Principles Of Risk Assessment Research Articles

44.4 THREAT BECOMING REALITY: THE PRINCIPLES OF YOUTH VIOLENCE RISK ASSESSMENT

The presentation will focus on the fundamental aspects of conducting a youth violence risk assessment. Participants will learn about the principles of youth violence risk assessment, the standardized instruments available to evaluate youth violence risk, and how to go about performing a youth violence risk assessment.

Malpractice Liability Due to Patient Violence.

In an era of mass shootings and increasing public fear, psychiatrists are more often being asked to assess whether an individual is safe to return to school or work. In addition, assessment of the individual's risk of violence is required in daily clinical decisions regarding the need for hospital care. Given the inherent difficulty in predicting violence, mental health clinicians worry about potential liability that could result from their patient committing a violent act. This article provides an overview of malpractice liability for patient violence, violence risk factors, and principles of violence risk assessment. The authors also offer some practical risk management strategies to reduce clinicians' risk of liability for violent acts by patients.

Population susceptibility: A vital consideration in chemical risk evaluation under the Lautenberg Toxic Substances Control Act.

The 2016 Frank Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act (Lautenberg TSCA) amended the 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) to mandate protection of susceptible and highly exposed populations. Program implementation entails a myriad of choices that can lead to different degrees of public health protections. Well-documented exposures to multiple industrial chemicals occur from air, soil, water, food, and products in our workplaces, schools, and homes. Many hazardous chemicals are associated with or known to cause health risks; for other industrial chemicals, no data exist to confirm their safety because of flaws in 1976 TSCA. Under the 2016 Lautenberg amendments, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must evaluate chemicals against risk-based safety standards under enforceable deadlines, with an explicit mandate to identify and assess risks to susceptible and highly exposed populations. Effective public health protection requires EPA to implement the Lautenberg TSCA requirements by incorporating intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect susceptibility, adequately assessing exposure among vulnerable groups, and accurately identifying highly exposed groups. We recommend key scientific and risk assessment principles to inform health-protective chemical policy such as consideration of aggregate exposures from all pathways and, when data are lacking, the use of health-protective defaults.

Contribution of the three-dimensional model to the reliability allocation of multiphase systems

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to deal with the allocation requirements of the dependability of the multiphase systems.Design/methodology/approachIt consists of a proposal for a combined methodology based on the simultaneous use of decomposition systems and reliability allocation method.FindingsIn the developed methodology, the authors use the principles of risk assessment and propose a new formulation of weight allowance with reference to the structural‒functional dependence.Practical implicationsThe suggested methodology provides invaluable help to implementation process analysis.Originality/valueThe adopted allocation approach is based on the use of a three-dimensional model: temporal, structural and functional decomposition of systems.

Plants Developed by New Genetic Modification Techniques-Comparison of Existing Regulatory Frameworks in the EU and Non-EU Countries.

The development of new genetic modification techniques (nGMs), also referred to as “new (breeding) techniques” in other sources, has raised worldwide discussions regarding their regulation. Different existing regulatory frameworks for genetically modified organisms (GMO) cover nGMs to varying degrees. Coverage of nGMs depends mostly on the regulatory trigger. In general two different trigger systems can be distinguished, taking into account either the process applied during development or the characteristics of the resulting product. A key question is whether regulatory frameworks either based on process- or product-oriented triggers are more advantageous for the regulation of nGM applications. We analyzed regulatory frameworks for GMO from different countries covering both trigger systems with a focus on their applicability to plants developed by various nGMs. The study is based on a literature analysis and qualitative interviews with regulatory experts and risk assessors of GMO in the respective countries. The applied principles of risk assessment are very similar in all investigated countries independent of the applied trigger for regulation. Even though the regulatory trigger is either process- or product-oriented, both triggers systems show features of the respective other in practice. In addition our analysis shows that both trigger systems have a number of generic advantages and disadvantages, but neither system can be regarded as superior at a general level. More decisive for the regulation of organisms or products, especially nGM applications, are the variable criteria and exceptions used to implement the triggers in the different regulatory frameworks. There are discussions and consultations in some countries about whether changes in legislation are necessary to establish a desired level of regulation of nGMs. We identified five strategies for countries that desire to regulate nGM applications for biosafety–ranging from applying existing biosafety frameworks without further amendments to establishing new stand-alone legislation. Due to varying degrees of nGM regulation, international harmonization will supposedly not be achieved in the near future. In the context of international trade, transparency of the regulatory status of individual nGM products is a crucial issue. We therefore propose to introduce an international public registry listing all biotechnology products commercially used in agriculture.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

Conservation translocation – an increasingly viable option for managing threatened plant species

