Nature Of Accidents Research Articles

Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method

Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method

From aggregate to part: Study on the change of coal mine safety records in China under the intervention of risk pre-control management system

Risk pre-control management is of great significance to the safe production of China's coal-mining industry, so it is necessary to clarify the role and existing problems of the current risk pre-control system in China's coal-mining enterprises. On the basis of expounding the background and mechanism of the risk pre-control system, this paper first evaluates the overall intervention effect of the system by constructing an interrupted regression model, and then analyzes the prevention effect of the system on coal mine accidents by category, finding out the urgent needs for improvement. The results suggest that the establishment of risk pre-control management system has no obvious effect on the improvement of coal mine safety records in the short term, but has a significant positive effect in the long run. Moreover, since the construction of the system, its intervention effect on roof accidents, transportation accidents, flood accidents and other accidents is tremendous, while the effect on gas accidents and electro-mechanical accidents is weak, and the control of fire accidents is the worst. Finally, from the system construction process and the nature of accidents, this paper puts forward the corresponding safety management suggestions and accidental prevention measures to further improve the quality of risk pre-control management in China.

A machine learning approach for building an adaptive, real-time decision support system for emergency response to road traffic injuries

In this paper, historical data about road traffic accidents are utilized to build a decision support system for emergency response to road traffic injuries in real-time. A cost-sensitive artificial neural network with a novel heuristic cost matrix has been used to build a classifier capable of predicting the injury severity of occupants involved in crashes. The proposed system was designed to be used by the medical services dispatchers to better assess the severity of road traffic injuries, and therefore to better decide the most appropriate emergency response. Taking into account that the nature of accidents may change over time due to several reasons, the system enables users to build an updated version of the prediction model based on the historical and newly reported accidents. A dataset of accidents that occurred over a 6-year period (2008-2013) has been used for demonstration purposes throughout this paper. The accuracy of the prediction model was 65%. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) showed that the generated classifier can reasonably predict the severity of road traffic injuries. Importantly, using the cost-sensitive learning technique, the predictor overcame the problem of imbalanced severity distributions which are inherent in traffic accident datasets.

RISK ZONES FROM THE FILLING STATIONS MODELLING WITH APPLICATION OF GEOINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

In this paper the questions of technogenic safety of the city Odesa with a population of over 1 million are considered on the example of the analysis of an emergency situation that may arise at filling stations (FS) of the city. The fire safety of theFSsnetwork becomes very important in the context of urban buildings and traffic flows compaction, a significant increase in the number of cars, as well as in the construction of new potentially hazardous objects (PHO) within the urban territory. To solve the problem ofanalysis ofthe risk zones of FSs, a conceptual digital model ofaFS was created, a numerical simulation of the scenario of an unfavourablesituation development at the FS was carried out according to the approved state methodology (an explosion of a vapour-air fuel mixture with a shock wave formation), as well as the obtained zones were visualized on a map of the city of Odessa using the geographic information system QGIS. The digital model of the FS was created taking into account the requirements for the presentation of attributive and spatial data of the relevant GIS. The components of the developed conceptual model are: universal digital identifier, spatial data in the form of type and coordinates of the object, attributive data, which consist of staticand dynamic features, as well as numerical models of emergency situation development. During the visualizing of the obtained calculated data by means of GIS, OSM Place Search, QuickOSM and Multi Ring Buffer plugins were used, as well as data from the OpenStreetMap server. The presented results of modellingand visualization indicate that, when the most unfavourabledevelopment scenarios are realized, the nature of accidents at FS can go beyond the local scale and move to the borders of the residential zone,as well as to nearby industrial buildings and FSs, which in turn can cause unfavourablesituations on them by the domino effect. In addition, the results of the analysis of the obtained heterogeneous modellingand visualization data to determine technogenic risk indicates the possibility of applying the studied principles to other PHOsand also allows to present the data in a visual and accessible form for decision-makers.

