Stability In China Research Articles

Seasonal variability in potential and actual yields of winter wheat in China

Understanding the historical variability of winter wheat yield in China can provide insights into future wheat production security and adaptation measures. In this study, two indices, i.e., yield gap percentage (YGpercentage) and yield variation difference (VD), were employed to investigate the winter wheat relatively yield level and yield variability from 1980 to 2010 in 1340 counties in China using a county-level dataset and a crop model (APSIM-Wheat). The study area was classified into four types of regions with different yield patterns: relatively high-yield level and high stability (RHY-RHS), relatively high-yield level and low stability (RHY-RLS), relatively low-yield level and high stability (RLY-RHS), and relatively low-yield level and low stability (RLY-RLS). Relatively high-yield levels in terms of YGpercentage were found in the eastern parts of the Northern China Plain (NC) and the Yellow and Huai River Valleys (YH), the southern area of Xinjiang (XJ), and the northern part of the Middle and Lower Yangtze Valleys (YV), as well as a small section in the middle of Southwestern China (SW). Yield potential was more stable than the actual yield in most of the study regions, with positive VD. A decreasing trend was observed in both the YGpercentage and VD over the three decades. Consequently, the county percentage of RHY-RHS and RHY-RLS increased but the percentage of RLY-RHS and RLY-RLS decreased over the three decades, indicating improved winter wheat yield level and yield stability in China, which might be attributed to the development of agricultural technology and breeding. Nonetheless, there are still some vulnerable areas in need of further attention. Western NC and southern YH are regions with a potentially stable yield in the future. Given that YH accounts for a large proportion of winter wheat production in China, further investigation should be conducted to identify the underlying causes of the low-yield level and high yield variability in YH.

The effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in China

China has undertaken measures to regulate the prices of petroleum products since 1998 in order to deal with the world oil price shocks on its macro-economy. However, the effects of price regulation are yet unknown, especially when the world oil price fluctuates in different regimes. The study first analyses the mechanisms of petroleum product price (PPP) regulation (in the case of gasoline) and the crude oil-gasoline price fluctuation transmission, followed by the identification of regimes and their time intervals using regime-switching vector autoregressive model, and then estimates the effects of gasoline price regulation in reducing macroeconomic volatility. It is found that the world crude oil fluctuates in different regimes (the mild-fluctuation regime and the violent-fluctuation regime), the PPP regulation can reduce oil price volatility and then macroeconomic volatility, but it is more effective in the mild-fluctuation regime. The findings present a deeper understanding of the stabilization effect of PPP regulation on the macroeconomy, provide an evidence for sustaining China's PPP regulation for the purpose of macroeconomic stability, and offer policymakers new information for petroleum product pricing reforms.

Petitioning and Social Stability in China: Case Studies of Anti-nuclear Sentiment

Along with the nuclear renaissance in China, anti-nuclear sentiments are emerging, that are yet to be comprehensively studied by scholars. Conflicts arise due to rapid development and enormous social change, puzzling that stability remains in the society while these conflicts take place. This article analyses the relationship between social mobilizations and social stability in China in the context of anti-nuclear incidents and argues that there are political opportunities and resources for petitioners to exert their influence on the political system. The opportunities arise out of the decentralization and fragmentation of the political system, such as the diverging priorities of the central and local government. Furthermore, if the petitioners blame specific local governments and raise specific demands, local interest groups have a high chance to achieve their desired goals. Petitions facilitate communication between local interest groups and governments which may resolve social conflicts and preserve social stability.

Upward social mobility in China: Do cities and neighbourhoods matter?

As China's economic growth slows down, the declining hierarchical social system has the chance of revival. Little is known about the influence of local labour market on the chance of social mobility in the context of Chinese rapid urbanisation. Using large-scale nationally representative survey data and multilevel regressions, this study examines the relationship between labour market characteristics at the city and neighbourhood levels and individuals' perception of their current social status and chances of upward mobility. Results indicate that familiarity and mutual assistance among neighbours are positively associated with residents' perceived social status, and that economic growth rates and low unemployment rates are positively linked to the possibility of upward social mobility. Our findings stress the importance of economic prosperity in offering the chance of upward mobility and maintaining social stability in China.

