LEAP Model Research Articles

Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies toward Carbon Neutrality

China’s road transport sector plays an important role in meeting carbon early peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study examines how the sector might be decarbonized by modelling five scenarios using the LEAP model. This study aims to inform China road transport sector’s emission reduction target, identification of cost-effective measures that deliver on the sectoral emission reduction targets, facilitate low-carbon investments, and identification of decarbonization measures with air pollution reduction co-benefits.

WISCO’s Low-carbon Transformation Based On LEAP And Scenario Analysis

The paper takes Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “ WISCO “) energy consumption and carbon emissions as the research object, and analyzes WISCO’s carbon emissions. Through the construction of WISCO’s Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (hereinafter referred to as LEAP) prediction model for energy consumption and carbon emissions, three scenarios have been set up: a baseline scenario, an energy efficiency improvement scenario, and an energy structure change scenario to measure WISCO’s carbon emissions. Based on the results of the LEAP model, this article puts forward the following recommendations for WISCO’s low-carbon transformation. WISCO must strictly control steel output.WISCO should introduce electric furnaces to increase the proportion of electric furnace steel. While ensuring the supply of scrap steel resources, WISCO ought to use scrap steel efficiently. In addition, introduction of hydrogen direct reduction iron technology is also crucial to WISCO in a planned way.

Colombia’s GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario: Complete Representation of the Energy and Non-Energy Sectors in LEAP

The signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must submit their updated Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat every five years. In Colombia, this activity was historically carried out with a wide set of diverse non-interconnected sector-specific models. Given the complexity of GHG emissions reporting and the evaluation of mitigation actions on a national scale, the need for a centralized platform was evident. Such approach would allow the integration and analysis of potential interactions among sectors, as well as to guarantee the homogeneity of assumptions and input parameters. In this paper, we describe the construction of an integrated bottom-up LEAP model tailored to the Colombian case, which covers all IPCC sectors. An integrated model facilitates capturing synergies and intersectoral interactions within the national GHG emissions system. Hence, policies addressing one sector and influencing others are identified and correctly assessed. Thus, 44 mitigation policies and mitigation actions were included in the model, in this way, identifying the sectors directly and being indirectly affected by them. The mitigation scenario developed in this paper reaches a reduction of 28% of GHG emissions compared with the reference scenario. The importance of including non-energy sectors is evident in the Colombian case, as GHG emission reductions are mainly driven by AFOLU. The first section describes the GHG emissions context in Colombia. Next, we describe the model structure, main input parameters, assumptions, considerations, and used LEAP functionalities. Results are presented from a GHG emissions accounting and energy demand perspective. The model allows for the correct estimate of the scope and potential of mitigation actions by considering indirect, unintended emissions reductions in all IPCC categories, as well as synergies with all mitigation actions included in the mitigation scenario. Moreover, the structure of the model is suitable for testing potential emission trajectories, facilitating its adoption by official entities and its application in climate policymaking.

Demand side management for electricity in Iran: cost and emission analysis using LEAP modeling framework

Demand side management for electricity in Iran: cost and emission analysis using LEAP modeling framework

Cost-benefit analysis of gasoline demand control policies and its greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits

Policy-making about gasoline in Iran has always been challenging. A LEAP model was developed through the below steps: identifying the components of the supply and demand for gasoline in Iran, gathering needed data energy-environmental modeling, designing the structure of gasoline demand and modeling the gasoline demand in Iran, planning the refining and supplying the petroleum products and entering the model data, deigning the reference scenario and validation of the model, planning, modeling, and running of the possible gasoline demand reduction scenarios in Iran. In this study, different non-price and price measures to decrease the gasoline demand in Iran are assessed based on cost-benefit analysis. With the current outlook, the price does not seem to be rising easily. Implementing each of these two scenarios will reduce greenhouse gases, respectively, by 16.93 and 24.96 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2035 compared to the baseline. With every ¢ 1 increase per cubic meter of actual natural gas price, the Net Present Value (NPV) and cost of GHG reduction under the scenario of simultaneous implementation of price measures is expected to reduce by respectively US$ 0.04 billion and US$ 0.36 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, respectively.

Two-Tier Synergic Governance of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Air Pollution in China's Megacity, Shenzhen: Impact Evaluation and Policy Implication.

