Probabilistic Hazard Analysis Research Articles

Seismic analysis of bridge with buckling‐restrained brace posttensioned concrete pier

AbstractA two‐span bridge built with a two‐column pier consisting of unbonded posttensioned precast concrete columns and a buckling‐restrained brace (BRB) is analyzed using a three‐dimensional nonlinear numerical model. Seismic damage to the pier is eliminated through rocking of the posttensioned columns and seismic energy dissipation by the BRB. The numerical model is calibrated with experimental results of posttensioned columns and BRB structural elements. Seismic assessment of the bridge pier is performed using the ratio of BRB axial force to base shear as the parameter of interest. Limits for the seismic performance of the bridge pier are established by means of nonlinear static analysis using OpenSees. Bidirectional ground motions are used to perform probabilistic hazard analysis through nonlinear time history simulations. Three damage limit states are defined in this research: the activation point of posttensioning bars, the maximum base shear capacity or onset of concrete spalling, and collapse defined as the state at 20% loss of maximum base shear capacity. The analysis results are formulated into fragility curves for the three damage states as well as the residual drift. The fragility curves could be used for preliminary seismic bridge design. The analysis shows that the BRB dissipates significant seismic energy and the posttensioned concrete columns reduce residual displacements so that the bridge pier can remain functional after severe earthquakes. The fragility approach for designing bridge piers constructed with posttensioned concrete columns and BRB elements is a significant improvement over conventional seismic bridge design and can contribute to functional recovery after severe earthquakes.

Integrated seismic vulnerability assessment for heritage educational buildings in Annaba city: combining probabilistic hazard analysis and structural modeling

PurposeThe primary goal of this research is to evaluate the seismic performance of Asla Hocine Primary School, a heritage school building in Annaba, Algeria, to prevent additional damage during future earthquakes in the region. The study aims to guide decision-makers in strengthening weak parts or elements in the building, implementing preventive measures and ultimately reducing earthquake disaster risk by mitigating vulnerability.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs the 3Muri software to model the seismic behavior and structural failures of the school’s elements. An integrated multimodal pushover analysis is used to generate the non-linear capacity curve of the school to assess its seismic performance. The seismic demand is determined based on Algerian seismic regulations, with peak ground acceleration derived from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Annaba city for return periods of 100, 200 and 500 years. The study develops three seismic scenarios to evaluate performance levels and expected damage probabilities.FindingsThe study reveals that the Asla Hocine Primary School faces a high risk of damage and potential collapse under the expected seismic hazard of the region. The analysis indicates variable resilience across different seismic return periods (100, 200 and 500 years), with the performance level degrading from life safety to collapse prevention and total collapse under increasing seismic intensity. This underscores the need for targeted structural analysis and potential retrofitting to enhance the building’s seismic robustness.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper encouraged to account for soil-structure interaction in similar studies, as it can significantly affect the overall seismic performance of buildings. Furthermore, conducting out-of-plane analysis when necessary can offer valuable insights into the structural behavior of specific components.Practical implicationsThe insights provided by this study contribute vital data toward conservation efforts and risk mitigation strategies for heritage structures in seismic zones. The findings are intended to guide decision-makers in implementing preventive measures and strengthening weak parts or elements in the studied school building, ultimately reducing earthquake disaster risk by mitigating vulnerability.Originality/valueThis research offers a comprehensive framework for assessing the seismic vulnerability of heritage schools using detailed modeling and analysis. It highlights the importance of considering return periods of seismic events in assessing a building’s seismic performance and provides a deeper understanding of the structural response to seismic stresses at both macrostructural and individual element levels. The study emphasizes the critical need for seismic risk assessment and targeted retrofitting to preserve cultural heritage assets and ensure their continued use.

