively track forecasting accuracy as a means of supporting accountability and organizational learning. We further recommend that intelligence organizations use numeric probabilities in their forecasts to support better comprehension of these estimates by end‐users.

Opportunity Exploitation in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic – The Importance of Dynamic Capabilities and the Entrepreneur’s Characteristics

Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to answer the question of how entrepreneurs can take advantage of and exploit the conditions and opportunities resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: In the paper, we apply the conceptual review method in order to review extant knowledge, identifying important research gaps, and propose a conceptual framework for the research. Findings: We propose a conceptual framework of the recognition and exploitation of business opportunities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework assumes the influence of specific dynamic capabilities (strategic foresight – at the strategic level and innovation, self-structured and relational capabilities – at the operational level) and the entrepreneur’s key characteristics (being intuitive, having the ability to learn – especially in the field of crisis management, being innovative, having leadership competencies and having the ability to use advanced digital technologies) on the identification, creation and exploitation of opportunities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations: The main limitation results from the dynamism of the pandemic situation. Therefore, our results need further empirical verification. Practical implications: The model provides managerial implications for entrepreneurs responsible for decisions and actions during the pandemic crisis. We underline the importance of the development of entrepreneurs’ own competencies as well as the development of the competencies of their employees in the context of crisis management. We especially suggest that managers develop leadership competencies which relate to the competence of how to delegate powers and build empowerment in order to take advantage of the opportunities resulting from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. To exploit opportunities effectively, they should be recognized early, and therefore entrepreneurs should consider the benefits of using intuition in this area. Value: The special value of the paper can be seen in the context of the analysis. There is a shortage of studies identifying the impact of dynamic capabilities and the entrepreneur’s characteristics on the exploitation of opportunities during the specific situation of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Novel Community Health Impact Assessment towards a Public Policy: A Case Study of Biomass Power Plants in Southern Thailand

For the first time, this article describes the novel process based on the integrated community health impact assessment (CHIA) for renewable energy technologies that have been globally accepted, such as a biomass power plant, to reduce health inequities in Southern Thailand. The co-design foresight study and participatory action research (PAR) using multiple qualitative methodologies, including key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and Delphi expert panels. The study was conducted the integrated approach during May-December 2019 in a small town, Southern Thailand. Strategic foresight enabled the community to identify future scenarios of enterprises, institutions, and others in the short, medium, and long term by analyzing internal and external factors. First, the compassionate communities served as a strategy to build support for individuals, schools, workplaces, civic organizations, and local governments to tackle health challenges surrounding severe problems. Second, community readiness played a role in assessing communities' adoption of mindfulness to deal with the biomass power plant. Third, the social and ecological effects presented the livelihood and living in the Southern region as the main determinants in modern energy utilization under Thailand's policy. These factors contributed to CHIA's entire process of producing health promotion, social learning, and public policy derived by the community. The findings of this study are geared towards providing advanced practical decision-support tools for stakeholders responsible for policy and investment decisions in a community near the biomass power plant constructions.

Agile Roadmapping: An Adaptive Approach to Technology Foresight

Technology roadmapping has become an important foresight tool for science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy and technology strategy development. There are, however, challenges in translating evidence from foresight into the strategies of STI agencies and the planning of research & technology development (RTD) organizations. While the foresight evaluation literature identifies methodological issues related to evidence granularity, scope, and stakeholder confidence, there is limited guidance on how to ensure roadmapping outputs are strategically relevant, appropriately detailed, and credible. This paper highlights the potential of using structured visual roadmapping frameworks to anticipate potential strategic foresight evidence failures and using the adaptive and iterative nature of roadmapping processes to address them. In this paper, we distinguish between: the roadmapping framework ‘canvas’; the foresight evidence captured on the canvas; the process of generating the evidence; and any final strategic plan developed using that evidence (with goals, milestones, actions, etc). We investigate efforts to use the roadmapping canvas as a research tool and diagnostic to explore emerging technology trajectories and innovation ‘pathways’. We demonstrate that key patterns of evidence distribution on the roadmapping canvas have the potential to reveal where further evidence may need to be gathered, or where further triangulation of stakeholder perspectives may be required. We argue that by adaptively addressing these patterns at key stages within the roadmapping process (and appropriately re-scoping, re-prioritizing, and re-focusing foresight effort and resources), the granularity, coverage, and consensus of the roadmapping evidence can be greatly enhanced. We conclude the paper by summarizing a set of novel principles for adaptive agile roadmapping, reflecting on the implications for foresight more generally, and outlining a future research agenda to test and refine this approach to agile foresight.

Disentangling strategic foresight? A critical analysis of the term building on the pioneering work of Richard Slaughter

The use of the term 'Strategic Foresight' is broad and prolific in current academic discourse. With a growth in its use, confusion as to the definition and application of the concept has emerged. This paper seeks to disentangle the sometimes contradictory and misapplied usage of the term. Research into the definition, nature and measurement of strategic foresight is scarce. However, its use as a descriptive term is widespread and abundant.The paper seeks to distill key insights as they relate to the term based on an interpretation of Richard Slaughter’s earlier works in the context of more recent publications. It found that the term has been described as an individual ability, a process or activity. The paper concludes by proposing a definition and conceptual model of strategic foresight. The paper also describes the significant influence of Slaughter's work on the work of the author.

Foundation Professor of Foresight: Richard Slaughter’s scholarly book contributions to Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight

This brief article provides an overview of selected research monograph books from Foundation Professor Richard Slaughter's research career. Foundation Professor Slaughter's books have contributed significantly to Futures Studies over a forty year period. The development of Critical Futures Studies, Integral Futures, and Anthropocene debates are considered. Foundation Professor Slaughter's books are also situated in terms of the neoliberal political economy in the United Kingdom and Australia, and research management insights on academic career progression.Professor Slaughter's anticipation of recent debates about 'lost futures' and a 'postcapitalist' world are also considered.