Applying Data Envelopment Analysis in Measuring the Efficiency of Chinese Listed Banks in the Context of Macroprudential Framework

China is a bank-dominated country; therefore, the sustainability of the Chinese banking industry is important for economic development. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) was combined with the Malmquist index, and we statically and dynamically analyzed the efficiency of listed banks during the period 2012–2017. The results showed that 12 of the 17 banks improved their technical efficiency. The technical efficiency of three banks remained the same, whilst that of two banks had dropped slightly by less than 1.0%. The Chinese government has learned from the lessons of past financial crises to find a way to forestall financial crisis, and implemented macroprudential policy, therefore the banking industry has actively served the real economy and promoted economic development while paying attention to the prevention of financial risks. According to the report of The Banker in 2018, for the first time, the four biggest banks in China topped the list of the Top 1000 World Banks. The research showed that, the Chinese government applied macroprudential framework in the banking supervision, and the listed banks effectively resisted financial risks and realized steady growth. We believe that the macroprudential framework plays a positive role in the economic development and financial stability in China.

Farmers' identity, property rights cognition and perception of rural residential land distributive justice in China: Findings from Nanjing, Jiangsu Province

Justice in rural residential land distribution is vital to both farmers' living security and social stability in China. Based on the Self-interest Theory and endowment effect, this article discusses the impact of farmers' identity and property rights cognition on their perceptions of rural residential land distributive justice using the survey data of 565 rural households in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China by principal component analysis and binary logistic regression. The results indicate that (1) farmers' identity would impact their perceptions of rural residential land distributive justice, among different farmers, perceptions of rural residential land distributive justice differed greatly; (2) there is a negative relationship between farmers' perceptions of rural residential land distributive justice and their private property rights cognition; (3) farmers' private property rights cognition would be an amplifier to the impact of their identity on rural residential land distributive justice perceptions. We finally argue that rural residential land policy judgment about injustice should focus on farmers' identity, and the government should protect legitimate rights and interests of farmers in the process of rural residential land distribution.

Constraints on maize yield and yield stability in the main cropping regions in China

Abstract Understanding the distributions of zones of high/low and stable/unstable recorded maize (Zea mays L.) yield, and identifying the constraints on yield and yield stability, is essential for optimized crop distribution and agricultural management to mitigate limitations and improve maize production under climate change. In this study, we collected recorded maize yields and simulated three levels of yield potentials (radiation-temperature yield potential Yp, climatic yield potential Ypw and soil-climatic yield potential Ypws) with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM-Maize) from 1981 to 2010 in the three main cropping regions in China [the North China spring maize region (NCS), the Huanghuaihai summer maize region (HS), and the Southwest China mountain maize region (SCM)]. The distributions of four categories of maize yield and yield stability zones, and limitations by precipitation, soil and technology & management on average yield, yield stability and total production were analyzed. The county-level average recorded yields during the period under study were 4624.26 kg ha−1, 4718.32 kg ha−1 and 3880.44 kg ha−1 in NCS, HS and SCM, respectively. Coefficients of variations (CV) for recorded yields were 0.40, 0.30 and 0.27 in NCS, HS and SCM, respectively. Based on comprehensive analysis of both average yields and CV values, we divided the main maize cropping areas into four zone categories: those with high and stable yields (high-stable zone), those with high and unstable yields (high-unstable zone), those with low and stable yields (low-stable zone), and those with low and unstable yields (low-unstable zone). Comparison of Yp, Ypw, Ypws and Ya at the county level, among the three regions, revealed that precipitation was the most important limiting factor on both averages (56%, 9436.97 kg ha−1 and 53%, 8114.21 kg ha−1) and CVs (0.42 and 0.39) of yield in all four zone types in NCS and HS. On the other hand, technology & management was the most important limiting factor in SCM (39%, 3934.87 kg ha−1). Total maize productions were reduced by 47.6% and 52.7% by precipitation in NCS and HS, respectively. Nevertheless, the limiting effect of soil was lower than that of technology & management in NCS, while it was higher in HS. In SCM, technology & management was the most important limiting factor (1295.72 × 104 t and 39.3%), followed by precipitation (613.80 × 104 t and 18.6%) and soil (219.62 × 104 t and 6.7%). In the three main cropping regions, the limiting effect of each factor on total productions in high-stable zone was the highest among all four zone types. Our results could be used to provide a theoretical basis for targeted climate change adaptation policies to improve maize yield and yield stability in China. In addition, our results may serve as a reference for other maize cropping regions in the world.

