Abstract
Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the most important hazards related to ground shaking, causing damages to the environment and, often, casualties. Therefore, it is important to assess the seismic performance of slopes, especially in the near fault regions, evaluating the permanent displacements induced by seismic loading. This paper applies a probabilistic approach to evaluate the seismic performance of slopes using an updated database of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Italy. The main advantage of this approach is that of accounting for the aleatory variability of both ground motions and prediction of seismic-induced displacements of slopes. The results are presented in terms of hazard curves, showing the annual rate of exceedance of permanent slope displacement evaluated using ground motion data provided by a standard probabilistic hazard analysis and a series of semi-empirical relationships linking the permanent displacements of slopes to one or more ground motion parameters. The procedure has been implemented on a regional scale to produce seismic landslide hazard maps for the Irpinia district, in Southern Italy, characterised by a severe seismic hazard. Seismic landslide hazard maps represent a useful tool for practitioners and government agencies for a regional planning to identify and monitor zones that are potentially susceptible to earthquake-induced slope instability, thus requiring further detailed, site-specific studies.
Highlights
Earthquakes often produce instability in natural slopes, causing severe human and economic losses
The displacement hazard curves and maps are developed for the Italian territory to provide a useful tool for practitioners and government agencies for a preliminary evaluation of the seismic performance of slopes, stemming from the updated seismic database and the results of the semiempirical relationships adopted in the study
The results of the probabilistic approach can be synthesised in terms of displacement hazard curves, plotting the mean annual rate of exceedance λd for different levels of permanent displacements and in terms of hazard maps, showing the distribution of the return period
Summary
Earthquakes often produce instability in natural slopes, causing severe human and economic losses. The probabilistic approach can be profitably implemented on a regional scale using the ground motion hazard information to evaluate landslides hazard maps (Saygili and Rathje 2009; Wang and Rathje 2015; Chousianitis et al 2016; Sharifi-Mood et al 2017) These maps permit to identify the zones that are more susceptible to earthquake-induced slope instability and to evaluate the probability of occurrence of a displacement level in a specific time interval. The displacement hazard curves and maps are developed for the Italian territory to provide a useful tool for practitioners and government agencies for a preliminary evaluation of the seismic performance of slopes, stemming from the updated seismic database and the results of the semiempirical relationships adopted in the study Both scalar and vector probabilistic approaches are employed: in the first case the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is used as ground motion parameter, while the combination of PGA with the peak ground velocity (PGV) is chosen for the vector approach. A series of hazard maps for the Irpinia district, in the Southern Italy, are illustrated for some threshold values of permanent displacement dy and different yield seismic coefficients ky
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