Stability In China Research Articles

Capital controls in China: A necessity for macroeconomic stability

This paper investigates the crucial role of capital controls in maintaining macroeconomic stability in China. We develop an open macroeconomic model integrating capital controls within a managed floating exchange rate system. Our model shows that capital controls enhance the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions by restricting capital outflows and providing a broader array of policy options, though they may also create discrepancies between domestic and foreign asset holdings. Simulations using quarterly time-series data reveal that capital controls are essential for the success of both sterilized and non-sterilized interventions. These results indicate that the combined use of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions can reduce macroeconomic volatility in China. Moreover, our analysis of fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes suggests that an inappropriate regime choice can increase volatility in capital flows. Therefore, China should adopt a balanced financial approach within its managed floating system to stabilize the macroeconomy.

Spatiotemporal Distribution and Driving Mechanisms of Cropland Long-Term Stability in China from 1990 to 2018

Long-term stability is crucial in cropland for maintaining stable agricultural production and ensuring national food security. However, relatively few studies have been conducted on the long-term stability of cropland at the national level. This study assessed the long-term stability of cropland in China from 1990 to 2018 using a fine-resolution land use dataset. The experimental results indicated that the average area of unstable cropland in China from 1990 to 2018 amounted to 2.08 × 106 km2, 47.31% of the total. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau exhibited the highest average proportion of unstable cropland at 65.9%, followed by the northern arid and semiarid region, Southern China, and the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. The quantity of unstable cropland in China initially declined before increasing, reaching a final growth rate of 5.09%. Furthermore, this study explored the relevant driving factors of cropland’s long-term stability from both natural factors and human activities based on artificial neural networks. The relative importance of distance to vegetation reached a value of 0.30, indicating that it had the most significant influence on the long-term stability of cropland, followed by relief amplitude and soil type. This phenomenon may be attributed to the inadequate execution of the Grain for Green Policy and the requisition–compensation balance of cropland policy, along with the depletion of young and middle-aged laborers due to urban migration from rural areas. Local governments should focus on addressing the unsustainable exploitation of sloped land in rural mountainous or hilly regions while preventing urban developers from appropriating fertile cropland to compensate for less fertile areas.

Grassland-type ecosystem stability in China differs under the influence of drought and wet events

Grassland-type ecosystem stability in China differs under the influence of drought and wet events

Assessing the Effects of Trade-Related Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Credit Availability and Financial Stability in China

The recent trade wars between China, the United States, and Australia have significantly impacted global economic dynamics. As China relies heavily on international trade, these conflicts have led to fluctuations in the Chinese yuan (CNY), straining financial stability. This study aims to analyze the influence of this volatility in the exchange rate on China’s credit market, focusing on how fluctuations in the CNY against the U.S. dollar and Australian dollar have influenced credit availability, loan demand, and overall financial stability. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings reveal a strong correlation between exchange rate volatility and credit market conditions, with the depreciation of the CNY during trade tensions leading to tighter credit conditions and higher borrowing costs. Chinese banks responded by tightening lending standards and increasing interest rates, which helped mitigate some of the adverse effects. However, the ongoing nature of trade tensions underscores the need for continued vigilance and adaptive strategies, including economic diversification, strengthening financial infrastructure, and enhancing policy coordination to ensure long-term resilience and stability in China’s financial system.

Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China

Since the financial crisis, uncertainty has been a focus of attention in the financial sector. As the two-way opening-up of China's financial market continues to accelerate, special attention must be paid to the risks and challenges arising from cross-border capital flows to maintain financial market stability in China. This study uses predictive quantile regression and skewed t-distribution fitting method to examine the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the full probability distribution and tail risks of capital flows. Additionally, we apply the “Capital Flows at Risk (CFaR)” analysis framework from the new paradigm of macroeconomic research to the situation in China, to study the impact of EPU on CFaR. We find that EPU significantly affects the predictive distribution of capital flows. When EPU is rising, the downside risk of capital flows, that is, the left-tail risk of capital flows, will increase; however, when EPU is declining, the upside risk of capital flows, that is, the right-tail risk of capital flows, will increase. In recent years, the scale of China's CFaR has shown a fluctuating upward trend, and EPU has increased the scale of CFaR in the country. This study is significant for stabilizing international capital flows and preventing and defusing the external financial shocks of cross-border capital inflows and outflows.