Frequency Analysis of the Occurrence and Development of Accidents at Oil and Gas Facilities under Abnormal Weather Conditions in the North

In the article the climatic features of the North are analyzed, anomalous weather conditions characterized by the formation of powerful temperature inversions are identified. The influence of adverse anomalous weather conditions on the nature of accidents is justified, and significant changes in the development of gas pipeline accidents in the North than in conditions with a moderate climate are shown. Based on the results of the analysis of gas pipeline accidents that occurred at low temperatures, the main causes of gas pipeline accidents were identified, and “event trees” of gas leakage from the gas pipeline was developed with an assessment of the frequency of emergency scenarios taking into account the abnormal conditions of the North. The most dangerous scenarios of gas pipeline accident evolution have been identified and their risk levels in the zone of the damage factors have been assessed on the basis of acceptable risk criteria.

Causative Factor Analysis of Passenger Ship Accident (Fire/Explosion) in Indonesia

Number of ship accidents in Indonesia in these two years has been increasing from 355 cases in 2018 to 409 cases in 2019. It means that, 31-32 accident occurred each month or at least 1 ship accident every day along 2018 to 2019. Among all the accidents, Passenger ship (including Passenger ship/Ferry, Ferry Ro-Ro, and High Speed Craft for Passenger) is the most common ship type with percentage up to 30% with 210 people dead/missed and 775 people wounded. It is important to look further how the passenger ship accident happen to understand what are the causative factors contributing to the accidents. National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) in Indonesia investigated some accidents then published the report to their website and it can be re-analysed to get the causative factors. Investigation reports from NTSC provide fire/explosion cases more than other nature of accident. Thus, in this paper, the analysis focuses on the fire/explosion accidents of Passenger Ship that began in car deck. The causative factors are found using new development of MOP Model that classifying failures into 4 M (Man, Machine, Media, Management) and several categories and sub categories.

Importance of Trace Evidence Study in Determining Road Traffic Accident Circumstances in order to Prevent Insurance Fraud

The authors, on the basis of analysis of growing motorization, particularly at the regional level (using the example of Penza region of the Russian Federation) confirm the urgency of the tasks of preserving life and health of road users, note changes in frequency of accidents of various origin, the positive role of insurance instruments in dealing with the consequences of road traffic accidents.At the same time, fraud in the field of compulsory motor third party liability insurance (MTPL) is one of the most important and urgent issues for insurance companies. One of the most common schemes of fictitious accidents is an attempt to get repair or replacement of existing damage at the expense of the insurer. In this regard, the use of transport trace evidence examinations has become widespread.It is this type of transport expertise that reliably and accurately determines conformity of damage to vehicles to the mechanism and circumstances of a road traffic accident. Trace evidence analysis is always assigned when it comes to currently notorious «staged crash». It is impossible to understand the nature of accidents associated with lane change by vehicles moving along the way without study of trace materials. Particularly many problems arise in a situation where both participants in the accident claim that they were moving without changing the direction of movement, and that was the opponent who made a maneuver of lane change not complying with the requirement of the road traffic rules of the Russian Federation on priorities in traffic movement.As an example, the article presents an expert study of a road traffic accident that raised doubts about reliability of circumstances set out by policyholders.

