Abstract
A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.
Highlights
Tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic eruptions represent only a few of all recorded tsunamis, which are more commonly generated by earthquakes or landslides [1]
We focused only on tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions in Taal Lake in the southern basin, while an explosion in the northern basin would generates different patterns of wave heights at the coast, which would be recommended for inclusion in future work
Eruptions have occurred on the central island, such as the 1749, 1754, 1911 and 1965 eruptions, while the 1716 eruption was a subaqueous volcanic explosion
Summary
Tsunamis generated by subaqueous volcanic eruptions represent only a few of all recorded tsunamis, which are more commonly generated by earthquakes or landslides [1]. The eruption vent was located north of Taal Island, and the wave impacted the northern shores of the lake. In 2020, the Taal volcano erupted on January 12, and the eruption occurred in the main crater, with a lava fountain height of 500 m [7]. Ash from this eruption spread around the volcano, reaching distances of approximately 10–15 km, but there were no reports of a tsunami in Taal Lake during this event. We aim to determine the probability that tsunami hazards will impact urbanizing areas in response to subaqueous volcanic explosions in Taal Lake for stakeholders and policymakers
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