Stability In China Research Articles

Quest for Peace in Afghanistan: Analysis of China’s Regional Policy after US Withdrawal

Peace and stability are critical for Afghanistan's and regional countries' security and socioeconomic interests. It is also necessary for landmark project of China, the Belt and Road Initiative, in the region. Therefore, China is consistently making concrete efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of United States without restoration of peace and stability has created a situation where there is likelihood of civil war in the country. An unstable Afghanistan would prove fatal for the interests and security of China as well as other neighbouring countries. On one hand, it has created security threats to Chinese interests and investment in Afghanistan and on the other hand militant organizations like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) regrouped their militants that posed direct threat to security and stability of China. The current study attempts to analyse the Chinese quest and pursuit for peace and stability in Afghanistan and whether China possible role along with the regional countries to establish a regional bloc of countries, like Pakistan, Russia Iran and Turkey could be workable for restoration of peace and stability in Afghanistan or not after the US and NATO forces withdrawal

The destabilizing effect of mutual fund herding: Evidence from China

This paper examines the impact of mutual fund herding on the stability of China's stock market through the lens of idiosyncratic volatility. We show that mutual fund herding significantly amplifies future idiosyncratic volatility up to one-and-half years, suggesting a persistent destabilizing effect. We find that the destabilizing effect is larger for stocks with high mutual fund ownership and in high investor-sentiment periods. Furthermore, mutual fund herding destabilizes the stock market even further after China implemented the share reform in 2011. The destabilizing effect of mutual fund herding is robust to alternative measures of risk and China's institutional setting helps mitigate endogeneity concerns.

The Historical and Endogenous Logic of Social Stability in China

The Chinese civilization has lasted for more than 5, 000 years, which has formed the cultural phenomenon of social stability in China. The reason of this stability can be traced back to the stress countermeasures of the primitive population to the natural and social environment, as a result, a meme is formed that causes are inherited by causes. China’s social stability has formed a systematic and complex dynamic self-consistent mechanism, and in the new historical period, with its unique charm coruscates the vigorous vitality.

Influence of dividend tax policy tied to investment horizon on stock price stability: Evidence from the 2015 dividend tax reform in China

AbstractWe examine how the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon enforced on September 8, 2015, influences stock price stability in China's A‐share market. As the new dividend tax policy waives the tax on cash dividends for investors holding a stock for more than a year, it encourages long‐term investment behavior. From 2013 to 2017, we find that stock turnover, return volatility, and turnover volatility decrease after the policy enforcement, especially for stocks with high dividend yields. This result shows that dividend tax reforms increase investors' stock investment horizons and help stabilize the market. However, our findings demonstrate that stock crash risk increases after policy enforcement. Further analysis shows that earnings management through real activities manipulation for stocks with a higher dividend yield contributes to an increase in stock crash risk. Therefore, one externality of the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon is that top managers of firms with a higher dividend yield may take advantage of investors' passive longer‐term investment behavior and engage in more earnings management. This result suggests that regulatory agencies should pay attention to top managers' earnings management behavior after enacting policies that encourage long‐term investment.

What to Expect For the Retail CBDC: Evidence from E-payment and Financial Stability in China and Korea

This study explores what can be expected for launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) by investigating relationship between e-payments and financial stability. Most studies analyzed the impact of CBDC on financial stability focusing on a single nation’s economy. Few studies prospected the impacts of CBDC on the financial stability by comparing two nations with varying payment infrastructures. This study uses e-payment as a proxy for CBDC to derive implications on retail CBDC and financial stability.
 This study is significant in that it seeks to prospect the effect of CBDC on financial stability by employing a real data analysis. This paper first identifies the causal correlation between e-payment and financial stability in China and Korea using a VAR model. Then, it employs a LSDV model to measure the effect of latent variables on financial stability in China and Korea when the coefficient between e-payment and financial stability is fixed equal. I use the quarterly panel data of capital adequacy ratios (CAR), e-payments, stock prices, and treasury bond yields spanning from 2014:Q1-2022:Q2. The results of the Granger test suggest that there is no Granger cause relationship between e-payments and BIS capital ratios. Meanwhile, the results of LSDV suggest that e-payments and financial stability are positively correlated and it is statistically significant. The positive correlation are larger when the variables affecting the financial stability are controlled. The results also suggest that the Korea-specific component is larger than the China-specific component implying that financial stability in Korean economy is more likely to be affected by the latent factors other than e-payment compared to the Chinese economy. Yet, owing to the negative impact of COVID-19 on the banking sector, the coefficient of e-payment and the financial stability is negative in the COVID sample. The risk premium is found to have a negative correlation with financial stability, and it was more evident in the Korea-specific component than in the China-specific component. It is inferred from these findings that China would have a greater incentive to launch a retail CBDC than Korea considering its prospected positive effect on financial stability.