Conflicts and regional culture: The general features and cultural background of illegitimate housing demolition in China

Conflicts caused by housing demolition and relocation have been a major threat to social stability in China. However, our knowledge of what characterizes these conflicts and how they emerge remains inadequate. This article aims to address these two questions. In a general sense, this paper is also an attempt to promote a better understanding of the relationship between conflicts and regional culture. Based on an analysis of 575 cases of illegitimate demolition collected from news websites, we find that most illegitimate demolition cases occur against the background of the public sector's expropriation in urbanization projects. Moreover, a spatial agglomeration of illegitimate demolition cases is found north of the Yangtze River. A count data regression model is developed to assess whether regional culture is relevant. The results confirm that regional cultural features, which are quantified using 7 cultural dimensions of the GLOBE project, influence the probability of illegitimate demolition. Specifically, residents of a region with higher uncertainty avoidance, humane orientation and in-group collectivism are more likely to experience illegitimate demolition. In contrast, a region characterized by high performance orientation, assertiveness, institutional collectivism and power distance has a relatively low probability of experiencing illegitimate demolition.

Is Defense Spending Inflationary? Time–frequency Evidence from China

This study examines the nexus between the defense spending growth rate and inflation to test whether defense spending is inflationary in China, particularly in times of peace. Using wavelet analysis, we find that the linkage between the defense spending growth rate and inflation changes over time and across frequencies. We provide evidence supporting negative leading effects of inflation on the defense spending growth rate in certain periods across various frequencies. The results illustrate that the relationship is stronger at the short- to medium-term horizon of less than eight years than it is in the long term. No positive leading effect of defense spending on inflation is demonstrated, showing that defense spending is not inflationary in China. The results indicate that inflation lowers the defense spending growth rate at short and medium scales, particularly in peace time. This study provides new insights into the nexus between defense spending and inflation and emphasizes that such a correlation has time and frequency features. Meanwhile, given that there is little evidence supporting the idea that defense spending is inflationary, a moderate increase in defense spending will not damage price stability in China.

Plant geographical range size and climate stability in China: Growth form matters

AbstractAimGeographical variation of range size is thought to be linked to climate seasonality and Quaternary glacial–interglacial oscillations. In addition, the importance of long‐term climate stability is expected to be modulated by species' migration abilities. For plants, growth forms integrate traits that affect migration ability. Hence, we assess the relative importance of short‐ and long‐term climate stability for range size patterns in plants and whether long‐term stability is more important for more poorly migrating growth forms.LocationChina.Time periodLast 21 ka.Major taxa studiedVascular plants.MethodsA dataset including > 30,000 vascular plants was used to quantify geographical patterns of range size across China for all species and for eight growth forms separately. Spatial and non‐spatial regressions with information‐theoretical multi‐model selection were performed to estimate the explanatory importance of climate seasonality and climate‐change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. The proportion of endemism for each growth form was also calculated.ResultsLarge geographical range sizes were generally observed in regions with strong climate seasonality and high climate‐change velocity. The association between range size and velocity was stronger for perennial herbs and shrubs than for ferns, annual herbs, climbers and trees and stronger for small than for large trees; that is, more important for the growth forms with lower migration capacities. In line with this interpretation, growth forms strongly influenced by velocity also tend to have high proportions of endemism, which is also consistent with a relatively low ability to migrate.Main conclusionsRange size patterns of vascular plants in China are shaped by both climate seasonality and long‐term climate stability, even though the region had a relatively mild influence from the Pleistocene glaciations, with a stronger influence of palaeoclimate stability on more poorly migrating groups. The differential influences of palaeoclimate stability across growth forms suggest that it needs further attention in research and management and that different growth forms are likely to respond in different ways to future climate changes.

Shaking up and making up China: how the party-state compromises and creates ontological security for its subjects

A growing chorus of observers has warned of threats to regime stability in China in recent years. In spite of these concerns, the party-state’s grip on power in many respects appears as strong today as at any time since 1989, making it a remarkable outlier in a shrinking pool of long-surviving authoritarian regimes. This article addresses the debate over the resilience of the Chinese party-state by suggesting that one source of this resilience lies in the regime’s distinct functions in citizens’ experience of ontological security. Ontological security refers to a basic need of individuals for a sense of continuity and order in events. The main argument is that China’s party-state has developed a mode of rule that both compromises and creates ontological security for its citizens. On one level, the party-state undermines individuals’ ontological security. The regime has engineered profound transformations of Chinese society, producing conditions that compromise its subjects’ ontological security. At the same time, the party-state provides individuals with resources to buttress their ontological security. Official discourses function as anchors that assist individuals in this pursuit. A survey of research on Chinese politics supports these conclusions.

