Seismic probabilistic risk assessment of weir structures considering the earthquake hazard in the Korean Peninsula

<p>Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted</p>

Seismic risk assessment of cold-formed steel shear wall systems

A better seismic design for building and other structures is the most effective way to reduce seismic risk and avoid earthquake disaster. Adoption and implementation of new seismic safety regulations and design standards have caused serious problems in many communities in the New Madrid region, including western Kentucky, however. The main reasons for these problems are (1) misunderstanding of the national seismic hazard maps and (2) confusion between seismic hazard and seismic risk. Both are caused by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). PSHA is a mathematical formulation derived from a probability analysis on the distribution of earthquake magnitudes, locations, and ground-motion attenuation. Some assumptions and distributions associated with PSHA have been found to be invalid in earth science, however. In addition, PSHA contains a mathematical error: equating a dimensionless quantity (the annual probability of exceedance – exceedance probability in one year) to a dimensional quantity (the annual frequency of exceedance with the unit of per year [1/yr]). Thus, PSHA is scientifically flawed and the resulting seismic hazard and seismic risk estimates are artifacts. The national seismic hazard curves and maps are artifacts because they were produced from PSHA, even though the inputs are scientifically sound. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are two fundamentally different concepts. Seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. Seismic hazard and seismic risk play different roles in engineering design and other policy considerations. Furthermore, measures for seismic hazard mitigation are different from those for seismic risk reduction. The difficulties in the development of design ground motion for NEHRP provisions are caused by the use of the national seismic hazard maps which are neither seismic hazard nor seismic risk. The resulting design ground motions for building codes and other policy considerations are therefore problematic. California’s experience proves that deterministic/scenario seismic hazard analysis is an appropriate approach for seismic hazard assessment, seismic risk assessment, as well as *Kentucky Geological Survey, University of Kentucky, 504 Rose Street, Lexington, KY 40506; phone (859) 323-0564; fax (859)257-1147; e-mail: zmwang@uky.edu. 112 Seismic Hazard Design Issues in the Central United States engineering design and other policy considerations. Deterministic/scenario seismic hazard analysis is also appropriate for engineering design and other policy considerations in the New Madrid region, as well as other regions.

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

Gaussian process regression driven rapid life-cycle based seismic fragility and risk assessment of laminated rubber bearings supported highway bridges subjected to multiple uncertainty sources

Seismic assessment of underground structures is one of the challenging problems in engineering design. This is because there are usually many sources of uncertainties in rocks and probable earthquake characteristics. Therefore, for decreasing of the uncertainties, seismic response of underground structures should be evaluated by sufficient number of earthquake records which is scarcely possible in common seismic assessment of underground structures. In the present study, a practical risk-based approach was performed for seismic risk assessment of an unsupported tunnel. For this purpose, Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) was used to evaluate the seismic response of a tunnel in south-west railway of Iran and different analyses were conducted using 15 real records of earthquakes which were chosen from the PEER ground motion database. All of the selected records were scaled to different intensity levels (PGA=0.1-1.7 g) and applied to the numerical models. Based on the numerical modeling results, seismic fragility curves of the tunnel under study were derived from the IDAcurves. In the next, seismic risk curve of the tunnel were determined by convolving the hazard and fragility curves. On the basis of the tunnel fragility curves, an earthquake with PGA equal to 0.35 g may lead to severe damage or collapse of the tunnel with only 3% probability and the probability of moderate damage to the tunnel is 12%.