Translocation is the establishment and augmentation of plant populations using ex situ material, and can reduce extinction risk. Historically, translocation has been considered to be high cost and high risk, but today, translocation is increasingly recognised as a necessary option for managing many threatened plant species. To examine the viability of translocation as a management action, we analysed the frequency of it being a recommended management action, its estimated cost over time, and its perceived likelihood of success as compared with other management actions. We did this using the 368 threatened plant species in the New South Wales state register of threatened species management strategies (the Saving our Species (SOS) database). Translocation was recommended as a management action for 30% of threatened plants (112 species), mostly in response to demographic threats (i.e. threats affecting species with small population sizes/restricted distributions, for example, environmental and demographic stochasticity or low genetic diversity). The estimated cost of translocation per species was similar to other common management actions. However, expert elicitation data (in the SoS database) indicated that translocation was less certain of a beneficial outcome, compared with almost all other management actions. Based on these findings, we create a decision framework, which uses the principles of extinction risk assessment to assist conservation managers in determining when translocation is most likely to be beneficial. We suggest that the use of translocation to mitigate the risk of extinction associated with small population sizes/restricted ranges is supported by the principles of extinction risk assessment. With a growing knowledge base, and costs comparable to other management actions, translocation is becoming an increasingly viable option for the conservation management of threatened plants, provided best practice guidelines are followed.

Aspects about the implementation of the occupational safety and health strategy in Romania

European directives related the occupational health and safety set out minimum requirements and fundamental principles, for managing the specific problems related to occupational risks, principle of prevention and risk assessment, as well as the responsibilities of employers and employees. A series of European guidelines aims to facilitate the implementation of European directives, including standards of related fields. The European Union Strategic Framework on Health and Safety at Work 2014 – 2020 has pushed the Member States to review their national strategies in close consultation with relevant stakeholders including the social partners. Thus, national strategies must transfer and customize the European vision to the national culture and specifics, considering the European framework that acts as a common guide and reference. Romania has adopted several versions of the National Strategy for Health and Safety at Work and the last one is related to the 2018 - 2020 period. Based on this document and the implementation plan associated the article will present a quantitative approach of the SWOT analysis. This research approach is meant to identify and characterize the new strategic direction that should be followed, together with a set of important aspect for the implementation plan up-date. The conclusions of this study will provide a scientific base for policy makers in the field of occupational health and safety.

Osteoporotic fracture risk prediction tools

The therapeutic approach of the osteoporosis aims an impact not only on the bone mineral density (BMD), but also on the fracture risk. Fracture risk is defined as a 10-year absolute risk in %. The principles for fracture risk assessment are defined. Age and BMD are initial points of its calculation. A 10-year absolute risk of fractures is assessed on the basis of a table or nomogram. Each serious risk factor such as pre-existing fracture (vertebral or hip), low body mass index (below 20 kg/m2), heredity for hip fractures, high doses of corticosteroid therapy, etc. is accompanied by a doubling of the absolute fracture risk. The process of osteoporotic fracture risk assessment involves several stages: depth anamnesis, physical examination, BMD test, X-ray analysis of vertebral fractures and laboratory tests to exclude secondary cause of osteoporosis. The obtained data can be input into each of the methods for assessing the risk of fractures. Simple screening tools for fracture prediction are OST, ORAI, OSIRIS, SCORE and age alone. Other widely used methods are FRAX®, a Garvan risk calculator and QFracture®. Diff erences in the introduced variables create significant variations in calculated risks from each calculator. The decision on the type of the risk calculator can be made on the basis of country-specific features, although it is necessary for the physician to be aware of the limitations of the chosen method. The complex infl uence on the fracture risk can be achieved through an integrated multidisciplinary approach. The aim is achievement of real outcomes in the prevention of osteoporosis before the occurrence of the first osteoporotic fracture to reduce the expansion of the disease and its negative effects.

Technical safety: use of concept risk assessment for field development certainty

As technology advances and field development possibilities grow, the need for earlier guidance on the safety performance of concept designs is greater than ever. The SNC-Lavalin concept risk assessment (CRA) tool is a transparent and rapidly deployable model that is based on sound, industry-accepted quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles. From the earliest stages of field development, when conceptualisation may be vague and data sparse, a wide range and variety of design options can still be assessed effectively and ranked on their safety performance. The CRA tool is proprietary software initially developed with BP and Shell. The model was first calibrated against 10 detailed QRAs, but is regularly benchmarked and updated with the most current failure rate data and has been used on nearly 50 projects globally. The database now incorporates established rule sets from hundreds of detailed QRAs performed, including floating liquefied natural gas and floating storage regasification units. This paper presents a CRA case study for a generic remote offshore field with a range of development options from conventional to minimal offshore facilities. The model calculates the associated risks for the options considered and is presented in terms of individual risk per annum, temporary refuge impairment frequency and potential loss of life. The results highlight the effects of each individual design feature on risk levels by comparison of similar options side by side, noting the main risk contributors and allowing investigation of the benefits of risk reduction measures. This enables identification of the best design features from each of the options and allows an optimised design to be carried forward.

