Strategic Foresight Research Articles

Preparing for an uncertain future: Merging the strategic foresight toolkit with landscape modeling in northeast Minnesota’s forests

“The Great Acceleration” poses serious challenges to land managers, policy makers, and all who are interested in the global sustainability of socioecological systems. Methods that can effectively address the uncertainty of the future to allow more robust and adaptive planning and management are urgently needed. We present a case study from northeastern Minnesota to highlight how strategic foresight methods and landscape modeling can serve as complementary tools to generate divergent yet plausible participatory scenarios to ultimately model the potential impacts of these scenarios on fundamental ecosystem services over 50 years. The landscape scenarios generated from the scenario process ranged widely, from optimistic futures to dire outcomes; these scenarios were far more divergent than outcomes explored in a traditional factorial landscape modeling study. This greater range in possible futures leads to more useful model outputs to guide the decisions of planners, managers, and policymakers. Our study illustrates advantages of blending the power of multiple strategic foresight tools with landscape modeling to generate alternative future storylines that are enlightening (i.e., expanding the scope of possibilities), useful (via strong contrasts), and yet plausible (i.e., grounded by robust science and stakeholder perspectives). Strategic foresight methods such as horizon scanning can also be useful in on-going monitoring of landscapes to support adaptive management aimed at fostering sustainable futures. Combining these approaches enhances creativity and wide-ranging plausibility (strategic foresight) with science-based assessments of outcomes and trajectories (landscape modeling), increasing the likelihood of creating resilient, preferred futures.

The Impact of Strategic Foresight on Strategic Recovery / Field Research in Rafidain Bank

The research aims to determine the level of the main variables in the organization surveyed and test the impact of the relationship between strategic foresight in promoting strategic recovery and in order to achieve this was adopted dimensions of strategic foresight (environmental survey capabilities, strategic selection capabilities, integration capabilities), while the dimensions of strategic recovery were adopted (speed, apology, compensation, explanation and clarification, empowerment), has been selected (Rafidain Bank) to test this research, which is one of the ancient Iraqi banks that provides A group of banking services to a wide segment of society, and the questionnaire was adopted according to the five-point Lekerth scale as a tool for collecting information, as the research sample reached (133) individuals distributed to the managers of departments and branches in Baghdad and the provinces of Rafidain Bank and through the use of statistical programs such as (Amos21, SPSS24) and other related statistical methods, a set of results were reached, the most important of which is the high practice of strategic foresight dimensions In Rafidain Bank, which contributes to foreseeing the future and developing plans to confront potential events or problems and find appropriate solutions to reduce or reduce failure, which enhances strategic recovery and achieves organizational success.

Peran Strategic Foresight dalam Mempertahankan Sustaibable Capability Organisasi Menuju Inovasi Manajemen

This study aims to examine the role of strategic foresight and its ability to support the development of management innovation processes within organizations. This study uses a narrative literature review approach involving potential interactions of three main topics, namely: strategic foresight, management innovation, and management cognition. The results of the study explain that each individual has a character from birth to being able to see the future. Then the capability of foresight in this organization must be developed and continuously maintained by both stakeholders in the organization's management and employees. Before implementing a foiresight strategy, it is necessary to understand in depth managerial cognition as the basis for its application. Furthermore, the development of a well-managed strategic foresight will become a management innovation so as to be able to maintain organizational sustainability. This conceptual paper lays a foundation that can be used as further research in determining strategic foresight capabilities in relation to managerial dynamic capabilities. The results of this paper can be used by organizations that have a long history of facing challenges in capturing the challenges of changing business environments in the future.

The impact of organizational wisdom on Strategic foresight

The current paper’s aim is to determine the influence magnitude of the organizational wisdom in achieving strategic foresight for the Daura Refinery plant of the Iraqi Midland Refineries Company (MRC) through the research hypothesis that suggests a lack of impact of organizational wisdom on strategic foresight. The hypothesis was tested using the analytical descriptive method coupled with a questionnaire as the main tool. The 59-article questionnaire was distributed to leaders of the company that comprised the study community; an entirely enclosed group of a non-probability purposive sampling that included (352) individuals, a list that was then narrowed down to (312) as being analytically valid. The study resulted in a number of conclusions on top of which was the existence of influence of significance that the organizational wisdom showed on strategic foresight.

Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict organizational agility.

Since the pandemic organizations have been required to build agility to manage risks, stakeholder engagement, improve capabilities and maturity levels to deliver on strategy. Not only is there a requirement to improve performance, a focus on employee engagement and increased use of technology have surfaced as important factors to remain competitive in the new world. Consideration of the strategic horizon, strategic foresight and support structures is required to manage critical factors for the formulation, execution and transformation of strategy. Strategic foresight and Artificial Intelligence modelling are ways to predict an organizations future agility and potential through modelling of attributes, characteristics, practices, support structures, maturity levels and other aspects of future change. The application of this can support the development of required new competencies, skills and capabilities, use of tools and develop a culture of adaptation to improve engagement and performance to successfully deliver on strategy. In this paper we apply an Artificial Intelligence model to predict an organizations level of future agility that can be used to proactively make changes to support improving the level of agility. We also explore the barriers and benefits of improved organizational agility. The research data was collected from 44 respondents in public and private Australian industry sectors. These research findings together with findings from previous studies identify practices and characteristics that contribute to organizational agility for success. This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse of these principles, practices, attributes and characteristics that will help overcome some of the barriers for organizations with limited resources to build a framework and culture of agility to deliver on strategy in a changing world.

Strategic Thinking and Merit Understanding of Public Employees During The Covid-19 Pandemic

Today, strategic management emerges as a crucial element in achieving the sustainability goals of nation-states. In addition, the importance of qualified public staff who will implement these plans is an indisputable fact for reflecting the strategic foresight made to take decisive and urgent measures against sudden epidemics and disasters. This study aims to reveal the relationship between strategic management and merit understanding of public employees during the Covid-19 pandemic. In the analysis of the study data, arithmetic mean, frequency, standard deviation and percentage values, which are descriptive statistics, were examined. For determining if it is necessary to perform parametric analyzes for this study, first, an examination was made on whether the scale data shows a normal distribution. In this study, the descriptive research method was used, and data collection was made with the help of a questionnaire. When we look at the study results, the strategic management perceptions of public employees are at a high level as per the results obtained in the resource and environment dimensions. Besides, as per the general average and merit dimension, training dimension, assignment dimension and overall evaluation results of the answers related to the merit understanding of the public employees participating in the study, their merit understanding is at a high level. In conclusion, it is aimed to determine a method and form a theoretical basis according to the study results of decision makers, strategy makers, and public employees' understanding of strategic management and merit.

The Effect of Strategic Vigilance on Organizational Excellence the Mediating Role of Strategic Foresight

This study aimed to identify the impact of strategic vigilance on organizational excellence through the mediating role of strategic foresight, the study was applied in the jordan commercial banks which are (13) banks. A questionnaire was used as to collect data to investigating the opinions of a sample of (217) manager. (171) questionnaires were collected . The most important findings the study reached were there are a statistically significant impact at the level of significance (P≤0.05) of strategic vigllance on organizational excellence, and a statistically significant direct impact at the level of significance(P≤ 0.05) of strategic viglance on organizational excellence in the presence of strategic foresight. With the most notably recommendations: the Jordan Commercial Banks should focus on strategic vigilance, as it is one of the most important means to improve organization excellence, developing awareness among the leaders and employees of commercial banks about the fundamental,and entrepreneurship role of efficient management to anticipate the future and enhance organizational excellence. As well as enhancing the foresight capabilities, and mechanisms of strategic foresight for the future.

