Nationally Determined Contributions Targets Research Articles

Enhancing Transparency of Climate Efforts: MITICA’s Integrated Approach to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must articulate their most ambitious mitigation targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years and regularly submit interconnected information on greenhouse gas (GHG) aspects, including national GHG inventories, NDC progress tracking, mitigation policies and measures (PAMs), and GHG projections in various mitigation scenarios. Research highlights significant gaps in the definition of mitigation targets and the reporting on GHG-related elements, such as inconsistencies between national GHG inventories, projections, and mitigation targets, a disconnect between PAMs and mitigation scenarios, as well as varied methodological approaches across sectors. To address these challenges, the Mitigation-Inventory Tool for Integrated Climate Action (MITICA) provides a methodological framework that links national GHG inventories, PAMs and GHG projections, applying a hybrid decomposition approach that integrates machine learning regression techniques with classical forecasting methods for developing GHG emission projections. MITICA enables mitigation scenario generation until 2050, incorporating over 60 PAMs across Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sectors. It is the first modelling approach that ensures consistency between reporting elements, aligning NDC progress tracking and target setting with IPCC best practices while linking climate change with sustainable economic development. MITICA’s results include projections that align with observed trends, validated through cross-validation against test data, and employ robust methods for evaluating PAMs, thereby establishing its reliability.

Macroeconomic impacts and co-benefits of deep-decarbonization in Thailand

AbstractThe updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2022 of Thailand includes an aggressive GHG emission reduction target of 40% in 2030 from its baseline emissions. However, the macroeconomic impacts and co-benefits associated with reducing GHG emissions are not addressed. This study analyzes the macroeconomic implications and co-benefits of GHG emission reduction in Thailand to achieve the NDC and net zero emission (NZE) targets by 2050 using the AIM/Hub-Thailand model. This paper provides co-benefits for Thailand on ambitious long-term GHG emission reduction targets. Considering the co-benefit analysis in the policy documents will provide holistic insights on the positive impacts of GHG mitigation. Results show that Thailand would have to bear a GDP loss of 7.7% in 2050 compared to the BAU level if the net zero emissions need to be achieved. Fuel switching from fossil fuel to electricity in the demand side and improvement of technologies in the power sector also reduces air pollutant emissions. The increasing dependence on domestic energy supply in the NZE scenario will make the country less vulnerable to the fluctuating prices in the international energy market. In terms of trade-offs, the land use for sustainable biomass in both the NDC and NZE scenarios will be larger than in the BAU scenario. Results show better land use for biomass production and higher yields in agricultural production. Moreover, the achievement of NZE pathway will require effective usage of land area and better use of energy resources, thereby making the country more energy secure.

Emission Prediction, Global Stocktake, and NDC Update: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System

This analysis proposes a prediction framework for estimating the probability of fulfilling nationally determined contributions (NDC). The framework using conventional empirical methodology (CO-STIRPAT, bootstrapping sampling, and system dynamics) is employed to project the paths of carbon emissions up to 2030. When the approach is applied to data in the Republic of Korea (ROK) presents that the effect of increasing the share of green energy alone may not be enough to achieve the NDC target by 2030. Additional efforts are required to adopt advanced climate technologies related to carbon intensity and energy efficiency, given the predicted economic conditions until 2030. Alternatively, it may be appropriate for the ROK to slow down the pace at which it raises its NDC. Our prediction framework can provide information that can motivate countries to reevaluate whether the ambition level of its target is compatible with the projected economic conditions and to set more reasonable goals in their subsequent NDCs.

