Strategic Foresight Research Articles

Mediation Model of Strategic Foresight Influencing Dynamic Capability

Strategic Foresight (SF) is required for an organisation in facing Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) environment to maintain relevant in future. There are many studies on application of SF by organisations in preparing for the unexpected. Especially, the relationship between SF and dynamic capabilities (DC) of an organisation. Thus, this study developed a mediation model which comprises of five exogenous constructs namely environmental scanning (ES); scenario planning (SP); knowledge creation (KC); culture (CU) and formal organization (FO), one endogenous construct of dynamic capabilities and one mediator construct of organisational learning capability (OLC). The data use to develop the model was derived from 209 respondents that participated in the questionnaire survey. The respondents were selected using a purposive random sampling technique amongst individuals who involved in decision-maker position of UAE organizations. The model was evaluated at measurement and structural components to achieve the fitness criteria values. It was found that the model has achieved GoF value of 0.8423 which indicates high overall validatingpower. This means that the model is rated as a high-quality model. After achieving these fitness criteria, hypothesis testing was conducted through bootstrapping function of the software. It was found that only two out of five of the direct effect relationships are significant, which are knowledge creation and formal organisation have significant relationships with the dynamic capabilities of the organisations. For mediation/indirect effect, it was found that organisational learning capacity as the mediator has significant effects toward three relationships which are scenario planning with dynamic capabilities; culture with dynamic capabilities and formal organisation with dynamic capabilities.

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.

The Delphi Method as a Morphological Catalyst for Foresight-Oriented Design Research

Anticipating expository concepts could be complex in the field of innovation management. Designers confront methodological challenges when they lock into a future framework with rapidly changing variables. The system’s users, for starters, do not yet exist. Second, ongoing changes in critical components and their interconnections make it hard to conceptualise relationships and offer synthesizable data. There is a lack of evidence in the rational core for generating forecasts. The Delphi method and morphological analysis are both well-established methods in strategic foresight. This paper suggests that using a morphology-based Delphi approach that employs a mix of the Delphi Method and Morphological Analysis to forecast future results in creative, complicated enterprises is beneficial. Furthermore, one tool compensates for the theoretical and functional shortcomings of the other by showing transparent, value-based arguments in an iterative, customizable manner. This documentary study has adopted a comparative study-based methodology that compares morphological Delphi in the context of future-oriented design to related fields in terms of procedural and theoretical parallels and differences. The results demonstrate morphological Delphi techniques through different scales of studies to provide a learning experience that is based on research, application and interaction which can be employed in future context design.

Maintaining Organizational Sustaincapability Towards Management Innovation Using Strategic Foresight

This study aims to examine the role of Strategic foresight and its capability to support the development of management innovation processes within organizations. This study uses a narrative literature review approach involving potential interactions of three main topics, namely: strategic foresight, management innovation, and management cognition. The research findings explain that every individual has a character from birth to being able to see the future. Then the capability for foresight in this organization must be developed and continuously maintained by both stakeholders in the organization's management and employees. Before implementing a foiresight strategy, it is necessary to understand in depth managerial cognition as the basis for its application. Furthermore, the development of a well-managed strategic foresight will become a management innovation so that it can maintain the sustaincapability of the organization. This conceptual paper lays a foundation that can be used as further research in determining strategic foresight abilities in relation to managerial dynamic abilities. The results of this paper can be used by organizations with a long history of facing challenges in capturing the challenges of changing business environment in the future.

ESTUDIOS PROSPECTIVOS PARA LA PLANIFICACIÓN ESTRATÉGICA DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS AGROALIMENTARIAS: UNA REVISIÓN SISTEMÁTICA DE LOS METODOS EMPLEADOS

