LEAP Model Research Articles

Driving Forces Analysis of Power Consumption in Beijing Based on LMDI Decomposition Method and LEAP Model

With increasing pressure on resources and environment, sustainable development is becoming more and more important. As the largest energy consumer in the world, China needs to take measures to achieve energy transformation more urgently both from supply and demand side, which is of great significance for sustainable development and achieving carbon emissions target. In recent years, the capital city Beijing has also made great efforts to promote the replacement of electric energy in residential heating, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption. In order to explore driving forces of total power consumption in Beijing`s final demand sectors, this paper decomposes the factors into industrial electricity substitution effect, industrial energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect, economic scale effect, population structure effect, residential electricity substitution effect, residential energy intensity effect and population size effect based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. The decomposition results show that the industrial electricity substitution effect made the largest contribution to increase power consumption in Beijing’s final energy consumption sector, followed by economic scale effect, residential energy intensity effect, population scale effect and residential electricity substitution effect, and other`s effect does the opposite. Finally, seven different scenarios are set up to forecast the future power consumption of Beijing`s final sectors based on the long-term energy alternative planning model (LEAP), which reveals the impact of energy efficiency improvement and electricity substitution polices on electricity consumption in Beijing`s final energy consumption sectors.

Analysis and projection of energy consumption in Ecuador: Energy efficiency policies in the transportation sector

A forecast model for the Ecuador energy sector was elaborated, by using LEAP model, this study aims to analyze the behavior of the energy matrix depending on energy forecast and efficiency policy scenarios, applying a bottom-up analysis and considering the latest politics/infrastructure planning background in Ecuador. The model and considerations proposed will result in a final energy consumption of 158 million BOE in 2030, in which the transportation sector is the main energy consumer. Regarding Ecuador energy planning, of which a critical point is the hydroelectricity available due to the commissioning of new hydro power plants, estimated at 63,513 Gwh in 2030, this value is 3.25 times that generated in 2010. In addition, the energy saving of 15 million BOE is forecast, as well as the reduction in GHG emission related to that saving due to the energy efficiency program PEC, which replaces LPG stoves with induction stoves in Ecuadorian households. Results point out that energy efficiency policies for the transportation sector would reduce oil products (2.97% in the high growth scenario), which could be reallocated to the industrial sector. Finally, another critical point is the rapid decline in the oil self-sufficiency, estimated at 15 years counted from 2030.

Analysis and Modeling of Energy Demand System in Iran’s Buildings and the Industry

Abstract In this study, the demand of the Iran’s energy carriers is analyzed and modeled for the country’s largest consumer, buildings and related industries, in the status quo and future perspective. To this objective, the building sector is divided into two sections: household section (residential buildings) and services (business-office and service buildings) according to the ISIC classification that each of these sections is divided into sub-sections. In addition, building-related industries include some non-metallic minerals and basic metals industries. Regarding to scenario-based energy planning helps to increase the understanding of different probabilities in the future. The future outlook for the system is modeled with the horizon of 2035 with the LEAP modeling tool in the “reference” scenario, indicating the sustainability of the existing energy system in the future. The results of modeling indicate an increasing demand for energy as expected that energy demand carriers in buildings and related industries from 559.8 million barrels in 2014 reach up to 1040.6 million barrels of crude oil equivalents in 2035. Therefore, in order to reduce energy consumption, solutions are modeled and analyzed according to the scenarios for “Improvement of energy consumption in buildings and related industries”, then the greenhouse gas emissions and their environmental effects are investigated.

Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China

Cities consume more than 67% of global primary energy, the production of which results in approximately three-quarters of global CO2 emissions, exacerbating the global warming trend and related extreme weather events and natural disasters. Therefore, it is critical for cities to use existing and new sources of energy efficiently and effectively. This paper introduces a methodology that can combine sustainable energy planning with economic analysis, proposing a form of sustainable urban energy planning that could reduce energy consumption with the minimum economic cost. Taking a postindustrial city (Shenzhen, China) as an example, this paper defines four scenarios by which to analyze future projections of energy generation and consumption from 2015 to 2030 based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model. Also developed are Sankey maps for the energy flow from the energy supply to demand sectors for different scenarios. The results show that energy efficiency improvement and energy structure upgrade policies implemented in Shenzhen would have a significant impact on its energy system. Energy consumption is projected to increase steadily up to 2030 under each scenario except for the Peak Scenario, but with different growth rates. Electricity generation in all scenarios is supposed to expand by 2030 and sustainable electricity (such as distributed photovoltaic power, waste-to-energy power, and Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power) will play an important role in the Energy structure upgrade and Peak scenarios.