IMPACT OF GREEN CAMPUS TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS ON EMISSION REDUCTION TARGET 2030

The effects of climate change on the environment, human health, and economy are significant. Global warming and climate change are primarily caused by emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. In response, Sebelas Maret University, an Indonesian higher education institution located in Surakarta, Central Java, established the Emission-Free Day, held on the first Friday of every month beginning in July 2020. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of the Emission-Free Day in achieving 2030 emission reduction goals. This study analyzes the effect of the Emission-Free Day on reducing emissions from motorized vehicles on college campuses. The Tier-1 method, applying emission factors from the Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory published in 2006 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was used to estimate the emission reduction. The findings indicate that while the Zero Emissions Program aligns with the Sebelas Maret University Green Campus Policy, its contribution to the 2030 emission reduction targets specified in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is negligible. Additional measures are required to enhance emission reduction efforts, such as the establishment of a Centralized Parking Facility, the implementation of an RFID card system to restrict vehicle access to the campus, the introduction of a ridesharing program, the provision of employee shuttle services, and the promotion of the use of public transportation. These attempts will support global emission reduction efforts and significantly contribute to achieving NDC targets. The study emphasizes the significance of instituting a variety of complementary programs to effectively combat emissions from motorized vehicles and promote a sustainable and low-carbon campus environment.

The Indonesian Government’s Role in Setting Renewable Energy Targets to Reduce GHG Emissions from the Electrical Energy Sector

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are being blamed for global warming, and the Indonesian government is concerned about it. The government has proven its concern for GHG reduction by participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and signing the Paris Agreement. In order to meet the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target in the National Energy General Plan (RUEN) 2015-2050, the government has issued regulations and plans designed to achieve the objective of producing up to 31% of the nation’s electrical energy from renewable sources by 2050. The RUEN transcription in the General Plan of Regional Energy (RUED) will be implemented in the RUED of West Papua (RUED-P), which is expected to reach the target of 33% of the energy production from renewable sources by . The main issues with implementing NDC targets in RUEN and RUED-P are related to time and costs. This paper investigates the effectiveness of current and proposed government regulations in achieving Indonesia's NDC target by 2030 through the implementation of RUEN and RUED-P in the province of West Papua. The simulation results show that the target of achieving the NDC target of a 29% reduction in GHGs through RUEN can be surpassed. The potential exists to achieve a reduction of 54,363 tons CO2e (or 30.01%), compared to the ‘business as usual’ (BAU) scenario of 77.619 tons CO2e. However, the NDC target of a 41% reduction by 2050 will not be met as implemention of the West Papua regional scenario via the RUED-P will result in a GHG reduction of only 55,393 tons of CO2e, or 28.63% under this scenario. By imposing a 2030 target for energy production from renewable sources amounting to 33% of total generating capacity under RUED-P, the NDC target can actually be exceeded. Under every scenario, the state-owned electric company (PLN) operates at a deficit under current customer pricing. For this reason, the government needs to increase the basic electricity tariff to IDR 2,500 per kWh in order to support PLN operations and not burden the state's budget by subsidizing PLN’s losses.

STUDI PENGURANGAN EMISI KARBON SISTEM KETENAGALISTRIKAN PROVINSI BALI: ANALISIS RUPTL 2021-2030

Indonesia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets a 19 to 27% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Assuming this target applies uniformly to all provinces in Indonesia, including the power sector, a modeling analysis of Bali's power system is conducted to assess GHG emission reductions. Two scenarios are developed in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to evaluate the future deployment of Bali's power system. The Business-As-Usual (BaU) scenario serves as the baseline for emission reduction in other scenarios and assumes the development of Bali's power system without emission reduction interventions. The RUPTL scenario assumes the continued development of Bali's power system in line with the electricity development plan document. Results show that the RUPTL scenario achieves a 20.89% reduction in emissions, which fulfills the regional assumption of a 19% NDC target. However, it falls short of achieving the 2030 target of 27% emission reduction.

Potential of carbon sequestration enhancement through intensive silvicultural techniques using Shorea leprosula plantation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

Abstract. Iskandar M, Siregar IZ, Krisnawati H. 2023. Potential of carbon sequestration enhancement through intensive silvicultural techniques using Shorea leprosula plantation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 24: 4699-4713. Various sectors are involved in achieving Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), including Forestry and Other Land Uses (FOLU) sector. Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) implementation by forest concessionaires (PBPHs) enormously contributes to land-based mitigation activities, primarily at the local level. One of the SFM activities is forest enrichment with Intensive Silvicultural (SILIN) technique using Shorea leprosula Miq. to enhance carbon stock and sequestration. This study was conducted in PT Sarmiento Parakantja Timber (PT Sarpatim) in Central Kalimantan (Indonesia) and used the measurement data from 32 purposive sampling plots. Each plot was 40m × 40m in size, constructed under three different SILIN patterns (conventional strip, effective strip, and gap) as well as natural forest stands. This study found that SILIN gap pattern had higher carbon stock and sequestration potential, compared to the natural forest (reference) stands, and reached a net sink condition after 30 years. For the stands of SILIN conventional and effective strip patterns, the carbon stocks were lower than the reference stand, even when the vegetation aged 30 years. PBPHs applying SILIN technique as part of the SFM and the mitigation actions demonstrate an enhanced carbon stock and sequestration. This effort supports Indonesia’s Enhanced NDC target and FOLU Net Sink 2030.