A New Method Based on Field Strength for Road Infrastructure Risk Assessment

Because road infrastructures have significant impact on driving safety, their risk levels need to be evaluated dynamically according to drivers’ perception. To achieve this, this paper proposes two field strength models to quantify the impact of road infrastructures on drivers. First, road infrastructures are classified into two types (continuous and discrete). Then, two field strength models for these types are proposed. Continuous field strength model describes the impact of long-belt-shape infrastructure by differential and integral methods. Discrete field strength model describes the static and dynamic characteristics of infrastructures. This model includes four parameters: mass of vehicles, mass of infrastructures, warning level, and kinetic energy of road infrastructures. The field strength is a relative concept, which changes with vehicle state. At the end of this paper, risk assessment principles are listed to clarify the nature of road infrastructure risk evaluation. A workflow of risk assessment and a case study are presented to illustrate the application of this novel method. The result of this study shows that ① the field strength is positively related to its risk level; ② the distribution of road infrastructure risks explains driver behaviour correctly; ③ drivers tend to keep driving in low-risk area. These findings help to explain the impact mechanism of road infrastructures on drivers, which can be applied in AI-based driving assistance system in the future.

A tool to integrate scientific risk assessment principles into the management and prioritization of chemical contaminants in raw materials

A tool to integrate scientific risk assessment principles into the management and prioritization of chemical contaminants in raw materials

Medical Emergencies: Risk Assessment and Management

Dental practitioners need to have knowledge of the risk assessment, diagnosis and management of medical emergencies. This paper deals with risk assessment and basic management principles, applicable to all emergencies. More specific aspects of medical emergency management are also discussed.

Principles of risk assessment for researchers and practitioners.

Risk assessment instruments (RAIs) are generally thought to be more accurate and less susceptible to bias than the type of seat-of-the-pants risk assessment in which judges and parole boards have traditionally engaged. But RAIs bring with them their own set of controversies. This article will discuss three principles - the fit principle, the validity principle, and the fairness principle - that might govern use of RAIs. After providing examples of RAIs, it elaborates on how these principles would affect sentencing, parole and pretrial detention. In the course of doing so, this article also introduces the contributions in this Special Issue of Behavioral Sciences & the Law on "Risk factors and criminal justice."

The EPA Cancer Risk Assessment Default Model Proposal: Moving Away From the LNT.

This article strongly supports the Environmental Protection Agency proposal to make significant changes in their cancer risk assessment principles and practices by moving away from the use of the linear nonthreshold (LNT) dose–response as the default model. An alternate approach is proposed based on model uncertainty which integrates the most scientifically supportable features of the threshold, hormesis, and LNT models to identify the doses that optimize population-based responses (ie, maximize health benefits/minimize health harm). This novel approach for cancer risk assessment represents a significant improvement to the current LNT default method from scientific and public health perspectives.

Dyslipidemia.

Dyslipidemia.

Risk assessment for ballast water management — Learning from the Adriatic Sea case study

The ballast water management convention incorporates principles of risk assessment. A new ballast water management risk assessment model was developed to support the implementation of most efficient management measures, which we also present as a flowchart decision support system model. The risk assessment model was tested using data from port baseline surveys where available, and real shipping and ballast water discharges data. The here presented ballast water management risk assessment and possible management options are applicable elsewhere to support and improve complex decision making in the implementation of management requirements according to the ballast water management convention. If needed, the model may easy be adapted to address local specifics in any other region or area.

Deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on life expectancy in China, 2013

Objective: To analyze the deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on people's life expectancy in China in 2013. Methods: The mortality data from the Disease Surveillance Points System and alcohol use data from China Chronic Disease Surveillance (2013) were used. The deaths attributed to alcohol use and its impact on the life expectancy of Chinese residents were estimated based on the principle of comparative risk assessment by calculating population attributable fraction. Results: In 2013, alcohol use resulted in 381 200 deaths, including 97 100 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, 88 200 liver cancer deaths, 61 400 liver cirrhosis deaths and 48 700 esophageal cancer deaths, and prevented 76 500 deaths, including 68 500, 4 900 and 3 100 deaths which might be caused by ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke and diabetes respectively. If risk factor of alcohol use is removed, the people's life expectancy would rise by an average of 0.43 years, especially in western China by 0.52 years, which was 0.12 years higher than that in eastern and central China, and the life expectancy of the population in rural and urban areas would rise by 0.48 years and 0.31 years respectively. Conclusions: Although alcohol has a protective effect on reducing ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes deaths, alcohol use is still a risk factor influencing the mortality and life expectancy of residents in China. It is necessary to take targeted measures to reduce the health problems caused by harmful use of alcohol.

General principles of steel structures risk operation estimation and assessment of their residual life

The research of the problems of operation of complex engineering systems, buildings and structures made of steel structures is carried out. Estimation and forecasting of the residual life, analysis of the risks of further exploitation of steel structures that were damaged during operation are proposed. It is suggested to take into account the development over time of the identified and carry out the accounting of defects and damage to steel structures not identified during the technical inspection. The developed algorithm for calculating the residual life of steel structures using probabilistic or deterministic methods is proposed

Criteria System of Emergency Situations Risks Assessment in the Baltic Sea Ports

Abstract This paper reviews the principles of transportation risk assessment in the Baltic Sea ports and hinterland. The essential steps of assessment are the identification of primary criterions, the determining the underlying criterion groups and quantitative assessment of international environment indicators and nature, infrastructure indicators and organizational indicators on the basis of the multiple-criteria evaluation methods. Designed system of criteria creates a possibility for objective evaluation of risk management processes and allows planning objectively long-term risk management strategy in the ports according to certain economic development circumstances.