Land Expansion Research Articles

Study on Wild Edible Plant Used by Shinasha Ethnic Community at Metekel Zone, Northwest Ethiopia

Wild edible plants are an essential source of supplementary foods in many parts of Ethiopia. The aims of this study were to record and document wild edible plants used by shinasha ethnic community in Metekele Zone Northwestern Ethiopia. The Field surveys were conducted from Jun to Dec, 2022. Semi-structured interview, direct observation, focus group discussion, guided fled walks, and market surveys were used to collect data. A total of 120 informants were participated in interviewed. Descriptive statistical was made to analyze the data using SPSS version.20. A total 46 wild edible plants belonging to 38 genera and 30 families were recorded. Family Moraceae were the most popular edible plant. Trees were the dominant life forms (36.9%) and ripe fruits (58.6%) recorded plants par used in study area. The majority of (14 specie) were collected from natural forest followed by riverine banks habitat (12species). The majority of wild edible plants are mainly harvested and consumed during autumn followed by summer season. Based on the market surveys eight wild edible plants were sold and can provide additional income to the local community in study districts. The wild edible plants were consumed as raw. Agricultural land expansion, fuel wood collection, cutting for construction, uncontrolled fire and overgrazing were the major threats to the wild edible plants. Hence, the finding recommend that the community that practice in on-site and off-site conservation, public awareness raising, which requires participation the government's on sustainable forest management practices approach would help to protect wild edible plant in study area.

Modeling the impact of land use land cover change on the estimation of soil loss and sediment export using InVEST model at the Rib watershed of Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Information on soil loss and sediment export is essential to identify vulnerable area of soil erosion and to inform conservation interventions in a given watershed. The goal of this study was to analyze the changes in soil loss and sediment exports in the Rib watershed of Ethiopia's Upper Blue Nile Basin. The study used spatial data by using a variety of data sources, including topographic maps, soil maps, meteorological data, and satellite images. Cultivated land, forests, grazing areas, shrubs, water bodies, and settlements were all identified in the study watershed. Soil loss and sediment export were calculated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (In-VEST) model. The model was calibrated using the sediment yield data gathered in the sample watersheds. The results reveal that while the equivalent sediment export grew from 6.54 t/ha/year to 11.05 t/ha/year in 2000 and 2020, respectively, the average soil loss increased from 22.37 t/ha/year in 2000 to 33.38 t/ha/year in 2020. The largest rate of soil erosion was seen on cultivated land, which increased from 40.86 t/ha/year in 2000 to 53.9 t/ha/year in 2020. This relates to the expansion of the agricultural land. The soil loss and sediment export rates in sub-watersheds three (SW-3) and five (SW-5) were the highest, at 61.80 and 63.48 t/ha/year and 18.75 and 19.35 t/ha/year, respectively. The least amount of soil loss occurs in sub-watershed twelve (SW-12) (2.56 t/ha/year). This is because SW-12 is situated in the watershed's lower reaches fogera plain parts of the watershed experiencing less erosion. The result concluded that prioritizing those sub-watersheds is important for informed decision-making processes.

Geographical Types and Driving Mechanisms of Rural Hollowing-Out in the Yellow River Basin

Understanding the regional variations and mechanisms of rural hollowing-out in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is crucial to guiding regional rural revitalization. However, further quantitative evaluation and analysis are essential to address the issue of rural hollowing-out caused by the decrease in rural population and expansion of residential land in the YRB at different spatio-temporal scales. Based on China’s census data and residential areas extracted from remote sensing images, the rural hollowing-out in the YRB is classified into five types: smart development type (SDT), human–-land recession type (HRT), population loss type (PLT), land expansion type (LET), and human–land–vacant waste type (HLW). Then, the influential features shaping the spatial diversity of rural hollowing-out types are examined, and the feature importance values at different spatio-temporal scales are assessed using the XGBoost model. The results of rural hollowing-out in the YBR indicate that (1) the geographical types of rural hollowing-out in the YRB are dominated by the HRT type and show significant heterogeneity and distribution at different spatio-temporal scales. At different time stages, the number of counties dominated by HRT in lower reaches accounts for 57% of the total counties, whereas the number of counties in the middle reaches is only 37%. Compared to the rural hollowing-out results from 2000 to 2010, the number of counties dominated by PLT and HLW from 2010 to 2020 in the middle reaches increased by 19% and 16%, respectively. (2) Precipitation had a positive effect on the variability of the rural hollowing-out distribution results based on the feature importance values, whereas agricultural productivity had a negative effect and exhibited a decreasing trend. In the entire study area, economic non-agriculturalization had a negative impact, but the topographic relief was positively correlated with the rural hollowing-out results of regional areas, and the intensity of its effect showed an increased trend from 2000 to 2020. (3) The evaluation results in the entire study area show that the main functional type and the distance from provincial capitals are the most important factors affecting rural hollowing out. Compared to other factors, the level of non-agricultural economic development has a greater impact on the spatio-temporal differentiation of rural hollowing types in different Yellow River basins. Given the significant effect of non-agricultural economic development in the evaluation of regional rural hollowing-out, it can provide methodological and indicator references for the evaluation of rural hollowing-out in different regions.