The role of social forestry in achieving NDC targets: Study cases of Lampung and DI Yogyakarta

Social Forestry (SF) in Indonesia has emerged as a keystone strategy for Sustainable Forest Management. By allocating 12.7 million ha of forest to be managed by local communities, the government has set in motion an ambitious plan for SF to reduce poverty, empower local people, and improve forest conditions. More recently, SF is framed for its opportunity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study focused on examining the contribution of SF to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals in Yogyakarta and Lampung. By analyzing spatial data of SF areas and land cover changes using ArcView 10.8, the study assessed the carbon stock potential in SF areas. Carbon stock calculations were based on the 2022 National Forest Reference Level (FRL) for the periods before and after SF implementation. The finding of the study indicated that the carbon stock of SF areas in Yogyakarta and Lampung ranged from 9,214,381 to 9,923,420 ton CO2eq prior to SF, while the current carbon stock ranges from 8,703,489 to 9,393,706 ton CO2eq, representing a decrease (around 5.4%) rather than an increase. Overall, the changes in carbon stock were relatively small and localized, and the magnitude of the increase was insufficient to offset the overall decrease. To achieve the objectives of SF, such as meeting emission targets and achieving sustainable land use, it is crucial to carefully manage forest edges and fragmented forests, as they can contribute to carbon stock losses. Additionally, further studies and research are needed to improve the accuracy of carbon stock calculations, particularly for non-forest categories, which have higher uncertainty in the reference levels

How can pacific island countries meet their nationally determined contributions?

Pacific Island Countries (PICs) advocate for greenhouse gas emissions reductions but face many barriers in transitioning from fossil fuels. Despite these obstacles, PICs aim to shift to renewable energy to meet ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Research suggests that this is limited by state and regulatory capacity, market structures, and access to finance. While these problems are salient, this article argues that discussions remain overly focused on technical solutions. We argue that socio-cultural factors also hinder the transition, including international actors conducting program and project development in the Pacific that insufficiently reflect local context. Drawing on recent decarbonisation policy and renewable energy project examples we argue that PICs are more likely to meet their NDC targets if the transition is fostered through cultural practices for deliberative decision making, such as Talanoa, Talanga, and community-based approaches. Such practices will deliver maximum benefits to communities and ensure a just and sustainable transition.

Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach

<hr /> <p><big>This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.</big></p>

Food Production and Amazon Preservation are Not Mutually Exclusive: Exploring Feasible Avenues from the Perspective of Land Use Related NDCs in Brazil

The COP21 Paris Agreement and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) have proven to be milestones in the operationalization of climate action at the country-level, particularly in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. In Brazil, AFOLU-related NDC actions in its first version envisaged the elimination of, for instance: illegal deforestation in the Amazon region, the restoration and reforestation of 12 million hectares of severely degraded lands, and the substantial expansion of sustainably produced biofuels by 2030. While Brazilian Government commitment to these NDC targets soon vanished, a specific analytical question concerns as to how far sustainable land use scenarios can contribute to non-climate benefits (i.e., socioeconomic development) despite their internal challenges of harmonizing them with environmental protection and climate change mitigation. In this paper, we analyse the potential socioeconomic and environmental synergies and trade-offs in NDC implementation, given the possibility of the demand for land in Brazil increase due to agricultural and livestock expansion. We focus our analysis on GDP growth, income distribution, and food security. We do so by integrating land-use with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and running policy scenarios, emulating different levels of NDC and development policy implementation. Our analysis helps us to understand how social and economic outcomes do change under varying levels of commitment by decision-makers. It shows that NDC implementation in Brazil is preferable to a business-as-usual development pathway, particularly when climate change is taken into consideration. While GDP and household income appear unaffected by NDC implementation, reducing the pressure over Amazon deforestation along with other social benefits appears under more stringent NDC implementation. Those results are particularly important given the significant upward trend in Amazon deforestation recorded in the last few years and the loss of purchasing power of low-income classes observed since 2015 in Brazil. In the AFOLU sector, NDC implementation, as in its first version, could thus act as entry points for alternative development pathways. For instance, such as the ones discussed under green economy or low carbon growth paradigms - although, possible trade-offs between agricultural and other sectors will still need to be closely monitored.

