Frequency Analysis of the Occurrence and Development of Accidents at Oil and Gas Facilities under Abnormal Weather Conditions in the North

Abstract

In the article the climatic features of the North are analyzed, anomalous weather conditions characterized by the formation of powerful temperature inversions are identified. The influence of adverse anomalous weather conditions on the nature of accidents is justified, and significant changes in the development of gas pipeline accidents in the North than in conditions with a moderate climate are shown. Based on the results of the analysis of gas pipeline accidents that occurred at low temperatures, the main causes of gas pipeline accidents were identified, and “event trees” of gas leakage from the gas pipeline was developed with an assessment of the frequency of emergency scenarios taking into account the abnormal conditions of the North. The most dangerous scenarios of gas pipeline accident evolution have been identified and their risk levels in the zone of the damage factors have been assessed on the basis of acceptable risk criteria.