It is important to be able to accurately assess seismic risk so that vulnerabilities can be prioritized for retrofit, emergency response procedures can be properly informed, and insurance rates can be sustainably priced to manage risk. To assess the risk of a building (or class of buildings) collapsing in a seismic event, procedures exist for creating one or more mathematical models of the structure of interest and performing nonlinear time history analysis with a large suite of input ground motions to calculate the building's seismic fragility and collapse risk. In this dissertation, three aspects of these procedures for assessing seismic collapse risk are investigated for the purpose of improving their accuracy. It is common to use spectral acceleration with a damping ratio of 5% as a ground motion intensity measure (IM) for assessing collapse fragility. In this dissertation, the use of 70%-damped spectral acceleration as an IM is investigated, with a focus on evaluating its sufficiency and efficiency. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is performed for 22 steel moment frame (SMF) models with 50 biaxial ground motion records to formally evaluate the performance of 70%-damped spectral acceleration as an IM for highly nonlinear response and collapse. It is found that 70%-damped spectral acceleration is much more efficient than 5%-damped spectral acceleration and much more sufficient with respect to epsilon for all considered levels of highly nonlinear response. Its efficiency and sufficiency compares also compares well with more advanced IMs such as average spectral acceleration. When selecting input ground motions for nonlinear time history analysis, most engineers select ground motion records from the NGA-West2 database, which are processed with high-pass filters to remove long-period noise. In this dissertation, the extent to which these filters remove actual ground motion that is relevant to nonlinear time history analysis is evaluated. 52 near-source ground motion records from large-magnitude events are considered. Some records are processed by applying high-pass filters and others are processed by record-specific tilt corrections. Raw and NGA-West2 records are also considered. IDA is performed for 9-, 20-, and 55-story steel moment frame models with these processed records to assess the effects of ground motion processing on the calculated collapse capacity. It is found that if the cutoff period (Tc) is at least 40 seconds, then applying a high-pass filter does not have more than a negligible effect on collapse capacity for any of the considered records or building models. For shorter Tc (e.g. 10 or 15 seconds), it is found that the filters sometimes have a large effect on calculated collapse capacity, in some cases by over 50%, even if Tc is much larger than the building’s fundamental period. Of the considered ground motions, simply using the raw, uncorrected records usually yields more accurate results than using ground motions that have been processed with Tc less than or equal to 20 seconds. For an existing building with unknown design plans, one might perform a collapse risk assessment using an archetype model for which the specific member sizes are assumed based on the relevant design code and building site. In this dissertation, the sensitivity of seismic collapse risk estimates to design criteria and procedures are evaluated for six 9-story and four 20-story post-Northridge SMFs. These SMFs are designed for downtown Los Angeles using different design procedures according to ASCE 7-05 and ASCE 7-10. Seismic risk analysis is performed using the results of IDA with 44 ground motion records and the results are compared to those of pre-Northridge models. It is found that the collapse risk of 9-story SMFs designed according to performance-based design vary by 3x, owing to differences in GMPEs used to generate site-specific response spectra. There is generally less variation in the collapse risk estimates of 20-story post-Northridge SMFs when compared to 9-story post-Northridge SMFs because wind drift limits control the design of many members of the 20-story SMFs. Differences in collapse risk between pre- and post-Northridge SMFs are found to be at least 4x and 8x for the 9- and 20-story models, respectively. Furthermore, in response to four strong ground motion records from large-magnitude events, some of the 9-story and all of the 20-story pre-Northridge SMFs experience collapse and most of the post-Northridge SMFs experience significant damage (MIDR > 0.03).

This study develops a fault-source-based seismic hazard model for the Leech River Valley Fault (LRVF) and the Devil’s Mountain Fault (DMF) in southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. These faults pose significant risks to the provincial capital, Victoria, due to their proximity and potentially large earthquake magnitudes. To evaluate the effects of including these faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and city-wide seismic loss estimation for Victoria, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted by considering different fault rupture patterns and different earthquake magnitude models, as well as variations in their parameters. The aim is to assess the relative contributions of the LRVF-DMF system to the overall seismic hazard and risk in Victoria at different return periods. The consideration of the LRVF-DMF system as a potential seismic source increases the seismic risk assessment results by 10 to 30%, especially at the high return period levels. The sensitivity analysis results highlight the importance of determining the slip rate for the fault deformation zone and of specifying the earthquake magnitude models (e.g., characteristic versus truncated exponential models). From urban seismic risk management perspectives, these nearby faults should be considered critical earthquake scenarios.

This paper shows that the results of contemporary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), uniform hazard spectra, and hazard curves are inconsistent with the fragilitymethod used for seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The calculation used in PSHA is based on the evaluation of the probability of exceeding specified acceleration levels without considering the damaging effects of earthquakes. Empirical fragility of structures and components derived from field observations or qualification tests is conditioned to model large earthquakes, so fragility analysis must be adjusted to correspond with PSHA hazard estimates. Adjustment based on energy absorption principles is presented in the sections that follow, andmacroseismic information from intensity is used for verification. The procedure suggested was applied in seismic probabilistic risk assessment for the Goesgen, Switzerland, nuclear power plant (NPP).

Seismic loss estimation software: A comprehensive review of risk assessment steps, software development and limitations

Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal. Despite the availability of new data, and methodological improvements, the available seismic hazard map of Nepal is about two decades old. So an updated seismic hazard model at the country level is imperative and logical. The seismic hazard and risk model constitute important tools for framing public policies toward land-use planning, building regulations, insurance, and emergency preparedness. In fact, the reliable estimation of seismic hazard and risk eventually minimizes social and economic disruption caused by earthquakes. In this frame of reference, the seismic risk assessment at a country level is elementary in reducing potential losses stemming from future earthquakes. Thus, this study investigates structural vulnerability, seismic risk, and the resulting possible economic losses owing to future earthquakes in Nepal. To this end, seismic risk assessment in Nepal is done using an existing probabilistic seismic hazard, a newly developed structural vulnerability, and recently released exposure data. The OpenQuake-engine, the open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment from the Global Earthquake Model initiative, was used to calculate the seismic hazard and risk in Nepal. The seismic hazard and mean economic loss map were formulated for the 1, 2, 5, and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Finally, the distribution of building damage and corresponding economic losses due to the recurrence of the historical 1934 earthquake was presented in this study.