Identifying Emissions Reduction Opportunities in International Bilateral Emissions Trading Systems to Achieve China's Energy Sector NDCs.

Exploring more emissions reduction opportunities for China's energy sector and lowering China's decarbonisation costs are essential to fulfilling China's nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and making China's sustainable development more feasible. This study explored emissions reduction opportunities for China's energy sector in international bilateral emissions trading systems (ETSs) using a CGE (computable general equilibrium) model. This study revealed that linking China's ETS to those of regions with lower decarbonisation responsibilities, which tend to be developing regions, could lower China's carbon prices, thus increasing China's domestic energy supply and lowering energy prices (and vice versa). Meanwhile, the volume of emissions from regions linked to China also significantly affected the degree of the change in China's carbon prices. Among these, ETS links to India and Russia could reduce China's carbon price from 7.80 USD/ton under domestic ETS to 2.16 USD/ton and 6.79 USD/ton, allowing the energy sector and energy-intensive sectors to increase greenhouse gas emissions by 1.14% and 7.05%, respectively, without falling short of meeting its NDC targets. In contrast, as a consequence of links with the United States and the European Union, China's carbon price could increase to 5.37 USD/ton and 1.79 USD/ton, respectively, which would limit China's energy and energy-intensive sectors to emitting 5.45% and 2.24% fewer greenhouse gases in order to meet its NDC targets.

National REDD+ initiatives in Caribbean SIDS to enhance NDC implementation

The objective of this paper is to explore the potential of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest degradation, and Foster conservation, Sustainable management of forests, and Enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) to support Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) efforts in achieving their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. A comprehensive overview of the region's perspective on REDD+ in meeting their climate targets in the forestry sector was conducted. The methodology adopted a content analysis of Caribbean countries' NDCs and REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposals (R-PP). The data used for the content analysis were obtained from initial and updated NDCs for sixteen Caribbean SIDS and REDD+ R-PP for four countries. The results demonstrate that Caribbean countries have high interest in adopting deforestation and forest degradation into their NDC targets. However, REDD+ does not appear to be a high priority in these countries and has been adopted in only four countries. REDD+ systems and mechanisms including measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) in forests, forest and land governance and land rights, and safeguards and financing for REDD+ are hardly considered in Caribbean SIDS NDCs except for the four countries that have already adopted REDD+. These four countries have paid considerable attention to adhere to REDD+ rules as demonstrated in their R-PPs. They are however still in the process of developing MRV forest systems and yet to develop national forest monitoring systems, and details on financing REDD+ and implementation are scarce.

Economic growth and challenges in achieving NDC targets: A Moroccan perspective

Ensuring a sustainable economic growth along with minimal environmental impacts is a common challenge to both developing and advanced countries. It is even more challenging for developing countries to achieve such a balance because of social, financial and political pressures. We use Morocco as a case study to, quantitatively, assess the compatibility of the Moroccan future economic growth policies and its commitments, as per the Paris Agreement, to reduce CO2 emissions. Morocco has submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to UNFCCC on 22nd June 2021. Meanwhile, the New Development Model (NDM) report published on April 2021, presents an official vision on the Moroccan economy and society by 2035, including different development metrics targets such as the doubling the GDP per capita by 2035. The main purpose of the article is to assess the compatibility of the NDM growth targets with the NDC commitments.

