The differences of coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of component and FR-4 board connected by solder joint generally cause the dissimilarity in shear strain and failure in solder joint when they are heated. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function (LSF) incorporating with thermal fatigue models is used in order to estimate the failure probability of solder joints under heated condition. Various thermal fatigue models, classified into five categories: categories four such as plastic strain-based, creep strain-based, energy-based, and damage-based except stress-based, are utilized in this study. The effects of random variables such as CTE, distance of the solder joint from neutral point (DNP), temperature variation and height of solder on the failure probability of the solder joint are systematically investigated by using a failure probability model with the first order reliability method (FORM) and thermal fatigue models.