Navigational space for the absence of sustainability assurance in China

PurposeThis case study presents a critical analysis of why and how corporate managers in China are reluctant to adopt sustainability reporting assurance (SRA) provided by externally independent third-party assurers, despite the fact that it is acknowledged as a value-adding activity globally.Design/methodology/approachA longitudinal fieldwork case study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 in a Chinese central state-owned enterprise (CSOE), a pioneer in sustainability reporting practice since the mid-2000s, to collect first-hand empirical data on managerial perceptions of the adoption of external SRA. Semi-structured interviews with 25 managers involved in sustainability (reporting) practice were conducted. The interview data were triangulated with an analysis of archival documents and board meeting minutes pertaining to the undertakings of sustainability practices in the case study organization.FindingsOur empirical analysis suggests that while managers recognize the benefits of adopting external SRA in enhancing the legitimacy of sustainability accountability, they oppose SRA because of their deep-rooted allegiance to the dominant logic of sociopolitical stability in China. SRA is envisaged to risk the stability of the socialist ideology with which CSOEs are imbued. Therefore, any transformational approach to accepting a novel (foreign) practice must be molded to gain control and autonomy, thereby maintain the hegemony of stability logic. Instead of disregarding external verification, managers of our case SOE appear to harness sustainability reporting as a navigational space to engage in internally crafted alternative manners in order to resist the rationality of SRA.Originality/valueThe empirical analysis presents a nuanced explanation as to why internal managers have hitherto been reluctant to embrace the embedding of independent assurance into the sustainability reporting process. Our prolonged fieldwork provides ample context-specific, intra-organizational evidence regarding the absence of SRA in Chinese CSOEs, which warrants more attention given their considerable presence in the global economy. In addition, the empirical analysis contributes to our understanding of the managerial capture of sustainability issues in a specific context of state capitalism and how organizations and individuals in an authoritarian regime interpret and respond to novel discourses derived from distinct institutional settings.

The dynamic impact of monetary policy on financial stability in China after crises

This research investigates the role that China's monetary policy has played in maintaining financial stability after crises in the 21st century. We construct a financial stability index (FSI) with eight variables from four characteristics that reflect variations in the financial stability of China, and analyze the dynamic impacts of China's monetary policies on financial stability with a time-varying parameter vector-autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The three major crises that China has been involved in the past 15 years (i.e., the 2008 global financial crisis, 2015 stock market crash in China, and the ongoing COVID-19 crisis) indicate that the scale of social financing, stock market performance, and the degree of financial deepening in China have great influences on financial stability. We observe supportive evidence, moreover, that both quantitative and price-based monetary policies can promote financial stability after crises in China, especially in the short term. The quantitative policy is more effective than price-based monetary policy and has become the main policy tool in China. At a time when the world economy is still suffering from the COVID-19 crisis, the quick economic recovery is an imperative task for all countries. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to understand the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability after crises.

Fintech application on banking stability using Big Data of an emerging economy

The rapid growth and development of financial technological advancement (Fintech) services and innovations have attracted the attention of scholars who are now on a quest to analyse their impact on the banking sector. This study conducts several kinds of analyses to measure the effect of the fintech era on the stability of the Chinese banking sector. It uses Big Data and performs Pearson correlation and regression analysis on the fintech era’s transition period to measure the impact of several explanatory variables— institutional regulation, government stability, bank credit to deposit ratio, and economic growth— on the outcome variables, which includes Nonperforming loans (NPLs) and its numerical measurement in relation to the mean score of the Big Data (Z-score). This study uses yearly Big Data from 1995–2018 and revealed that compared to the first wave of the fintech era, the second wave helped in the reduction of NPLs and the enhancement of financial stability in China. This study concludes that in the second wave of the fintech era, the explanatory variables mentioned above had a positive impact on NPLs and banking stability. This work helps comprehend fintech development in modern society and the importance of its disruptive forces in developing and developed countries.

The ballot or the bullet? Public awareness of grassroots elections and regime stability in China

AbstractThis study examines the attitudinal and behavioral consequences of holding local elections in China. Using survey data to test the propositions that elections do not alleviate pressure from society butreasonably make state–society conflict manageable for the Chinese Communist regime, evidence suggests that being aware of elections is negatively associated with citizens' involvement in collective activities that would destabilize the regime. Instead, the awareness of elections is positively correlated with people's willingness to use the institutionalized mechanism, letters and visits (shangfang), to solve their concerns. The findings imply that although elections may help buttress China's authoritarian rule, the survivability of the Chinese Communist Party is still dependent on whether existing institutions can function well in reducing public grievances.

