Principles Of Risk Assessment Research Articles

Risk to water security for small islands: an assessment framework and application

The freshwater resources of small islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and human stressors due to their limited extent and adaptive capacity. A water security approach is useful for effective management of the water resources; however, understanding risk to water security is critical in order to effectively plan and adapt to future changes. Currently available assessment tools generally do not incorporate risk and are not suitable for application on small islands, where the hydrogeological setting has unique vulnerabilities. The aim of this work is to provide a framework to characterize risk to water security for small islands. The risk assessment was developed using Andros Island, the Bahamas, as a case study area. Numerical modelling characterizes the response of the water system to potential future stressors related to climate change and human development, the results of which are integrated into the assessment framework. Based on risk assessment principles, indicators are determined for susceptibility, hazard threat, vulnerability and loss, in order to define the risk to water security. The resulting indicators are presented in geospatial maps that rank areas of risk to water security. These maps were provided to local water managers and policy-makers in the Bahamas as a tool to identify high-risk areas for near-term action and to inform long-term planning. The maps have also been used as a platform to engage local residents and raise awareness about the impact climate change and land-use activities may have on water security.

An Improved Evaluation Index System for the Host Information Security Evaluation System

This paper studies the principle of the host information security risk assessment and the method to determine the right of each index’s weight. Because Liao Hui and others proposed network terminal security assessment index system exists index weights unreasonable distribution problem, using Delphi method and AHP calculate each index weight and the weights of total ranking of lowest level indexes relative to the highest lever indexes, identified the indicators which have greatest impact to the assessment objectives and apply it to a host of information security evaluation system. Uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and combined with examples to prove the index system after improving its weight distribution can be more scientifically reflect the importance of the indexes in the evaluation system and the result of the host information security evaluation is reasonable and comprehensive.

Analysis and prevention of serious and fatal accidents related to moving parts of machinery

Machines contain hazards of different nature and exposure to those hazards can result in injuries or deaths. Safety of machinery considers the ability of a machine to perform its intended function during its life cycle where risk has been adequately reduced. The principles of machine safety, risk assessment and risk reduction are covered in international standards, national standards, regulations and other literature. Moving parts of machinery still cause many serious injuries and fatalities. This paper aims at analyzing serious injuries and fatalities related to moving parts of machinery in order to understand the various reasons causing such accidents. As such, 106 accident reports related to moving parts of machinery from the province of Quebec in Canada have been analyzed. The main causes are easy access to moving parts of machinery, lack of safeguarding, absence of lockout procedures, inexperience of workers, bypassing safeguards, lack of risk assessment, lack of supervision, poor machinery design, unsafe working methods, no clear instructions to workers on how to intervene safely on machinery as well as modifications to machinery and to control systems. Prevention strategies are also proposed based on the findings and on the literature.

The contribution of the ERA to the selection of the environmental indicators and to the allowance of the environmental objectives

Purpose – This paper is interested to assist organizations in the task of selecting and use appropriate indicators for their environmental evaluation procedure (EPE). This maximizes the successful deployment of the EPE process and as a consequence the introduction of good environmental practices. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – It consists of a proposal for a combined methodology based on the simultaneous use of environmental risk (ER) approach and RPN-based allocation method. Findings – In the developed methodology, the authors use the principles of risk assessment and purpose a new formulation of weight allowance with reference to the severity of ERs and significance of environmental aspects. Practical implications – Methodology suggested constitutes an invaluable help to implementation EPE process and as a consequence the introduction of good environmental practices. Originality/value – Methodology suggested facilitates the process of environmental performance evaluation providing substantial assistance to one of the most important stages that is to decide which particular indicators will be considered.

Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper is on the development of a generic fire risk model for single family houses as an example. The risk model considers the building characteristics of a single family house as well as the uncertainties associated with the fire spread in a building and the intervention of the fire brigade.