Mapping sustainability-oriented China’s cropland use stability

Shifting to more sustainable use can curb cropland resource degradation and improve production resilience. However, most cropland use assessments are unilaterally focused on biophysical levels and productivity, ignoring the multi-dimensional aspects of degraded cropland. This study attempts to describe cropland use stability in China by proposing a multi-dimensional assessment framework (including quantity, quality, management, service, and risk) to provide a reference for designing land degradation-neutral strategies. Results show that multi-dimensional cropland use characteristics present significant spatial heterogeneity. Western regions are reserve resource agglomerations that can replenish cropland quantity. In contrast, main grain-producing areas cover most current resources with preferably cultivation quality, management efficiency, and ecosystem services, while risk resistance is weak (especially in Middle-lower Yangtze Plain). Generally, the stability of cropland use in Northeast Plain is the highest and in Loess Plateau the lowest. Besides, urbanization will occupy about 9.31% of the high-stability cropland in 2030, of which 70.29% will occur in Northeast Plain and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The total potential productivity loss in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain alone will reach 100.1 kt, equivalent to supplying the food demand of 199,200 people annually. Therefore, a sustainable-oriented refined cropland management strategy should be designed according to the hierarchical nested spatial layout of comprehensive planning-stability map-multi-dimensional utilization characteristics to ensure the loss-replenishment balance and stable production.

Divergent driving mechanisms of community temporal stability in China's drylands

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are reshaping dryland ecosystems globally at an unprecedented pace, jeopardizing their stability. The stability of these ecosystems is crucial for maintaining ecological balance and supporting local communities. Yet, the mechanisms governing their stability are poorly understood, largely due to the scarcity of comprehensive field data. Here we show the patterns of community temporal stability and its determinants across an aridity spectrum by integrating a transect survey across China's drylands with remote sensing. Our results revealed a U-shaped relationship between community temporal stability and aridity, with a pivotal shift occurring around an aridity level of 0.88. In less arid areas (aridity level below 0.88), enhanced precipitation and biodiversity were associated with increased community productivity and stability. Conversely, in more arid zones (aridity level above 0.88), elevated soil organic carbon and biodiversity were linked to greater fluctuations in community productivity and reduced stability. Our study identifies a critical aridity threshold that precipitates significant changes in community stability in China's drylands, underscoring the importance of distinct mechanisms driving ecosystem stability in varying aridity contexts. These insights are pivotal for developing informed ecosystem management and policy strategies tailored to the unique challenges of dryland conservation.

Study on Comprehensive Evaluation of Rural Economy in the Context of Rural Revitalisation

Under the rural revitalisation strategy, the research focus on China's rural economy has attracted extensive attention from academics. Based on China's rural economic data from 2012 to 2021, this study explores the impact of the rural revitalisation strategy on the rural economy. By analysing the connotation and characteristics of the rural economy, the three dimensions of economic strength, productivity and living standards of residents involved in the influencing factors are selected. The main factors affecting the rural economy were explored using principal component analysis and entropy value method, and the stability of the rural economy was studied in depth. The results show that agricultural output and the consumption level of rural residents are the main influences on the rural economy, while economic strength has the most far-reaching impact on the stability of the rural economy. This research framework expands the understanding of the development and stability of China's rural economy in recent years, and provides a theoretical basis and policy support for guiding the high-quality development of the rural economy under the strategy of rural revitalisation.

Seeking Stability in China's "Involuted Generation"

In recent years, the word “involution” (Nei Juan) has become a popular word in Chinese society to refer to the great competitive pressure young people in China now face in their life such as passing the college entrance examination and searching for a job. They are called the “involuted generation.” To study the involution phenomenon, I conducted eleven semi-structured interviews with students, parents, and teachers in Zhejiang Province in China. This study also explores the causes and effects of the phenomenon of involution by combining online research and a literature review. I argue that the pursuit of stability produces the present involution while the college entrance examination and differences in family background create different degrees of involution which intensifies the stress of competition. The effects of involution include anxiety and tension for both students and parents brought on by competition, the devaluation of academic qualifications in the job market, and the gap young people experience between their interests and careers.

The financialization of local government debt in China and its risk transmission to commercial banks

China's local government debt has risen sharply due to fiscal stimulus and decentralized financing. This debt expansion increases systemic risk as default risk is transmitted to banks, the primary holders of local debt. Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model incorporating local governments and banks, we show that local debt expansion increases banks' nonperforming loans and crowds out private credit, increasing bank risk-taking. We empirically examine 2010–2019 data on 350 Chinese banks and find that the level of local debt positively impacts bank risk-taking, especially low-capital, nonstate, and unlisted banks. The mechanisms operate through an increase in nonperforming loans due to default risk and a reduced regional repayment capacity due to crowded-out private credit. Our study reveals the impact of local debt on bank risk and financial stability in China. Policy implications include strengthening bank regulation and pursuing diversified government financing.