<p><strong>Background. </strong>The current challenges of agri-food chains make it necessary for them to be efficient not only from the standpoint of costs, but also to develop the capacity to adapt to the ever-changing environment and set up a long-term vision, i.e., the use of strategic foresight for the production chains planning. <strong>Objetive. </strong>The objectives of this systematic review were: 1) to compare the use of prospective methods in research’s carried out from 2010 to 2021 for agri-food production chains in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2) to discuss the main scope and achievements of recent studies and 3) analyze the areas of opportunity for the following investigations. <strong>Methodology</strong>. The study was carried out by the PRISMA statement (<em>Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic reviews and Meta-Analyzes</em>), a systematic literature review was conducted in the global databases ScienceDirect, Elsevier, EBSCO, Springer, Wiley and academic Google using the following key terms: “foresight studies, methodologies, agri-food productive chain and strategic planning”. <strong>Implications. </strong>Given the complexity of the environment and the high level of competition in which agri-food production chains work, it is necessary to join a long-term vision, i.e. the use of strategic foresight for the production chains development. To make prospective studies, there are a variety of methods available that were analyzed and compared in this research. <strong>Conclusions. </strong>Despite the enormous contributions of prospective studies, in terms of publications, projects and research results of regional scope are basically published. The systematic analysis carried out indicates that the methodological bases of the recent investigations carried out are based on the French school of <em>prospective</em> and not on the <em>foresight</em>. There is still work to be done in the establishment of Observatories or scientific councils that can process and evaluate strategic studies on the future and also in matters of institutional development of prospective. It is therefore necessary to redouble efforts and continue to develop foresight studies for the priority production chains for the development of the Latin American and Caribbean region.<strong></strong></p>

Guest Editorial: Foresight in Strategy and Innovation Management

The papers in this special section focus on strategic foresight and innovation management. Strategic foresight develops perspectives and practices that anticipate transformational change and prepares organization to navigate them. It develops capabilities that enable decision-makers see and evaluate future situations so as to better consider alternative courses of actions and the future outcomes of their choices. As a research stream, strategic foresight has existed for more than 70 years. During this time, evaluation of the field has documented how the use of strategic foresight to form strategy under uncertainty has enabled organizations to create superior positions in future markets or to advance societal goals.

Artificial Intelligence in Innovation: How to Spot Emerging Trends and Technologies

Firms apply strategic foresight in technology and innovation management to detect discontinuous changes early, to assess their expected consequences, and to develop a future course of action enabling superior company performance. For this purpose, an ever-increasing amount of data has to be collected, analyzed, and interpreted. Still, a major part of these activities is performed manually, which requires high investments in various resources. To support these processes more efficiently, this article presents an artificial-intelligence-based data mining model that helps firms spot emerging topics and trends at a higher level of automation than before. Its modular structure consists of components for query generation, data collection, data preprocessing, topic modeling, topic analysis, and visualization, combined in such a way that only a minimum amount of manual effort is required during its initial set up. The approach also incorporates self-adaptive capabilities, allowing the model to automatically update itself once new data has become available. The model parameterization is based on latest research in this area, and its threshold parameter is learnt during supervised training using a training data set. We have applied our model to an independent test data set to verify its effectiveness as an early warning system. By means of a retrospective analysis, we show in three case studies that our model is able to identify emerging technologies prior to their first publication in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. Based on our findings, we derive both theoretical and practical implications for the technology and innovation management of firms, and we suggest future research opportunities to further advance this field.

Institutional innovation readiness for Industry 4.0 education: towards an inclusive model for the Kingdom of Bahrain

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to explore factors that contribute to institutional innovation readiness for Industry 4.0 education from the perspective of institutional experts and to develop a conceptual model for inclusive Industry 4.0 education. The study involves semi-structured interviews with 28 managers and strategists from various triple helix (i.e. educational, industrial and governmental) institutions in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Using thematic analysis and guided by a constructivist perspective, the study finds sets of themes for reform essentialities and value expectancies associated with institutional innovation for Industry 4.0 education. Reform essentialities pertain to educational system flexibility and funding, school curriculum revision and restructuring and high-performance talent and training. Similarly, value expectancy entails skills-focused programmes for lifelong and project-based learning, students-focused programmes for agile and responsive specialities, public-oriented programmes for empowering and transforming mind-sets and research-oriented programmes for developing and sustaining competencies. Managerially, this study stresses the need for multi-level (i.e. organisational-institutional-regional) strategic alignment that promotes and enhances co-evolution of institutions with technological advances. The study also highlights the practical role of programme-driven innovation for institutions to focus strategic foresight and readiness to cope with Industry 4.0 education demands through skills-focused, students-focused, public-oriented and research-oriented programmes.

