Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Research Articles

Decoding nationalistic biases in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam research

ABSTRACT The Nile Basin, supporting 40% of Africa's population, faces a critical challenge in aligning developmental goals with water security needs. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) illustrates this dilemma: it promises substantial energy benefits for Ethiopia but raises downstream water scarcity concerns, particularly in Egypt. This study examines GERD-related research to understand how academic perspectives may influence regional tensions or foster collaboration. Through systematic analysis of 79 articles published between 2011 and 2023, we utilized quantitative sentiment analysis to explore potential biases linked to researcher nationality, methodology, and co-authorship diversity. Findings reveal a statistically significant nationalistic bias, with Egyptian and Ethiopian researchers showing negative and positive sentiments, respectively, suggesting research can inadvertently shape polarized public and political stances on GERD. Importantly, studies with diverse co-authorship displayed reduced bias, underscoring the value of multi-national collaboration in mitigating partiality. Contrary to expectations, qualitative methods did not necessarily correlate with extreme positions, while quantitative methods appeared vulnerable to unintended bias. These insights highlight the need for critically assessing academic objectivity in transboundary resource issues, advocating for interdisciplinary and collaborative research to build mutual trust, which could potentially inform and improve regional diplomatic efforts.

Economic impacts of large dams on downstream brickmaking in developing countries

Large dams have positive and negative impacts, including disrupting brickmaking on the floodplains downstream due to flow regulation and sediment reduction, affecting the supply of essential construction material, notably in developing countries. In this study, we introduce an analytical framework to assess the economywide effects of large dams on downstream brickmaking, focusing on Traditional Fired Clay Brick (TFCB). The framework includes three steps: characterizing the impacts on river flow and sediment load using river system modeling and secondary data, understanding the role of TFCB production in the economy based on survey and economic data, and quantifying the economywide impacts of changes in TFCB production using dynamic computable general equilibrium modeling. We demonstrate the functionality of the approach by conducting a case study of the impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Sudanese economy due to changes in TFCB production by comparing two scenarios: “with GERD” and “no GERD.” Results show that Sudan’s accumulated (2023–2050) discounted (at 0.5% annually) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost would decline by US$ 6 billion (−0.38%) due to a reduction in TFCB production. Consumer flexibility regarding brick types and the ability of alternative brick sources to fill the demand gap are key determinants of the impacts.

Mega corruptions in mega projects: Debating the dynamics of dam construction in Ethiopia

Background This study critically examines the dynamics of corruption within Ethiopia’s dam construction projects, focusing on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD the Gilgel Gibe series, and Genale Dawa. The research highlights how weak management practices, insufficient oversight, and centralized decision-making, resulting in contribute to inflated costs, project delays, and compromised construction quality. A comprehensive understanding of these issues is crucial for addressing the challenges that impede Ethiopia’s infrastructure development. Methods A qualitative research approach was employed, integrating both primary and secondary data sources. The study utilized four theoretical frameworks—Principal-Agent Theory, Rent-Seeking Theory, Institutional Theory, and Neo-Patrimonialism—to analyze the structural and behavioral factors enabling corruption in Ethiopia’s dam construction projects. Results The study found that corruption is largely driven by weak management practices, insufficient oversight, and centralized decision-making. These factors contribute to inflated project costs, significant delays, and compromised construction quality. The lack of transparency and inadequate monitoring exacerbate these issues, leading to inefficient resource use and undermining the projects’ intended benefits. Economic impacts include increased public debt and strained financial resources. Socially, corruption erodes public trust and adversely affects the communities involved. The findings also highlight how information asymmetry and misaligned incentives contribute to corruption, with weak governance structures and informal networks further exacerbating the problem. These issues lead to cost overruns, increased debt, and diminished public confidence, which negatively impacts development outcomes. Conclusions While corruption in Ethiopia’s dam construction projects poses significant challenges, it is not insurmountable. Strengthening legal and regulatory frameworks, enhancing institutional capacity, promoting community participation, and leveraging international cooperation are crucial for mitigating these risks. Recommendations include implementing e-procurement systems, establishing independent oversight bodies, and promoting transparency to ensure these mega projects achieve their intended economic and social benefits.

Toward integrated dam assessment: evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

Abstract The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan’s Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.