Analysis of surgical management and outcome of Blunt abdominal trauma

Background: Trauma, in particular, blunt abdominal trauma, associated with vehicular accidents and railway accident, has become major cause of morbidity and mortality for working population in developing and industrial nations of world. Hence the present study was undertaken to assess the surgical management and outcome of Blunt abdominal trauma. Method: 49 cases of blunt abdominal trauma studied during study period in a tertiary care hospital. On admission a relevant history with nature of accident, time of occurrence and injuries sustained were noted. A detailed examination of the patient was done, which included general examination with appropriate recording of pulse, blood pressure, and respiratory rate at time of admission, and systemic examination of chest abdomen and central nervous system. Details of external, skeletal and other associated injuries were noted. Presence or absence of hematuria was also recorded. Result: Predominantly younger population (21-30) is affected by trauma with male (10-1) preponderance. Vehicular accident was the commonest cause (48.4%). Blind abdominal tap was 53% sensitive for hemoperitoneum while USG 90%. CT was almost 100% sensitive for abdominal injuries. Spleen (53.08%) and liver (22.44%) were the common organs injured. Associated injuries were present in 42.85% cases. Mortality was higher in those operated beyond one hour. Conclusion: Prevention and measures to decrease morbidity and mortality from abdominal trauma is essential to avoid loss of productive years of life. Trauma registry with documentation of care delivered, assessment of outcome and implementation of necessary changes would help in providing better care.

Analysis of sanitary and irretrievable losses depending on the nature and conditions of emergency situations on the railway

Relevance. The relevance of the problem is determined by the importance of rail transport in Russia for supporting a diversified economy and implementing socially important services for transportation of goods, baggage and passengers. A system of rapid response and medical assistance to victims in large-scale emergencies on the railway also exists due to large numbers of victims and remoteness of emergency areas from large settlements.Intention. To develop an algorithm for predicting irretrievable and sanitary losses depending on the nature and conditions of railway accidents.Methods. A comprehensive analysis of the 200 most significant railway accidents in the world from 1960 to 2018. Using statistical procedures, the determinants of the number of victims were assessed.Results and discussion. The average data, the dispersion of the number of victims in emergency situations on the railway were determined depending on the nature of accidents. The factors influencing the number of sanitary and irretrievable losses are identified. A predictive algorithm to determine the number of victims depending on the nature and conditions of railway accidents. The structure of injuries in victims depending on the nature and conditions of railway accidents is described.Conclusion. The data obtained in the study will help in making decisions on the elimination of emergency situations on the railway.

:Kitāb al-Taḥrīsh

:<i>Kitāb al-Taḥrīsh</i>

Epidemiological Study of Road Traffic Accidents and Role of Alcohol in Road Traffic Accidents

The objective of the study was to assess the epidemiological factors of road traffic accident victims, which will give a clue on the risk factor in road traffic accidents. As per the report from Transport Research Wing, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India approximately 400 people die per day because of road traffic accidents, in 1 hour 57 accidents occur in which 17 victims die of which 54% victims are between 15 to 34 years19. The study involves 100 victims of Road Traffic Accidents reported to Government Sivagangai Medical College and Hospitals. About 64% victims are in productive age group. About 64% victims are due to accidents caused by driver under alcoholism, of which >60% suffer from greivious injury. 40% of road traffic accidents are due to over speeding. Hence, Alcohol places an important role in occurring of road traffic accidents and in determining the nature of accident and injuries. Proper education and alcohol abstinence can reduce the RTA and prevent excess load on health care system and reduce the economic loss of the family and the country as whole.

Analysis of road accidents on NH-1 between RD 98 km to 148 km

Summary The present study deals with the characteristics and trend of road accidents on a selected stretch of NH-1 between RD 98 km and 148 km. Four year road accident data from 2007 to 2010 of 50 km long stretch was collected which includes the period when construction of 6-laning project started on NH-1. The paper also brings forth the result of widening project on road accidents. The data was analyzed to identify cause of accidents, nature of accidents and type of injury, type of vehicles involved and time of accidents. The widening project has resulted in tremendous increase in number of accidents on the road. Maximum accidents fall in the category of non-injury type (49%). Serious injury type accidents are found to be more than fatal accidents. Findings show that head on/rear end collisions, caused mainly due to overspeeding/driver's fault account for 46% of the accidents. It is seen that trucks/canter/buses are found involved in maximum number of accidents (42%). The day time accidents are found to be more than night time accidents. This paper presents the data analysis, improvement measures and conclusions recommendations to reduce road accidents on NH-1.