Development of Short-term Exposure Water Quality Standards for Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in China

Environmental pollution sudden of heavy metals has posed serious ecological risks in China. However, local short-term exposure water quality standards (WQSs) are not yet established. In the present study, aquatic ecotoxicity data of Cd2+, Cu2+, Pb2+ and Zn2+ to local species were collected and screened. The suitability of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) methods assumed to be used to derive the WQSs was evaluated by data analysis. Then, the methodology of short-term WQSs was established with the principles of SSD and ecological risk assessment, and the tiered short-term WQSs values of Cd2+, Cu2+, Pb2+ and Zn2+ were derived with the established methodology. Finally, a case analysis was performed with the developed cadmium short-term WQSs and risk grades. The results may provide technical references for response to sudden environmental pollution.

Quantitative risk assessment in the early stages of a CO2 geological storage project: implementation of a practical approach in an uncertain context

AbstractMethodologies for quantitative risk assessment regarding CO2 storage operations are currently scarce, mostly because of the lack of experience in this field and the relatively significant degree of uncertainty regarding the subsurface intrinsic properties and the processes occurring after the injection starts. This paper presents a practical approach designed to perform a quantitative risk assessment in an uncertain context. Our approach is illustrated by a realistic case study (Paris Basin, France), conceived to be representative of the level of information available in the early stages of a project. It follows the risk assessment principles from the international standards (ISO 31000:2009), which are adapted to account for the specificities and challenges of subsurface operations. After the establishment of the context of the specific case study, the main risks are identified and we analyze two different risk scenarios: risk of brine leakage from an abandoned well and risk of subsurface use conflict.These scenarios were selected to give a comprehensive overview of different types of analysis in terms of available data, modeling tools and uncertainty management methodologies. The main benefit of this paper is to propose an approach, based on existing risk assessment standards, best practices, and analysis tools, which allows an objective quantitative risk analysis taking into account the uncertainties, and therefore enabling fully informed decision‐making while evaluating risk acceptability.

European Union policy on pesticides: implications for agriculture in Ireland.

European Community (EC) legislation has limited the availability of pesticide active substances used in effective plant protection products. The Pesticide Authorisation Directive 91/414/EEC introduced the principle of risk assessment for approval of pesticide active substances. This principle was modified by the introduction of Regulation (EC) 1107/2009, which applies hazard, the intrinsic toxicity of the active substance, rather than risk, the potential for hazard to occur, as the approval criterion. Potential impacts of EC pesticide legislation on agriculture in Ireland are summarised. While these will significantly impact on pesticide availability in the medium to long term, regulations associated with water quality (Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC and Drinking Water Directive 1998/83/EC) have the potential to restrict pesticide use more immediately, as concerns regarding public health and economic costs associated with removing pesticides from water increase. This rationale will further reduce the availability of effective pesticide active substances, directly affecting crop protection and increasing pesticide resistance within pest and disease populations. In addition, water quality requirements may also impact on important active substances used in plant protection in Ireland. The future challenge for agriculture in Ireland is to sustain production and profitability using reduced pesticide inputs within a framework of integrated pest management.

Plant miRNAome and antiviral resistance: a retrospective view and prospective challenges

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small regulatory RNAs that play a defining role in post-transcriptional gene silencing of eukaryotes by either mRNA cleavage or translational inhibition. Plant miRNAs have been implicated in innumerable growth and developmental processes that extend beyond their ability to respond to biotic and abiotic stresses. Active in an organism's immune defence response, host miRNAs display a propensity to target viral genomes. During viral invasion, these virus-targeting miRNAs can be identified by their altered expression. All the while, pathogenic viruses, as a result of their long-term interaction with plants, have been evolving viral suppressors of RNA silencing (VSRs), as well as viral-encoded miRNAs as a counter-defence strategy. However, the gene silencing attribute of miRNAs has been ingeniously manipulated to down-regulate the expression of any gene of interest, including VSRs, in artificial miRNA (amiRNA)-based transgenics. Since we currently have a better understanding of the intricacies of miRNA-mediated gene regulation in plant-virus interactions, the majority of miRNAs manipulated to confer antiviral resistance to date are in plants. This review will share the insights gained from the studies of plant-virus combat and from the endeavour to manipulate miRNAs, including prospective challenges in the context of the evolutionary dynamics of the viral genome. Next generation sequencing technologies and bioinformatics analysis will further delineate the molecular details of host-virus interactions. The need for appropriate environmental risk assessment principles specific to amiRNA-based virus resistance is also discussed.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF AQUATIC SYSTEMS AFFECTED BY PESTICIDE USE