Probabilistic hazard analyses for a small island: methods for quantifying tephra fall hazard and appraising possible impacts on Ascension Island

Proximal to the source, tephra fall can cause severe disruption, and populations of small volcanically active islands can be particularly susceptible. Volcanic hazard assessments draw on data from past events generated from historical observations and the geological record. However, on small volcanic islands, many eruptive deposits are under-represented or missing due to the bulk of tephra being deposited offshore and high erosion rates from weather and landslides. Ascension Island is such an island located in the South Atlantic, with geological evidence of mafic and felsic explosive volcanism. Limited tephra preservation makes it difficult to correlate explosive eruption deposits and constrains the frequency or magnitude of past eruptions. We therefore combined knowledge from the geological record together with eruptions from the analogous São Miguel island, Azores, to probabilistically model a range of possible future explosive eruption scenarios. We simulated felsic events from a single vent in the east of the island, and, as mafic volcanism has largely occurred from monogenetic vents, we accounted for uncertainty in future vent location by using a grid of equally probable source locations within the areas of most recent eruptive activity. We investigated the hazards and some potential impacts of short-lived explosive events where tephra fall deposits could cause significant damage and our results provide probabilities of tephra fall loads from modelled events exceeding threshold values for potential damage. For basaltic events with 6–10 km plume heights, we found a 50% probability that tephra fallout across the west side of the island would impact roads and the airport during a single explosive event, and if roofs cannot be cleared, three modelled explosive phases produced tephra loads that may be sufficient to cause roof collapse (≥ 100 kg m−2). For trachytic events, our results show a 50% probability of loads of 2–12 kg m−2 for a plume height of 6 km increasing to 898–3167 kg m−2 for a plume height of 19 km. Our results can assist in raising awareness of the potential impacts of tephra fall from short-lived explosive events on small islands.

A KDE-based non-parametric cloud approach for efficient seismic fragility estimation of structures under non-stationary excitation

With the development of performance-based earthquake engineering, the risk-informed assessment framework has received broad recognition over the world, of which the probability seismic fragility analysis is an important step. The classic seismic fragility adopts the lognormal assumption and forms a parametric derivation. With the development of fragility theory, researchers are hoping to seek out non-parametric approaches to express the intrinsic fragility in a pure analytical form without any distribution assumptions. Besides, how to keep the calculation efficiency (e.g., combining with cloud approach) and how to consider the non-stationary stochastic responses (e.g., combining with non-stationary stochastic excitation model) are critical aspects in fragility that deserve further attention of researchers. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based non-parametric cloud approach is proposed for efficient seismic fragility estimation of structures under non-stationary excitation. First, the methodology framework of the efficient approach is illustrated. Then, the procedures of non-stationary stochastic seismic response of structures and KDE-based non-parametric cloud approach for efficient seismic fragility are demonstrated. After that, an application example via a three-span-six-story reinforced concrete frame is given for implementation, followed with a parametric analysis of critical factors. During the process, the classic parametric linear-regression based cloud approach (cloud-LR) and benchmark Monte-Carlo-simulation based cloud approach (cloud-MCS) are also incorporated for validation. In general, the analysis verifies the effectiveness of the non-parametric cloud-KDE approach without requiring more computation work (i.e., same as the parametric cloud-LR approach and much less than the benchmark cloud-MCS approach). Meanwhile, the non-parametric cloud-KDE approach indicates a comparable accuracy with the classic fragility approaches (i.e., less deviation than the parametric cloud-LR approach and much closer to the benchmark cloud-MCS approach), and with the increase of stochastic cloud-point number, the corresponding fitting degree of cloud-KDE approach is growing better. The research provides a new sight for the development of non-parametric seismic fragility approach, and the corresponding findings can be further combined with the probabilistic hazard and risk analysis for a non-parametric assessment procedure in performance-based earthquake engineering.