Making a cost-effective governance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution is of great importance for megacities to pursue a sustainable future. To achieve this, the present study advocates megacities to implement a two-tier synergic governance system consisting of both synergic governance between GHG and air pollutant emission reductions and between megacities and their surrounding regions. Based on the LEAP model and WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ simulation platform, this study found that climate governance of China's megacity, Shenzhen, could synergistically contribute to decreasing urban annual PM2.5 concentration by 5.6% in 2030. Using synergic governance with surrounding regions could further help cap and then quickly decrease the megacity's GHG emissions and lower its PM2.5 concentrations by an additional 11.8%. The results demonstrated the substantial effects of transdepartment and transregional synergic governance on Shenzhen's GHG emission reduction and air quality improvement. Furthermore, this study suggested road transportation and power generation and supply as the two priority fields for wide-ranging megacities to promote two-tier synergic governance, highlighting an integration of improved urban electrification with high-efficiency electricity use and a renewable-based power supply.

Baseline Model for Electricity Generation Expansion Planning for The Philippines: A Leap Model Application

Philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies and most populated countries globally, greatly affecting its energy demand. The increase in demand leads to an increase in the electricity generation sector's capacity to maintain the supply-demand balance. Thus, this may lead to power shortage, high generation costs, and increased greenhouse gas emissions without proper energy planning. This study aims to create a Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)-based Baseline Model for the Philippines' generation expansion planning. The model will serve as a tool for the government and energy planners to develop a long-term generation expansion planning model. The model simulates the technological, economic and environmental aspect of the existing Philippine power generation system that can be used as a baseline for developing a Business-As-Usual Scenario and Alternative Scenario models to assess different energy policy pathways. The developed LEAP model following an independent multi-regional and national scale structure that is based on the Philippine grid and off-grid based regions showed an accurate result with the actual data. The model was able to replicate the actual power generation through the set-up of basic parameters. Development of Philippine LEAP structure; and the establishment of the demand, transformation, and resources module’s structure are based on the set of data input parameters. The baseline model developed can be used for continuing studies such as impact evaluation of energy policy for long term power generation expansion planning.

Estimation of industrial emissions in a Latin American megacity under power matrix scenarios projected to the year 2050 implementing the LEAP model

The current global economic model of industrialization has historically searched for indefinite growth without considering environmental impacts. Dependence on fossil fuels has caused degradation of the global air quality and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions increase. Colombia and specifically Bogotá is no exception to this problem, which is causing increasing concern about the negative impacts on its inhabitants. Due to the limitation of investigations contemplating the concentrations of pollutants produced by industries in the city, this study was developed in order to estimate the emissions of air pollutants from fixed sources in Bogotá D.C., projected to the year 2050 using the LEAP software. Under three scenarios, we estimated the variation of emissions for different assumptions of industrial energy matrixes, giving proposals for emissions reduction in the city. The results of the study show that for a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the emissions of PM10, NOx, SO2, CO2, CO and VOC’s in 2050 would increase by 31.39%, 2.50%, 21.42%, 26.22%, 35.04% and 41.84% compared to 2014 in the different industrial sectors analysed. On the other hand, the scenarios proposed for the reduction of emissions have a different behavior. In the Carbon Reduction (RC) scenario, PM10 and SO2 emissions in 2050 would decrease by 23.10% and 27.89% respectively, although CO2, NOx, CO and VOC’s would increase by 38.39%, 1.55%, 14.94% and 41.73%. Finally, the Mitigation scenario (MIT) showed a reduction in emissions of PM10, NOx, SO2, CO2, CO and VOC’s by 62.83%, 59.46%, 79.20%, 49.15%, 47.94% and 45.96% during the studied period. Additionally, an economic analysis was included for the proposed scenarios to be implemented. This study allows to conclude that the industries of Bogotá should begin to consider an increase in the fraction of electric energy in their productive activities to reduce emissions. This would stand as long as the power providers have implemented renewable technologies in their generation processes.

Negotiating the Cultural Terrain in Transforming Classrooms—The LEAP MODEL

This study recentres the sociocultural in culturally transforming pedagogic settings whilst foregrounding culturally responsive teaching (CRT). Through a protracted anthropological excavation, teachers’ experiences in a culturally diverse integrated high school were explored and interpreted vis-à-vis tenets and precepts of CRT. Findings from observation and interviews indicate that the pedagogic settings as structured by the teachers were not attendant to the aspirations of CRT and teacher practices were not reflective of dispositions of CRT. Teachers professed negative experiences of the pedagogic setting, demonstrated and professed limited knowledge of the cultural being of their learners. The findings highlighted the need for micro-context cultural excavations to remedy socioculturally detached teaching. Cognisant of the emergent need for a learning tool, the LEAP model is proposed premised on centering the humanistic world of the learners and the inherent currency in their culture for progressive teaching and learning engagements.

