Emission Prediction, Global Stocktake, and NDC Update: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System

Abstract

This analysis proposes a prediction framework for estimating the probability of fulfilling nationally determined contributions (NDC). The framework using conventional empirical methodology (CO-STIRPAT, bootstrapping sampling, and system dynamics) is employed to project the paths of carbon emissions up to 2030. When the approach is applied to data in the Republic of Korea (ROK) presents that the effect of increasing the share of green energy alone may not be enough to achieve the NDC target by 2030. Additional efforts are required to adopt advanced climate technologies related to carbon intensity and energy efficiency, given the predicted economic conditions until 2030. Alternatively, it may be appropriate for the ROK to slow down the pace at which it raises its NDC. Our prediction framework can provide information that can motivate countries to reevaluate whether the ambition level of its target is compatible with the projected economic conditions and to set more reasonable goals in their subsequent NDCs.