Abstract
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that entrepreneurs make less accurate predictions as they gain experience: they miss their predicted deadline to bring a product to market by nearly 6 additional weeks on each successive project. While learning should improve prediction accuracy in principal, we argue that entrepreneurs also learn of opportunities to augment each successive product, which drastically expands the interdependencies beyond what a boundedly rational entrepreneur can anticipate. We find that in a subsequent project, entrepreneurs encounter more unforeseen interdependencies in areas such as manufacturing and logistics, and they sacrifice on-time delivery to address these interdependencies.
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