Analysis and recommendations for the adaptability of China's power system security and stability relevant standards

In developing power grids, setting standards is critical to its success. The development of China's power industry has proposed new requirements for power systems to ensure secure and stable operations. The principal standards for the security and stability of China's current power systems are analyzed in terms of operational control, generator-grid coordination and simulation. The shortcomings are pointed out and the directions of future development are discussed. In the end, the study highlighted the following key areas that require further research and improvement: the evaluation criteria of power system security and stability should be improved to ensure the secure and stable operation of China's power systems; the operational control standards should be constantly enhanced to increase the reliability and flexibility of operational control strategies; generator-grid coordination standards should be upgraded to improve the coordination between the generator control protection system and the grid; and the simulation methodology should be standardized in future power system security and stability research.

Sons and Lovers: Political Stability in China and Europe Before the Great Divergence

Rulers’ long duration in the medieval period had contributed to the rise of Europe. But what explained premodern ruler duration? While the extant answers focus on formal, political institutions, I examine the role of marriage and inheritance norms in affecting ruler survival. Using a novel dataset of over 1,000 monarchs in China and Europe from 1000 to 1800 CE, I obtain two findings that have been overlooked by the existing literature. First, contrary to the view that European rulers had exceptional stability, I find that Chinese monarchs stayed in power longer than their European counterparts. Second, I find a strong effect of family practices on ruler survival. More liberal marriage and inheritance norms provided Chinese emperors with sustained availability of male heirs, which reduced palace coups. But the Church’s control of royal marriage and inheritance in Europe decreased the number of male heirs, which increased the probability of a deposition.

United States Leadership in East Asia and China’s State-by-state Approach to Regional Security

China’s rapid growth in comprehensive capabilities has been accompanied by an increasingly serious rise dilemma. The rise dilemma refers to the dilemma a rising great power faces, as it seeks to maintain the growth in comprehensive capabilities and international influence, while simultaneously managing the increasing external security pressures generated by its growth. Provided that the United States continues to lead its East Asian allies through providing security protection and shared norms, China must adopt a state-by-state approach in integrating the tripartite relationship between China, the United States and China’s neighbors into a coherent policy framework. In the context of a state-by-state approach, China needs to employ strategic hedging to maintain stability in China–US strategic relations. At the same time, two dimensions need consideration in determining a specific security policy towards a given neighbor, i.e., whether a state is help-dependent (depending on the US security protection) or self-help (safeguarding its security independently), and the extent to which that a state harbors concerns over China’s rise.

Quantitative analysis of the impact of droughts and floods on internal wars in China over the last 500 years

Although many large-N quantitative studies have evidenced the adverse effects of climatic extremes on social stability in China during the historical period, most of them rely on temperature and precipitation as major explanatory variables, while the influence of floods and droughts on social crises is rarely measured. Furthermore, a comparison of the climate-society nexus among different geographic regions and at different temporal scales is missing in those studies. To address this knowledge gap, this study examines quantitatively the influence of floods and droughts on internal wars in three agro-ecological (rice, wheat, and pastoral) regions in China in AD1470–1911. Poisson regression and wavelet transform coherence analyses are applied to allow for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the climate-war nexus. Results show that floods and droughts are significant in driving internal wars in historical China, but are characterized by strong regional variation. In the rice region, floods trigger internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the wheat region, both floods and droughts cause internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the pastoral region, internal wars are associated with floods only at the multi-decadal time scale. In addition, the multi-decadal coherence between hydro-climatic extremes and internal wars in all three of the agro-ecological regions is only significant in periods in which population density is increasing or the upper limit of regional carrying capacity is being reached. The above results imply that the climate-war nexus is mediated by regional geographic factors such as physical environmental setting and population pressure. Hence, we encourage researchers who study the historical human-climate relationship to boil down data according to geographic regions in the course of statistical analysis and to examine each region individually in follow-up studies.