An assessment of GHG mitigation potential by electricity expansion planning using LEAP model

An assessment of GHG mitigation potential by electricity expansion planning using LEAP model

An assessment of GHG mitigation potential by electricity expansion planning using LEAP model

The main objective of this paper is to trim down the global warming potential (GWP) which is emitted from various sectors such as domestic, commercial, industry, transportation and agriculture. In ...

Investigations of electricity expansion environmental planning using LEAP model for sustainability

Investigations of electricity expansion environmental planning using LEAP model for sustainability

Investigations of electricity expansion environmental planning using LEAP model for sustainability

Electricity expansion planning is finding an optimal solution for the power system planning problem in which installation of new generation units satisfies both technical and financial constraints....

A Parameter Classification Prediction Method Applied to LEAP Model of Electric Energy Substitution Forecasting

As an energy substitution analysis & prediction tool with flexible parameter structure, LEAP model can provide strong support and guidance for guiding the electricity substitution work. On the basis of accurate parameters in LEAP model, this paper proposes a specific parameter classification prediction method. First, a targeted data structure is established, and the parameters that need to be input into the LEAP model are classified into general parameters and scenario parameters according to their degree of certainty. Secondly, predict the general parameters using improved GM(1,1) model by modifying background values and initial conditions. Thirdly, a Grey-Monte Carlo model was proposed to predict scenario parameters and their occurrence probability. Finally, the correctness of the parameter classification and the parameter prediction model are verified through example analysis, and it is proved that the co-application of them improves the accuracy of the parameters and further improves the accuracy of the electric energy substitution prediction.

How can Azerbaijan meet its Paris Agreement commitments: assessing the effectiveness of climate change-related energy policy options using LEAP modeling

Azerbaijan has committed to cut GHG emissions by 35% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement. By applying LEAP, a well-regarded forecasting model based on inventories defined under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), GHG emissions projections are modeled in three scenarios: a without measures (WOM) scenario or business-as-usual, which assumes no change to current behavior, a with existing measures (WEM) scenario, which takes into account currently planned measures in Azerbaijan, and an EU policy scenario, which mirrors the existing mitigation measures of the European Union. The WOM scenario of total GHG emissions from the energy sector indicates that from 2010 to 2030, total emissions will increase by 67% in Azerbaijan. In the WEM scenario, forecasted GHG emissions are only 29.7% lower than the base year and still above the nation's Paris Agreement commitment. In the EU policy scenario, projected GHG emissions are 37.2% lower than the base year. Therefore, current mitigation measures are insufficient for Azerbaijan to meet its commitments to the Paris Agreement, and stronger measures than currently planned are necessary. Because of its status as a developing nation with limited resources, Azerbaijan must have funding from developed nations promised under the Paris Agreement to transition towards a less carbon-heavy economy.

Strategy on coal consumption and GHGs emission analysis based on the LEAP model: a case study

ABSTRACT This paper aims to determine the prediction of coal consumption, greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, and availability of single supply during the tenure of (2013–2035) with the help of Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) in Pakistan. Reference Scenario (REF) based setup is implemented on Pakistan’s power expansion policies, and the one nonrenewable energy resource. The results concluded that local coal has a major impact on environmental disaster because CO2 emissions with the use of local coal are more as compared to the reference and imported coal scenario. CO2 emissions are estimated to be 348% during the study which is a huge volume in the more local (MRL) scenario as compared to the reference scenario. This would be a substantial escalation in emissions due to the addition of coal-fired power plants in the country. According to the more imported (MRI) scenario, CO2 emissions were 230% lower than the reference scenario due to the better quality of exotic coal since the imported coal is bituminous that’s why it has high carbon contents. Moreover, environmental organizations recommended that Pakistan’s government should focus on the other alternative energy resources as a substitute for local coal because Pakistan’s coal is the lignite with low carbon contents; hence, the government would well-thought-out the other resources in the future energy mix.