Ecological risk assessment is a process evaluating the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more substances. Relevant information needed to predict risks from pesticides includes their physical chemical properties, mobility in soil, persistence in the environment, and bioaccumulation and toxicity in relevant organisms. Although currently a requirement for pesticide registration in Brazil, this process is not yet fully implemented in the country. This review aims to outline the principles of environmental risk assessment for pesticides, focusing on aquatic organisms, and to discuss the studies and efforts conducted in Brazil in this area.

Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

The Design of Information System Vulnerability Management Software Based on CVSS

The purpose of information system vulnerability analysis is to find loophole and to prevent endangering the information system security. Based on principles of information security risk assessment and Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), this paper presents a system model for information system vulnerability management. The function models are analyzed respectively; the technology features are also summarized in this paper.

Open letter to the European commission: scientifically unfounded precaution drives European commission’s recommendations on EDC regulation, while defying common sense, well-established science, and risk assessment principles

We, the undersigned editors of journals of pharmacology and toxicology, are drawing your attention to the imminent decisions by the European Commission to enforce a regulatory framework for so-called endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs).1 The currently drafted framework is based on virtually complete ignorance of all well-established and taught principles of pharmacology and toxicology, of opinions raised by the European Commission’s own competent expert authority (European Food Safety Authority (EFSA 2013), and of critical statements made by member countries, while avoiding asking for support from the European Commission’s own scientific expert committees.

Science and policy on endocrine disrupters must not be mixed: a reply to a “common sense” intervention by toxicology journal editors

The “common sense” intervention by toxicology journal editors regarding proposed European Union endocrine disrupter regulations ignores scientific evidence and well-established principles of chemical risk assessment. In this commentary, endocrine disrupter experts express their concerns about a recently published, and is in our considered opinion inaccurate and factually incorrect, editorial that has appeared in several journals in toxicology. Some of the shortcomings of the editorial are discussed in detail. We call for a better founded scientific debate which may help to overcome a polarisation of views detrimental to reaching a consensus about scientific foundations for endocrine disrupter regulation in the EU.

Towards a disaster risk assessment methodology for communities underlain by dolomite

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to provide a robust and simple methodology for disaster risk management officials to assess the total disaster risk posed by dolomite in urban areas of South Africa. Design/methodology/approach – In order to develop the methodology the basic principles of disaster risk assessment, incapsulated in the notation R=H×V, was applied to provide a vehicle to quantify hazard and vulnerability aspects related to dolomite risk. Specifically existing knowledge on inherent dolomite risk classes (hazard component) was aligned to issues of vulnerability (in this case ageing water infrastructure) to attain a total dolomite disaster risk score for a specific area. Findings – The results from the practical application of the method indicated that the proposed dolomite risk assessment methodology is not only robust but easy to comprehend and to apply. The simplicity of the method also allows for easy integration into existing urban planning and integrated development planning process. Originality/value – The creation of the method not only provides a much-needed tool for assessing the total disaster risk posed by dolomite in urban areas but also adds value to the entire urban and community development process.

