Nationally Determined Contributions Targets Research Articles

Thinking Outside the Box: Deepening Private Sector Investments in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions through Scenario Analysis

Private finance is seen as the financing panacea for resourcing the nationally determined contributions (NDC) submitted by 170 countries to the United Nations (UN) system. Mobilizing private investment is challenging, especially for vulnerable Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Fifteen PICs have already submitted ambitious NDC targets, in which transition towards a sustainable energy environment through investment in renewable energy (RE) is central. Presently, RE investments in PICs are primarily external donor financed, however, reliance on limited and uncertain external finance is unlikely to deliver the required energy transition. A future scenario methodology was used, with Fiji as a case-study; the analysis provided insight into alternative trajectories towards transition. Based on the scenario analysis, an NDC resource mobilization framework was developed. Conclusions suggest that donors should re-orientate their priorities from investments in RE installations, towards investments that upgrade the current RE readiness levels and promote a long-term perspective of “organically growing” the local private RE sector. Channeling resources to target initiatives that will endogenously grow the domestic private sector is critical for PICs, as well as other developing countries, which represent a majority of the NDCs, and which are projected to dominate global growth in energy demand for decades to come.

Sustainable development impacts of nationally determined contributions: assessing the case of mini-grids in Kenya

ABSTRACT As of today, access to electricity is still unavailable to 1.1 billion people in the world, half of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections suggest that this share will increase, leaving millions of people with limited development prospects. Kenya's nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the 2015 Paris Agreement includes a commitment to expand power supply, and in doing so, provide all its citizens with access to electricity. Access in rural areas, where the majority remains unconnected, is planned to be reached through different technologies. These include mini-grids, which are expected to bring multiple sustainable development benefits. However, comprehensive studies looking at synergies and trade-offs between environmental, social, and economic impacts of mini-grids are scarce. Analyzing the expected contribution of mini-grids to targets such as the NDC and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can provide evidence-based decision-support to policymakers, thus promoting well-designed and sustainable rural electrification policies. By using the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) Sustainable Development Methodology, this paper goes beyond the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts resulting from access to modern electricity, analyzing also other environmental and socio-economic implications of 146 solar PV mini grids under construction in Kenya. Using specific targets from the SDG framework, the paper presents a combined qualitative and quantitative analysis of the extent to which mini-grids can contribute to the implementation of Kenya's NDC and to sustainable development priorities. Key policy insights The deployment of mini-grids is expected to lower the GHG emissions of the villages currently without access to electricity by 71%. This contributes to 0.4% of the current NDC target for the power sector, in line with the capacity of the systems analyzed. This action is expected to also bring about positive impacts on electricity access, indoor air quality, healthcare, education and economic activities, which are found to contribute to 16 SDG targets. Apart from the economic investment required, possible negative impacts are associated with the electronic waste generated at the end-of-life of the mini-grids. Accounting for sustainable development impacts of policies can increase support among policymakers for climate action, and ultimately raise ambition.

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

ABSTRACTHydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories.Key policy insightsEcuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region.Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed.Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

Air Quality Improvement Co-benefits of Low-Carbon Pathways toward Well Below the 2 °C Climate Target in China.

This research links the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM system model of China (China TIMES) and the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model (GAINS) to assess the co-benefits of air quality improvement under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the well below 2 °C (WBD2) target. Results show that the industry sector and power sector are the key sources necessary to reduce air pollutant emissions, mainly due to the phasing out of fossil fuels. The electrification in the building sector will be another main source by which to decrease PM2.5 emissions. The adoption of various low-carbon constraints and further air pollutant control strategies will significantly alleviate the current air pollution problems in China by reducing the concentration and scope of the air pollutants and reducing the corresponding number of premature deaths. A stricter air pollutant control strategy will lead to increases in air pollutant control costs; however, the low-carbon targets will help reduce these costs in the long run. Compared to the current national policy, within the same air pollutant control strategy, the reduction of air pollutant control cost can cover the incremental CO2 mitigation cost under the NDC target, while this cannot be realized under the WBD2 target.

What can we learn about effectiveness of carbon reduction policies from interannual variability of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in East Asia?

