Evaluating the enhancement of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of developing countries: an international support programme perspective

Abstract

ABSTRACT Enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is an important exercise to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement also recognizes that support to developing countries in this regard will help them to aim for higher climate ambition. The role of international support programmes in the NDC enhancement process is crucial but is not often covered in scientific research. Consequently, the factors driving a country’s decision to apply for NDC-related assistance have also not yet been fully explored. Acknowledging the research gap, this paper framed and tested multiple hypotheses to evaluate the impact of potential factors on the likelihood of a country applying for assistance to enhance its NDCs. For this, a logistic regression method was employed. Data from the two initiatives coordinating the technical and financial assistance worldwide, namely the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) and Climate Promise, were reviewed for this purpose. The CAEP program is financially supported by Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK. This study identifies the level of socio-economic development and the population’s exposure to air pollution as key factors which influence the likelihood of applying for assistance under CAEP and Climate Promise in developing countries. Further, the presence of democratic aspects in the form of governance may also influence this choice. Finally, this study discusses the results and associated policy implications for countries receiving assistance to enhance their NDCs. Key policy insights Developing countries with relatively low socio-economic development are more likely to apply for assistance to enhance their NDCs. The assistance is designed to help them to build capacities to develop and implement future climate policies. Air pollution and climate change issues are interconnected. Exposure to air pollution is a potential indicator that can influence the NDC enhancement process in developing countries. The assistance for enhancing NDCs will lead to NDC targets that are well-informed and are aligned with national and sub-national development priorities with realistic prospects of implementation. Climate vulnerability and net trade do not influence the decision-making process to apply for NDC enhancement assistance.