Enabling and Impeding Factors in the Provision of Business, Vocational, Entrepreneurship, and Technical Training Education under COVID-19

Education systems have been grossly negatively impacted by COVID-19 globally. Education Institutions including universities, colleges, and elementary schools were closed to prevent the disease from spreading. Lockdown and social distancing are some of the disease preventive measures that imposed the greatest challenges on the education system. Different training and learning strategies were adopted to ensure continuity in the provision of Business, Vocational, Entrepreneurship, and Technical Training (BTVET) education across the globe. These strategies include individual learning, online or remote training, and focus group discussion. Several Scholarly studies show that it was not easy for developing countries like some African countries to adopt the online or remote education mechanism while the developed ones took a temporary short period to adjust to the new system. In this article, we used systematic literature review methodology to examine the enabling and impeding factors associated with COVID-19 pandemic that impacted the provision of BTVET education in African the setting right from the onset of the pandemic. We also identify mitigation strategies that should be put in place to abate similar future occurrence. We argue that the lack of strategic foresight in emergency readiness was a major cause of national failures to promptly combat COVID-19 in most African countries including Uganda. BTVET education in Uganda was not spared the bitter effects of the pandemic. However, the pandemic taught a number of hard lessons to the Government of Uganda to strategically outmaneuver the effects of the pandemic. We recommend a number of strategies for outmaneuvering any future effects of pandemics on the provision of BTVET education in Uganda.

FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR TOURISM PROGRAMS OF HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF BUGA AND ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE HORIZON 2021-2030

This research presents an analysis of the strategic prospective of the tourism academic training programs in higher education institutions in the municipality of Guadalajara de Buga and its area of ​​influence: El Cerrito, Ginebra, Guacarí, Restrepo, San Pedro, Yotoco and Calima Darién, (Government of Valle del Cauca., 2016). The objective of this study revolves around two axes: 1. Identify the possible and probable future scenarios of the tourist programs offered by higher education institutions in Guadalajara de Buga and its area of ​​influence; 2. From the identified scenarios, the bet scenario is defined to which the educational institutions that offer the tourist programs should be directed. According to the opinion of experts and key actors, the policies and strategies for the improvement oriented to the development and competitiveness of comprehensive academic training for professional training in tourism are determined by public and private institutions of higher education in Guadalajara de Buga and its area of ​​influence, seeking to generate a positive impact on the environment of the central region of the Valley and enriching its development for its insertion in an international context. This study applies the methodology proposed in "the toolbox of strategic foresight" and involves other methods such as analysis of importance and governance, as well as elements of sectoral analysis. This research was carried out in two phases: diagnostic and prospective. In the diagnosis, a documentary analysis was carried out, consultation with key actors and experts; Tools such as brainstorming, Regnier's Abacus, structural analysis were applied, and for the design of the scenarios the detailed analysis of the results was used in order to propose the exploratory scenarios and from these propose the bet scenario.

The future of space activities and preservation on Mars: A preliminary policy Delphi study

A ‘planetary park’ system has been suggested as a way for Mars to ‘preserve’ land for a multitude of purposes. These parks would represent a diverse portion of martian terrain and would be regulated to minimize human contamination and prevent excess human intervention. One suggestion is a two-part land-use policy for Mars, i.e. planetary parks and Lockean land for the use of non-park areas, in which non-park areas could be opened up for development and settlement. Others have proposed that this planetary parks concept could be extended to appeal to corporate interests as a compromise between protecting environmental interests and allowing private use of resources on Mars. This empirical study aims to help advance the core discussion of the interplay between future space activities and future preservation plans on Mars. Specifically, this work uses a particular strategic foresight method, the Policy Delphi, as a means to reveal positions on that issue and to explore alternative policy options in advance, through the collective judgment of a panel of experts. It should be noted that the goal was not strictly to promote consensus regarding the topic of interest, but to encourage structured dialogue. Consequently, the stable consensus achieved in specific areas indicated that the panel of experts foresees international cooperation on matters related to preservation plans for Mars, which, in turn, will enhance the overall international space governance. Furthermore, the panel foresees the inclusion of varying actors, both state and non-state ones, in the development of a preservation framework for Mars, especially on a national level. To this end, the panel endorses the inclusion of a diversity of values to be protected via the aforementioned framework, and suggests the advancement of broad global dialogue on this matter including academic, industrial, governmental, and public actors. The preliminary insights revealed in this work may inform relevant international discussions towards the formulation of proactive policies that will contribute to the environmental governance of future activities on Mars.