The Environmental Impacts and Economic Benefits on Comprehensively Promoting Alternative Fuel Buses in China: Life-Cycle and Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP Model

With the continuous development of urban public transportation, the harmful GHG emissions and pollutants generated by itself and the consequent issues such as the losses of residents’ health, economic value and residents’ welfare have become the focus of social attention. In order to study the impacts of promoting new energy vehicles on public transportation pollution mitigation and residents’ health benefits, this paper adopts the LEAP model to build some scenarios that fulfill different development needs to quantitatively analyze the ownership of new energy buses, the reduction of pollutants and the losses of residents’ health welfare. It is concluded that promoting new energy buses comprehensively can significantly reduce the emissions of atmospheric pollutants and the economic losses of residents’ health, but cannot fully realize the targets of greenhouse gas reduction under Life Cycle Analysis.

Medium-to-long-term coupled strategies for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Beijing (China)

China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to peak by 2030 and China makes great efforts to reach the peak as soon as possible. As the ‘frontier’ of Chinese Reform and Opening-up, Beijing has set a goal in 13th Five-Year Plan that local GHG emissions will peak by 2020. This research analyzes the situations of socio-economic development and energy consumption in Beijing and establishes LEAP-Beijing model for the medium-to-long-term prediction of GHG emissions. The energy demand module in LEAP model has six branches, including civilian sector, agriculture, industry, construction industry, transportation and service sector. The analysis and evaluation of their potentials to cut emissions and the difficulties to implement can help Beijing determine the development priority and take right measures to develop a low-carbon society. Four scenarios are set in LEAP-Beijing model, including Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU), Low-Carbon scenario (LC), Enhanced Low-Carbon scenario (ELC) and Peak-Reaching scenario (PR). These scenarios are applied to analyze the total amount of GHG emissions in Beijing and how the peak-reaching time varies due to the impacts of different policies.

Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application

Colombia represents that group of developing countries that is facing new challenges in energy demand due to climatic phenomena, technological changes and the growing use of renewable energy. This article presents a joint research work between the Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética - UPME (In Spanish) and the University of Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano to analyze the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions produced in Colombia. The study was conducted using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software, through the construction of a model based on the year 2015 and with two future scenarios (positive and negative). The LEAP model is extrapolated until the years 2030 and 2050 to obtain the future predictions of the country's economic sectors: tertiary sector, industrial sector, housing sector and transport sector. The negative scenario is characterized by low economic growth and few incentives for technological change, which translates into low growth in energy efficiency, as well as a low substitution of petroleum-based energy. In contrast, in the positive scenario the economic growth of the sectors is greater and the technological substitution is accelerated which allows higher efficiency levels in the final use of energy and a greater migration towards cleaner technologies.

Evaluation of Air Pollution Management Policy in Seoul City's Road Transportation Sector Using the LEAP Model

Evaluation of Air Pollution Management Policy in Seoul City's Road Transportation Sector Using the LEAP Model

Investigating carbon emission abatement long-term plan with the aim of energy system modeling; case study of Iran

Increasing vehicles usage, as a promising solution for environmental issues, might have unexpected implications, since it entails some changes in different sectors and scales in energy system. In this respect, this research aims at investigating the long-term impacts of vehicles deployment on Iran's energy system. Accordingly, Iran's energy system was analyzed by LEAP model in demand, supply, and transmission sides for all fuels and two different scenarios. Existing policies with limited optimistic assumptions was investigated as reference scenario. Alternatively, the other scenario, electric scenario, is gradually for substitution of vehicles for 15% gasoline cars until 2030 and renewable energy sources have more contribution in electricity production. Finally, carbon dioxide emission was predicted and compared in both scenarios for 25 years later. Results indicate that with electric scenario at 2030, Iran would have by 9.2 % and 1.9% less Carbon Dioxide emissions in comparison to the reference scenario in the transportation sector and total system, respectively.

Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis

Pakistan is facing electricity crises owing to lack of integrated energy planning, reliance on imported fuels for power generation, and poor governance. This situation has challenged governments for over a decade to address these crises. However, despite various conformist planning and policy initiatives, the balance between demand and supply of electricity is yet to be achieved. In this study, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan's LEAP modeling framework for the period 2015–2050. Following demand forecast, four supply side scenarios; Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) are enacted considering resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO2 emissions. The model results estimate the demand forecast of 1706.3 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 8.35%, which is 19 times higher than the base year demand. On the supply side, RET scenario, although capital-intensive earlier in the modeling period, is found to be the sustainable electricity generation path followed by EEC scenario with the lower demand of 1373.2 TWh and minimum Net Present Value (NPV) at an aggregate discount rate of 6%. Conclusion section of the paper provides the recommendations devised from this study results.