Seismic Load Design of Rukoh Dam Suppletion Tunnel in Pidie Regency, Aceh, Indonesia, Based on Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses

The Rukoh Dam suppletion tunnel construction site in Pidie Regency, Aceh province, is located 5.6 kilometers from the Seulimeum-South segment of the active Sumatran fault. The active fault features a strike-slip fault mechanism with a slip rate of 7.0 millimeters per year and a maximum earthquake-recorded magnitude of 6.9 Mw. Considering that the construction site is located less than 10 kilometers from the active fault, which may cause earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 6 Mw, the SNI 1729:2019, which describes the procedures for planning earthquake resistance for buildings and non-building structures, requires the seismic load to be designed based on the site-specific responses analysis. Determination of the seismic load using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis was the objective of this study. The seismic load based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional (PusGen) in 2017 is also compared. The 2017 Indonesian Earthquake Source and Hazard Map were used to find out about the fault mechanism, slip rate, deterministic magnitude, orientation, and coordinates of traces. The deterministic seismic hazard analysis was conducted using EZ-FRISK 8.07 software and attenuation equations with shallow crustal earthquake sources for fault and shallow background earthquake sources, i.e., the Boore-Atkinson NGA 2014, the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA 2014, and the Chiou-Youngs NGA 2014 equations. The deterministic analysis based on those attenuation equations predicted the active fault to result in a peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.66 g at the construction site of the Rukoh Dam suppletion tunnel. In comparison, the probabilistic hazard analysis conducted by Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional (PusGen) in 2017 indicated a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.537 g. Therefore, the seismic load is recommended for the structural designs of the embankment dam and the other infrastructures, particularly the suppletion tunnel.

Probabilistic hazard analysis of rainfall-induced landslides at a specific slope considering rainfall uncertainty and soil spatial variability

A key index for assessing landslide risk quantitatively is annual slope failure probability, PFA, induced by rainfalls at a specific slope. Although PFA is expected to be significantly influenced by both spatial variability of soil properties and rainfall uncertainty, previous studies seldom estimate PFA with simultaneous consideration of both soil spatial variability and rainfall uncertainty. Most previous studies focused on the effect of soil spatial variability and ignored rainfall uncertainty, and the estimated slope failure probability is not associated with a reference time period (e.g., a year for PFA). This study aims to assess PFA considering both soil spatial variability and rainfall uncertainty by developing a fully Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-based method. To bypass the high-dimensional integration in estimation of PFA and high computational costs of MCS, a semi-analytical method is further developed for enhancing computational efficiency in estimating a small failure probability. Results show that the semi-analytical and fully MCS-based methods produce consistent PFA. Using the proposed semi-analytical method, a small number (e.g., 30) of random samples is sufficient for estimating a small failure probability (e.g., 10−4) accurately. When the variability of soil properties is negligible, PFA is dominated by rainfall uncertainty and converges to a constant failure probability.

Assessing probability of building damages due to tsunami hazards coupled with characteristics of buildings in Banda Aceh, Indonesia: A way to increase understanding of tsunami risks

Knowing the potential number of buildings that could be damaged by a future tsunami is important in understanding tsunami risk. There is a limited number of studies that combine the tsunami inundation area that is generated based on probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and tsunami fragility curves. This study is aimed at providing information on probabilistic tsunami hazard for the city of Banda Aceh (Indonesia), whereby the results could possibly be integrated into tsunami risk reduction in the city. A series of numerical simulations were performed using the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT). Tsunami sources were taken from rupture areas generated by a set of earthquakes emanating from the Aceh-Andaman Megathrust segment. Later, tsunami inundation areas that were produced from numerical simulations were used in a probabilistic hazard analysis. This research produced three sets of tsunami inundation maps for 250-, 500-, and 1000-year return event periods. Hazard curves were produced based on 230,000 grids. Field surveys were performed in order to assess over 82,000 building units in Banda Aceh, and classified them into six types of buildings, in accordance with HAZUS (Hazards United States). Based on two sets data of buildings in Banda Aceh (measured in 2017 and 2021), there has been an increased number of buildings in the city by around 31%. Most of the new buildings were identified as houses. A set of tsunami fragility curves was used to estimate the damage ratio of each of the buildings. It was found that around 10.5% of the buildings (8708 units of buildings) would likely be totally demolished (swept away), should a 1000-year return period tsunami occur. Inundation maps produced for the 1000-year return period tsunami found in this study portray a similar situation to that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Assessment of various seismic fragility analysis approaches for structures excited by non-stationary stochastic ground motions