Although most countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), there is a lack of understanding what policies are effective in terms of carbon emission reduction under the announced pledges. We use East Asia as a case study to estimate the importance of national environmental policies in terms of reduction in fossil fuel carbon emissions (FFCO2). We show that the flagship policies of China, Japan, South Korea and Mongolia in the 2010s were generally beneficial in terms of slowing down FFCO2 growth rates. When flagship polices were enacted, annual FFCO2 growth rate has either slowed down by 1% (South Korea), 5% (Mongolia), 8% (China) or even resulted in a decline (Japan) comparing to prior periods. We find that the 12th Five-Year Plan (12th FYP) of China had the strongest footprint in FFCO2 emission dynamics across East Asia in 2010s. The recent slowest rate of FFCO2 growth across East Asia (2011–2015) temporally corresponds to the 12th FYP. This regional pattern of FFCO2 dynamics is driven by decrements in annual growth of FFCO2, coal use and cement production of China (all ˜8% per yer decrease) during the 12th FYP. Using compound periodical growth of FFCO2 emissions, we provide two baseline projections of emission distribution in East Asia, by assuming that all policies are enacted (policy-on) or not (policy-off) in the future. The projections show that policies were beneficial since policy-on scenario results in 24%, 80%, 166% less FFCO2 emissions than in policy-off scenario in East Asia by 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively. This progress is yet insufficient for reaching NDC goals by 2030. Even in policy-on scenario in 2030, East Asian countries would either experience insufficient decline of FFCO2 like Japan (-13% of FFCO2 comparing to pledged -17%) or increase of FFCO2 like South Korea (11%) and Mongolia (4%) comparing to 2010 level. For China, due to lack of economy-independent goals, we were unable to assess NDC target compliance. We demonstrate that China will remain as the major FFCO2 emitter of EA in near future in any projection. For China, the highest emission cluster will remain at the Eastern Provinces with the strongest power generation demand. These provinces would be responsible for 43% and 52% of FFCO2 emissions in East Asia in policy-off and policy-on scenarios. We concluded that the current efforts of national flagship environmental policies are beneficial but not sufficient for reaching ambitious carbon reduction goals like Paris Agreement. This study once again underlined the necessity in the supranational framework that may control the carbon abatement goals in East Asia. Without the supranational framework, achievements in carbon emission reductions are strongly hindered by the socioeconomic environment and the regional (or sectoral) emphasis of carbon reduction activities within a national economy.

Carbon mitigation of China's building sector on city-level: Pathway and policy implications by a low-carbon province case study

Curbing the increasing carbon emissions from residential and commercial buildings would be of great importance for achieving China's NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) target. However, studies on city-level emission pathways and mitigation strategies aiming at building sector are still far from sufficient, especially for regions in Central China. Considering the large potential for further building energy demand increase within this area, this study focuses on Hubei, one of the first batch low-carbon pilot provinces to investigate the possibility of earlier emission peak and reduction potentials by prefecture-level city. When downscaling provincial energy use and emissions estimated from local government plans and academic research, statistical data was applied to exploring the relationship between building energy consumption and socioeconomic variables, then spatial allocation factor could be generated after combining with projections of grid-level GDP and population. Results show that by replacing coal and natural gas (NG) that are currently the main heating & cooking energy sources with more electricity and renewable energy, emissions from the building sector would peak around 2025, which is especially true for three major big cities with higher emission growth rate due to population and urban expansions. Moreover, when considering additional improvement on building energy efficiency, provincial reductions burden would be more evenly distributed among cities. It is implied that by formulating tiered mitigation policies for cities at various economic development levels, including decarbonization of energy structure and improvement of energy efficiency, more cities would peak their emissions from the building sector before 2030. This analytical framework innovatively create a multi-city platform for the simulation of building sector mitigation pathway to facilitate cities' low-carbon development.

Global Fossil-fuel Subsidy Reform and Paris Agreement

The recent downward trend in the international energy prices, combined with the rapid transition in the national energy mix and widespread efforts towards national energy market liberalization have challenged the mitigation potential of the global fossil-fuel subsidy reform. In this paper, we focus on 25 countries with large fossil-fuel consumption subsidies and estimate the impacts of fossil-fuel subsidy reform on achieving country-specific emissions reduction targets defined by the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under different oil price projections. Our results suggest that the elimination of the fossil-fuel consumption subsidies could be an efficient mechanism for meeting NDC targets for an important subset of countries, even if only leading to global emissions reduction of between 1.8-3.2% in 2030 depending on the oil price scenario. Out of 17 countries with binding unconditional NDC targets, nine overreach their 2030 commitments under high oil price scenario and six under low global oil prices. Furthermore, eleven countries reach at least 50% of their NDC reduction targets following subsidies elimination under low global oil price path.

