Foresight for corn-to-ethanol mills in the Southern Brazilian Amazon: Energy, economic and environmental analysis

Abstract

A sustainable expansion of corn-based and sugarcane-based ethanol production could induce food safety and also decrease the Southern Brazilian Amazon’s extensive cattle farming and deforestation of new pasture areas. The present work aims to evaluate a technological prospect regarding the strategies and market potential of bioenergy and bio-products generation for a corn-based production system. A ‘Strategic Foresight’ approach was formulated and thoroughly analyzed. Overall, it showed that productivity improvement of livestock could be accomplished, and light vehicles’ energy demand using anhydrous and hydrous ethanol could also be enhanced. The results demonstrated that greenhouse gas emissions from a ‘Corn-to-Ethanol’ production system are smaller than the conventional Mills. The Foresight analysis identified that the positive energy balance from ethanol provides more energy than its industrial consumption. ‘Corn Ethanol’ production processes are integrated in six (6) “Flex Mills” in Brazil by taking advantage of the existing installations for sugarcane processing with a production ranging from 250 to 500 million liters/year. The State of Mato Grosso shall have twelve (12) Ethanol Mills in “Full” operation until 2021. The SWOT analysis in this study revealed that: the economy's development could generate direct and indirect jobs, potentially supporting the energy transition to a low-carbon economy through the valorization of agricultural and livestock products, and thus allowing the expansion of confined livestock, pig, and fish farming. Finally, the Strategic Foresight showed the multi-tiered importance of technological application and cooperation in the agro-industrial sector.