Abstract
Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
Highlights
Tsunamis are rare but potentially devastating natural hazards
PTHA are becoming a standard basis for tsunami risk assessment around the world
When the PTHA results are available in the form of stochastic event sets, a fully probabilistic tsunami risk assessment (PTRA) can be performed (Ordaz, 2000; Strunz et al, 2011; Salgado-Gálvez et al, 2014), these types of analyses usually demand an extensive computational effort (e.g., Løvholt et al, 2015a; Jaimes et al, 2016; Goda and Song, 2019; Ordaz et al, 2019)
Summary
Tsunamis are rare but potentially devastating natural hazards. With often limited available data, a coherent framework that incorporates data, physical assumptions (i.e., the general model of the system), and statistical methods for hazard and risk analysis is necessary to assess consequences affecting different layers of societies. Probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analyses (PTHA and PTRA, respectively) offer structured and rigorous procedures that allow for tracing and weighting the key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard and risk in globally distributed applications (e.g., Basili et al, 2021). PTHA are becoming a standard basis for tsunami risk assessment around the world. Significant challenges in this analysis method are 1) the choice of hypothetical events and assigning “correct” probabilities, and ii) the impact of source regions distributed throughout an ocean basin and, conceivably, unifying distinct types of sources in a homogeneous probabilistic framework with a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. PTRA are still less abundant and standardized than PTHA, as elaborated in this review
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