Association mining of coastline change and land use patterns to enhance conservation

Coastal zones, as interfaces between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, possess great ecological and economic value but are environmentally fragile. This research provides a new perspective for studying development and change patterns in coastal zones, offering insights for land planning and contributing to the ecological preservation and sustainable development of coastal areas. We utilized Landsat TM and OLI sensor imagery (from the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020) to extract coastline and land use information from the coastal zone of Shandong Province. Through the establishment of association mining models between coastline changes and land use patterns, the relationships between spatial layout changes and development processes in different geographical locations are revealed. In the initial stage, weak expansion and moderate changes in the coastline corresponded to units with lower land development intensity sequences. In the intermediate stage, with increasing coastline expansion and intense changes, the sequence of land development intensity was extremely strong > strong > moderate > weak from the sea to the land. This type of association was mostly distributed in the Laizhou Bay salt field and coastal port areas and was mostly focused on aquaculture and port trade, causing “strong” and “extremely strong” units of regional land development intensity. In the later stage, as coastline expansion slowed, the use of ports and docks caused the development intensity of the surrounding land to fluctuate. Farming, fishing, salt field and port construction in the coastal zone of Shandong Province were the major forms of land expansion and change. The association rules between coastline expansion or erosion and coastal development intensity revealed the impact of coastline changes on the spatial pattern from sea to land, which is important for planning layouts, optimizing industrial structures, and maximizing socioeconomic and environmental benefits in coastal areas.

Understanding habitat isolation in the context of construction land expansion using an ecological network approach

ContextThe impact of construction land expansion on regional landscape sustainability received significant attention, but the habitat isolation caused by such expansion across the urban-rural continuum calls for a closer examination.ObjectiveThis study aims to use the ecological network approach to assess the isolation effect imposed by urban areas and rural settlements on habitat patches in the Nanjing Metropolitan Area during 2000, 2010, and 2020.MethodsWe first extracted the habitat patches by applying morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), then identified the ecological networks based on the comprehensive resistance surface and circuit theory. Finally, we constructed two indices, the isolation effect index (IEI) and isolation degree (ID), and evaluated the differential contributions of urban areas and rural settlements to habitat isolation.ResultsOur results showed a total of 129 habitat patches within our study area. These patches were linked by 188, 186, and 183 ecological corridors in the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Further analysis revealed that habitat patches were strongly isolated by the expansion of construction land and increasing human activities. Remarkably, both urban areas and rural settlements played pivotal roles in exacerbating this isolation, with urban areas showing a striking surge in their isolation impact, while rural settlements continued to be the predominant driver of habitat isolation.ConclusionsSustainable landscape planning should consider how land uses may cause habitat isolation. Our study utilizes the ecological network approach to evaluate habitat isolation and introduces applicable indicators for estimating the isolation effects attributed to construction land expansion. Our findings hold significant implications for informing landscape planning and shaping ecological conservation policies.

