The projected impact of the inflation reduction act's climate provisions on cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes

Abstract

OnjectiveClimate change and environmental pollution have known health effects. The recently introduced inflation reduction act (IRA) by the United States government includes funding initiatives to curb climate change, and reduce environmental pollution, in line with the nationally determined contribution (NDC) plan (40–50 % reduction in greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions by 2030, as compared with 2005). The projected cardiovascular health benefits of the IRA driven climate actions to achieve the NDC goals are not known. MethodsWe used the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), a simulation algorithm based on systems dynamics modelling estimating the impact of various energy policies, to model the impact of achieving NDC targets in the United States on health outcomes by 2050. We further investigated race-specific impact on mortality (absolute and relative) by 2050.We estimated the projected reduction in six adverse health outcomes between 2022 and 2050: asthma attacks, non-fatal heart attacks, hospital admissions, respiratory symptoms and bronchitis, lost workdays, and deaths. ResultsAchievement of NDC targets by 2050 will result in 987,415 avoided asthma attacks, 41,565 avoided nonfatal heart attacks, 18,993 avoided hospital admissions, 1,493,010 avoided respiratory symptoms and bronchitis, 3,317,250 avoided lost workdays, and 32,659 avoided deaths (22,839 among white individuals, 4993 among Black individuals, 2801 among Asian individuals, and 2026 among other/multirace individuals). By 2050, minority racial groups had higher relative change in avoided deaths (white -0.74 %, Black -1.01 %, Asian -1.24 %, and other/multirace -1.75 %). Similarly, Hispanics/latinos higher relative reductions in deaths (-1.4 %) compared with non-Hispanic/Latinos (-0.7 %) by 2050. ConclusionThe IRA facilitated achievement of NDC GHG reduction goals by 2050 would result in substantial number of avoided adverse health outcomes and death. Racial and ethnic minorities are expected to have the largest relative reductions in deaths by 2050. The current report underscores the importance of continued climate action investment irrespective of political differences. The appreciation of this aspect of the IRA may be more important to overall preservation of health, beyond the reduction in medication costs.