A probabilistic assessment is performed using different seismic fragility analysis approaches for structures under non-stationary stochastic ground motions. Four commonly used probabilistic seismic fragility analysis (PSFA) approaches are adopted, which are least squares regression (LSR), maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), kernel density estimation (KDE) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The principles of the four PSFA approaches are first introduced, and the theories of non-stationary stochastic acceleration time series are introduced in light of the spectral representation of random functions. Then an analytical procedure of different PSFA approaches is constructed for structures under non-stationary stochastic motions. After that a case study is carried out to analyze the results of the four PSFA approaches. The demand distributions of univariate random variable under certain intensity measure levels are discussed, and multiple fragility curves under different limit states for all the approaches are compared. In general, the MCS approach is set as the benchmark to verify the effectiveness of other approaches, but it is computationally consuming. The non-parametric KDE approach is recommended to estimate the univariate distribution under specified IM levels, because it can reflect the real distribution characteristics with combined efficiency and accuracy. For the seismic fragility under different limit states, the LSR approach is suitable for efficient data processing and general trend assessment, at the expense of accuracy. The MLE approach indicates a better applicability under a smaller response threshold and slighter damage conditions, while the KDE approach shows a better applicability under a larger response threshold and severer damage conditions. The paper compares the accuracy and applicability of various PSFA approaches under multiple conditions, and provides a basis to link probabilistic hazard and risk analyses for performance assessment in the future research.

Research on b Value Estimation Based on Apparent Amplitude-Frequency Distribution in Rock Acoustic Emission Tests

The rock acoustic emission (AE) technique has often been used to study rock destruction properties and has also been considered an important measure for simulating earthquake foreshock sequences. Among them, the AE b value is an essential parameter for the size distribution characteristics and probabilistic hazard analysis of rock fractures. Variations in b values obtained in rock AE tests and earthquakes are often compared to establish analogies in the damage process and precursory analysis. Nevertheless, because the amplitudes measured on the sample boundary by an acoustic sensor (apparent amplitude) are often used to estimate the b value, which cannot descript the source size distribution, it is necessary to develop a method to obtain the size distribution characteristics of the real source from the apparent amplitude in doubly truncated distribution. In this study, we obtain AE apparent amplitudes by applying an attenuation operator to source amplitudes generated by a computer with an underlying exponential distribution and then use these simulated apparent amplitudes to perform a comparative analysis of various b value estimation methods that are used in earthquakes and propose an optimal b value estimation procedure for rock AE tests through apparent amplitudes. To further verify the reliability of the newly proposed procedure, a b value characteristics analysis was carried out on a non-explosive expansion agent rock AE test and transparent refractive index experiment with red sandstone, marble, granite, and limestone. The results indicate that mineral grains of different sizes and compositions and different types of discontinuities of rock specimens determine the rock fracture characteristics, as well as the b value. The dynamic b values decreased linearly during the loading process, which confirms that variations in the b value also depend on the stress. These results indicate that the newly proposed procedure for estimating the b value in rock AE tests based on apparent amplitudes has high reliability.

A sensitivity study of rising compound coastal inundation over large flood plains in a changing climate

Coastal flood hazards and damage to coastal communities are increasing steeply and nonlinearly due to the compound impact of intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) and accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). We expand the probabilistic coastal flood hazard analysis framework to facilitate coastal adaptation by simulating the compound impact of predicted intensifying TCs and rising sea levels in the twenty-first century. We compared the characteristics of landfalling TCs in Florida (FL) and southwest Florida (SWFL) for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries predicted by several climate models and downscaling models. TCs predicted by four climate models, one without downscaling and three with downscaling, were used by a coupled surge-wave model to predict the future flood hazard due to compound effects of TCs and SLR over a large SWFL coastal flood plain. By 2100, the coastal inundation metrics of the 1% annual chance coastal flood could become almost 3–7 folds of their current values, depending on the climate and downscaling models, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation phases, TCs, SLR, precipitation, and how TCs and SLR are incorporated. By 2100, the current 1% (100-year) inundation event could become a 3-year event, and the 0.2% (500-year) inundation event could become a 5-year event.

