Abstract
A forecast model for the Ecuador energy sector was elaborated, by using LEAP model, this study aims to analyze the behavior of the energy matrix depending on energy forecast and efficiency policy scenarios, applying a bottom-up analysis and considering the latest politics/infrastructure planning background in Ecuador. The model and considerations proposed will result in a final energy consumption of 158 million BOE in 2030, in which the transportation sector is the main energy consumer. Regarding Ecuador energy planning, of which a critical point is the hydroelectricity available due to the commissioning of new hydro power plants, estimated at 63,513 Gwh in 2030, this value is 3.25 times that generated in 2010. In addition, the energy saving of 15 million BOE is forecast, as well as the reduction in GHG emission related to that saving due to the energy efficiency program PEC, which replaces LPG stoves with induction stoves in Ecuadorian households. Results point out that energy efficiency policies for the transportation sector would reduce oil products (2.97% in the high growth scenario), which could be reallocated to the industrial sector. Finally, another critical point is the rapid decline in the oil self-sufficiency, estimated at 15 years counted from 2030.
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