Identification of ecological restoration areas based on the ecological safety security assessment of wetland-hydrological ecological corridors: A case study of the Han River Basin in China

In recent years, wetland resources have been threatened by human activities such as mining, agriculture and construction land expansion, and problems such as shrinkage of wetland area and deterioration of water quality have emerged, impeding the exchange of materials between wetlands and reducing the ecological function of wetlands. Water systems are important channels for material exchange between wetland sources, and evaluating the ecological safety of wetland–water system ecological corridors can aid in efficiently delineating ecological restoration areas and identifying ecological problems. In this paper, the ecological safety of wetland–hydrological ecological corridors in the Han River Basin was evaluated, and ecological restoration areas were delineated by adopting the method of “identification of source areas - construction of resistance surfaces - extraction of wetland–hydrological ecological corridors” with the watershed as the research unit. The study identified wetland–hydrological ecological corridors with a total length of 7,589.77 km and delineated 31 sections of wetland–hydrological ecological corridors with a total length of 1,076 km; these corridors were located in the Hanzhong Canyon area, tributaries of the Danjiang River and Tangbai River, and tributaries of the main streams below Danjiangkou. Among them, 8 sections of the primary corridor account for 27 %, 14 sections of the secondary corridor account for 33 %, and 9 sections of the tertiary corridor account for 39 %. This study breaks administrative boundaries, emphasizes the correlation between wetlands and water bodies, highlights the integrity of ecosystems, and establishes a multidimensional systematic restoration methodology of “points, lines and surfaces”, which provides guidelines for the long-term planning of ecological corridors of wetlands and water systems in large-scale regions.

Analysis of change process of NPP dominated by human activities in Northwest Hubei, China, from 2000 to 2020.

Clarifying the spatial distribution of the impact of different human disturbance activities on the net primary productivity (NPP) in regions with single climatic conditions is of considerable importance to ecological protection. Time-series NPP from 2000 to 2020 was simulated in Northwest Hubei, China, and the effects of the climate and human activities on the NPP changes were separated. Research results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the NPP change with an area of 10,166.63 km2 in Northwest Hubei is influenced by climate and human activities. Among them, human activities account for as high as 84.53%. From 2000 to 2020, the NPP in Northwest Hubei showed a slight upward trend at a rate of 1.61g C m-2year-1. The significantly increased NPP accounted for 21.4% of the total, which was mainly distributed in north of Northwest Hubei. And the farming of cultivated land led to the increase of NPP in west as well as the reduced human distribution in cultivated land, which was scattered in forests. Only 6.67% of the total area demonstrated a significantly decreased NPP, which was distributed mainly in the central affected by the expansion of rural-urban land and change of broad-leaved forests to shrubs and in southeast regions of Northwest Hubei caused by the increase in potential evapotranspiration. This study refined the driving factors of spatial heterogeneity of NPP changes in Northwest Hubei, which is conducive to rational planning of terrestrial ecosystem protection measures.

A Simulation of the Spatial Expansion Process of Shrinking Cities Based on the Concept of Smart Shrinkage: A Case Study of the City of Baishan

The coexistence of urban expansion and shrinkage in China has become increasingly apparent; therefore, the current strategic model of growth-oriented urban planning as the top-level design needs to be adjusted. This paper focuses on the city of Baishan, which is a typical shrinking city in China, and explores the feasibility of implementing the concept of smart shrinkage planning in shrinking cities in China by constructing a coupled PLUS-SD model. The results demonstrate the following conclusions: (1) The overall simulation of the coupled PLUS-SD model is superior to that of the PLUS model. In Baishan, the areas with the most changes in construction land will be located at the edges of the landforms by 2030. (2) Using the traditional planning scenario would only exacerbate the rate of construction land expansion in Baishan, deepening the incongruity between the city’s population and construction land. (3) The smart shrinkage scenario will require strict control of the scale of construction land and optimization of the structure of the urban construction land, which would push the city in the direction of healthy and sustainable development. (4) The concept of smart shrinkage planning is a scientific and feasible plan for realizing the efficient and sustainable use of construction land in shrinking cities.