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment of weir structures considering the earthquake hazard in the Korean Peninsula

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

Probabilistic assessment of seismic-induced slope displacements: an application in Italy

Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the most important hazards related to ground shaking, causing damages to the environment and, often, casualties. Therefore, it is important to assess the seismic performance of slopes, especially in the near fault regions, evaluating the permanent displacements induced by seismic loading. This paper applies a probabilistic approach to evaluate the seismic performance of slopes using an updated database of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Italy. The main advantage of this approach is that of accounting for the aleatory variability of both ground motions and prediction of seismic-induced displacements of slopes. The results are presented in terms of hazard curves, showing the annual rate of exceedance of permanent slope displacement evaluated using ground motion data provided by a standard probabilistic hazard analysis and a series of semi-empirical relationships linking the permanent displacements of slopes to one or more ground motion parameters. The procedure has been implemented on a regional scale to produce seismic landslide hazard maps for the Irpinia district, in Southern Italy, characterised by a severe seismic hazard. Seismic landslide hazard maps represent a useful tool for practitioners and government agencies for a regional planning to identify and monitor zones that are potentially susceptible to earthquake-induced slope instability, thus requiring further detailed, site-specific studies.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

Analysis of Hazards for Autonomous Driving

Abstract Hazard analysis is the core of numerous approaches to safety engineering, including the functional safety standard ISO-26262 (FuSa) and Safety of the Intended Function (SOTIF) ISO/PAS 21448. We focus on addressing the immense challenge associated with the scope of training and testing for rare hazard for autonomous drivers, leading to the need to train and test on the equivalent of >108 naturalistic miles. We show how risk can be estimated and bounded using the probabilistic hazard analysis. We illustrate the definition of hazards using well-established tests for hazard identification. We introduce a dynamic hazard approach, whereby autonomous drivers continuously monitor for potential and developing hazard, and estimate their time to materialization (TTM). We describe systematic TTM modeling of the various hazard types, including environment-specific perception limitations. Finally, we show how to enable accelerated development and testing by training a neural network sampler to generate scenarios in which the frequency of rare hazards is increased by orders of magnitude.

Risk estimation of the disaster waste generated by both ground motion and tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

AbstractThe amount of disaster waste is one of the most important performance indicators in quantifying the resilience of a community. In fact, disaster waste can have significant negative impacts on the environment in affected regions and hinder the postdisaster recovery process. Appropriate disaster waste management should be developed in Japan before the occurrence of the Nankai Trough earthquake. It is expected that the seismic and tsunami intensities caused by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake will be substantially larger than those caused by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. In this paper, a risk‐based methodology is presented for estimating the amount of disaster waste generated by both the ground motions and the tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. First, Monte Carlo simulation‐based probabilistic hazard analyses are performed to obtain seismic and tsunami hazard curves considering the uncertainty associated with fault movement along the Nankai Trough. Structural damage data associated with past earthquakes are used to develop seismic and tsunami fragility curves. The amount of disaster waste generated from a single structure is defined as the generation unit and is determined based on past disasters. Finally, with the aid of a geographic information system, the risk of disaster waste can be estimated using the hazard and fragility curves and the generation units. As an illustrative example, the risk curves and expected values associated with disaster waste in Mie Prefecture, Japan, are estimated based on the proposed framework.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Inundated Buildings Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

Introduction and Application of a Simple Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis Program: HAZ45PL Module

