The potential role of natural gas flaring in meeting greenhouse gas mitigation targets

Abstract

In this paper, we compare 2015 satellite-derived natural gas (gas) flaring data with the greenhouse gas reduction targets presented by those countries in their nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. Converting from flaring to utilization is an attractive option for reducing emissions. The analysis rates the potential role of reduction of gas flaring in meeting country-specific NDC targets. The analysis includes three categories of flaring: upstream in oil and gas production areas, downstream at refineries and transport facilities, and industrial (e.g., coal mines, landfills, water treatment plants, etc.). Upstream flaring dominates with 90.6% of all flaring. Global flaring represents less than 2% of the NDC reduction target. However, most gas flaring is concentrated in a limited set of countries, leaving the possibility that flaring reduction could contribute a sizeable portion of the NDC targets for specific countries. States that could fully meet their NDC targets through gas flaring reductions include: Yemen (240%), Algeria (197%), and Iraq (136%). Countries which could meet a substantial portion of their NDC targets with gas flaring reductions include: Gabon (94%), Algeria (48%), Venezuela (47%), Iran (34%), and Sudan (33%). On the other hand, several countries with large flared gas volumes could only meet a small portion of their NDC targets from gas flaring reductions, including the Russian Federation (2.4%) and the USA (0.1%). These findings may be useful in guiding national level efforts to meet NDC greenhouse gas reduction targets.