Application of integrated Korean forest growth dynamics model to meet NDC target by considering forest management scenarios and budget

BackgroundForests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural growth can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low growth of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic of Korea. In response to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Korean government has proposed 2030 greenhouse gas roadmap to achieve a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the forest sector set a sequestration target of 26 million tons by 2030. In this study, the Korean forest growth model (KO-G-Dynamic model) was used to analyze various climate change and forest management scenarios and their capacity to address the NDC targets. A 2050 climate change adaptation strategy is suggested based on forest growth and CO2 sequestration.ResultsForest growth was predicted to gradually decline, and CO2 sequestration was predicted to reach 23 million tons per year in 2050 if current climate and conditions are maintained. According to the model, sequestrations of 33 million tCO2 year−1 in 2030 and 27 million tCO2 year−1 in 2050 can be achieved if ideal forest management is implemented. It was also estimated that the current forest management budget of 317 billion KRW (264 million USD) should be twice as large at 722 billion KRW (602 million USD) in the 2030s and 618 billion KRW (516 million USD) in the 2050s to achieve NDC targets.ConclusionsThe growth trend in Korea's forests transitions from young-matured stands to over-mature forests. The presented model-based forest management plans are an appropriate response and can increase the capacity of Korea to achieve its NDC targets. Such a modeling can help the forestry sector develop plans and policies for climate change adaptation.

Evaluating the enhancement of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of developing countries: an international support programme perspective

ABSTRACT Enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is an important exercise to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement also recognizes that support to developing countries in this regard will help them to aim for higher climate ambition. The role of international support programmes in the NDC enhancement process is crucial but is not often covered in scientific research. Consequently, the factors driving a country’s decision to apply for NDC-related assistance have also not yet been fully explored. Acknowledging the research gap, this paper framed and tested multiple hypotheses to evaluate the impact of potential factors on the likelihood of a country applying for assistance to enhance its NDCs. For this, a logistic regression method was employed. Data from the two initiatives coordinating the technical and financial assistance worldwide, namely the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) and Climate Promise, were reviewed for this purpose. The CAEP program is financially supported by Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK. This study identifies the level of socio-economic development and the population’s exposure to air pollution as key factors which influence the likelihood of applying for assistance under CAEP and Climate Promise in developing countries. Further, the presence of democratic aspects in the form of governance may also influence this choice. Finally, this study discusses the results and associated policy implications for countries receiving assistance to enhance their NDCs. Key policy insights Developing countries with relatively low socio-economic development are more likely to apply for assistance to enhance their NDCs. The assistance is designed to help them to build capacities to develop and implement future climate policies. Air pollution and climate change issues are interconnected. Exposure to air pollution is a potential indicator that can influence the NDC enhancement process in developing countries. The assistance for enhancing NDCs will lead to NDC targets that are well-informed and are aligned with national and sub-national development priorities with realistic prospects of implementation. Climate vulnerability and net trade do not influence the decision-making process to apply for NDC enhancement assistance.

파리협정 제6조 상응조정 규칙의 해석과 우리나라 대응 정책의 시사점

Under a new climate regime, parties can voluntarily participate in cooperative approaches that include internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMO) and use them in the achievement of mitigation targets in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) on the basis of Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. This leaves room for parties to accomplish their NDC targets in a flexible way, but robust accounting needs to be applied in order to avoid double counting of ITMO transferred and used for NDCs between participating countries. This way of robust accounting is called corresponding adjustment. Specific implementation rules on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement were finally fleshed out in November 2021 at the 3rd conference of the parties to the Paris Agreement, and the methods and procedures to apply corresponding adjustment were also formulated. Previous studies on corresponding adjustment explored i) fundamental principles, ii) design elements (such as timing, accounting metric, target standard, reporting, NDC timeframe, etc.), and iii) diverse methods that have to be considered in the formulation of the most appropriate rules of corresponding adjustment. Now that we have specific rules, it is time to explore the ways to apply corresponding adjustment at the national level in the most appropriate way. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the specific implementation rules on corresponding adjustment, explore the policy-wise points of consideration for national application, and finally draw out the most appropriate policy responses. For this, specific implementation of rules on corresponding adjustment are classified into three categories: i) corresponding adjustment method and application, ii) acquisition tracks of ITMO as a subject of corresponding adjustment, and iii) reporting and risk of corresponding adjustment. This paper concludes by summarizing policy implications for the appropriate paths forward regarding Korea’s application of corresponding adjustment in the future.