Effect of watershed characteristics on river flow for the case of two watersheds, Megech and Gumaro, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Land degradation is a series of problems in Ethiopia’s highlands, particularly in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin reflected in the form of soil erosion and reduce soil fertility from time to time. The effect of watershed characteristics on the river flow of those watersheds was evaluated by distributing a physically based hydrological model known as the soil and water assessment tool model. The model was calibrated for the river flow from 1992 to 2006 and validated for the period from 2007 to 2014. The performance of the model was evaluated based on performance rating criteria, coefficient of determination, and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency on monthly based value, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient was greater than 0.6 and 0.5 for all scenarios on both watersheds, respectively. The land-use land-cover change scenario, the climate characteristics, and the slope change scenario was developed, from those analyses, it was found that has been a substantial decrease or increase in forest land, shrubland, grassland, and expansion of agricultural land. The mean annual streamflow of 2010 LULC decreased by 1.44% for 2010 from 2003 LULC and 5.23% for 2018 from 2010. Because of reduced cultivated land from 2010 up to 2018 and increased grassland and plantation in the Megech watershed and 2010 LULC decreased by 0.9% for 2010 from 2003 LULC and 2.04% in 2018 from 2010. This distributed physically based hydrological model has been applied for the evaluation of physical catchment characteristics with significant differences which was Cropland for Megech and Gumaro watersheds which were 67.28% and 61.5%, respectively, for the 2003 LULC, 64.94% Megech, and 58.89% for Gumaro watershed for 2010LULC and 51.95% for Megech and 42.12% for Gumaro watershed, similarly, Eutric Cambisols were covering large areas for both watersheds.

Research on regional terrestrial carbon storage based on the pattern-process-function

The evolution of ecological pattern caused by human activities has altered the terrestrial carbon cycle process, and it is important to explore systematic approaches to study the relationship between ecological pattern and carbon sequestration function within regions. From the new perspective of the pattern-process-function in landscape ecology, this study couples NPP-InVEST, GeoDa, MOP-PLUS, and GeoDetector models to construct a conceptual cascade framework of “Land use pattern-Evolution process-Carbon sequestration function” (LEC), which provides a new epistemology and methodology for increasing carbon sink and mitigating down carbon source. Based on natural and socioeconomic elements, the use of LEC is illustrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, the land use pattern, evolution process, and carbon sequestration function from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed, the trends of carbon storage in 2030 under four development scenarios were simulated, the driving mechanism of carbon sequestration function was studied, and the carbon sequestration function enhancement strategy based on the LEC was proposed. The results indicate that the land use pattern determines the spatial distribution and aggregation of carbon sequestration function, and the evolution process forms a low-carbon zone with construction land expansion, leading to a reduction in carbon storage. However, the ecological protection simulation scenario increases the high-carbon zone, which effectively slows down the decreasing trend of carbon sequestration function. Based on a comprehensive understanding of LEC, regional carbon storage can be enhanced through scientific allocation, priority protection, and efficient utilization of land use pattern. LEC contributes to the sustainability of complex natural-social-economic systems and provides an innovative approach for regional landscape pattern optimization policy formulation and carbon sequestration function enhancement.

Assessment of the impact of COP decisions on biodiversity and ecosystems

The relevance of the study is conditioned by the fact that any anthropogenic load or economic activity has an impact on the functioning of natural ecosystems, as demonstrated by the widespread practice of oil palm expansion. The purpose of this study was to develop methods for assessing strategies that play an important role in strengthening measures to protect biodiversity and ecosystems in Africa and Latin America, considering the impact of the decisions of the United Nations Climate Change Conference. The study considers the materials of various international organisations on the problems of biodiversity related to climate crises, inefficient territorial planning, expansion of land for growing crops that deplete the soil or reduce the area of land needed to accommodate biota. The paper presents a sequence of steps to assess the impact of the decisions of the United Nations Climate Change Conference on biodiversity and ecosystems. The aspects of conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems in the context of the expansion of palm plantations are substantiated. The indicators of the ratio between the available land area for palm oil cultivation and the area threatening to reduce the biodiversity of Africa are analysed. Environmental solutions are substantiated, which correspond to the provisions of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in the context of biodiversity and ecosystem conservation, taking into account the expansion of large areas for palm plantations in Colombia. The practical significance of this study lies in the development of a methodology for the economic and mathematical assessment of the decisions of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which affect the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems, and are the driving mechanism in creating an effective control system for tracking oil palm plantations, territorial development with the least environmental losses and high economic efficiency

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in Karst Regions of Central Guizhou Province：Taking Puding County as An Example