An Exploration of the Potential of Machine Learning Tools for Media Analysis to Support Sense-Making Processes in Foresight

In view of the many discussions about uncertainty regarding the further development of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its effects on the economy and society, we observed that the crisis led to an increased presence of individual researchers and experts making forward-looking statements on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic or stating trends in mass media publications. From a strategic foresight research perspective, there is a need to further analyse an increase of future-oriented expert statements in public media in a context of high uncertainty like the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related crises. Given the increasing amount of media texts available for web-based scanning and text analysis, Machine Learning (ML) is a promising approach for text analysis of big data, which also raises high expectations in the field of foresight, particularly in the context of scoping and scanning activities for weak signal detection and text analysis for sense-making processes. In this study, we apply a natural language processing (NLP)-based ML approach to analyse a large corpus of news articles from web sources to explore the potential of applied ML to support sense-making in the field of foresight, specifically for the analysis of future-related statements or predictive statements in media. The results underline the potential of ML approaches as a heuristic tool to support sense-making in foresight processes and research, particularly by pre-structuring large datasets (e.g., news articles around a particular topic of public debate). The ML can provide additional insights for actor analysis associated with a specific topic of public debate from a large data corpus. At the same time, our results show that ML models are limited in their ability to provide solid evidence and that they can also lead to fallacies. Therefore, an ML can only be considered as a heuristic tool supporting specific steps in a sense-making process and development of further research questions, as well as encouraging reflection on the application of ML-based approaches in foresight.

Strategic Innovation, Digital Dexterity and Service Quality of Selected Quoted Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria

A company's approach for enhancing service quality through digitalization of services aims to produce digital-based services that respond to consumers' increasingly digital requirements. Similarly, the banking industry keeps innovating to improve the quality of its services. Adoption, execution, and proper use of innovation and digitalization in financial services are techniques that can address issues that arise in terms of increasing banking service quality. However, in recent years, difficulties such as bank service reliability, reduced service responsiveness, a lack of empathy, and insufficient service assurance have been identified as significant factors negatively influencing bank service quality. Despite several research on strategic innovation and service quality in developed economies, few studies have been conducted in Nigeria. Hence, this study examined the effect of strategic innovation and digital dexterity on service quality of selected Quoted Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. Survey research design was adopted. The population was 6,975,037 corporate customers and 4,873 employees of eight systemically important deposit money banks operating in Lagos, Nigeria. A sample size of 501 corporate customers and 464 bank employees was determined using Raosoft calculator. Convenience sampling technique was adopted in selection of bank corporate customers, while stratified random sampling technique was adopted for the bank employees. A validated questionnaire was used to collect data. Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficients for the constructs ranged from 0.79 to 0.92. The response rate was 95.4%. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings revealed that strategic alignment (β = .872, t = 8.611, p = .000), strategic foresight (β = 0.941, t = 10.295, p = .000), organizational readiness (β = 0.983, t = 11.656, p = .000), and organizational responsiveness (β = 1.046, t = 15.263, p = .000) have positive and significant effect on service quality. While organizational pro-activeness (β = -.035, t = -.517, p = .605) and organizational flexibility (β = -.099, t = -1.573, p = .116) have negative and insignificant effect on service quality of the selected Quoted Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. The study concluded that strategic innovation dimensions and digital dexterity dimensions had significant effect on service quality of the selected Quoted Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that bank management should insist and practice continued strategic innovation and digital dexterity to improve the overall service quality of their Banks.

Multidimensional Cybersecurity Framework for Strategic Foresight

Cybersecurity is now at the forefront of most organisations’ digital transformative agendas and National economic, social and political programmes. Hence its impact to society can no longer be seen to be one dimensional. The rise in National cybersecurity laws and regulations is a good indicator of its perceived importance to nations. And the recent awakening for social and ethical transparency in society and coupled with sustainability issues demonstrate the need for a paradigm shift in how cybersecurity discourses can now happen. In response to this shift, a multidimensional cybersecurity framework for strategic foresight underpinned on situational awareness is proposed. The conceptual cybersecurity framework comprising six domains – Physical, Cultural, Economic, Social, Political and Cyber – is discussed. The guiding principles underpinning the framework are outlined, followed by in-depth reflection on the Business, Operational, Technological and Human (BOTH) factors and their implications for strategic foresight for cybersecurity.

Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations

Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations.

CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF “THE DIGITAL ECONOMY FORSITE MODEL”: EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE

The article examines the conceptual foundations of the “digital economy” foresight model, in the context of which the analysis of the concepts of “foresight”, “strategic foresight” and their difference from planning, forecasting. Foresight, combined with an approach to the digital economy as a comprehensive adaptive system, promotes the development of forecasting and forecasting, but differs from them. Strategic foresight is evolving in many developed economies, including the European Union, Japan, and Singapore, where government-level foresight programs are common. According to scientists, foresight is understood as the ability to see what will or could happen in the future. The purpose of the study is to conceptualize the “digital economy foresight” model, which is the basis for understanding the processes and trends of the digital society. The object of research is the digital economy foresight model as a complex social and economic phenomenon. The subject of the research is the influence of digitalization on the formation of the digital economy foresight model. The study is based on the analysis of domestic and foreign experience in studying the foresight of the digital economy, based on an understanding of the system and processes of digital knowledge management (paradigm of thinking and relationships), economic concepts of information and knowledge management. Methods of analysis are comparative analysis, content analysis, methods of deduction and modeling as scientific knowledge of socio-economic processes. The result of the study. The essence of the concepts “foresight” and “strategic foresight” is analyzed and the methods of foresight of the digital economy are determined. Theoretical and practical bases of foresight for business and the methodology of integrated foresight during a foresight session are clarified. The use of foresight methods of forced digitalization of everyday social practices is revealed and the analysis of the “foresight of the digital economy” in Europe is carried out. The practical significance of the study lies in the philosophical understanding of the analysis of the “foresight of the digital economy” in Europe. The accelerator of the digital paradigm foresight is digital space and digital creative technologies.

Особливості, проблеми та перспективи декарбонізації цивільної авіації

Abstract. The article considers the peculiarities of the process of decarbonization of civil aviation. The objectives presented by IATA to the UN Framework Convention on Reducing Carbon Emissions have been clarified: a) average increase in fuel efficiency by 1.5 % per year from 2009 to 2023; b) a cap on net aviation CO₂ emissions from 2020 (carbon-neutral growth); c) a 50 % reduction in net aviation CO₂ emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. These goals can be achieved by following four decarbonisation strategies: the operational efficiency of airlines, the use of innovative technologies, the use of sustainable energy fuels and carbon offset measures. According to the results of the analysis, the operational efficiency strategy provides for: route optimization; increasing the occupancy and load factor of aircraft; weight loss on board; fleet renewal; acquisition of new generation aircraft (eg A320NEO), which is projected to reduce life cycle CO₂ emissions per aircraft by 1-15 %. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAFs) strategy: biofuels; synthetic fuel; hydrogen and electric fuels can reduce carbon emissions by 13-26 %. Most of all, it can reduce carbon emissions, namely by 30-70 % of the use of electric or hybrid aircraft. The carbon offset strategy complements other measures to reduce CO₂ emissions that cannot be reduced through the use of technological improvements, operational improvements and SAFs through compensation payments for exceeding carbon emissions. It is established that the process of decarbonization of civil aviation is based on such principles as: 1) decarbonization and strategic foresight; 2) implementation of environmental behavior in practice; 3) increasing regulatory flexibility; 4) accelerated creation of partnerships focused on climate protection; 5) digitization of data and processes to build trust and confirm results. The problem with the process of decarbonization of civil aviation is that fully electric, hybrid-electric and environmentally friendly commercial airliners operating on hydrogen are far from mass production due to flight physics, safety test requirements and current technological constraints. Sustainable aviation fuel will provide significant opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aviation, but it is currently produced to a limited extent and requires significant commercial development to achieve widespread use. On the positive side, reducing greenhouse gas emissions for civil aviation companies in the long run will mean improving their business reputation, diversifying their investor base, raising stock prices, reducing the cost of raising capital and expanding investment opportunities. In the following researches it is offered to make the analysis of influence of decarbonization on the basic financial and economic indicators of the enterprises of branch of civil aviation. Keywords: global warming, decarbonisation strategy, greenhouse gases, carbon-neutral growth, sustainable aviation fuel, operational efficiency, innovative technologies, carbon offset.

Innovative Approaches to Understand Human Behavior

The United Nations has defined five core capabilities required to respond to global challenges: stronger capabilities for data, digital transformation, innovation, strategic foresight, results and behavioral science. Behavioral science refers to an evidence-based understanding of how people behave, how they make decisions and respond to changes in their environment. The UN’s work is often linked to changing human behavior – for example, encouraging parents to allow all children to attend school or patients to comply with medical treatments. Behavioral science helps the UN diagnose barriers that prevent people from adopting new behaviors, understand enablers for behavioral change and design more effective interventions.

Entrepreneurship & leadership management tactics for business growth

The current article focuses on Business Growth Tactics, Entrepreneurship and Leadership Management, in which it highlights the key strategic roles of a leader that help sustain a business. This particular article is based on secondary sources, and it is developed to be more infographic-oriented so that the reader has access to the necessary information. The article commences with some brief information about entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial leadership skills before an attempt is made to highlight the potential strategies that are needed for business growth. The article encloses key factors that help in the growth of a business, for instance, the right strategic orientation, strategic foresight, creativity, and the role of a leader in an enterprise's growth. Further, the role of sound strategies in business growth, which includes effective digitalization strategies, innovative ecosystems, product innovation, and engaging the right people, are discussed with relevant examples from diversified industries.