A priceless gift – Reflections on Richard Slaughter’s influence on working and living with the future

Richard Slaughter’s approach to understanding and teaching futures studies is foundational to the thinking and practice of the more than 160 students that went through the Master of Strategic Foresight program at Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne, Australia. I studied with Richard, worked with him and have been guided by his approach in my foresight practice for over 15 years. Richard’s contribution to the futures field is exemplified by his understanding of the role the interior development of the foresight practitioner plays in creating images of the future, his articulation of the civilizational challenges we face and his weaving of integral theory and futures thinking. This piece is a reflection on the impact Richard’s ideas about possible futures and the practice of foresight has had on the work I, and many others, deliver across numerous contexts and industries.

A game theory approach to selecting marketing-mix strategies

PurposeAdopting efficient marketing strategies is a challenging task in a competitive market place involving complex marketing planning, techniques and mechanisms to identify the best course of action under these circumstances and finding optimal solutions or stable outcomes. Decisions and strategies of competitors in the market influence the selection of the appropriate marketing strategy. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical methodology based on the game theory approach for planning optimal marketing-mix strategies in dynamic competitive markets, taking into account strategic foresight and interaction effects.Design/methodology/approachThe game theory approach, as a decision-making tool in conflict situations, is suggested for planning and adopting optimal marketing strategy. The main intellectual attraction of the game theory is essentially a question of how to act in gaming situations against highly rational opponents A kind of static, finite and non-cooperative game analytics approach has been developed for this issue, and the proposed model has been implemented to design optimal marketing strategies for two top brands of the automotive parts market in Iran.FindingsThe findings of this study show that the optimal marketing-mix strategy for brand A is pricing and for brand B is the product strategy.Practical implicationsGame theory and the Nash equilibrium model can provide a practical approach to find and adopt the right strategy, know competitors' movements and strategies and get more profit.Originality/valueThe integration of the game theory approach into the marketing mix framework has been adopted as a generalized model for marketing strategy planning and analysis as well as to resolve some shortcomings of the marketing mix framework. The Nash equilibrium model has been used to analyze the results. The incorporation of game theory into marketing models has the potential to enrich the scope of marketing modeling.

Does meaning matter? Nietzsche, Jung and implications for global leadership

The Global Risks 2035 Update by the Atlantic Council, despite its clinical focus on economic, environmental and security challenges, nevertheless suggests that shared global meaning might have a role to play in enabling humanity to set off on a more beneficial trend for its foreseeable global future. The realisation that the complex challenges facing humanity is existential as much as it is pragmatic necessitates trans-disciplinary engagement and collaborative research ventures. This article contributed a trans-disciplinary reflection by bringing philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche and psychologist-philosopher Carl Jung in dialogue with critical leadership studies within the broader framework of the science–religion dialogue of this special volume. Pointing to the awareness in leadership studies of how meaning, narrative and shared vision enable greater effectiveness and collaboration, we explore nihilism as cultural problem to be addressed in order to create meaning that fosters global collaborative action. From the viewpoint of the Global Risk 2035 Update and its gloomy strategic foresight of a newly bipolarised world or further descent into chaos, the article brought Nietzsche’s idea of the Last Man into dialogue with Carl Jung’s emphasis on the need for a collective myth to reverse the decline of civilisation and enable humanity to chart a course towards unprecedented global collaboration. Contribution: The article contributes from a transdisciplinary perspective to the question of meaning in leadership. Drawing from the contributions of Nietzsche and Jung, it argues that shared myth and shared meaning is vital to address the complex global challenges that leadership is called to address. This philosophical reflection on the crisis of nihilism contributes to the growing awareness in critical leadership studies that meaning-making is critical to effective leadership.

Behavioral planning: Improving behavioral design with “roughly right” foresight

Many challenges emerging from the current COVID-19 pandemic are behavioral in nature, which has prompted the field of behavioral design to propose solutions for issues as wide-ranging as hand-washing, wearing masks, and the adoption of new norms for staying and working from home. On the whole, however, these behavioral interventions have been somewhat underwhelming, exposing an inherent brittleness that comes from three common “errors of projection” in current behavioral design methodology: projected stability, which insufficiently plans for the fact that interventions often function within inherently unstable systems; projected persistence, which neglects to account for changes in those system conditions over time; and projected value, which assumes that definitions of success are universally shared across contexts. Borrowing from strategic design and futures thinking, a new proposed strategic foresight model—behavioral planning—can help practitioners better address these system-level, anticipatory, and contextual weaknesses by more systematically identifying potential forces that may impact behavioral interventions before they have been implemented. Behavioral planning will help designers more effectively elicit signals indicating the emergence of forces that may deform behavioral interventions in emergent COVID-19 contexts, and promote “roughly right” directional solutions at earlier stages in solution development to better address system shifts.

Real Estate Insights Strategic planning policy post-pandemic: the “Great Land Question”

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the case for the radical reform of land policy worldwide. It does so, however, in the context of present problems posed by the prevailing coronavirus pandemic. It is a strategic study, not a scientific analysis and is oriented towards the field of the built environment in general and the real estate industry in particular.Design/methodology/approachAlthough it draws on concepts of land management long extolled and covers concerns currently circulating about the prospects for urban planning and property development post-pandemic, the synthesis is original.FindingsThe concluding counsel is that land policy reform, being a component factor of so much of society's endeavours, should figure far more prominently across the political platforms of the world.Practical implicationsMost of the material regarding the “Great Land Question” is based on findings from countless strategic foresight studies conducted by the author over the past 25 years and re-assessed in light of the pandemic. If correct, the practical implications will be significant.Originality/valueThis is a review of existing models.