Manufacturing Society: How Party Building Reinforces Stability Maintenance in Grassroots China

Abstract While China's efforts to maintain social stability by recruiting social elites and establishing Party branches in pre-existing social and market organizations have been thoroughly explored, much less attention has been devoted to how grassroots Party organizations (GRPOs) have proactively incubated society and constructed coherent, interrelated and systematic stability maintenance strategies to identify and eliminate social instability in its early stages and prevent its escalation. Using qualitative data gathered from local areas in China, we uncovered three major strategies used by GRPOs to manufacture society: incubating quasi-bureaucratic organizations, co-opting community elites and embedding Party organizations in market and social organizations. In general, GRPOs manufacture society for three reasons: to revitalize the mobilization capacity of the party-state; to increase the available social resources for grassroots authorities; and to establish an input mechanism for citizens. This study not only provides empirical data on how China's stability maintenance regime works in practice but also calls for a rethinking of the capacity of authoritarian resilience.

The Rapid Rise of Digital Economy and Macroeconomic Stability in China after the Epidemic

In the 21st century, the digital economy has gradually become a new driving force for global economic growth. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated this trend, forcing countries to quickly adjust their economic strategies to adapt to the new challenges brought by the epidemic. This article focuses on the rapid rise of China's digital economy after the epidemic and its impact on macroeconomic stability. Firstly, this article defines the digital economy and emphasizes its core characteristics in modern society, such as high automation, low marginal costs, and cross-border integration. Subsequently, the importance of the digital economy in the context of the epidemic was analyzed, especially the key roles of online office, remote healthcare, e-commerce, and other fields in the epidemic. In summary, China's digital economy has not only rapidly risen after the epidemic, but also made significant contributions to the stability of the national economy at the macro level. This development provides useful reference for other countries in dealing with similar crises, and also indicates the key position of the digital economy in the future global economy.

Energy trade stability of China: Policy options with increasing climate risks

As the world's largest importer of energy, China has been facing severe energy security issues. In the context of the challenges of global energy transformation brought about by climate change and the intensification of global political risks, a survival analysis approach is used in this paper to investigate China's energy trade stability. The results show that the energy trade linkages between China and 153 other countries are complex and unstable, featuring short periods of trade with many countries. Specifically, geopolitical riskier areas, such as the Middle East and Africa, have the lowest trade stability. The survival curves also demonstrate clear heterogeneity among different types of energy. Climate risks, including both physical and transitional risks, are found to have significant effects on energy trade stability. Finally, several policy options are proposed to improve energy trade stability in China, paying special attention to the increasing globe climate risks.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Fluctuations in the RMB to US Dollar Exchange Rate

This article is based on the 2022 exchange rate fluctuation curve of the RMB against the USD and analyzes the factors affecting the fluctuation of the RMB against the USD exchange rate. The analysis reveals that the main influencing factors on the exchange rate include domestic economic conditions, international factors, interest rate levels, international balance of payments, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the domestic economic environment, factors such as economic growth rate, social investment, consumer spending, employment situation, and inflation rate also play significant roles in influencing the RMB exchange rate. The analysis presented in this article holds significant practical significance for maintaining stability in China's foreign exchange market.

Speed for Safety: The Establishment of Bankruptcy Courts and Bank Credit Risk in China

Abstract We investigate the effect of bankruptcy court establishment on the credit risk of municipal commercial banks in China from 2013 to 2020. Establishing bankruptcy courts reduces the non-performing loan ratio of municipal commercial banks. The effect is more pronounced in cities with low fiscal transparency and market fragmentation, and a strong rule of law. Furthermore, we argue that the bank’s loan provision and provision coverage ratio is the crucial intermediate variable in the relationship between bankruptcy court establishment and credit risk management. Our findings demonstrate the critical role of judicial system reform in promoting financial stability in China. JEL classification numbers: G21, G32, G33. Keywords: Bankruptcy court, Credit risk, Judicial reform.

SERVICE-ORIENTED CAREER PLANNING FOR MEDICAL UNIVERSITY STUDENTS: CLOSING THE GAPS

Medical students constitute a small part of the university population and are young people with high level of knowledge and creativity that the state focuses on training. They are important human resources to meet the industrial expectations, typically for national health. The employment of medical college graduates is not only related to the happiness of thousands of families, but also related to the quality of people's life and health, economic development, and social stability in China. In the face of increasingly severe employment situation, how to alleviate the "employment difficulty" of college students has aroused widespread concern in the society. In career planning education, the medical college students should be encouraged to know themselves, improve themselves, and improve their employment competitiveness. At present, the career planning education of college students in China still remains at the level of employment guidance, which needs to be constantly improved. The discussion on the service dimensions that need to be provided for the career planning of medical college students is not thorough and comprehensive. On the basis of the existing research, from the perspective of education, management and other disciplines, guided by relevant theories, this paper discusses the service dimensions of medical university students' career planning in a more in-depth and systematic way by using literature research methods. This paper follows the research idea of "status investigation -- finding problems -- suggestions". First in this paper, the medical college students' career planning service involved in the core concepts and related theories, and then influence the effect of medical college students' career planning services dimension analysis of the status quo to find the main problems and the reasons put forward to further strengthen and improve the service effect of medical college students' career planning. The service quality gap model is discussed and a career planning service quality framework is proposed.