New Strategic Foresight in EU

The article deals with the consideration of the concept and practice of the new strategic foresight being developed in the European Union. It summarizes the EU's experience in clarifying the conceptual framework, in the conceptual apparatus, methodology and expected practice of using strategic foresight for the development and implementation of policies to achieve the declared goals of long-term development. The main attention is paid to the analysis of four interrelated factors assessed by the European Commission as determining its target setting for sustainable development: socio-economic, geopolitical, green and digital, as well as issues of political decisions monitoring. Based on the results of the work, conclusions were made that are of fundamental importance for the formation of the prognostic component of domestic policy, with a focus on the general socio-economic and political conditions necessary to create a strategic forecasting system that is not yet available in Russia, adequate to the requirements of modern development.

Gauging the Importance of Strategic Foresight Factors Affecting Public Organisational Dynamic Capabilities

This paper presents a study on determine the importance of strategic foresight factors affecting dynamic capabilities of an organisation. Literature review found that 19 factors which are clustered in five domains of strategic foresight namely environmental scanning; scenario planning; knowledge creation; culture and formal organization. Data collection adopted a purposive random sampling technique of questionnaire survey amongst individuals who involved in decision-maker position of UAE organizations. A total of 209 respondents participated in the survey. The analysis of the collected data found that 11 of the factors are having high degree of importance and for the domains, four out of five domains are having high degree of importance. It also found that domain culture is having the highest rank amongst the five domains then follows by domain scenario planning, formal organisation, knowledge creation and the last rank is the environmental scanning domain. This research can conclude that the utilisation of strategic foresight has a potential role in improving public organisations as well as the country's national economic expansion. Therefore, policy makers and decision makers need to be innovative and focus on combining strategic foresight and dynamic capabilities through utilizing the significant/important factors that enhance the current status of organizations with future nature and requirements of work.

The mediating role of strategic foresight in the relationship between financial knowledge and strategic responses

This study aimed to clarify the mediating role of strategic foresight in its various forms (foresight, acumen, research) in the relationship between financial knowledge and strategic response in its dimensions (resource liquidity, business maturity, reactiveness and reactivity). To achieve this goal, this study was based on the descriptive analytical method, where the questionnaire was used to collect the primary data. (220) questionnaires were distributed to workers in the branches of commercial banks in the middle Euphrates cities (40) branches and (215) were retrieved from them. The results revealed that the adoption of financial knowledge enabled the organization, the study sample, to respond effectively to environmental dynamics through strategic foresight. Moreover, it was revealed that organizations that used financial knowledge were able to maximize their core competencies through strategic foresight, and thus provided added value to services efficiently over their competitors.

Strategic Innovation, Foresight and the Deployment of Project Portfolio Management under Mid-Range Planning Conditions in Medium-Sized Firms

The purpose of this paper is to examine the ability of a firm to innovate and absorb its innovative developments by borrowing concepts and models from project portfolio management (PPM). Using past research and the existing literature, it evaluates the potential to apply PPM to the medium-term strategic planning efforts of small- and medium-sized firms. The implementation of strategic innovation requires organizations to develop both a dynamic culture and flexible internal systems that yield to major external changes in their industry as well as internal resource changes. Such changes could include supply or value chain adjustments, changes in consumer behavior, re-allocation of internal resources or the responses of competitors. This paper examines the planning and implementation of project portfolio management tools in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (50–250 employees) with a mid-range (2–4 years) planning horizon that are required to innovate in a strategic context to remain competitive or to take advantage of new opportunities. It relates strategic foresight to the ability of the firm to adjust tactically, including in the utilization and development of internal tools, processes, systems and culture. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the potential for PPM methodologies and models to support decision making in a strategic context in SMEs, an area that is under-represented in the research on strategy. It also relates this foresight with strategic innovation and draws parallels between the strategic management planning process and the use of project portfolio management models. It argues that strategic innovation is closely tied with the ability not just to innovate but to absorb this innovation within the organizational processes and build organizational maturity. It also examines the potential use of project portfolio management models to aid strategic innovation. The use of PPM models in support of strategic innovation may contribute to the sustainability of SMEs as businesses and to the potential to identify new business models that enhance the sustainability of a firm’s competitive advantage, particularly in the medium-term.