Analysis of Household Energy Efficiency in developing countries using the Long Energy Alternative Planning System (Case Study: Ghana)

Ghana continues to face periodic energy crisis particularly in the power sector. The dominant household energy fuels in Ghanaare mainly biomass, oil products and hydropower. Efficient and wise use of available resources would consequently reduce theeffects and scarcity of these energy resources and make energy more accessible to many households in future. The objective ofthis paper is to use the LEAP model to develop three scenaria to depict a business as usual, assumed lower (10%) and higher(30%) energy savings on household energy intensities by 2030. Key factors relevant in the analysis included current and futurehousehold size, economic growth and saturation of household energy appliances. The results of this research shows a 30%reduction in total household energy consumption thus, higher energy saving scenario which would save about 1,552 ktoe andreduce GHG emission by 1,077.2 ktCO2 equivalent as compared to the baseline scenario by 2030. This scenario would reducehealth risk associated with biomass use and save households income on fuel. Effective implementation of policies and lawsbanning inefficient household electrical devices such as refrigerators, air-conditioners and lighting bulbs is necessary. In addition,awareness on energy savings on improved cooking stoves and automatic lighting control systems in buildings is beneficial inachieving this target. Meanwhile programs and policies in Ghana should aim at barriers in renewable energy technologies toensure its significance in the household energy mix.

Analysis of Causality Relationship Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions to Economic Growth based on the LEAP Model Case Study of Energy Consumption in Indonesia 2010-2025)

This study discusses scenarios and analyzes the causal relationship of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to economic growth in Indonesia period 2010-2025. The modeling scenario is divided into 6 sections, namely BAU scenario, High scenario, Low scenario, High-Low scenario, Low-High scenario and Policy scenario. The result of scenario data is processed by performing statistical data modeling and econometric period 2010-2025. The research method used interpolation method and causality testing method. The tools are used in this research is LEAP and EViews. LEAP is used for energy modeling as well as CO2 emissions and EViews is used to manage data, analyze econometrics and statistics. The results of this study show that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions at 6 scenario indicate fluctuated competitive growth. This study proves that only 1 scenario has direct causality relationship that is only energy consumption which statistically significant influence economic growth in Policy scenario. For economic growth and CO2 emissions there are 4 scenarios that have direct causality (BAU, High, High -Low, Low-High scenario), 1 scenario has no causality relationship (Low scenario) and 1 scenario has two -way causality relationship (Policy scenario).

The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of Iran's electricity sector

The electricity sector has a key role in Iran's socio-economic development. Its contribution to carbon dioxide emissions is 30.2%. Therefore, it is the biggest environmental pollution source in Iran. In this study, the current circumstance of electricity supply and demand in Iran is investigated to find the possible trends for future power generation to predict and answer the questions about the amount of future electricity demand. Electricity demand is based on economics and environmental conditions. In this regard, econometrics method is applied to obtain the electricity demand model in three scenarios until 2040. LEAP model would simulate the supply side for the next three decades in business as usual, low-carbon and renewable energy scenarios based on various possible policies. The results show that the share of fossil fuels from total electricity production remains over 90% and the carbon dioxide emission reaches 668.2 million tonnes in the BAU scenario in 2040. If the policies for the development of renewable technologies are adopted, the share of fossil resources, carbon dioxide emissions decrease to 33% and 294.6 million tonnes respectively.

Trade-offs between electrification and climate change mitigation: An analysis of the Java-Bali power system in Indonesia

The power sector in many developing countries face challenges of a fast-rising electricity demand in urban areas and an urgency of improved electricity access in rural areas. In the context of climate change, these development needs are challenged by the vital goal of CO2 mitigation. This paper investigates plausible trade-offs between electrification and CO2 mitigation in a developing country context, taking Indonesia as a case study. Aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the Government of Indonesia has announced its voluntary pledge to reduce 29% of its GHGs emissions against the business as usual scenario by 2030. 11% of this should be attained by the energy sector. We incorporate the Indonesian Paris pledge into the modelling of capacity expansion of the Java-Bali power system, which is the largest power system in Indonesia. The LEAP model is used for the analysis in this study. Firstly, we validate the LEAP model using historical data of the national electricity system. Secondly, we develop and analyse four scenarios of the Java-Bali power system expansion from the base year 2015 through to 2030. These include a reference scenario (REF) to reflect a continuation of the present energy mix (REF), then a shift from coal to natural gas (NGS) (natural gas), followed by an expansion of renewable energy (REN) and, finally, the least-cost option (OPT). The shift to natural gas decreases future CO2 emissions by 38.2million ton, helping to achieve the CO2 mitigation target committed to. Likewise, an escalation of renewable energy development in the Java-Bali islands cuts the projected CO2 emissions by 38.9million ton and, thus, assures meeting the target. The least-cost scenario attains the targeted emission reduction, but at 33% and 52% lower additional costs compared to NGS and REN, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of CO2 mitigation scenarios range from 14.9 to 41.8US$/tCO2e.

