Geographical Types and Driving Mechanisms of Rural Hollowing-Out in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Understanding the regional variations and mechanisms of rural hollowing-out in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is crucial to guiding regional rural revitalization. However, further quantitative evaluation and analysis are essential to address the issue of rural hollowing-out caused by the decrease in rural population and expansion of residential land in the YRB at different spatio-temporal scales. Based on China’s census data and residential areas extracted from remote sensing images, the rural hollowing-out in the YRB is classified into five types: smart development type (SDT), human–-land recession type (HRT), population loss type (PLT), land expansion type (LET), and human–land–vacant waste type (HLW). Then, the influential features shaping the spatial diversity of rural hollowing-out types are examined, and the feature importance values at different spatio-temporal scales are assessed using the XGBoost model. The results of rural hollowing-out in the YBR indicate that (1) the geographical types of rural hollowing-out in the YRB are dominated by the HRT type and show significant heterogeneity and distribution at different spatio-temporal scales. At different time stages, the number of counties dominated by HRT in lower reaches accounts for 57% of the total counties, whereas the number of counties in the middle reaches is only 37%. Compared to the rural hollowing-out results from 2000 to 2010, the number of counties dominated by PLT and HLW from 2010 to 2020 in the middle reaches increased by 19% and 16%, respectively. (2) Precipitation had a positive effect on the variability of the rural hollowing-out distribution results based on the feature importance values, whereas agricultural productivity had a negative effect and exhibited a decreasing trend. In the entire study area, economic non-agriculturalization had a negative impact, but the topographic relief was positively correlated with the rural hollowing-out results of regional areas, and the intensity of its effect showed an increased trend from 2000 to 2020. (3) The evaluation results in the entire study area show that the main functional type and the distance from provincial capitals are the most important factors affecting rural hollowing out. Compared to other factors, the level of non-agricultural economic development has a greater impact on the spatio-temporal differentiation of rural hollowing types in different Yellow River basins. Given the significant effect of non-agricultural economic development in the evaluation of regional rural hollowing-out, it can provide methodological and indicator references for the evaluation of rural hollowing-out in different regions.