Regional land use change is the main cause for the change in karst carbon storage. It is important to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trends of carbon storage in typical counties in central Guizhou's karst region， such as Puding County， to improve regional carbon storage， optimize land ecological security patterns， and promote low-carbon sustainable urban development. The PLUS-InVEST model was coupled， based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction， the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Puding County from 1973 to 2020 were inverted， and the spatial pattern evolution of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in 2060 were simulated and predicted. The results showed： ① from 1973 to 2020， the overall carbon storage in Puding County increased by 6.61×105 t， showing an upward trend. The spatial distribution showed a significant increase in the northeastern and southwestern parts of Puding County and a significant decrease in the south-central parts. The change was due to the increase in carbon storage in dryland to shrubland and forest land and the decrease in carbon storage in areas where paddy fields are converted to construction land. ② The land use change in Puding County in the historical period was mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of construction land and the increased fluctuation of the proportion of forest land and shrub forest land， and the change in land use in different scenarios projected in 2060 retained the change characteristics of the historical period. ③ In 2060， the carbon storage in Puding County under the scenarios of natural evolution， ecological protection， and economic development increased by 2.93×105， 5.40×105， and 1.11×105 t， respectively， compared with that in 2020. Of these， the increase in ecological protection scenarios was the most significant， with the transfer of dryland to shrubland being the main reason for the increase in regional carbon sequestration capacity. These results can serve as a scientific reference for land use management decisions and the formulation of emission reduction and sink increase policies in Puding County. The future land use planning of karst areas should be guided by the goal of "carbon neutrality" in 2060， take appropriate ecological protection measures， strictly control the rapid expansion of construction land to paddy fields， optimize the land use structure， and effectively improve the level of regional carbon storage.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case from Guiyang, China

The significance of ecosystem services and land use for human well-being and sustainable development cannot be understated. Scientifically assessing the ecosystem service value (ESV) and studying the relationship between land use change and the ESV can provide a theoretical groundwork for land use planning and ecological administration in Guiyang. In this study, gradient analysis was utilized to explore the changes of ESV at district level of Guiyang. Then, the synergistic relationship and the strength of the interaction between land use intensity (LUI) and ESV were explored by using a coupled coordination model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Furthermore, polynomial fitting was carried out for the LUI index and its linked coordination index in relation to the ESV. The results showed that (1) the areas of farmland, forest, grassland, and unused land in Guiyang decreased from 2000 to 2020, while the areas of construction land and water body increased conversely. (2) The expansion of the construction land and water body was the main cause of the ESV change pattern in Guiyang, which first moved downward and then upward. (3) The ESV and LUI had a low overall coupling coordination degree (CCD). Spatial autocorrelation studies showed that low–to–low aggregation and high–to–high aggregation dominated the spatial patterns of essential regions. (4) The LUI and CCD indexes exhibited an inverted U-shaped curve correlation.

Integrated assessment of future climate and land use changes on urban floods: A Markov chain and PCSWMM-based approach for Hyderabad case study.

This research examines the impact of climate change and urban expansion on urban drainage systems in Hyderabad (Zone-XII, Zone-IV&V), India. It employs a Markov chain-based framework to simulate future climate and land changes. Integrated 1D-2D PCSWMM model is used to assess the hazards posed by these changes. Present and future extreme rainfall event(s) (1-10 days) are simulated to determine maximum flooding hours, valuable for resilience studies. Future rainfall events are simulated under four SSP scenarios using CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs): EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM-1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM-1-2-LR. The Markov Chain Precipitation Generator (MCPG) model downscales grid-scale precipitation data to station-scale. Future urban land expansion is simulated using the Markov Chain-Cellular Automata (MC-CA) model with Terrset. MCPG model is validated using performance measures, and it showed most increased rainfall events under EC-Earth3-Veg. The MC-CA model obtained a Kappa coefficient of 0.89, indicating an increase in imperviousness in future LULC; 6.1% of vegetation and 29.06% of barren land in 2022 will be urbanized by 2075. A significant increase in extreme flood hazard areas for the 1-day and above 7-day events in the both zones is observed from the PCSWMM results. The study highlighted the importance of Markov chains and event duration in flood hazard assessments.

Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of the Ecological Environment and Its Response to Land Use Change in the Chushandian Reservoir Basin

Conducting ecological monitoring assessments and revealing the effects of driving factors are crucial for enhancing ecological safety and promoting sustainable development. Taking the Chushandian Reservoir basin as the research object, this paper employed the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI), constructed based on remote sensing data, to monitor and assess the ecological environment of the study area from 1990 to 2021, and predicted its future development trend through the Hurst index. On this basis, we integrated land use data to elucidate the response of the ecological environment to human activities. The results show that: (1) The mutation test indicates that selecting 1990, 2004, 2008, 2013, and 2021 as the study time nodes can comprehensively reflect the spatio-temporal information regarding changes in ecological quality in the study area. Specifically, both 1990 and 2021 exhibit higher ecological quality ratings, while 2008 has the lowest ecological quality rating. The spatial distribution of ecological quality is strongly clustered, with high–high clustering and low–low clustering dominating. (2) The overall trend of ecological quality in the study area appears in a pattern of initial decline followed by subsequent improvement. From 1990 to 2004, the degraded area constituted the largest proportion, accounting for 87.82%. After 2008, the quality of the ecological environment began to rebound. Between 2008 and 2013, the proportion of regions with improved ecological conditions was 57.91%, and from 2013 to 2021, 46.74% of the regions showed improvement. (3) In the research area, 36.70% of the regions exhibit a trend of sustainable stability into the future, representing the highest proportion. Approximately 34.3% of the areas demonstrate a trend of sustainable improvement, while the regions exhibiting sustainable degradation account for only 5.72%. While the ecological environment is demonstrating a positive overall developmental trend, it is crucial to stay vigilant regarding areas of ongoing degradation and implement appropriate protective measures. (4) Land use change significantly impacts the ecological environment, with the expansion of land for urban build up causing some ecological deterioration, while the later expansion of forest improves ecological quality. The results provide theoretical approaches and a foundation for decision-making in the ecological management of the Chushandian Reservoir basin.

The impact of gradient expansion of urban–rural construction land on landscape fragmentation in typical mountain cities, China

ABSTRACT Hillside urbanization currently provides the most economical solution for urban expansion. However, limited attention was paid to the characteristics, processes, and patterns of gradient expansion of construction land (GEC) in mountainous regions and its impact on landscape fragmentation. This study suggests an approach to identify GEC in mountainous regions and quantify its spatial impact on the fragmentation of cultivated land and ecological land. The results are as follows: (1) GEC can be categorized as ‘unidirectional’, ‘bidirectional’, or ‘multidirectional’ expansion, influenced by the proportion of topography in different directions of the cities. The magnitude of expansion is correlated with the city's economic level. (2) GEC leads to an increasing trend of landscape fragmentation, with nearly a three-fold increase in arable land fragmentation and a two-fold increase in ecological land fragmentation within the focus areas over 20 years. (3) The impact of GEC on the fragmentation of cultivated and ecological land diminishes with distance, primarily influencing within 3 km. The results of this study provide a methodological reference for identifying key areas and characteristics of GEC, and serve as a theoretical basis for reducing landscape ecological risks in the process of mountainous urban development and promoting sustainable development.

Construction land reduction projects as a pathway to sustainability: an empirical analysis of risks factors in China.

Construction land reduction (CLR) is an effective instrument to improve intensive land use, restrict the expansion of construction land, safeguard the requisition-compensation balance of construction land in China, and realize sustainable development. But multiple risks arise from the process of construction land reduction. In that case, identifying and analyzing the key risks of CLR is the prerequisite for formulating practical policy guidelines. This study is conducted to identify the risk factors of CLR and analyze these risks based on expert opinion. Initially, the original risk factors are sourced from existing literature. In order to tailor them to China's specific context, the Delphi method is employed to systematically refine risk definitions, consolidate similar risk elements, and identify any previously unrecognized risks in the literature. Following an in-depth review of the literature, we create a contextual relationship-based model employing an integrated technique of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) analysis. Based on the ISM and MICMAC analysis, five key risks were identified, and the prevention strategies and policy recommendations for CLR project risks are put forward.