Large hydropower, decarbonisation and climate change uncertainty: Modelling power sector pathways for Ecuador

Hydropower plays a critical role in global, South American and Ecuadorian energy policy and for achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-term climatic changes may affect the role of hydropower in meeting energy and climate policy objectives. The effects of climate change on runoff availability for hydropower generation are largely uncertain. This paper uses climate change scenarios derived from a large ensemble of Global Circulation Models as input for an energy system optimisation model (TIMES-EC) to examine least-cost options for the hydropower-dominated Ecuadorian power system in the period to 2050. This is done in the context of three policy cases in order to assess trade-offs between power system configuration, emissions and costs. The results show that in the long-term hydropower will remain as one of the most cost-effective and low emission technologies in the Ecuadorian power sector. However, constraints on deployment and uncertainty around climate change impacts could hinder its ability to contribute to the fulfilment of NDC targets, as well as create uncertainty around long-term power system costs. Strategies to hedge against these risks will likely require that hydropower expansion be complemented by alternative sources, namely incremental shares of thermoelectric generation with natural gas, biomass and geothermal energy.

Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.

Effect of carbon tax on the industrial competitiveness of Chongqing, China

As one of the most cost-effective means of carbon emission reduction, carbon tax has attracted considerable attention from economists and international organizations. This study applied a two-region dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to discover how differentiated carbon taxes among regions would affect the competitiveness of local industries, taking an inland city—Chongqing in China—as an example. The results show that when carbon tax is implemented, it can effectively decrease carbon emissions and intensity, and achieve China's Nationally Determined Contribution target by 2030. It will, however, also have varied effects on the macroeconomy, with GDP losses of 1.54% to 2.5%. Meanwhile, industrial competitiveness in Chongqing will be affected heterogeneously. When Chongqing's tax level is higher than the rest of China, agriculture, textile, food, transport equipment, machinery, and electronics sectors will benefit from increased output activity. Meanwhile, paper, chemicals, nonmetal production, and metal smelting will suffer output losses. Such varied sectoral effects can be explained by two effects—price effect and scale effect—in three markets: domestic, interprovincial, and foreign. Finally, based on China's practical situation, this paper makes policy suggestions that could mitigate the negative effects of carbon tax.

Regional impacts of launching national carbon emissions trading market: A case study of Shanghai

This study investigates the impacts of launching a national carbon trade market through the IMED|CGE (Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development|Computable General Equilibrium) model, between Shanghai and the Rest of China (ROC). Five scenarios are established by considering China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, including a baseline scenario (BaU scenario), a carbon cap on ETS participating sectors scenario (CAPsec scenario), a carbon cap on Shanghai and ROC regions scenario (CAPreg scenario), a carbon cap scenario with local carbon emissions trading among ETS participating sectors (ETsec scenario) and a carbon cap scenario with inter-regional carbon emissions trading (ETreg scenario). The results under the ETreg scenario predict a carbon price of 164.64 USD/tCO2 and a total carbon trade volume of 189.91 Mt by 2030. The metal smelting sector will be the largest seller of emissions quotas in Shanghai, whereas the power generation sector will be the largest buyer. Due to its higher carbon mitigation cost and increasing autonomous carbon intensity, the aviation sector will face more challenges to reduce emissions among ETS participating sectors in Shanghai. The results indicate that launching a national carbon trade market could generate both economic and environmental benefits and help China achieve its NDC targets.

An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India

The goal of limiting global temperature rise to “well below” 2 °C has been reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement on climate change at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). Almost all countries submitted their decarbonization targets in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and India did as well. India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of national GDP in 2030 by 33–35% compared to 2005. This paper analyzes how India’s NDC commitments compare with emission trajectories consistent with well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization goals. A top-down computable general equilibrium model is used for the analysis. Our analysis shows that there are significant emission gaps between NDC and global climate stabilization targets in 2030. The energy system requires significant changes, mostly relying on renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The mitigation costs would increase if India delays its abatement efforts and is locked into NDC pathways till 2030. India’s GHG emissions would peak 10 years earlier under 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization compared to the 2 °C goal. The results imply that India would need financial and technological support from developed countries to achieve emissions reductions aligned with the global long-term goal.