Trends of forest cover and prospects of Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to Ethiopia and the downstream countries

The need for forest products, agricultural expansion, and dependency on biomass for the household energy source has largely influenced Ethiopia’s forest resources. Consequently, the country lost its forest resources to less than 6% until the millennium. In this study, quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis was employed to understand the socioeconomic benefits of large dam construction to Ethiopia and downstream countries. Moreover, remotely sensed data was also used to analyze the trends of vegetation cover change in the Nile catchment since the commencement of the dam; focusing on areas where there are high settlement and urban areas. It was identified that Ethiopia has one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita in Africa; about 91% of the source of household energy supply depends on fuelwood today and more than 55.7% of the population does not have access to electricity. The normalized difference vegetation index result shows an increment of vegetation area in the Nile catchment and a reduction of no vegetation area from 2011–2021 by 37.1%; which is directly related to the protection of the dam catchment for its sustainability in the last decade. The hydroelectric dam construction has prospects of multi-benefit to Ethiopia and downstream countries either through the direct benefit of hydropower energy production, related socioeconomic values, and reducing risks of destructive flood from Ethiopian highlands. Generally, it explains the reason why to not say ‘No’ to the reservoir as it is an ever more vital tool for fulfilling growing energy demand and supporting ecological stability.

The implications of further reservoir development on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia: trade-offs between hydropower, irrigation and transboundary water security

Abstract We evaluate the implications for Ethiopia and Egypt of two dams that could be built upstream of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in combination with hypothetical Ethiopian irrigation schemes upstream of these Blue Nile hydropower facilities. Two new dams could increase average annual hydropower on the Blue Nile River from Lake Tana to Khartoum and the Main Nile River from Khartoum to Aswan by almost 50% (30.2 TWh yr−1 to 44.7 TWh yr−1). A system-wide analysis of the expected financial benefits of various development scenarios reveals little financial justification for substantial irrigation withdrawals upstream of the GERD. Withdrawing 5 billion cubic meters annually upstream of the GERD without additional hydropower development would reduce total average annual hydropower generation on the Blue and Main Nile River by 10.9% (3.3 TWh yr−1). If two new dams were constructed upstream of the GERD, withdrawing this volume would cause a 15.2% (6.8 TWh yr−1) reduction. 1 and 5 bcm yr−1 of withdrawals upstream of the three dams would also affect water supply downstream, reducing average annual outflow from Sudan’s Merowe Reservoir by 1.1% (0.7 bcm yr−1) and 6.2% (4.1 bcm yr−1), respectively, and by <1% (0.2 bcm yr−1) and 3.3% (1.8 bcm yr−1) at Egypt’s High Aswan Dam (HAD) Reservoir, respectively. Whilst the annual probability of the HAD storage falling below 60 bcm and invoking its current drought management policy is estimated to currently be 0.085, these two scenarios of upstream withdrawals would increase that annual probability to 0.111 and 0.452 respectively.

Performance analysis of an SPD integrated with a stepped pyramid solar still: experimental study

AbstractWater scarcity poses a major challenge for the next generation. Additionally, increasing agricultural and industrial activities are creating an unprecedented demand for freshwater supplies throughout Egypt. The Nile River serves as Egypt’s primary water source, accounting for 69.4% of the total water resources. Moreover, Egypt's annual share of water has decreased to approximately 500 m3 per person because of the completion of the Renaissance dam in Ethiopia and the rapid increase in population growth. Solar distillation has been presented as a long-term and promising method for producing edible drinkable water. The present research goal is to increase the daily freshwater output from a stepped pyramid solar still (SPSS) by coupling with a solar parabolic dish (SPD). The proposed system consists of a conventional pyramid solar still (CPSS) and a modified pyramid solar still (MPSS). The main components of an MPSS include an SPSS, a PV panel, an SPD with a spiral coil, a circulating pump, and an Arduino Mega Unit. The developed system was designed, fabricated, and verified from July to August 2023 at the Faculty Engineering, South Valley University. The results of the experiments indicated that the daily productivity of freshwater from MPSS was greater than that from CPSS and reached 6038 and 2612 mL/day, respectively, with an increase in the daily yield of 131%. The peak energy efficiency is 56% for the MPSS and 24% for the CPSS. The peak exergy efficiency is 4.26% for the MPSS and 3.79% for the CPSS. Additionally, the cost analysis of the suggested system revealed that the estimated cost per liter of the proposed system is 0.01635 USD/L.

Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa: Arab Countries’ Stance on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with Special Focus on the GCC Position

The Horn of Africa holds a strategic position, bordering on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Nile region. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects three continents – Asia, Africa, and Europe-lie within its ambit. Over the past decade, external powers have begun to take a heightened interest in this region. Consequently, security issues in this strategically vital area have become increasingly salient, and local conflicts, famines, the proliferation of terrorist groups and maritime piracy have all found their way onto wider regional and international agendas. The current conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is of particular significance in this new scenario. This paper explores the position of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the general Arab stance on the dispute. It is worth noting that despite the considerable efforts made by Egyptian diplomacy to establish a unified Arab position on the Renaissance Dam issue, there are significant differences among Arab countries in regard to the issue. At the level of the GCC countries, the United Arab Emirates adopts a relatively flexible and neutral position, sometimes positioning itself as a mediator between the conflicting parties. Conversely, Kuwait maintains a firm stance in support of the Egyptian-Sudanese position, considering water security for Egypt and Sudan as a justifiable national security concern for the two countries. Saudi Arabia appears to be neutral in the conflict and emphasises that the African Union should play the primary role in resolving the issue. Even the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, have failed to adopt cohesive stances on the issue. At the Arab Summit held in Algeria on 2 November 2022, significant differences between Sudan and Egypt emerged in the working of the final document, even though they had been intent on welding wider Arab support behind their conflict with Ethiopia. This paper explores the nature of, and the reasons behind, the differences between GCC countries and the broader Arab community regarding the Renaissance Dam issue. Furthermore, it examines the potential for developing a unified yet flexible Arab Gulf position which could help to lay the basis for a balanced and fair agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the Renaissance Dam issue.

Waters of Contention: The GERD and Its Impact on Nile Basin Cooperation and Conflict

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has become a focal point in the fields of water diplomacy, economics, and environmental considerations in the Nile Basin. Announced during the Arab Spring in 2011, the GERD aims to address Ethiopia’s significant energy shortfall and foster regional economic growth by potentially doubling the country’s electricity output. However, this ambition has heightened tensions with downstream countries, especially Egypt and Sudan, which rely heavily on the Nile for their water needs. This paper examines the ongoing conflict surrounding the GERD, focusing on the deadlock situation despite considerable scholarly attention to its economic, political, and environmental dimensions. The analysis presented in this paper reveals the roots of contention by analyzing past treaties and the present negotiation status, illustrating the complex interplay between development goals, environmental sustainability, and regional water security. The paper advocates for a revised legal framework that moves beyond past agreements towards a more inclusive, cooperative management strategy for the Nile’s waters. It proposes the development of a new treaty between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, grounded in their 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement and inspired by successful international dispute resolutions. It also discusses the potential of neutral third-party interventions to facilitate unbiased negotiations grounded in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, emphasizing the importance of equitable and sustainable water governance. In essence, this research calls for a collaborative approach to resolve the GERD conflict, emphasizing the need for agreements that harmonize developmental ambitions with the water security of the Nile Basin nations. .

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water.

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

The Ethiopia-Egypt Controversy on the Renaissance Dam and the Role of a Benefit-Sharing Approach in the Nile Basin

Abstract The Nile River has been both an engine of development and a cause of controversy among its riparian states for millennia. This paradox took on an international dimension with the inception of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Using a qualitative research method, this paper investigates the GERD controversy and the role of a benefit-sharing approach in the Nile Basin. The dam negotiations have been hampered by unjust colonial treaties, the hardline interests of Egypt and Ethiopia, politicisation, uncertainty about the consequences of the dam’s use and lopsided third-party intervention. The paper argues that the adoption of a benefit-sharing approach in the basin can sustain the Nile ecosystem, promote regional peace, increase water flow and decrease unnecessary expenses through modest intraregional cooperation. The resolution of the Nile Basin conflict thus relies on identifying the potential of the basin and on integrated cooperative frameworks adopted by the technocrats of its riparian states and international experts.

GIS-based MCDM approach for landslide hazard zonation mapping in east Gojjam zone, central Ethiopia

Landslides are prevalent in the Ethiopian highlands, particularly in the east Gojjam zone, which is highly affected by landslide problems. This research was carried out in the east Gojjam zone, northwestern Ethiopia. The study area is part of an economically important area in the country, and it is the main source of water for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The main objective of this work was to undertake a detailed inventory of past landslide locations and prediction of present and future landslide hazards, as well as the preparation of a landslide zonation map in the East Gojjam zone by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the GIS technique. The parameters used for this study were slope degree, slope aspect, land use and land cover, road proximity, rainfall, lithology, altitude, and river proximity. The various causative parameters were collected from the field, and suitable modifications were made to the thematic maps. Finally, the ratings for various parameters were used as the basis to prepare the LHZ map in GIS windows. The landslide susceptibility and inventory mapping were produced in the GIS environment. The results of the study show that the main driving factors for the landslide hazards in the area were river proximity, rainfall, and manmade activities. Validation of this LHZ map revealed that more than 80% of past landslides match within the "high hazard zone" and reasonably accepted the rationality of the adopted methodology. The considered parameters, as well as their evaluation of the production of LHZ-Map, were confirmed. The produced landslide inventory map is very important for urban planners, agricultural studies, environmentalists, and future landslide hazardous prevention and mitigation strategies.