Socioeconomic factors affecting the job satisfaction levels of self-employed container truck drivers: a case study from Shanghai Port

ABSTRACTThe job satisfaction level (JSL) of self-employed container truck drivers (SCTDs) is vital to the container trucking industry’s (CTI) stability in China. An anonymous field survey of 645 SCTDs was conducted at Shanghai Port. Three ordered probit models were, respectively, developed to analyze the drivers’ JSLs, their attitudes, and reactions to a CTI downturn. This study contributes to the literature that the demographic variables were not statistically significant for the SCTDs’ current JSLs, while higher income SCTDs with fewer expenses were expected to have higher JSLs. During an industry downturn, drivers with families in Shanghai showed more job dissatisfaction. More working hours, lower income, expensive diesel fuel, a high consumer price index (CPI), and a low freight-to-distance ratio (FDR) significantly lowered the JSLs. An increase in the price of diesel fuel and the CPI, and a lower FDR exposed the industry to risk and instability. Additionally, credible evidence indicated that as the dissatisfaction levels of SCTDs rise in a downturn, SCTDs implement more practical measures that may negatively affect the industry’s stability as well as society’s. Based on these findings, managerial or policy implications were proposed to efficiently improve SCTDs’ JSLs and CTI stability in Shanghai.

Policy Challenges in Maintaining Renminbi Stability in China

This paper examines the policy challenges and dilemmas faced by China’s authorities in balancing exchange rate stability with the policy necessity of monetary autonomy. China will have to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility, particularly as the capital account becomes increasingly liberalized and the government pushes forward with RMB internationalization.

Ex-post cap adjustment for China’s ETS: an applicable indexation rule, simulating the Hubei ETS, and implications for a national scheme

ABSTRACTChina plans to launch its nationwide Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2017. Uncertainty in China’s future economic growth rate and its effect on underlying emissions may need to be addressed to ensure stability of the scheme. This article investigates an ex-post cap adjustment mechanism for China’s ETS. An applicable rule for indexation of emissions targets to gross domestic product (GDP) adjustment is presented. Such an ex-post optimal emissions intensity target is estimated in an empirical simulation of the Hubei ETS, a large pilot scheme in a fast-growing Chinese province. And its implications for China’s planned national ETS have been discussed. The article finds that by correcting the emissions cap for the difference between expected and realized GDP, the ex-post adjustment can minimize the abatement costs. It can also limit the influence of uncertainties, as it minimizes the standard deviation of realized abatement, abatement cost, and allowance price for a given expected emissions reduction. In addition, with a limited number of parameters requiring estimation, the ex-post cap adjustment mechanism is feasible. It is consistent with the anticipated design of China’s planned national ETS and could be used alongside other design options such as price corridors.POLICY RELEVANCEIt will be important for the stability of China’s planned national ETS to address uncertainty about future GDP growth which can significantly affect underlying emissions growth. This paper proposes a specific solution, namely an ex-post cap adjustment mechanism for the ETS cap. This method provides flexibility with transparent rules, would be consistent with China’s overall ETS policy design, and could be implemented in practice as the required parameters can be readily estimated.

‘No Malicious Incidents’

Based on participant observation and in-depth interviews with judges, this article demonstrates the significant role of concern for social stability in China’s divorce law practice in highly contested and potentially explosive cases. This is evident in the current use of mediation procedures. Since the judge is held responsible for keeping the parties in check, the concern for social stability dominates proceedings. The legal criterion of ‘the breakdown of mutual affection’ is eclipsed by the political principle of ‘no malicious incidents’. This emphasis on maintaining stability, however, paradoxically reproduces social instability because it incentivizes violence in the domestic sphere. It also reinforces gender inequality. This study suggests the need to reflect upon the appropriate role of the judiciary in divorce proceedings and the tenuous boundary between law and politics in contemporary China.

Особенности и механизмы обеспечения социально-политической стабильности в современном китайском обществе

This article discusses the features and mechanisms of ensuring and maintaining social and political stability in China. Analyzes the scientific theoretical foundation in the study of this phenomenon, developed by Russian and Chinese scientists. Political stability in contemporary China is understood as a precondition for effective social and economic development. The paper studied the treatment of leadership in China from different generations to tools approval of social and political stability as a way of implementing the modernization program of the political course. It has been found that maintaining the political stability of the society in modern China made possible by the harmonization of public relations, flexible national policy, economic growth, trends in socio-economic development and the use of ideological tools. The author studied the basic mechanisms of the stability of the political system of China at the present stage. It is concluded that a stable political development in contemporary China strengthens the regime and the preservation of the monopoly of the CCP to political power.