Using Strategic Foresight to Lead in a Gentrifying Business Culture

Data has demonstrated that affluent suburban whites are returning to inner cities, which low-income minorities have occupied for decades. This return is increasing investment and development by small and large businesses seeking to meet the needs of this new demographic. The data has also demonstrated the conflict that these businesses are experiencing from long-time residents, community leaders, and activists. This article will give leaders a strategic approach to addressing conflict before, during, and after the gentrification process. This article will discuss the theory of strategic foresight and its importance to leaders confronting gentrification. The article will demonstrate strategic foresight’s advantages to leaders and their organizations and how predictive and adaptive leaders can better embrace the future and changes. Strategic foresight assists leaders in embracing change and contemplating the effects of developing trends so they are well-prepared for market shifts, threats, and opportunities . While research has demonstrated the adverse effects accompanying gentrification, strategic foresight can assist leaders in discovering the opportunities these shifts can bring and how to gain the support and acceptance of others effectively.

ALPAS (ALleviating PAndemic Severity) Through Foresight: Capping the Digital Divide

Everyone has lost their footing due to the pandemic. The academic community was unprepared, leaving both professors and students bewildered and without a sense of direction. The goal at the time was to overcome the calamity of educational discontinuity. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4 – Education goal aims “to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all” relative to this SDG and the surge of the pandemic, digital divide become prominent, altering the course of educational landscape in all levels across public and private institutions. In the Bicol region, education was delivered in many various forms and variability, predicting the future through strategic foresight could propel the region to a transformed future. This paper discusses in detail the status of education in the region and the possible scenarios using Jim Dator’s Future Scenario Archetypes, Causal Layered Analysis and through Scenario Planning Plus. Four plausible scenarios have surfaced in this paper: STUG-nation of Education, Unstable and Disarray of Educational elements, Flowing-restrained Education, and ORAGON Education. It requires multiple drivers as examined through the PESTEL that includes political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal aspects. This study proved useful in crafting and anticipating the future scenarios of Bicol Region’s education. Preliminary as it may, this study highlighted important building blocks of future scenarios through foresight methods. Dator’s framework was proved to be very useful in developing the four scenarios, the use of other future study tools will further amplify plausible scenarios for the education of Bicol region and beyond.

Strategic foresight of entrepreneurial firms in energy transition

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore the principal research query and whether strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aims at crafting future readiness.Design/methodology/approachWith a focus on entrepreneurial firms working in the alternative energy segment in the Indian context, the intent is to examine the deployment of strategic foresight by incumbent firms and their entrepreneurial journey. The authors have adopted the approach of Eisenhardt for this research. The area of interest for the authors entailing strategic foresight by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aligns with defining features reflecting the aim of Eisenhardt method for this exploratory research coupled with constructivism.FindingsWhile the future scenarios in the energy sector have to be necessarily multiple, their alignment with different geographic, economic, demographic and political outlooks shall be defined by the pathways niched through the deployment of strategic foresight for arriving at those scenarios.Research limitations/implicationsStrategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms has the potential to create future readiness through self-reliant sustainable economic value chains for local populace, thus propagating holistic development in remote regions.Originality/valueThis paper attempts to knit together the domains of strategic foresight, entrepreneurial firms and energy transition through case research and present the future thinking deployed for navigation in uncharted pathways by capturing the foresight component of these incumbent firms chosen through careful case selection. The narrative has been strengthened by the varied interviews across participants and the observations made by the authors during the research work.

How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects

Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common “language” and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.