Ownership concentration and bank stability in China

ABSTRACT Ownership concentration (OC) is important for improving bank stability, but its effect is arguable. Based on a sample of Chinese listed banks, we uncover a positive effect of OC on bank stability captured by Z-score, where the effect can be attributed to higher returns and capital levels of banks with more concentrated ownership. We also find that such banks have higher return volatilities and asset risks. These findings are more pronounced for smaller banks. An important policy implication is that bankers and regulators need to weigh the favourable and adverse effects of OC.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on price Co-movements in China

The COVID-19 crisis has caused violent fluctuations in prices, and government responses to the pandemic further intensify the uncertainty of price changes. This study evaluates the dynamic price co-movement of main consumption categories within an Additive Bayesian Network (ABN) framework, which shows dramatically fluctuating price risks during the pandemic period. The global fears for COVID-19 affects price co-movements in China negatively with a direct linkage. By contrast, confirmed cases in China, confirmed cases around the world, and fears for the domestic pandemic situation are indirectly related with price co-movements through financial markets. The exchange rate and international hedging assets such as gold play important intermediary roles in such relationships. Meanwhile, volatile international markets including crude oil and Bitcoin are also indirectly linked with price changes in China. Comparing with the situation in China, the global pandemic appears to be a more important factor influencing the price stability in China. Overall, the impacts of COVID-19 on price co-movements are empirically demonstrated, which highlights the importance of prudent policies in response to the pandemic.

Can Grid Governance Fix the Party-state's Broken Windows? A Study of Stability Maintenance in Grassroots China

AbstractGrid governance has been developed by the Chinese party-state to collect intelligence at the grassroots level for the early pre-emption of what it defines as social instability. Using data collected from four months’ participant observation and extensive interviews with personnel who work in the grid governance system in what we call W Street, a location in a second-tier city in southern China, this paper examines how China's grid governance is used for stability maintenance and how in practice the system has become alienated from its original purpose of social control. We find that grid governance is achieved mainly through three mechanisms: intelligence gathering, case coordination and real-time reporting for stability maintenance. We further reveal that while grid governance provides an important infrastructural power for intelligence gathering, the realization of this power could be hindered by contradictory logics among different levels of government. This research not only provides empirical data on how China's grid governance works in practice but also calls for a rethinking of the capacity of China's stability maintenance regime.

Spatial evolution of cultivated land in the Heilongjiang Province in China from 1980 to 2015.

Sustaining cultivated land is critically important for food security, economic development, and social stability in China. China has been developing rapidly since the adoption of the Chinese Economic Reform of 1978, revealing the spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land can provide valuable information for estimating and sustaining Chinese food security. In this study, we analyzed the spatial evolution of cultivated land from 1980 to 2015 in the Heilongjiang Province, one of the most important grain production regions in China, by combining five land-use databases, a geographic information system, and mathematical models. The results showed that cultivated land in the Heilongjiang Province increased by 33,234 km2 (23%) from 1980 to 2015. The increase primarily resulted from land conversion from the forest (11,511 km2), grassland (9780 km2), and unused land (9696 km2). Additionally, cultivated land-use change's spatial characteristics differed among decadal periods. Spatial changes were stronger during 1990-2000 than in the other periods (1980-1990, 2000-2010, and 2010-2015). The landscape shape index indicated that cultivated land development had a regular changing pattern but showed a trend toward irregular development over the study period. The spatial expansion of cultivated land showed a strong directional trend, which was further found to be associated with geomorphological factors, indicating the prominent controls of abiotic factors on cultivated land expansion. This study provides an overview of the long-term spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land and the key abiotic controls on cultivated land use change. This information can help local government policymakers effectively balance regional development, environmental protection, and food security.

Family-of-origin triangulation and marital stability: A multiple mediation model

Previous research on family triangulation has mainly focused on nuclear family triangulation. In this study we explored the effects of family-of-origin triangulation on marital stability in China, and the mediating roles of parenting sense of competence and coparenting. Participants were 1,144 Chinese parents aged 24 to 48 years, who completed surveys on family-of-origin triangulation, parenting sense of competence, coparenting, and marital stability. The results show that family-of-origin triangulation was negatively associated with marital stability. This relationship was mediated by coparenting, but the mediating effect of parenting sense of competence was nonsignificant. In addition, parenting sense of competence and coparenting sequentially mediated the relationship between family-of-origin triangulation and marital stability. Our findings highlight the risk of harm to marital stability from family-of-origin triangulation.

Real-time monitoring system for rotor temperature of a large turbogenerator based on SmartMesh IP wireless network communication technology

In this study, a real-time rotor temperature monitoring system for large turbogenerators using SmartMesh IP wireless network communication technology was designed and tested. The system is capable of providing comprehensive, accurate, continuous, and reliable real-time temperature monitoring for turbogenerators. Additionally, it has demonstrated satisfactory results in a real-time monitoring test of the rotor temperature of various famous large-scale turbogenerators and giant nuclear power half-speed turbogenerators designed and manufactured in China. The development and application of this wireless temperature measurement system would aid in improving the intelligent operation quality, safety, and stability of China's large turbine generators and even the entire power system.

