Does China's natural forest logging ban affect the stability of the timber import trade network?

Abstract

China's logging ban in natural forests (logging ban hereafter) is beneficial to domestic natural forest conservation, but the ban imposes uncertainties on the stability of the timber import trade network (network stability hereafter). Determining the effect of the logging ban on China's network stability is essential for developing rational and effective timber trade policies and sustainable forest management. We establish an analytical framework to investigate network stability based on the combination of network structure and sustainable forest management, employing the synthetic control method to examine the impact of the logging ban on network stability in China. The results reveal that the logging ban has a detrimental impact on China's network stability by affecting resource sourcing and cost stability. China's network status also faces instability risk following the implementation of the logging ban. Growing reliance on the global timber market as a result of the logging ban could aggravate the unsustainable risk of China's timber sources. Furthermore, the logging ban may weaken China's negotiating position in global timber markets, giving rise to larger trade cost fluctuations and uncertainties. This study provides policy recommendations for guiding timber import activities to mitigate the negative impact of the logging ban, which could help to strengthen network stability for China and promote sustainable forest operations.