Adapting a strategic foresight framework to reuse integration

AbstractThe integration of reuse components and subsystems into complex systems is continuing to increase in development programs as a method to reduce resources needed and to reduce complexity. Previous research identified that reuse can commonly be a driver of system integration failures. A previous work identified four considerations for ensuring that reuse is integrated into a system successfully. This paper adapts a framework from the discipline of Strategic Foresight that provides a fixed roadmap for addressing the considerations. The framework consists of 10 guidelines across six phases, Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. The framework was evaluated against 18 historical systems that failed due to reuse components or subsystems to determine if the framework would have mitigated the failure mechanisms around the reuse. The framework was found to have mitigated 100% of the failure mechanisms across the 18 systems.

Introduction to the Virtual Special Issue: Strategy Science’s Contributions to Doctoral Reading Lists

Introduction to the Virtual Special Issue: <i>Strategy Science</i>’s Contributions to Doctoral Reading Lists

Four Futures for Occupational Safety and Health.

Rapid changes to the nature of work have challenged the capacity of existing occupational safety and health (OSH) systems to ensure safe and productive workplaces. An effective response will require an expanded focus that includes new tools for anticipating and preparing for an uncertain future. Researchers at the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) have adopted the practice of strategic foresight to structure inquiry into how the future will impact OSH. Rooted in futures studies and strategic management, foresight creates well-researched and informed future scenarios that help organizations better prepare for potential challenges and take advantage of new opportunities. This paper summarizes the inaugural NIOSH strategic foresight project, which sought to promote institutional capacity in applied foresight while exploring the future of OSH research and practice activities. With multidisciplinary teams of subject matter experts at NIOSH, we undertook extensive exploration and information synthesis to inform the development of four alternative future scenarios for OSH. We describe the methods we developed to craft these futures and discuss their implications for OSH, including strategic responses that can serve as the basis for an action-oriented roadmap toward a preferred future.

Production Chain of Commercial Alginate from Sargassum (Macrocystis pyrifera) in Peru

Peru is a privileged country regarding marine hydrobiological resources due to the vast variety of algae and the biomass they possess. This advantage allows Peru to develop an industrial sector to produce hydrocolloids, a group of natural polymers, chemically known as polysaccharides, derived from marine algae. Among the most widely used hydrocolloids is commercial alginate, an input used in different industries such as food, cosmetics, chemicals, and textiles. This study aimed to identify and characterize the strategic variables that integrate the commercial alginate production chain from sargassum (Macrocystis pyrifera) in Peru and the social stakeholders that lead it. Based on an exploratory and descriptive scope, a structural analysis was conducted (using the theoretical bases of French Strategic Foresight as a methodological design) with the support of a panel of seven experts knowledgeable about the system studied and the MICMAC tool (Matrix of Cross Impacts and a Multiplication Applied to a Classification). The outcome shows that the key variables of the production chain are competitive prices, sales levels, potential markets, and quality control. Simultaneously, identifying the most influential social stakeholders made it possible to propose strategies to control the variables to shape and control the chain adequately. This study lays the foundations for the strategic planning of future scenarios for the system in the long term.

Triangle Relationship: A Review of Dynamic Capabilities, Strategic Foresight and Organizational Learning

Triangle Relationship: A Review of Dynamic Capabilities, Strategic Foresight and Organizational Learning

The Role of Strategic Foresight on Dynamic Capabilities

Purpose: Strategic Foresight (SF) is required for an organization in facing Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity environment to maintain relevant in future. Recently, researchers have argued that strategic planning (SP) can be considered a dynamic capability (DC) in organizations. Thus the purpose of this Paper is investigate the role of Strategic Foresight on Dynamic Capabilities of firms. Methodology: This theoretical effort presents a brief review and argues that Strategic Foresight is one of the micro-foundations of Dynamic Capabilities because it supports the seizing and continuous alignment of assets and resources. Under this perspective, SF has a role in the development and implementation of all organizational DCs and is not restricted to a DC specifically. Findings: The results show that strategic foresight is effective in creating dynamic capabilities. Originality/Value: Although scholars generally agree that companies require dynamic capabilities to flexibly respond to and shape uncertain environments, only little empirical research has been conducted on the factors that facilitate the development of these capabilities. This study addresses this gap and introduces strategic foresight as an important antecedent of firms’ dynamic capabilities.