The cost-benefit comparisons of China's and India's NDCs based on carbon marginal abatement cost curves

Incorporating co-benefits of carbon abatement policies can offset costs and inspire greater and faster reductions in emissions in many cases. Most studies on co-benefits are carried out within a partial equilibrium framework and ignore the general equilibrium effects. Therefore, using a computable general equilibrium model, this study incorporated the co-benefits of carbon abatement policies into the carbon marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), and evaluated the total abatement costs and cost-saving effects for China and India to achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target. The results indicate that the original carbon MACCs of India in any given year are generally higher than those of China; however, after considering the air pollution-related co-benefits, the overall level of the revised MACCs in China is slightly higher than that of India from 2020 to 2030. In the composition of total co-benefits in China and India, the co-benefits of SO2 reductions account for more than 80% of national total co-benefits, followed by the co-benefits of NOx and PM2.5 reductions. Furthermore, if co-benefits are considered, whether it is China or India, the marginal abatement costs and total abatement costs to achieve NDC targets can be effectively offset; but in comparison, India has more significant cost-saving effects, while for China it will be more difficult to reduce emissions in the latter half of the process of achieving NDC targets. These findings are helpful for developing countries in coordinating and strengthening their ability to tackle climate change and environmental protection.

Visibility of carbon market approaches in greenhouse gas inventories

Under the Paris Agreement, Parties must track the implementation and achievement of their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). In many cases, NDC targets are expressed as a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions level and their implementation and achievement is tracked through national GHG inventories. To achieve their targets, it is thus essential for countries that the effects of mitigation measures are visible in their inventories. Inventory visibility is understood as the degree to which a change in GHG emissions or removals resulting from mitigation actions is reflected in GHG inventories. Inventory visibility can be assessed by identifying which emission sources and gases are affected by a mitigation action, determining the minimum inventory methods required for reflecting the related emission reduction, and identifying the completeness of and methods used by the current GHG inventory. In addition, it is useful to identify potential differences with the quantification approaches used under carbon market mechanisms. Inventory visibility is found to be generally high for measures that reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, while in parts of the industrial processes sector and in the forestry sector there is a higher risk that emission reductions are not visible. An analysis of the portfolio of Clean Development Mechanism projects shows that for most projects this risk is low; only 8% of the carbon credit supply potential is assessed to have a medium risk and 5% is assessed to have a high risk. However, as future carbon market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement may need to tap more into project types with medium to higher risk of non-visibility, national GHG inventory systems may need to be strengthened to assure visibility of mitigation projects.

Averaging or multi-year accounting? Environmental integrity implications for using international carbon markets in the context of single-year targets

ABSTRACT Under the Paris Agreement, most countries have communicated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for a single year. Single-year targets present considerable challenges when countries use international carbon markets to achieve their NDCs. This paper assesses the environmental integrity implications of the two options that countries with single-year targets can use to account for internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement: averaging and multi-year approaches. To assess the implications of these options, the paper considers a variety of scenarios for how two countries might engage with Article 6 and assesses how the choice of the accounting approach may affect aggregated emissions from the two countries. The paper finds that aggregated emissions could increase, decrease or remain unaffected, depending on: which of the two accounting approaches is chosen by the transferring and the acquiring country; whether the generation or use of ITMOs decreases, increases, or keeps constant over time; whether the countries’ emissions in the target year are representative for the countries’ emissions trend; and what course of action countries take in the case of a possible over- or under-achievement of their NDC targets. Key policy insights While averaging is simple to implement and does not require countries to establish multi-year trajectories or budgets, it can lead to higher or lower aggregated emissions from the cooperating countries, compared to the situation in which the countries achieved their targets without using Article 6. By contrast, under multi-year approaches, aggregated emissions do not change, as long as multi-year targets or trajectories are credibly defined. As countries have a free choice between averaging and multi-year approaches, they can strategically pick for each NDC implementation period the accounting approach which requires less effort to achieve a given NDC target. In aggregate, this can undermine environmental integrity. Accounting for ITMOs is most robust if all countries moved over time towards robustly defined multi-year targets or trajectories. The risk that countries may inflate multi-year trajectories could be addressed through international guidance and review on the establishment of such trajectories.