English

There are many human injuries induced by occupational accidents in construction industries. Determination and analysis of construction accidents' contributing factors is a good way to accidents' prevention and reduction. Therefore, this study was done in view of identification and analyzing factors related to frequency and severity of construction accidents and injuries in the big construction industries. This analytical-cross sectional study was implemented on 500 occupational accidents during five years in the Iraninan big construction sites. Data gathering was done based on accident report form and information were related to all the reviewed construction accidents. Data analysis was carried out using statistical tests such as linear regression, independent sample T-test and One-way ANOVA, including statistical software of SPSS v22.0. The results revealed average values of accidents indices including accident frequency rate (AFR) and accident severity rate (AFR and ASR) respectively were 4.71 and 216.28. The findings showed that almost all factors including demographics, organization, accident type, work conditions and equipment, unsafe acts, unsafe conditions, nature of accidents, Health, safety and environment (HSE) training and control measures, and finally accident time and place were significantly related to the AFR and ASR (p<0.05). Conclusively, the results indicated that the frequency and severity of occupational accidents in construction industries were due to failures in combination of different contributing factors. Therefore, to promote HSE in the construction fields and reduce frequency and severity of the construction accidents, all these factors were considered. Key words: Occupational accidents, human injury, construction industry, accident analysis, contributing factors.

Hot Spots for Vessel-to-Vessel and Vessel-to-Fixed-Object Accidents Along the Great Lakes Seaway

In the past decade, an average of 20.5 vessel accidents per year have been reported along the Great Lakes Seaway (GLS) in Canada and the United States, with the vast majority clustered at specific unsafe locations or sites along the route. Sites with an unacceptably high potential for accidents are referred to as hot spots, and these hot spots are prime candidates for safety intervention. Because of the random nature of accidents, the identification of hot spots must be based on robust site-specific prediction models of accident expectation. This paper presents an empirical Bayes prediction model developed for the GLS that considers four types of accident scenarios: vessel to vessel and vessel to fixed objects, for river and for canal or lock sections. Hot spot sites are determined with two risk tolerance thresholds: 95th percentile exceedance (high-risk sites) and 85th percentile exceedance (moderate-risk and high-risk sites). For the 95th percentile threshold and vessel-to-vessel accidents, five hot spots were identified on the 1,600-km length of the GLS studied (excluding lake or port areas). Of the designated hot spot sections, 10 km (60.6%) were located along natural river courses and the rest at canals or locks. For vessel-to-fixed-objects accidents, all high-risk hot spots were at canal or lock sections (15.5 km). Reducing the threshold to the 85th percentile resulted in a 7.8% increase in seaway length that was designated as a hot spot. The locations of these hot spot sections along the GLS were consistent for both thresholds.

Epidemiology of livestock-related injuries in a major trauma center in Kashan, Iran

ObjectiveLivestock-related injuries are one of the important factors causing morbidity and mortality in patients admitted to hospital. Treatment of these patients is still a major problem in health care system. The aim of current study was to assess the epidemiology of livestock-related injuries in a major trauma center in Iran from 2006 to 2011 MethodsIn a prospective study, patients with live-stock-related injuries who were consecutively admitted to the trauma center in Kashan, Iran between 2006 and 2011 were evaluated. The data collected included patient’s demographics, place and nature of accident, damaged organ, educational level, transport and outcome. Data were expressed as mean±standard deviation. ResultsA total of 129 patients were included in this study, accounting for 0.3% of all trauma admission (40 273 cases). The mean age was (55.27±14.45) years. Men were affected four times more than women. Falling down from livestock is the main mechanism of trauma in all groups. Upper and lower extremities were most frequently injured (n=72), followed by the head, neck and spine (n=33 for each). There was one death resulting from livestock-related injury in this study. ConclusionDespite the low incidence, livestock-related injuries can damage major organs of human body and therefore appropriate training program to increase the safety awareness in home and outdoor is very important.