The 2016 Meinong Earthquake hit southern Taiwan and many shallow foundation structures were damaged due to soil liquefaction. In response, the government initiated an investigation project to construct liquefaction potential maps for metropolitans in Taiwan. These maps were used for the preliminary safety assessment of infrastructures or buildings. However, the constructed liquefaction potential map used the pseudo-probabilistic approach, which has inconsistent return period. To solve the inconsistency, the probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis (PLHA) was introduced. However, due to its complicated calculation procedure, PLHA is not easy and convenient for engineers to use without a specialized program, such as in Taiwan. Therefore, PLHA is not a popular liquefaction evaluation procedure in practice. This study presents a simple PLHA program, HAZ45PL Module, customized for Taiwan. Sites in Tainan City and Yuanlin City are evaluated using the HAZ45PL Module to obtain the hazard curve and to construct the liquefaction probability map. The liquefaction probability map provides probabilities of different liquefaction potential levels for engineers or owners to assess the performance of an infrastructure or to design a mitigation plan.

Seismic fragility analysis of wood frame building in hilly region

A comprehensive study on seismic performance of wood frame building in hilly regions is presented. Specifically, seismic fragility assessment of a typical wood frame building at various locations of the northeast region of India are demonstrated. A three-dimensional simplified model of the wood frame building is developed with due consideration to nonlinear behaviour of shear walls under lateral loads. In doing so, a trilinear model having improved capability to capture the force-deformation behaviour of shear walls including the strength degradation at higher deformations is proposed. The improved capability of the proposed model to capture the force-deformation behaviour of shear wall is validated by comparing with the existing experimental results. The structural demand values are obtained from nonlinear time history analysis (NLTHA) of the three-dimensional wood frame model considering the effect of uncertainty due to record to record variation of ground motions and structural parameters as well. The ground motion bins necessary for NLTHA are prepared based on the identified hazard level from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the considered locations. The maximum likelihood estimates of the lognormal fragility parameters are obtained from the observed failure cases and the seismic fragilities corresponding to different locations are estimated accordingly. The results of the numerical study show that the wood frame constructions commonly found in the region are likely to suffer minor cracking or damage in the shear walls under the earthquake occurrence corresponding to the estimated seismic hazard level; however, poses negligible risk against complete collapse of such structures.

Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures.

Statistical emulators are a key tool for rapidly producing probabilistic hazard analysis of geophysical processes. Given output data computed for a relatively small number of parameter inputs, an emulator interpolates the data, providing the expected value of the output at untried inputs and an estimate of error at that point. In this work, we propose to fit Gaussian Process emulators to the output from a volcanic ash transport model, Ash3d. Our goal is to predict the simulated volcanic ash thickness from Ash3d at a location of interest using the emulator. Our approach is motivated by two challenges to fitting emulators—characterizing the input wind field and interactions between that wind field and variable grain sizes. We resolve these challenges by using physical knowledge on tephra dispersal. We propose new physically motivated variables as inputs and use normalized output as the response for fitting the emulator. Subsetting based on the initial conditions is also critical in our emulator construction. Simulation studies characterize the accuracy and efficiency of our emulator construction and also reveal its current limitations. Our work represents the first emulator construction for volcanic ash transport models with considerations of the simulated physical process.

Determination of a unique aftershock spectra

Aftershock seismic hazard analysis depends on both mainshock magnitude and elapsed time after the main earthquake. Aftershocks can result in an increment in the seismic demand of the structures. The objective of the current study is to determine a final aftershock spectrum as an applicable outcome in seismic design and assessment of buildings. As a numerical example, aftershock probabilistic hazard analysis (APSHA) was calculated at a location in southern California. The proposed method was applied for four different periods. Furthermore, a three-story existing concrete building was selected and analyzed regarding aftershock spectrum. It was shown that the amount of spectrum follows an upward trend by increasing the amount of main shock magnitude. The second finding was that the spectral value decreases with growth in elapsed time after the mainshock. While both beams and columns did not have enough strength, by applying aftershock to the building, 20% of the columns were required to be retrofitted again, and the figure for strengthened column experienced a rise of about 38%. However, the number of retrofitted beams did not change considerably.