Perencanaan Kebijakan dan Strategi Pengelolaan Energi Indragiri Hilir Menggunakan Model Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) dalam Skenario Business as Usual (BAU)

The energy was a key component for a local development and also was a sustainable strategy that impacts the community prosperity. The availability of energy was an important matter even it was a parameter for supporting local development success. Therefore, energy managing and planning must be taken seriously by the government in common things, this research aims to reform energy strategy and planning policy by using the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) model on BAU scenario. The result of this research was an Indragiri Hilir’s energy need projection in 2025 also policy, strategy, and instrumental policy, effort, institution and energy development program that support energy managing policy. Keywords: Energy, Energy Plan, LEAP Model, BAU Skenario

Analysis of GHG Reduction Scenarios on Building using the LEAP Model - Seoul Main Customs Building Demonstration Project -

Analysis of GHG Reduction Scenarios on Building using the LEAP Model - Seoul Main Customs Building Demonstration Project -

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Scenario analysis for low carbon development in Nigeria

AbstractThis study explores a scenario-based analysis of future energy consumption and GHG emissions for Nigeria between 2010 and 2040 using the LEAP model. The impact of different energy policies are analysed for the Nigerian energy system by considering four scenarios: The reference (REF) scenario, the low-carbon moderate (LCM) scenario, the low-carbon advanced (LCA) scenario, and the green optimistic (GO) scenario. By considering aggressive energy policies and strategies from LCM to LCA, and even more aggressive options in the GO scenario, we find that under the REF scenario energy demand is expected to reach 3,075 PJ and a corresponding increase in GHG emissions of 201.2 Mt Co2e by 2040. More aggressive policy intervention by the Nigerian government, as in the GO scenario, would lead to a decrease in energy demand (2,249 PJ) and GHG emissions (124.4 Mt Co2e) in 2040. A cost-benefit analysis is also carried out in the study.

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario.

Analysis of GHG Reduction Potential on Road Transportation Sector using the LEAP Model - Low Carbon Car Collaboration Fund, Fuel Efficiency, Improving Driving Behavior -

This study the efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction of ‘low carbon car collaboration fund’ and its alternative ‘control of average fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas’, and ‘improving driving behavior’ were analyzed by using LEAP, long term energy analysis model.BR Total 4 scenarios were set, baseline scenario, without energy-saving activity, ‘low carbon car collaboration fund’ scenario, ‘fuel efficiency improving scenario’, and ‘improving driving behavior’ scenario. The contents of analysis were forecast of energy demand by scenario and application as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emission volume, and the period taken for analysis was every 1 year during 2015∼2030.BR Baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emission volume in 2015 would be 7,935,697 M/T and 13,081,986 M/T in 2030, increased 64.8%. The analysis result was average annual increase rate of 3.4%. The expected average annual increase rate of other scenarios was, ‘low carbon car collaboration fund’ scenario 1.7%, ‘fuel efficiency improving’ scenario 3.0%. and ‘improving driving behavior’ scenario 3.4%. and these were each 1.7%, 0.3%. 0.3% reduce from baseline scenario. The largest reduction was ‘low carbon car collaboration fund’ scenario, and there after were ‘fuel efficiency improving scenario’, and ‘improving driving behavior’ scenario.

The “cost of not doing” energy planning: The Spanish energy bubble

The Spanish power generation sector is facing dire problems: generation overcapacity, various tariff hikes over recent years, uncertainty over the financial viability of many power plants and a regulatory framework that lacks stability. This situation is the consequence of both poor energy policies and the economic crisis in the late 2000s and early 2010s. In this paper we analyze the following three points from an energy planning perspective: how the country has arrived at this situation; whether other alternatives would have been possible through adequate planning; and the quantitative benefits that would have been accrued from such planning. We do so by developing a LEAP model, and building three scenarios that allow to segregate the costs of the economic crisis from the costs of the lack of planning.We find that appropriate energy planning could have reduced investments in the Spanish power sector by 2010€28.6 billion without compromising on performance in terms of sustainability or energy security, while improving affordability.The main causes of these surplus investments were two supply bubbles: those of gas combined cycles and of solar technologies. The results of this work highlight the value of rigorous, quantitative energy planning, and the high costs of not doing it.