CARBON TAX FOR ACHIEVING CHINA’S NDC: SIMULATIONS OF SOME DESIGN FEATURES USING A CGE MODEL

China has set a goal of reducing its CO2 intensity of GDP by 60–65% from the 2005 level in 2030 as its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Climate Change Agreement. While the government is considering series of market and nonmarket measures to achieve its target, this study assesses the economic consequences if the target were to meet through a market mechanism, carbon tax. We used a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China for the analysis. The study shows that the level of carbon tax to achieve the NDC target would be different depending on its design features. An increasing carbon tax that starts at a small rate in 2015 and rises to a level to meet the NDC target in 2030 would cause smaller GDP loss than the carbon tax with a constant rate would do. The GDP loss due to the carbon tax would be smaller when the tax revenue is utilized to cut existing distortionary taxes than when it is transferred to households as a lump-sum rebate.

Low carbon scenarios and policies for the power sector in Botswana

ABSTRACTThe Government of Botswana has pledged a nationally determined contribution (NDC) as a commitment to the Paris Agreement. For the power sector, the NDC states that the government expects renewable energy (RE) to meet 25% of peak electricity demand by 2030. However, due to high initial cost of RE technologies, the government plans to maintain a coal-based power system in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine Botswana’s national plan from an economic perspective, using scenario and cost analysis, to explore the possibility of the power sector’s low carbon transition in the light of Botswana’s NDC. Five scenarios are designed to reflect a range of investment cost changes of RE technologies. While most scenarios only achieve 19% (P3, P4 and P5) and 54% (P6) of the NDC’s power sector target, the P7 scenario far exceeds the goal by achieving 188% of the NDC target. Furthermore, as the difference of levelized cost of electricity among the scenarios is minimal, the P7 scenario is the most attractive pathway for the government. Even for other scenarios, the government should still deploy the suggested capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) as it is both economically and socially beneficial in the long term. However, in these cases, the government’s political will to meet the NDC’s power sector target and to promote the solar PV industry will be critical in designing future power sector policies.Key policy insightsModel results show coal as the cheapest resource for electricity generation in Botswana up to 2030, but the cost competitiveness of solar photovoltaic (PV) against coal will continue to increase over time.It is economically and socially beneficial to adjust the current national plan and substitute some share of coal with solar PV in the future energy mix.Government support is critical in achieving the power sector’s NDC target, as cost reduction of solar PV alone does not guarantee success.Encouraging independent power producers (IPP) with financial support mechanisms would be a suitable business model for developing the renewable energy industry.

The Lancet Countdown on PM2·5 pollution-related health impacts of China's projected carbon dioxide mitigation in the electric power generation sector under the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

Except for comparing the implementation costs of the Paris Agreement with potential health benefits at the national levels, previous studies have not explored the health impacts of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by countries and in regional details. In this Lancet Countdown study, we aimed to estimate and monetise the health benefits of China's NDCs in the electric power generation sector, and then compare them with the implementation costs, both at the national and regional levels. In this modelling study, we linked the Multi-regional model for Energy Supply system and their Environmental ImpaCts, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China model, the offline-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and the Integrated Health Impact Assessment model with a time scope from 2010 to 2050. We calculated the PM2·5 concentrations and compared the health impacts and implementation costs between two scenarios that reflect CO2 and air pollutant emissions-the reference (REF) scenario (no climate policy) and the NDC scenario (100% realisation of NDC targets: CO2 emission intensity needs to be about 40% below 2010 emissions by 2030 [roughly 35% below 2030 emissions in REF], and about 90% below 2010 emissions by 2050 [roughly 96% below 2050 emissions in REF]). Under a comparatively optimistic health benefits valuation condition, at the national level, 18-62% of implementation costs could be covered by the health benefits in 2030. In 2050, the overall health benefits would substantially increase to 3-9 times of the implementation costs. However, northwest China would require the highest implementation costs and will also have more premature deaths because of a more carbon-intensive energy structure than business as usual. By 2030, people in northwest China (especially in Gansu, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang provinces) would need to bear worse air quality, and 10 083 (95% CI 3419-16 138) more premature deaths annually. This undesirable situation would diminish by about 2050. A solution that assumes no growth in air pollutant emissions in 2030 at the regional level is technically feasible, but would not be cost-effective. Our results suggest that cost-benefit analysis of climate policy that omits regional air pollution could greatly underestimate benefits. A compensation mechanism for inter-regional interests (including financial, technological, and knowledge support) should be established for regions that give up their human health benefits for the sake of the whole nation to realise the climate change targets. National Natural Science Foundation of China and Cyrus Tang Foundation.