Projections of Land Use Change and Water Supply–Demand Assessment Based on Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Case Study of Guizhou Province, China

Land use change and water supply–demand assessment are critical to achieving regional sustainable development and improving human wellbeing. In the context of complex climate change and socioeconomic development, there is an urgent need for systematic assessment and forecasting studies on how to combine physical, geographical, and socioeconomic factors to clarify patterns of change in the land use change and water supply–demand, as well as to respond appropriately to different climate and socioeconomic development scenarios in the future. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, a framework for simulating future land use change and assessing water supply–demand in the coupled SD-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed. The land use change in Guizhou Province from 2020 to 2050 was simulated using the SD-PLUS model, and the water supply–demand conditions were projected for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under multiple scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The research results indicated that (1) The land use change in the study area has significant spatial heterogeneity. It showed similar trends in the land use change in the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, with both artificial surfaces and forest showing an expansion trend, but the expansion of forest was most typical in the southwestern region in the SSP126 scenario, and there is a significant increase in the northeastern region in the SSP245 scenario. Additionally, there is a rapid expansion of artificial surfaces in the central region in the SSP585 scenario, and a more rapid expansion of cultivated land in the southeastern region, with a significant increase in the area of water bodies. (2) The changes in water supply from 2020 to 2050 under the three scenarios show a smaller increase (5.22–11.88%), a significant increase in water demand (29.45–58.84%), and an increase in the area of water shortage by about 2708.94–9084.40 km2, with the extent of the shortage increasing by about 23.71–79.50%. (3) According to the results of the SSP-RCP scenario projections, socioeconomic development has a significant impact on the growth of water demand, and climate and land use change may exacerbate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water supply–demand in the karst region. The systematic study of land use change and water supply–demand in Guizhou can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of regional ecosystems and the rational allocation of land and water resources.

Spatial Analysis of the Growth of the Bengawan Solo Delta, Gresik Regency, East Java Province, Indonesia 1995-2023

The objective of this research is to conduct a spatial analysis of the development of the Bengawan Solo River Delta, Gresik Regency, East Java Province from 1995 - 2023. This research method uses both re-mote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), such as supervised classification and overlay techniques, kappa accuracy, and direct field verification (ground check). The results of this research indicate that deltaic growth has occurred in the Bengawan Solo delta region. This is demonstrated by the increasing amount of land advancing towards the sea, also known as oloran land. Analysis was done from 1995 - 2000, 2000 - 2005, 2005 - 2010, 2010 - 2015, and 2015 - 2023 to find the development rate of this difference. Quite high growth occurred in the range of 1995 - 2000 which was an area of 472.33 ha. and in 2010 - 2015 which was an area of 423.48 ha. While the range of 2000 - 2005 is an area of 253.82 ha. and 2015 - 2020 which is an area of 259.94 ha experienced growth of no more than the growth in 1995 - 2000 and in 2010 - 2015. This area experienced land erosion from 2005 - 2010, with eroded soil spanning an area of -278.38 ha. Then it will grow once more from 2010 - 2023, totaling 517.63 hectares. The new land utilization of Delta Bengawan Solo is mostly grown from mangroves naturally and planting results (44%), some are used by the surrounding community for the expansion of land (33%), and some are still empty land (19%) as well as for other provision (1%).

Population-land spatial coupling in urban non-core region and environmental pollution: evidence from urbanization in China

Urban non-core region land exploitation and population immigration toward urban non-core areas, two fundamentals of urbanization in China, challenge the environment; however, the pollution effect remains unclear. Using prefecture-level data in China between 2003 and 2020, our study investigates the pollution effect of population-land spatial coupling in the urban non-core region. The empirical results demonstrate that excessive urban non-core region land expansion alone negatively impacts the environment. Meanwhile, outward spatial population distribution in a town, primarily measured by the relative proportion of the urban non-core region population size, directly aggravates environmental pollution on the one hand and indirectly improves the environment by alleviating the adverse effect of land-led urbanization. These findings remain robust under various regional heterogeneity analyses and still stand regardless of the investigated pollutants. The practical implications suggest that breaking through the population-land spatial coupling when the urban core region is small is advisable; meanwhile, efforts in maintaining the coupling, especially for areas with sizeable peripheral land exploitation, should be held.