Seismic fragility analysis of slopes based on large-scale shaking table model tests

Quantitative seismic risk assessments involve hazard characterization, exposure database, vulnerability assessment, and uncertainty modelling, and promote consistent risk management actions, when conducted systematically across a country. This study implements a performance-based earthquake engineering methodology to develop a nationwide earthquake risk model for Canadian wood-frame houses by integrating probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results provided by the Geological Survey of Canada and seismic fragility functions derived from incremental dynamic analysis. To facilitate the implementation of the seismic risk analysis method, an in-house probabilistic seismic hazard analysis tool for Canada is developed and used to verify the accuracy of the adopted approach of approximating the upper tail of the seismic intensity measure distribution and to generate detailed seismic disaggregation results for ground motion record selection and seismic fragility modelling purposes. By integrating the preceding two elements via Monte Carlo methods, a full seismic risk curve can be obtained in a computationally efficient manner. The approach is applied to 1,620 representative locations used for the 2016 Canadian Census and thus facilitates the development of seismic risk maps of key risk metrics that are derived from exceedance probability curves in terms of earthquake damage/loss ratio. The developed seismic risk maps serve as valuable decision-support tools to implement risk-based management strategies consistently across Canada.

A practical approach to explain the consequences of seismic hazards for society and decision making organisations is predicting the seismic risk. In this regard, the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is used extensively to investigate the probability of different seismic hazard levels at a geographical location. In addition, a further advancement is the introduction of Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) method because it provides a new insight into the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) by evaluating the seismic risk specifically for a structure. To evaluate this seismic risk, the probability that the structural seismic demands may exceed a specific value is calculated under different ground motion intensities through a probabilistic approach. This approach is called the fragility analysis. This paper provides a review of recent research advancements in seismic fragility analysis. Different methods and related solutions which can be used for the fragility analysis are discussed. In addition, uncertainty quantification, as a significant feature in fragility analysis, is described and the important parameters which may influence the seismic fragility of a structure are explained. Finally, the authors offer their recommendations for improving the fragility analysis for further studies in the future.

In recent years, the nuclear industry and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have made a tremendous effort to assess the safety of nuclear power plants as advances in seismology have led to the perception that the potential earthquake hazard in the United States may be higher than originally assumed. The Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (S-PRA) is a systematic approach used in the nuclear power plants in the U.S. to realistically quantify the seismic risk as by performing an S-PRA, the dominant contributors to seismic risk and core damage can be identified. The assessment of component fragility is a crucial task in the S-PRA and because of the conservatism in the design process imposed by stringent codes and regulations for safety related structures, structures and safety related items are capable of withstanding earthquakes larger than the Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE). One major aspect of conservatism in the design is neglecting the effect of Soil-Structure-Interaction (SSI), from which conservative estimates of In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) are calculated resulting in conservative seismic demands for plant equipment. In this paper, a typical Reactor Building is chosen for a case study by discretizing the building into a lumped mass stick model (LMSM) taking into account model eccentricities and concrete cracking for higher demand. The model is first analyzed for a fixed base condition using the free field ground motion imposed at the foundation level from which ISRS are calculated at different elevations. Computations taking into account the SSI effects are then performed using the subtraction method accounting for inertial interactions by using frequency dependent foundation impedance functions depicting the flexibility of the foundation as well as the damping associated with foundation-soil interaction. Kinematic interactions are also taken into account in the SSI analysis by using frequency dependent transfer functions relating the free-field motion to the motion that would occur at the foundation level as the presence of foundation elements in soil causes foundation motions to deviate from free-field motions as a result of ground motion incoherence and foundation embedment. Comparing the results of the seismic response analyses, the effects of the SSI is quantified on the overall seismic risk and the SSI margin is calculated. A family of realistic seismic fragility curves of the structure are then developed using common industry safety factors (capacity, ductility, response, and strength factors), and also variability estimates for randomness and uncertainty. Realistic fragility estimates for structures directly enhances the component fragilities from which enhanced values of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and Large Energy Release Frequency (LERF) are quantified as a final S-PRA deliverable.