The potential role of natural gas flaring in meeting greenhouse gas mitigation targets

In this paper, we compare 2015 satellite-derived natural gas (gas) flaring data with the greenhouse gas reduction targets presented by those countries in their nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. Converting from flaring to utilization is an attractive option for reducing emissions. The analysis rates the potential role of reduction of gas flaring in meeting country-specific NDC targets. The analysis includes three categories of flaring: upstream in oil and gas production areas, downstream at refineries and transport facilities, and industrial (e.g., coal mines, landfills, water treatment plants, etc.). Upstream flaring dominates with 90.6% of all flaring. Global flaring represents less than 2% of the NDC reduction target. However, most gas flaring is concentrated in a limited set of countries, leaving the possibility that flaring reduction could contribute a sizeable portion of the NDC targets for specific countries. States that could fully meet their NDC targets through gas flaring reductions include: Yemen (240%), Algeria (197%), and Iraq (136%). Countries which could meet a substantial portion of their NDC targets with gas flaring reductions include: Gabon (94%), Algeria (48%), Venezuela (47%), Iran (34%), and Sudan (33%). On the other hand, several countries with large flared gas volumes could only meet a small portion of their NDC targets from gas flaring reductions, including the Russian Federation (2.4%) and the USA (0.1%). These findings may be useful in guiding national level efforts to meet NDC greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%–31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%–41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed intensification and manure management to mitigate GHG emissions and to increase milk yields at sectoral-level and at a high spatial resolution for an SSA country. The scientific evidence is tailored to support actual policy and decision-making processes at the national level, such as ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’. Linking feed intensification and manure management strategies with spatially-explicit estimates of mitigation and food production to national targets may help the sector to access climate financing while contributing to food security.

Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment

ABSTRACTBrazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO2 emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.Key policy insightsLow-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.

Challenges for Pacific Small Island Developing States in achieving their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)

The international community directs significant funding towards Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) for climate change allowing ambitious target setting. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Fiji targets 81% of renewable energy share in grid electricity supply by 2020 and 100% by 2030. A model is developed to determine possible energy transitions to achieve those targets. The model uses installed capacities, capacity factors and electricity generated for each technology and calculates direct CO2 emissions, the Global Warming Potential and the Levelised Cost of Electricity. Eight energy mixes were assessed for electricity supply adequacy and the ability to achieve the NDC. The results demonstrate few realistic energy future options; a sole focus just on renewable energy generation is unlikely to be successful. Specifically, meeting the 2020 and 2030 NDC targets would require the installation of significant new renewable energy capacity accompanied by phasing out of fossil fuel plants, addition of baseload technology (e.g. geothermal, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion), technological improvements (e.g. capacity factor) and minimizing electricity demand through energy savings and efficiency. All those determinants mean that there is a vital need for improved energy modelling and strategic planning, if NDCs are to be achieved in Fiji and other PSIDS.

Co-benefit of carbon mitigation on resource use in China

On one hand, natural resources and energy provide the basis for life on earth, but waste and emissions are produced during their throughput on the other hand. China, as the most populous country and an emerging economic powerhouse, has taken on the challenge of hitting peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030. Pursuing resource co-benefits from carbon mitigation is an effective approach for China on the road to achieving the 2030 goal. In this study, we combine the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the economy-wide material flow accounts or analysis (EW-MFA) method to estimate China's future CO2 emissions and resource consumption, and their co-benefit effect. Three scenarios are analyzed: business as usual (BaU), nationally determined contributions (NDC), and the scenario of achieving the 2-degree target (2deg). We find that both the NDC and 2deg targets can be achieved by 2030 without a significant compromise in economic growth. With the effect of carbon mitigation, China's resource consumption would rise by a factor of 1.7 (BaU), 1.6 (NDC), and 1.5 (2deg) during 2012–2030, and the reduction in co-benefits of metal ores, nonmetallic minerals, and fossil fuels would be 0.6 billion tons and 1.4 billion tons, 0.8 billion tons and 2.0 billion tons, and 2.6 billion tons and 4.6 billion tons for NDC and 2deg, respectively. Sectoral disparity indicates that sectors with high emissions and resource consumption include traditional heavy industrial sectors and energy-related sectors, for which additional mitigation policies should be employed, not only because they offer the most co-benefit effects, but they also have the least cost.