Does China's natural forest logging ban affect the stability of the timber import trade network?

China's logging ban in natural forests (logging ban hereafter) is beneficial to domestic natural forest conservation, but the ban imposes uncertainties on the stability of the timber import trade network (network stability hereafter). Determining the effect of the logging ban on China's network stability is essential for developing rational and effective timber trade policies and sustainable forest management. We establish an analytical framework to investigate network stability based on the combination of network structure and sustainable forest management, employing the synthetic control method to examine the impact of the logging ban on network stability in China. The results reveal that the logging ban has a detrimental impact on China's network stability by affecting resource sourcing and cost stability. China's network status also faces instability risk following the implementation of the logging ban. Growing reliance on the global timber market as a result of the logging ban could aggravate the unsustainable risk of China's timber sources. Furthermore, the logging ban may weaken China's negotiating position in global timber markets, giving rise to larger trade cost fluctuations and uncertainties. This study provides policy recommendations for guiding timber import activities to mitigate the negative impact of the logging ban, which could help to strengthen network stability for China and promote sustainable forest operations.

Stability and consistency of school effects: evidence from senior high schools in China

ABSTRACT Education systems focus on issues related to school effects and differences. School effects are used as a basis for accountability in various countries including China. This study investigated the stability and cross-disciplinary consistency of value-added estimates based on student scores in selected schools in a city in central China. The results show that the school effects exhibited long-term stability and consistency across subject areas, with the gross effects model being more stable than the value-added model. In addition, the study found a direct link between school ranking and stability in China. Ranking schools more reasonably and holding schools accountable are focal issues in the Chinese education system.

Long-term assessments of cotton fiber quality in response to plant population density: Reconciling fiber quality and its temporal stability

Regulation of plant population density is crucial for optimizing cotton fiber quality. However, the relationship between plant density and fiber quality stability under contrasting climatic conditions remains unclear, and the compromise between fiber quality and temporal stability is unknown. In this study, based on a long-term field experiment with various plant densities (1.5–10.5 plants m–2) conducted from 2008 to 2021, cotton fiber quality variability, including fiber length, fiber strength, elongation, uniformity index, and micronaire, and their temporal stability, were evaluated. We determined the optimal plant density for cotton cultivation and elucidated the contributions of plant density and climatic conditions to the variability of cotton fiber quality and its temporal stability in China’s Yellow River Valley. The results revealed that cotton maintained its upper-intermediate quality throughout the study period, with fiber length, strength, elongation, uniformity index, and micronaire values ranging between 28.04 and 30.03 mm, 26.15–30.05 cN tex–1, 5.90–6.83%, 83.85–85.44%, and 4.24–5.14, respectively. An increase in plant density improved fiber quality but impaired temporal stability (P < 0.01), and slight increases in stability at lower plant densities resulted in substantially decreased probabilities of years with major declines in fiber quality class. Plant density and climatic conditions regulated the quality traits (23.5% and 69.3% of the explained variance, respectively), including fiber length, fiber strength, and micronaire, while climate was the most important factor (75.9% of the explained variance) in determining their temporal stability. Photosynthetically active radiation and maximum and mean temperature exhibited significant positive effects on fiber quality, whereas mean diurnal temperature range had the opposite effect. A plant density of 3.3–5.1 plants m–2 ensures the highest temporal stability of cotton fiber quality without declines in the fiber quality class. This study first provides insights into balancing cotton fiber quality and temporal stability through agronomic interventions, with implications for the quantitative prediction of future crop quality changes owing to climatic variation.

Quest for Peace in Afghanistan: Analysis of China’s Regional Policy after US Withdrawal

Peace and stability are critical for Afghanistan's and regional countries' security and socioeconomic interests. It is also necessary for landmark project of China, the Belt and Road Initiative, in the region. Therefore, China is consistently making concrete efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of United States without restoration of peace and stability has created a situation where there is likelihood of civil war in the country. An unstable Afghanistan would prove fatal for the interests and security of China as well as other neighbouring countries. On one hand, it has created security threats to Chinese interests and investment in Afghanistan and on the other hand militant organizations like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) regrouped their militants that posed direct threat to security and stability of China. The current study attempts to analyse the Chinese quest and pursuit for peace and stability in Afghanistan and whether China possible role along with the regional countries to establish a regional bloc of countries, like Pakistan, Russia Iran and Turkey could be workable for restoration of peace and stability in Afghanistan or not after the US and NATO forces withdrawal