Formal Credit-Assisted New Agricultural Business: A Multifactor Analysis Based on BP Neural Network

In recent years, the new agricultural business entities have grown rapidly in all parts of the country and have become an effective carrier to achieve the basic stability of China’s rural family operation system and moderate-scale agricultural operation. However, the systemic defects of rural financial market and the credit rationing of formal financial institutions make the capital needs of rural areas unsatisfied for a long time. Financial demand determines the direction of supply reform. Therefore, in order to improve rural financial supply and promote the transformation and development of agricultural economy under the current situation, it is necessary to effectively understand the formal credit demand and the impact factors of accessibility of the new agricultural business entities, which represents the direction of China’s agricultural development in the future. Based on back propagation (BP) neural network, this paper constructs the farmers’ formal credit availability prediction model and studies the formal credit demand and the impact factors of the availability of new agricultural business entities. The experimental results show that the farmers’ formal credit availability prediction model has good performance in prediction accuracy, prediction time, and mean squared error.

Retracted] Research on Spatio‐Temporal Complexity Evolution and Influencing Factors of “Nongrain” in Guangxi

The “nongrain” problem of farmland has an important influence on grain production safety and planting structure stability in China. Using statistical analysis and spatial analysis tools to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of “nongrain” cultivation trend in Guangxi, and through the geographically weighted regression model to analyze the factors affecting the degree of “nongrain” cultivation trend in Guangxi. The results showed that (1) the proportion of nongrain crops in Guangxi was increasing from 2009 to 2019, and the decrease of rice planting areas and the increase of vegetable planting area were the main reasons for the trend of “nongrain” in Guangxi. (2) the proportion of oil crop planting area increased rapidly in northwest Guangxi, and the overall growth rate was faster in 2009–2014. The proportion of vegetable planting area increased rapidly in the western and central regions, and the overall growth rate was faster in 2014–2019. The proportion of sugarcane and cassava planting area showed a downward trend in most regions, and the sugarcane decreased significantly in the northwest and eastern regions. (3) The effect of urbanization rate on the degree of “nongrain” is positive in southern Guangxi and negative in northern Guangxi. The average annual temperature is positively correlated in the north and negatively correlated in the south. Agricultural population and average annual precipitation are positively correlated in all regions and are the most significant in the northeast and the north, respectively. The ratio of grain production to sowing and the total power of agricultural machinery are negatively correlated in most areas and are most significant in the northeast. Finally, based on the research conclusion, this study puts forward some policy suggestions for preventing “nongrain” and stabilizing grain production in China.

Joint Learning With BERT-GCN and Multi-Attention for Event Text Classification and Event Assignment

Government hotline is closely related to people’s lives and plays an important role in solving social problems and maintaining social stability in China. However, the event text of the hotline is inconsistent in length and unclear in elements, so it is a challenge for the operator to manually complete the assignment tasks of hotline event. To address these problems, we propose a joint learning method for event text classification and event assignment for Chinese government hotline. Firstly, graph convolution network (GCN) and BERT are used to process the event text respectively to obtain the corresponding representation vector. Then, the obtained two representation vectors are fused by the dynamic fusion gate to get fusion vector and classified the fusion vector through the text classification. Secondly, we use multi-attention mechanism to process the GCN result vector, BERT result vector and the “sanding” vector to obtain attentive “event-sanding” representation vector and calculate the corresponding department probability distribution. Finally, the historical prior knowledge based reorder model is used to sort the results of the “event-sanding” matching module and output the optimal assignment department of government hotline event. Experimental results show that our method can achieve better performance compared with several baseline approaches. The ablation experiments also demonstrate the validity of each proposed module in our model.

Ownership Concentration and Bank Stability in China

Ownership Concentration and Bank Stability in China

The power of family: The impact of family culture on marriage stability in China

Family culture is deeply rooted in the transformation and development of Chinese society and has a profound influence on individual behavior and family decision-making. This paper examines the impact of the family culture of China on marriage stability. By using data from the China Family Panel Studies, this paper shows that family culture is significantly positively associated with marriage stability. The estimation of the instrumental variable—the number of memorial archways ( paifang) per 100,000 persons in each province—and a series of robustness checks all support the major results. It is also found that the positive impact of family culture on marriage stability is mainly seen for people with weaker perceived importance of family well-being, for those with lower levels of education, and for individuals living in a small family. Finally, the positive effect of family culture on marriage stability is primarily observed in older generations, specifically those born before 1969.