Effect of watershed characteristics on river flow for the case of two watersheds, Megech and Gumaro, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Land degradation is a series of problems in Ethiopia’s highlands, particularly in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin reflected in the form of soil erosion and reduce soil fertility from time to time. The effect of watershed characteristics on the river flow of those watersheds was evaluated by distributing a physically based hydrological model known as the soil and water assessment tool model. The model was calibrated for the river flow from 1992 to 2006 and validated for the period from 2007 to 2014. The performance of the model was evaluated based on performance rating criteria, coefficient of determination, and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency on monthly based value, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient was greater than 0.6 and 0.5 for all scenarios on both watersheds, respectively. The land-use land-cover change scenario, the climate characteristics, and the slope change scenario was developed, from those analyses, it was found that has been a substantial decrease or increase in forest land, shrubland, grassland, and expansion of agricultural land. The mean annual streamflow of 2010 LULC decreased by 1.44% for 2010 from 2003 LULC and 5.23% for 2018 from 2010. Because of reduced cultivated land from 2010 up to 2018 and increased grassland and plantation in the Megech watershed and 2010 LULC decreased by 0.9% for 2010 from 2003 LULC and 2.04% in 2018 from 2010. This distributed physically based hydrological model has been applied for the evaluation of physical catchment characteristics with significant differences which was Cropland for Megech and Gumaro watersheds which were 67.28% and 61.5%, respectively, for the 2003 LULC, 64.94% Megech, and 58.89% for Gumaro watershed for 2010LULC and 51.95% for Megech and 42.12% for Gumaro watershed, similarly, Eutric Cambisols were covering large areas for both watersheds.