Safety and accessibility in use: risk factors and their determinants

Accidents that occur in built spaces represent the result of the interaction of several factors. Some of these factors are attributable to the characteristics of the environment, others depend on the user and the ways in which the environment is used. The multifactorial nature of accidents explains why sectorial approaches represent a significant obstacle to the implementation of effective policies and intervention strategies for creating safer and more usable environments. The subject of this essay, that pays special attention to residential scenarios, is the description and classification of risk factors, that is, those environmental circumstances as well as individual and behavioural conditions that increase the frequency and / or magnitude of an accident. The article highlights the need for a comprehensive view of accidents as a cultural condition for an inclusive and safe design (technical prevention) and effective information campaigns aimed at users (prevention in use).

Application of modern educational technologies in the training for the management of accidents with chemical hazards

The article presents the application of modern educational technology in the training for the management of accidents with chemical hazards. It describes the 'HeSPRO' software package created to integrate the functions of evaluation and prediction of the effects of hazardous substances both in chemical accidents and during the use of highly toxic substances. The assessment of the software package application was carried out based on hypothetical models. The chemical hazard assessment was carried out through the analysis of the obtained results. It was concluded that the software package provides optimal conditions for effective evaluation and prediction of the situation in chemical accidents with hazardous materials.

Modeling Driver Mental Workload for Accident Causation and Prevention

Past road safety studies have mostly focused on identification of scenarios involving high accident risk. However, risky scenarios only describe accident outcomes rather than actual causality. Discussion of driver's cognitive interaction when driving is a necessity for deeper study on the nature of accidents. To comprehend the entire structure of mental workload, this research proposes a framework for studying mental models that incorporates task demand and motivated capability. Understanding the contributing factors of mental model and the individual difference in task demand and motivated capability can help evaluate the mental workload. In addition, integrating mental model with accident chain analysis enables exploring information net effect on mental workload. Thus, optimized information can hopefully be defined and provided to drivers in different scenarios without causing additional risk of accidents.

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.

Pattern of Fatal Motorized Two-wheeler Crash Injuries in Northern India: Is Safety Helmet Adequate Prevention

This retrospective study sought to collect a representative sample of motorized two-wheeler crashes having fatal outcome with reference to their age, sex, riding position, type of vehicle, nature of accident, pattern of injuries etc. among the helmeted and non-helmeted riders. We examined the pattern of fatal injuries between the helmeted and non-helmeted motorized two-wheeler crash victims in 134 cases subjected to autopsy during five years from 2000 to 2004. Young adults of the age-group 21-25 years constituted the majority of the victims, 48 (36%) and the 16-30 year age group accounted for 98 (73%) motorized two wheeler deaths. The overall male: female ratio was 1.6:1. Motorcyclists were exclusively male. The male: female ratio of scooterists was 1.7:1, however, among the moped crash victims, this ratio was 1:2.2. Scooterists accounted for the majority of crash victims, 70 (52%) and drivers in all the three categories, 88 (66%), outnumbered the pillion riders, 46 (34%). Sixty-two (46%) victims were helmeted, of which males, 49 (79%), were the majority. Of all the three categories of motorized two wheeler users, non-helmeted victims were far more than the helmeted ones in the moped users, the ratio of helmeted: non-helmeted users being 1:2.4; again in this category, the male: female ratio was 1:4.7. Motorized heavy vehicles were responsible for majority of deaths, 53(40%) while slips on roads etc. accounted for 15 (11%) deaths. All the non-helmeted victims sustained scalp injuries, with 70 (97%) of them suffering fractures to the skull, as compared to 18 (29%) of the helmeted ones. However, as regards the injuries to the thorax and abdomen, the helmeted: non-helmeted victim ratio was 4.3:1. Of the victims who died within one hour of the accidents, 36 (75%) were non-helmeted. Helmets prevent and/or reduce the deaths due to head injury, however in majority of cases, there being multiple injuries, other road safety and injury prevention measures need to be devised and implemented. However the implications for safety measures also deserve consideration.