Assessing environmental sustainability in tourism and recreation areas: a risk-assessment-based model

This paper presents a three-stage model that applies the principles of risk assessment to the evaluation of environmental sustainability in the tourism and recreation sectors. The model uses both qualitative and quantitative data. While assessing environmental risk at and from tourism and recreation areas is fundamental to sustainable management, existing methodologies rely on sets of environmental data that are often poorly linked and difficult to interpret in a holistic manner. Risk assessment is a concept that can overcome current limitations in environmental assessment methodologies. This model demonstrates its utility by assessing the environmental sustainability of two tourism and recreation sites in Ireland, with 25 environmental hazards identified at the rural Lough Derg (Shannon River) site and 29 at the relatively urban Dublin Bay site. The results show that the practical production of holistic and representative data on environmental risk from tourism and recreation areas is possible, with water quality, amenity value, traffic and transport, boating activity and noise found particularly relevant. The strengths and limitations of the proposed model are considered and compared with three existing tourism impact models: the use of sustainability indicators and two tourism-planning frameworks, limits of acceptable change (LAC) and visitor impact management (VIM).

Risk assessment principles in evaluation of animal welfare

AbstractScience forms a vital part of animal welfare assessment. However, many animal welfare issues are more influenced by public perception and political pressure than they are by science. The discipline of epidemiology has had an important role to play in examining the effects that management, environment and infrastructure have on animal-based measures of welfare. Standard multifactorial analyses have been used to investigate the effects of these various inputs on outcomes such as lameness. Such research has thereby established estimates of the probability of occurrence of these adverse welfare outcomes (AWOs) and given exposure to particular management inputs (welfare challenges). Welfare science has established various measures of the consequences of challenges to welfare. In this paper, a method is proposed for comparing the likely impact of different welfare challenges, incorporating both the probability of AWOs resulting from that welfare challenge, and their impacts or consequences if they do, using risk assessment principles. The rationale of this framework is explained. Its scope lies within a science-based risk assessment framework. This method does not provide objective measures or score of welfare without some context of comparison and does not provide new welfare measures but only provides a framework enabling objective comparison. Possible applications of this method include comparing the effects of specific management inputs, assigning priority to welfare challenges in order to inform allocation of resources for addressing those challenges, and comparisons of the lifetime welfare effects of management inputs or systems. The use of risk assessment methods in the animal welfare field can facilitate objective comparisons of situations that are currently assessed with some level of subjectivity. This methodology will require significant validation to determine its most productive use. The risk assessment approach could have a productive role in advancing quantitative assessment in animal welfare science.

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Principles for the risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms and their food products in the European Union

Genetically modified microorganisms (GMMs) are involved in the production of a variety of food and feed. The release and consumption of these products can raise questions about health and environmental safety. Therefore, the European Union has different legislative instruments in place in order to ensure the safety of such products. A key requirement is to conduct a scientific risk assessment as a prerequisite for the product to be placed on the market. This risk assessment is performed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), through its Scientific Panels. The EFSA Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms has published complete and comprehensive guidance for the risk assessment of GMMs and their products for food and/or feed use, in which the strategy and the criteria to conduct the assessment are explained, as well as the scientific data to be provided in applications for regulated products. This Guidance follows the main risk assessment principles developed by various international organisations (Codex Alimentarius, 2003; OECD, 2010). The assessment considers two aspects: the characterisation of the GMM and the possible effects of its modification with respect to safety, and the safety of the product itself. Due to the existing diversity of GMMs and their products, a categorisation is recommended to optimise the assessment and to determine the extent of the required data. The assessment starts with a comprehensive characterisation of the GMM, covering the recipient/parental organism, the donor(s) of the genetic material, the genetic modification, and the final GMM and its phenotype. Evaluation of the composition, potential toxicity and/or allergenicity, nutritional value and environmental impact of the product constitute further cornerstones of the process. The outcome of the assessment is reflected in a scientific opinion which indicates whether the product raises any safety issues. This opinion is taken into account by the different European regulatory authorities prior to a decision regarding authorisation to commercialise the product.

Scientifically unfounded precaution drives European Commission's recommendations on EDC regulation, while defying common sense, well-established science and risk assessment principles

Scientifically unfounded precaution drives European Commission's recommendations on EDC regulation, while defying common sense, well-established science and risk assessment principles