Impact Analysis of Supply-side Structural Reform on Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in Chengdu Based on Leap Model

In order to clarify the socio-economic pollution of the global atmospheric environment, as far as Chengdu is concerned, there is a lack of strategic scenario analysis of long-term changes in industrial sulfur dioxide emissions. Therefore, this article builds on Chengdu based on existing research. Based on the social development background from 2015 to 2025, the Leap model is used to evaluate the long-term impact of supply-side reforms on the sulfur dioxide emissions and emissions intensity of the Chengdu industry. This paper builds a Leap-Chengdu industry sulfur dioxide emission model, which predicts different scenarios and different scenarios. Different energy consumption between sectors, so as to predict the sulfur dioxide emissions and emissions intensity between different industrial sectors under different scenarios in Chengdu.

Scenarios evaluation on the greenhouse gases emission reduction potential in Iran's thermal power plants based on the LEAP model.

Over the past few years, the pace of fossil fuel consumption has witnessed an accelerating trend across the world which has been really noticeable especially for the power generation sector. With regard to its global importance, the environment must be also preserved and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as well as environmental costs need to be moderated. Given the urgency of energy preservation and environmental issues, the process of electricity generation should be evaluated. Accordingly, elimination of conditions along with prediction of energy consumption and pollutant emissions have been performed through energy simulation and modeling software tools, e.g., Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The energy consumption in thermal power plants for 2035 is estimated to be 209.7, 153.5, and 132.0 Bcm respectively for Reference (REF), Efficiency based on 5-Year National Development Plan (E5P), and Efficiency similar to UK (EUK) scenarios using efficiency improvement scenario of thermal power plants in Iran. GHG emissions for 2035 are thus predicted by 456.8 MtCO2-eq for the REF scenario, and 332.6 and 285.1 MtCO2-eq for the E5P and the EUK ones, respectively. Environmental costs for electricity generation system will also diminish via applying scenarios in this sector and its least amount, that is, US$835.8 million is related to the EUK scenario. Accomplishing goals such as better preservation of fossil resources and the environment will be consequently facilitated through improved efficiency and effectiveness of consumption of energy resources. To meet the objectives of environmental preservation, it is suggested to completely implement development plans and also make attempts to promote the technology of thermal power plants in Iran similar to that in developed countries. This study also compares the findings with those reported in recently published investigations.

Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: Analysis of a long-term power system expansion

Reductions in carbon emissions have been a focus of the power sector. However, the sector itself is vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. Extreme weather events and gradual changes in climate variables can affect the reliability, cost, and environmental impacts of the energy supply. This paper analyzed the interplay between CO2 mitigation attempts and adaptations to climate change in the power sector using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) model. This paper presented a novel methodology to integrate both CO2 mitigation goals and the impacts of climate change into simulations of a power system expansion. The impacts on electricity supply and demand were quantified, based on historical climate-related impacts revealed during fieldwork and existing literature. The quantified effects, together with climate mitigation targets, were then integrated into the LEAP modeling architecture. The results showed a substantial alteration in technology composition and an increase in installed capacities driven by the joint climate mitigation–adaptation efforts when compared with the scenario without mitigation and adaptation (reference). Furthermore, an increase in CO2 emissions was observed under the mitigation-adaptation scenario compared with the mitigation only scenario, indicating that the power sector’s adaptations for climate change are likely to hinder CO2 mitigation efforts. Therefore, a nexus between mitigation and adaptation should be exploited in the policy development for a low-carbon and climate-resilient power system.

Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application

The total energy demand in the transport sector represented 48.80% of the total consumption in Ecuador throughout 2016, where 89.87% corresponded to the road transport sector. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the future behavior of this sector and assess the economic and environmental measures towards sustainable development. Consequently, this study analyzed: (1) the total energy demand for each vehicle class and fuel type; (2) the GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and air pollutants NOx and PM10; and (3) the cost attributed to the fuel demand, between 2016 and 2035. For this, four alternative demand scenarios were designed: BAU: Business As Usual; EOM: Energy Optimization and Mitigation; AF: Alternative Fuels; and SM: Sustainable Mobility using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system. After analysis, the EOM, AF, and SM scenarios have advantages relative to BAU, where SM particularly stands out. The results show that SM compared to BAU, contributes with a 12.14% (141,226 kBOE) decrease of the total energy demand, and the economic savings for this fuel demand is of 14.22% (26,720 MUSD). Moreover, global NOx and PM10 emissions decreased by 14.91% and 13.78%, respectively. Additionally, accumulated GHG emissions decreased by 13.49% due to the improvement of the fuel quality for the vehicles that mainly consume liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and electricity.