The Stalemate Over the Negotiation Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

The paper examines the challenges that encounter the negotiation process over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The project would make a huge contribution to Ethiopia’s economic development and energy demand, though Egypt and Sudan are concerned and seek a binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation. The dam has become a source of contention between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. To de-escalate the intensity and reach a final and comprehensive deal, the three countries have negotiated multiple times, though it usually ends in disagreement. Position, colonial era agreements, securitizing, and internationalizing the GERD have been obstructing the negotiation. The article suggests that since distributive negotiation neither benefits Ethiopia nor Egypt and Sudan, the talks should be concluded with integrative ends. The parties should also have political will and commitment to make the GERD a plat form for cooperation rather than conflict. Received: 13 March 2024 / Accepted: 30 April 2024 / Published: 5 May 2024

Surface water and geomorphological changes of the Blue Nile dynamics associated with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): a multi-temporal analysis

ABSTRACT The Blue Nile River is an indispensable source of livelihood for over 90 million people in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Recently, Ethiopia has constructed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest in Africa, which could potentially alter the geomorphology of the river regime, and impact downstream countries. This study offers the first comprehensive analysis of the geomorphological alterations and water surface coverage changes of the Blue Nile River due to the construction and operation of the GERD. For this, we use multi-temporal Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning the period from 2009 to 2022, supplemented with Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation products to discern the potential influence of climate variability on the observed changes. The findings are examined using the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) model, revealing significant fluctuations in the water surface coverage area across different sections of the river, particularly following the filling stages of the GERD. An analysis at every 10 km is performed to assess the extent of GERD’s influence on the Blue Nile, which indicates no notable alterations in surface area or geomorphology within the first 30 km of downstream river flow. The study also determines that changes from 2011 to 2018 are primarily associated with the upgrade activities of the Roseires Dam, while alterations along the Blue Nile from 2018 to 2019 are linked to climate variability. The observed changes between 2020 and 2022 can largely be attributed to the filling stages of the GERD. Notably, these changes are most pronounced in the water retaining areas upstream of the GERD dam. The results also show that Roseires Dam could play a crucial role as a buffer, mitigating potential impacts imposed by the GERD, and serving as a conduit between the GERD and downstream communities.

Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River’s downstream reservoirs

The Nile River Basin’s (NRB’s) water resources are vulnerable to hydrologic alteration projects. Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a hydroelectric power project on the Blue Nile, is expected to improve living standards in Ethiopia and contribute to the country's sustainable development. However, the effects of the GERD on water resources of downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt) have been a source of concern. In this study, eight types of remote sensing data and products were used to assess the impacts of the GERD reservoir’s filling process on Ethiopia’s, Sudan’s, and Egypt’s surface water resources. Specifically, spatiotemporal variability in surface area, volume, rainfall, and water storage for five reservoirs located in Ethiopia (GERD), Sudan (Roseires and Merowe), and Egypt (Lake Nasser and Toshka) for the period 2013–2022 were examined. Results indicate that (1) the GERD reservoir’s three filling phases started in July 2020, July 2021, and August 2022, respectively, (2) at the onset of these three phases, the GERD reservoir covered an area (volume) of 110 ± 7 km2 (1.87 ± 0.07 km3), 233 ± 31 km2 (4.30 ± 0.48 km3), and 544 ± 126 km2 (11.79 ± 2.18 km3), respectively, (3) a reduction in the GERD reservoir’s area (24–49 %) observed at the end of the first two fillings is attributed to enhanced infiltration and evaporation rates at the GERD site, (4) no significant changes were observed in the Roseires and Merowe reservoir’s surface areas, although both Nasser and Toshka reservoirs saw a slight increase in surface area during the investigated period, (5) the observed increase in water storage over the five reservoirs is attributed mainly to increased rainfall rates (6–10 %) and heavy flooding during the GERD filling period, and (6) if the GERD filling continues at the similar rates for an additional four years during drought periods, Egypt's Nile water allocation might be reduced by 35.47 ± 2.29 % (16.57 ± 1.07 km3), which could translate into an agricultural land loss of 33.14 ± 1.81 % each year. This study emphasizes the critical need for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to work together to effectively and equitably manage the water resources of the NRB.

Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries

The potential effects of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure on the downstream countries were numerically assessed. Flow discharge reaching Lake Nasser and the corresponding water levels were determined, and the inundated areas were defined as a result of GERD failure. High-resolution digital elevation model was developed with 2670-km length starting from GERD till Aswan High Dam. GERD’s reservoir, urban, and rural lands downstream of the GERD were presented using a numerical model. The modeled areas included parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, not to mention Toshka Spillway. The model areas were not divided into parts because of calculating the water levels at the existence of intermediate dams as model outputs. In case possible failure of GERD, Roseires and Sennar dams could collapse. Meanwhile, Merowe dam can sustain with the operation of its emergency spillway. Wave height reaches 100-m downstream of the GERD and 64-m and 31-m downstream of the Roseires and Merowe dams, respectively.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute: implications, negotiations, and mediations

ABSTRACT The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has created disputes between the Nile River's lower and upper riparian zones in North Africa. Ethiopia sees the GERD as a project to prosper, while Egypt considers that it will imperil the country’s economy. After the African Union (AU) failed to resolve the disputes over GERD, the matter reached to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which, after discussions, stated that the matter should be resolved at the regional level. This paper examines the theoretical and conceptual aspects of transboundary river waters and why riparian states shy away from cooperative arrangements. The paper then discusses the history of water disputes in the Nile Basin region and analyses the history of water distribution and projects in North and eastern Africa. Finally, the paper analyses the role of other countries, the AU, and the UNSC in disputes over the GERD project.

Comparative sentiment analysis of grand renaissance dam controversy in Egyptian and Ethiopian newspapers

Through a 3-year period of content analysis, this study compares predominant sentiments, stakeholder portrayal, framing techniques, and prevailing tone in Egyptian ‘Ahram Online’ and ‘The Reporter’ Ethiopian newspaper coverage of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) controversy. Despite the relatively extended, ongoing nature of GERD negotiations, throughout the last 3 years, 2020 – 2023, representing the time frame of the current study, the news coverage of both the Ethiopian and Egyptian media has portrayed the sentimental pillars of controversy in a contemporary manner.The results revealed that Ahram Online, the Egyptian newspaper, predominantly conveys a positive sentiment, echoing Egypt's focus on diplomacy and negotiation to resolve the Grand Renaissance Dam dispute, fostering an optimistic and cooperative tone. Conversely, 'The Reporter,' an Ethiopian newspaper, exhibits varying sentiments over time, with positive portrayals of Ethiopia's perspective on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and negative sentiments concerning external actors and evolving Egypt-Ethiopia tensions.Ahram Online portrays Egypt as advocating for its water rights and comprehensive agreements, emphasizing diplomacy and casting Egypt positively. 'The Reporter' presents Ethiopia as dedicated to its development, emphasizing the GERD's importance while critically covering external stakeholders.Both newspapers employ framing techniques. Ahram Online emphasizes cooperation, regional stability, and responsible water use, framing the GERD issue positively. 'The Reporter' highlights Ethiopia's historical challenges and the urgency of the GERD project while critically framing external actors.Al-Ahram's tone remains optimistic and cooperative, emphasizing diplomatic solutions. 'The Reporter' exhibits varying tones, including optimism, urgency, skepticism, and negativity, reflecting Ethiopia's perspective and concerns about external actors and evolving tensions.

The Dispute Over The Nile River Involving The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

This study examines the complex conflict over the Nile River, focusing on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its implications for regional socio-economic development. The research adopts a systems perspective to analyze the dynamics between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. It highlights the challenges of water management in the Nile River Basin, shared by eleven African countries, and delves into the geopolitical, environmental, and socio-economic factors at play. The research team, composed of Latin American scholars, acknowledges their outsider perspective and strives to incorporate a wide range of views. The findings discuss the historical treaties, current negotiations, and the importance of a balanced agreement that considers the interests of all parties, the threat of climate change, and sustainable water management practices. The study concludes with insights that could inform similar disputes in other transboundary river basins and underscores the urgency for cooperative solutions to prevent humanitarian crises. Keywords: Nile River, GERD, Causal Loops, System Perspective